Examining Games with More than 15 Carries

by Chase Stuart on August 12, 2013

in Random Perspective On, Rushing, Statistics

Foster is thankful for a heavy workload.

Running back workload is a very difficult topic to tackle, and I don’t expect to make much of an indent into the subject today. But I do want to take a few minutes and look at some ways to measure heavy workloads. One school of thought is that the effect of carries is cumulative: Not only is a 25-carry game more likely to cause a running back trouble than a five-carry game, but it’s more than five times as likely to shorten a player’s shelf life. The cumulative effect of taking hit after hit means that carries 16, 17, and 18 hurt a runner more than carries 1, 2, and 3.

I don’t know if that’s true, but let’s investigate. First, I’m only giving a running back credit for his additional carries after his 15th carry of the game. So an 18-carry game goes down as a “3” and a 25 carry game is a “10.” Using this scoring system, Arian Foster had the highest number of “Carries over 15” from last season, with 117. Such a list mostly corresponds to the number of overall rushing attempts for a player, but the exceptions could be revealing.

Rk	Running Back	Team	Rsh	15+
1	Arian Foster	HOU	351	117
2	Adrian Peterson	MIN	348	108
3	Alfred Morris	WAS	335	99
4	Doug Martin	TAM	319	94
5	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	315	87
6	Jamaal Charles	KAN	285	77
7	Trent Richardson	CLE	267	64
8	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	CIN	278	62
9	Stevan Ridley	NWE	290	60
10	Shonn Greene	NYJ	276	55
11	Darren McFadden	OAK	216	54
12	Chris Johnson	TEN	276	54
13	Steven Jackson	STL	257	49
14	Ray Rice	BAL	257	48
15	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	221	46
16	Matt Forte	CHI	248	42
17	Frank Gore	SFO	258	41
18	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	139	40
19	Ryan Mathews	SDG	184	32
20	Vick Ballard	IND	211	31
21	LeSean McCoy	PHI	200	30
22	Willis McGahee	DEN	167	30
23	Reggie Bush	MIA	227	27
24	C.J. Spiller	BUF	207	25
25	DeMarco Murray	DAL	161	24

Foster led the league in both carries and carries above fifteen. But Darren McFadden ranks pretty high on this list thanks to three games with 27+ carries. On the other hand, Stevan Ridley ranked 6th in carries, but he only had one game with more than 22 rushes. McFadden had a 27-carry game in week 6, a 19-carry game in week 7, and a 29-carry game in week 8; in week 9, he injured his ankle and missed a month. Ridley, on the other hand, seemed to be handled pretty well, and one might argue that sharing time with Shane Vereen is good for his long-term health.

We can also use this “Carries over 15” statistic to get a sense of how teams’ commitment to the running back-by-committee philosophy has waxed and waned over the years. I totaled the number of “Carries over 15” for the top ten leaders in that statistic every year since the merger. The values themselves ^[1]Note: I pro-rated all non-16 game seasons to 16-games. carry no intuitive meaning, but the relative shape of the curve tells us all we need to know:

Contrary to popular belief, RBBC was very high in the early ’70s, and the “stud running back era” peaked in the early part of last decade (this is the sort of thing Doug, Jason, Neil and I used to write about at the PFR Blog).

But over the last few years, RBBC has clearly impacted the league: there has been a significant decline in the number of over high-carry games by top running backs. The number of high-carry games simply isn’t what it was at its peak a decade ago. Foster appears to be an exception, although he can’t touch some of the old numbers (presented at the end of this post). Some have attributed Foster’s declining declining yards-per-carry average to his heavy workload, an idea I addressed here.

But do these high-carry games lead to injury? I looked at the 583 running backs since 1970 to record 200 carries for a team in one season, and then play again for that team in the following season. I thought maybe we’d find some injury evidence indicating that high-carry games lead to missed games the following season. The second-highest season (with a “Carries over 15” score of 172) belonged to Jamal Anderson in 1998, who played in just two games the next year. And three others in the top ten (Barry Foster ’92, Terrell Davis ’98, and Edgerrin James ’00) also missed significant time the next year.

But that’s misleading. For one, the rest of the top ten remained healthy the next year. In my sample of 583 backs, I broke them down into five groups: the 50 highest backs (in terms of carries over 15), the next 100, the middle set of 283 running backs, the next 100, and the 50 lowest backs. As you can see, it doesn’t seem like the workhorse backs were more likely to get hurt the following year.

Category	Car Ov 15	Rsh	N+1 G
Top 50	140	369	13.5
Next 100	103	320	13.3
Middle 283	64	264	13.6
Next 100	34	226	13.1
Bottom 50	19	212	12.5

Anyway, this is just one data point. I hope to look into the issue more over the next few months (or more likely, few years). Finally, I will close with a list of the single-season leaders in “Carries over 15.”

