Neil

Another Note on the Relative Impact of Offense vs. Defense on Scoring

May 8, 2013 History

Last week, Chase had a great post where he looked at what percentage of the points scored by a team in any given game is a function of the team, and what percentage is a function of the opponent. The answer, according to Chase’s method, was 58 percent for the offense and 42 percent for [...]

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Are the Super Bowl-Winning QBs Getting Worse?

February 4, 2013 History

Now that we live in a world where Joe Flacco and Eli Manning have quarterbacked 3 of the last 6 Super Bowl-winning teams, you might be tempted to think that winning a Super Bowl as a QB doesn’t mean what it used to. After all, the playoffs are getting more random — as Aaron Schatz [...]

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The Manning Index (and The Brady Effect)

January 23, 2013 Data Dump

Eight years ago — almost to the day — our old PFR colleague Doug Drinen wrote a Sabernomics post about “The Manning Index”, a metric designed to roughly gauge the clutchness (or chokeitude) of a given quarterback by looking at how he did relative to expectations (he revived this concept in version two, six years [...]

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Checkdowns: Pre-Conference Championship Sunday Weighted SRS Ratings

January 19, 2013 Checkdowns

Presented without comment, the most current Simple Ratings, weighted for recency: “Upper” and “Lower” are the 95% confidence intervals around each estimate. Roughly speaking, this means we can be 95% confident that, say, the 49ers’ “true” SRS rating is between 3.66 and 16.80. Tweet

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Data Dump: Schedule-Adjusted Pythagorean Ratings (1970-2012)

January 4, 2013 Data Dump

This is mostly a huge end-of-regular-season data dump, but I’ll explain a little before the table… PFR’s Simple Rating System can be broken into offensive and defensive components, which represent the number of points per game the team scored/allowed per game compared to the league average, after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses and [...]

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Checkdowns: Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt “FIP” for Quarterbacks

December 22, 2012 Checkdowns

I’ve been on a major QB kick lately, and there’s no reason to stop now. Today, I want to look at a method that might tease out a quarterback’s “true talent” better than if we simply use his raw stats from the season. Three years ago, our colleague Jason Lisk had a post on the [...]

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Checkdowns: Quarterback Yards Above Bench (QBYAB)

December 21, 2012 Checkdowns

After posting about SRS-style quarterback ratings on Monday, I was thinking about other things we can do with game-by-game data like that. In his QBGOAT series, Chase likes to compare QBs to the league average, which makes a lot of sense for all-time ratings — you want to reward guys who are at least above-average [...]

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Checkdowns: SRS-Style Quarterback Ratings

December 17, 2012 Checkdowns

Here’s a quick set of quarterback ratings I was messing around with, based on Doug’s Simple Rating System. The basic setup: I took every passer-game (Att > 0) since the 2010 season, weighting for recency according to Wayne Winston’s method. I ran the data through the SRS to adjust for the quality of opponent pass [...]

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Checkdowns: Vick’s Masterpiece vs. RGIII’s Payback Game

November 19, 2012 Checkdowns

On November 15, 2010, Michael Vick humiliated the Washington Redskins before a national television audience on Monday Night Football. The big news right before kickoff was that the ‘Skins had signed former Eagle QB Donovan McNabb to a five-year, $78 million contract extension, an ironic note that wouldn’t be lost on observers as McNabb’s replacement, [...]

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Checkdowns: Weighted NFL SRS Ratings (through Monday 11/05/12)

November 6, 2012 Checkdowns

Here’s my weekly set of power ratings, according to a weighted version of the Simple Rating System: KEY: Talent – Regressed WPct talent for 2012; Talent = (W + 5.5) / (G + 11) PWAG – Probability of Winning Any Game Off – Offensive SRS (positive = better) Def – Defensive SRS (negative = better) [...]

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