≡ Menu

Leader in Fu Manchus among active quarterbacks (sorry, Mark)

Leader in Fu Manchus among active quarterbacks (sorry, Mark).

Let’s be honest: we all know Aaron Rodgers is great, so we don’t spend much time talking about him. Debating his ability is pointless, so we instead spend countless hours discussing Tony Romo’s intangibles, Tim Tebow’s throwing motion, Colin Kaepernick’s tattoos, and Joe Flacco’s eliteness. Talk radio dies when it discusses Aaron Rodgers: debating the Packers quarterback is as fun as watching paint dry and as illuminating as asking if water is wet.

But we’re doing a disservice to us all when we ignore how great Rodgers is. I mean, we spend lots of time chronicling the feats of Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson — why not Rodgers?

One way to measure Rodgers’ greatness is to look at passer rating. Now we know that passer rating is wildly overrated, so perhaps you shouldn’t be too impressed to hear that Rodgers has the highest passer rating in history. But consider: Rodgers has a career 104.9 passer rating, well ahead of Steve Young, who is second at 96.8. Chad Pennington sits at #13 on the career passer rating list (an example of why this metric is one I don’t use), but Young is closer to Pennington (90.1) than he is to Rodgers. But there’s an even better way to show Rodgers’ dominance in this statistic.

Passer rating is made up of four metrics. Let’s take a look at how Rodgers ranks in those four categories:

Completion Percentage

Among active quarterbacks, Rodgers is the career leader in completion percentage (in the next four tables, the age is the player’s age at the end of the 2012 season):

Rank Player (age) Cmp% Years Teams
1. Aaron Rodgers (29) 65.7%  2005-2012 gnb
2. Drew Brees (33) 65.6%  2001-2012 2TM
3. Peyton Manning (36) 65.2%  1998-2012 2TM
4. Tony Romo (32) 64.7%  2004-2012 dal
5. Matt Schaub (31) 64.3%  2004-2012 2TM
6. Tom Brady (35) 63.7%  2000-2012 nwe
7. Philip Rivers (31) 63.6%  2004-2012 sdg
8. Ben Roethlisberger (30) 63.1%  2004-2012 pit
9. Matt Ryan (27) 62.7%  2008-2012 atl
10. Carson Palmer (33) 62.5%  2004-2012 2TM

Interception Rate

Rodgers is also the active leader in interception percentage, and it’s not particularly close.

Rank Player (age) Int% Years Teams
1. Aaron Rodgers (29) 1.7%  2005-2012 gnb
2. Tom Brady (35) 2.1%  2000-2012 nwe
3. Joe Flacco (27) 2.2%  2008-2012 rav
4. Sam Bradford (25) 2.3%  2010-2012 ram
Matt Ryan (27) 2.3%  2008-2012 atl
6. Jason Campbell (31) 2.4%  2006-2012 3TM
Shaun Hill (32) 2.4%  2005-2012 3TM
8. Matt Schaub (31) 2.5%  2004-2012 2TM
9. Kyle Orton (30) 2.6%  2005-2012 4TM
Philip Rivers (31) 2.6%  2004-2012 sdg

Rodgers is also the career leader in interception rate among all quarterbacks in football history.

Touchdown Percentage

What about touchdown rates? Rodgers has an death grip on the top spot in this statistic, too.

Rank Player (age) TD% Years Teams
1. Aaron Rodgers (29) 6.4%  2005-2012 gnb
2. Tom Brady (35) 5.6%  2000-2012 nwe
Peyton Manning (36) 5.6%  1998-2012 2TM
4. Tony Romo (32) 5.5%  2004-2012 dal
5. Philip Rivers (31) 5.3%  2004-2012 sdg
Drew Brees (33) 5.3%  2001-2012 2TM
7. Ben Roethlisberger (30) 5.1%  2004-2012 pit
8. Matt Ryan (27) 4.8%  2008-2012 atl
9. Eli Manning (31) 4.7%  2004-2012 nyg
10. Jay Cutler (29) 4.6%  2006-2012 2TM
Carson Palmer (33) 4.6%  2004-2012 2TM

Rodgers just barely makes the top ten on the career list of touchdowns per pass attempt, but everyone ahead of him started their career before 1960.

Yards per Attempt

The fourth and most useful metric involved in calculating passer rating is yards per attempt.  Guess who ranks first in this category among active passers?

Rank Player (age) Y/A Years Teams
1. Aaron Rodgers (29) 8.1  2005-2012 gnb
2. Tony Romo (32) 7.9  2004-2012 dal
Ben Roethlisberger (30) 7.9  2004-2012 pit
Cam Newton (23) 7.9  2011-2012 car
5. Philip Rivers (31) 7.8  2004-2012 sdg
Matt Schaub (31) 7.8  2004-2012 2TM
7. Peyton Manning (36) 7.6  1998-2012 2TM
8. Tom Brady (35) 7.5  2000-2012 nwe
Drew Brees (33) 7.5  2001-2012 2TM
10. Jay Cutler (29) 7.2  2006-2012 2TM
Matt Ryan (27) 7.2  2008-2012 atl
Carson Palmer (33) 7.2  2004-2012 2TM
13. Joe Flacco (27) 7.1  2008-2012 rav
Eli Manning (31) 7.1  2004-2012 nyg
15. Michael Vick (32) 7.0  2001-2012 2TM

On the career list, only Otto Graham (thanks to his AAFC numbers), Sid Luckman, and Norm Van Brocklin rank ahead of Rodgers.

So yeah, Aaron Rodgers is pretty good.  However, let’s call a spade a spade: we have stacked the deck in Rodgers’ favor by looking at career rate statistics. In addition to climbing the career lists because he’s operating in a passer-friendly era, Rodgers has three other advantages working in his favor relative to even his contemporaries:

  • He didn’t start his first game until he turned 25 years old; comparing his career rate numbers to quarterbacks who played when they were in their early twenties — and on the far left side of this curve — is a bit unfair.
  • Rodgers doesn’t turn 30 until December, so his career rate statistics exclude the far right side of the curve, too. Nearly Rodgers’ entire career has existed in the sweet spot on the quarterback age curve, from age 25 to 29.
  • There’s an important metric that is ignored by every stat we’ve mentioned so far: sack rate.  And as we all know, that’s been his Kryptonite to date: Rodgers has the seventh-worst career sack rate of any active quarterback, ahead of only David Carr, Charlie Batch, Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, and Tarvaris Jackson. If he had started at a younger age, he’d likely have an even worse career sack rate. As it stands, Rodgers has led the league in sacks taken in two of his five seasons as a starter.

Now, here’s the good news: there is a way to control for all four of these variables (era, missing out on early years, missing out on late years, sack rate) and to properly evaluate Rodgers.  If we use Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt as our statistic, we solve the last problem. And if we use ANY/A+ — the era-adjusted metric created by Pro-Football-Reference — we solve the first problem. And if we only look at quarterbacks during their ages 25 to 29 years, well, then we’ve solved them all.

So, drumroll please…. where does Rodgers rank in ANY/A+ for all passers since 1970 during his age 25-to-29 seasons? Let’s use a minimum of 50 starts and 1500 pass attempts, too:

”Click Show

Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams

{ 40 comments }