Rk	Running Back	Year	Team	Rsh	Car Over 15
1	Eddie George	2000	TEN	403	180
2	Larry Johnson	2006	KAN	416	176
3	Jamal Anderson	1998	ATL	410	172
4	James Wilder	1984	TAM	407	169
5	Eric Dickerson	1986	RAM	404	164
6	Gerald Riggs	1985	ATL	397	164
7	Earl Campbell	1980	HOU	373	161
8	Ricky Williams	2003	MIA	392	156
9	Barry Foster	1992	PIT	390	156
10	Christian Okoye	1989	KAN	370	155
11	Eric Dickerson	1983	RAM	390	154
12	Terrell Davis	1998	DEN	392	152
13	Edgerrin James	2000	IND	387	151
14	Jerome Bettis	1997	PIT	375	150
15	John Riggins	1983	WAS	375	150
16	Terrell Davis	1997	DEN	369	149
17	Emmitt Smith	1994	DAL	368	149
18	Eric Dickerson	1988	IND	388	148
19	Jamal Lewis	2003	BAL	387	147
20	Earl Campbell	1979	HOU	368	146
21	Ricky Williams	2002	MIA	383	145
22	Curtis Martin	1998	NYJ	369	144
23	Marcus Allen	1985	RAI	380	144
24	Walter Payton	1984	CHI	381	143
25	Curtis Martin	1999	NYJ	367	142
26	Eric Dickerson	1984	RAM	379	141
27	Curtis Martin	1995	NWE	368	140
28	George Rogers	1981	NOR	378	140
29	Edgerrin James	2005	IND	360	139
30	Charles White	1987	RAM	324	138
31	Michael Turner	2008	ATL	376	137
32	LaDainian Tomlinson	2002	SDG	372	137
33	Emmitt Smith	1995	DAL	377	137
34	Eddie George	1997	TEN	357	135
35	Larry Johnson	2005	KAN	336	134
36	Emmitt Smith	1991	DAL	365	134
37	John Riggins	1984	WAS	327	134
38	Curtis Martin	2004	NYJ	371	133
39	Emmitt Smith	1992	DAL	373	133
40	Gerald Riggs	1984	ATL	353	133
41	Walter Payton	1977	CHI	339	133
42	Clinton Portis	2004	WAS	343	132
43	Shaun Alexander	2005	SEA	370	131
44	Edgerrin James	1999	IND	369	129
45	James Wilder	1985	TAM	365	129
46	Walter Payton	1979	CHI	369	129
47	Jerome Bettis	2000	PIT	355	126
48	Ricky Watters	1996	PHI	353	126
49	Thurman Thomas	1993	BUF	355	125
50	Barry Sanders	1991	DET	342	125
51	Chris Johnson	2009	TEN	358	124
52	Stephen Davis	2001	WAS	356	124
53	Earl Campbell	1981	HOU	361	124
54	Adrian Peterson	2008	MIN	363	123
55	Clinton Portis	2005	WAS	352	123
56	Rodney Hampton	1994	NYG	327	123
57	O.J. Simpson	1973	BUF	332	123
58	Earl Campbell	1983	HOU	322	122
59	O.J. Simpson	1975	BUF	329	122
60	Corey Dillon	2004	NWE	345	121
61	Rudi Johnson	2004	CIN	361	121
62	Herschel Walker	1988	DAL	361	121
63	Gerald Riggs	1986	ATL	343	121
64	Tiki Barber	2005	NYG	357	120
65	Edgerrin James	2003	IND	310	120
66	Emmitt Smith	1999	DAL	329	120
67	Eric Dickerson	1987	2TM	283	120
68	Rodney Hampton	1993	NYG	292	119
69	Walter Payton	1981	CHI	339	119
70	Shaun Alexander	2004	SEA	353	118
71	Stephen Davis	2003	CAR	318	118
72	Joe Morris	1986	NYG	341	118
73	Arian Foster	2012	HOU	351	117
74	Ahman Green	2003	GNB	355	117
75	Mark van Eeghen	1977	OAK	324	117
76	Travis Henry	2003	BUF	331	116
77	Deuce McAllister	2003	NOR	351	115
78	Mike Anderson	2000	DEN	297	115
79	Cedric Benson	2009	CIN	301	114
80	Steven Jackson	2006	STL	346	114
81	LaDainian Tomlinson	2004	SDG	339	114
82	Edgerrin James	2004	IND	334	113
83	Fred Taylor	2003	JAX	345	113
84	Clinton Portis	2008	WAS	342	112
85	Eddie George	2002	TEN	343	112
86	Shaun Alexander	2001	SEA	309	112
87	Terrell Davis	1996	DEN	345	112
88	Willie Parker	2007	PIT	321	111
89	Edgerrin James	2006	ARI	337	111
90	Eddie George	1998	TEN	348	111
91	Terry Allen	1996	WAS	347	111
92	Dalton Hilliard	1989	NOR	344	111
93	Willie Parker	2006	PIT	337	110
94	LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	SDG	348	110
95	Stephen Davis	2000	WAS	332	110
96	Adrian Peterson	2012	MIN	348	108
97	Tony Dorsett	1981	DAL	342	108
98	Wilbert Montgomery	1979	PHI	338	108
99	Maurice Jones-Drew	2011	JAX	343	107
100	Rudi Johnson	2006	CIN	341	107

Seeing George atop the list is no surprise in light of one of the craziest stats I’ve ever come across: he had 519 carries during the 2000 calendar year.

Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams

References[+]

References
↑1	Note: I pro-rated all non-16 game seasons to 16-games.

Tagged as: Arian Foster, RPO 2013, Running backs, Texans

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