Are the Super Bowl-Winning QBs Getting Worse?

Now that we live in a world where Joe Flacco and Eli Manning have quarterbacked 3 of the last 6 Super Bowl-winning teams, you might be tempted to think that winning a Super Bowl as a QB doesn’t mean what it used to. After all, the playoffs are getting more random — as Aaron Schatz pointed out last night, four of the last six Super Bowl champs have finished the regular season with 10 or fewer wins. So it stands to reason that, as the championship teams themselves post less-remarkable seasons, so too would their quarterbacks not be the cream of the crop. And for all of his postseason brilliance, Flacco was just the league’s 17th-best quarterback during the regular season. Does his ascendancy, coming on the heels of Manning’s, signal a new trend?

To answer that question, I turned to a methodology I’ve used many times before. The basic premise is that, to put modern and historical quarterbacks on an even playing field (no pun intended), you must translate their stats into a common environment. To do this, you take the quarterback’s stats from a given season, pro-rate to 16 scheduled games, and multiply by the ratio of the league’s per-game average during the season in question to that of a common reference season. For instance, if I’m adjusting Terry Bradshaw’s 1977 passing yards to the 1991-2012 period, I would multiply his actual total of 2,523 by (16/14) to account for the shorter season that year, then multiply that by (225.1/162.2) to account for the change in the league’s passing environment, giving an adjusted total of 4,001 yards.

After doing that for every QB season since the merger, I then plugged the translated stats into a regression formula that predicts Football Outsiders’ Yards Above Replacement based on the QB’s box score stats (including the standard cmp/att/yds/td/int, plus sacks, fumbles, and rushing stats). This gives us Estimated Yards Above Replacement (eYAR) a measure of total value for each QB season, adjusted for schedule length and league passing conditions, which is perfect for historical analysis.

To get an idea of what we’re talking about, here are Flacco’s career translated stats and eYAR numbers:

Year	Age	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	SkYds	rush	rYd	rTD	Fmb	passYAR	rushYAR	eYAR
2008	23	16	253	436	2984	15	14	36	320	52	175	2	12	64.3	13.9	78.2
2009	24	16	301	493	3502	20	12	39	235	35	54	0	8	608.6	-11.6	597.0
2010	25	16	289	477	3451	23	10	42	299	44	83	1	10	614.3	-3.0	611.3
2011	26	16	296	524	3320	18	13	31	200	40	85	1	13	268.0	-12.1	255.9
2012	27	16	290	502	3493	20	11	35	230	33	21	3	11	544.0	-3.4	540.5

Total eYAR is simply the sum of passing and rushing eYAR.

Armed with this value metric, we can now evaluate the careers of each Super Bowl-winning quarterback who started their career after the merger. Here’s a massive table with all of their translated numbers and eYAR totals:

Player	Year	Age	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	SkYds	rush	rYd	rTD	Fmb	passYAR	rushYAR	eYAR	Career
Peyton Manning	1998	22	16	346	586	3808	25	27	20	101	15	62	0	3	437.2	24.3	461.5	20648.7
Peyton Manning	1999	23	16	333	518	4077	26	14	13	108	36	77	2	6	1421.4	16.0	1437.4	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2000	24	16	361	570	4474	34	15	19	129	37	116	1	5	1645.2	29.0	1674.2	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2001	25	16	346	551	4207	27	22	28	227	35	158	4	7	910.7	65.5	976.2	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2002	26	16	377	575	4166	26	19	23	147	38	144	2	6	1057.9	37.1	1095.0	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2003	27	16	388	578	4493	30	10	19	119	27	25	0	6	1770.6	-5.8	1764.8	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2004	28	16	341	511	4554	45	10	13	102	25	37	0	5	2310.4	13.4	2323.8	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2005	29	16	309	463	3866	29	11	17	82	33	45	0	5	1623.8	-3.0	1620.8	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2006	30	16	367	572	4514	32	9	14	89	23	35	4	2	1961.3	40.8	2002.1	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2007	31	16	321	508	3984	29	14	22	132	20	-5	3	6	1303.7	15.0	1318.7	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2008	32	16	365	565	4019	28	14	16	100	20	20	1	1	1361.5	15.4	1376.8	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2009	33	16	376	564	4362	31	16	11	80	19	-13	0	2	1659.5	-3.4	1656.1	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2010	34	16	426	662	4478	30	18	17	92	18	18	0	3	1290.9	6.4	1297.3	20648.7
Peyton Manning	2012	36	16	366	552	4263	33	13	21	139	23	6	0	2	1641.5	2.3	1643.8	20648.7
Brett Favre	1991	22	2	0	4	0	0	2	1	11	0	0	0	0	-104.6	0.3	-104.3	15116.7
Brett Favre	1992	23	15	340	517	3537	21	12	31	175	48	202	1	11	732.2	30.2	762.4	15116.7
Brett Favre	1993	24	16	331	533	3452	22	24	29	201	57	221	1	13	105.6	23.8	129.4	15116.7
Brett Favre	1994	25	16	361	569	3843	34	14	34	203	42	218	2	7	956.6	70.1	1026.7	15116.7
Brett Favre	1995	26	16	344	539	4217	36	13	34	219	39	189	3	8	1395.1	68.4	1463.5	15116.7
Brett Favre	1996	27	16	329	537	3950	40	12	40	243	48	141	2	11	1116.8	32.5	1149.3	15116.7
Brett Favre	1997	28	16	320	515	3969	36	17	22	150	57	187	1	7	1280.5	32.7	1313.2	15116.7
Brett Favre	1998	29	16	368	561	4290	30	23	35	207	39	133	1	8	944.5	27.4	971.9	15116.7
Brett Favre	1999	30	16	343	579	4033	22	21	32	207	28	150	0	9	527.2	30.0	557.3	15116.7
Brett Favre	2000	31	16	342	579	3865	21	16	31	232	27	108	0	9	556.8	14.3	571.0	15116.7
Brett Favre	2001	32	16	316	514	3993	33	14	21	148	38	56	1	15	1167.1	-15.2	1151.9	15116.7
Brett Favre	2002	33	16	328	536	3628	26	16	26	190	25	71	0	10	642.4	3.5	645.9	15116.7
Brett Favre	2003	34	16	315	481	3539	33	21	21	153	18	14	0	5	892.1	5.9	898.0	15116.7
Brett Favre	2004	35	16	351	556	4085	28	17	12	94	16	35	0	4	1259.5	11.0	1270.5	15116.7
Brett Favre	2005	36	16	377	620	4004	21	30	24	172	18	62	0	10	117.4	4.1	121.5	15116.7
Brett Favre	2006	37	16	347	629	3988	19	18	21	138	23	28	1	8	479.3	-5.5	473.8	15116.7
Brett Favre	2007	38	16	339	528	4098	26	15	16	99	29	12	0	9	1296.3	-23.1	1273.2	15116.7
Brett Favre	2008	39	16	338	532	3487	23	25	34	247	21	42	1	11	57.4	1.0	58.4	15116.7
Brett Favre	2009	40	16	347	525	4073	31	7	36	267	9	7	0	2	1493.4	21.9	1515.3	15116.7
Brett Favre	2010	41	13	205	349	2391	10	20	23	141	17	8	0	8	-113.2	-19.0	-132.2	15116.7
Joe Montana	1979	23	16	16	26	109	1	0	0	0	2	18	0	1	16.7	3.1	19.8	14558.9
Joe Montana	1980	24	15	199	293	1887	15	7	15	82	28	68	2	3	471.0	15.2	486.3	14558.9
Joe Montana	1981	25	16	349	507	3605	19	9	26	158	21	82	2	1	1126.2	37.4	1163.6	14558.9
Joe Montana	1982	26	16	413	642	4735	31	15	31	205	48	201	2	5	1461.5	53.2	1514.7	14558.9
Joe Montana	1983	27	16	361	540	3907	25	9	28	162	53	247	2	2	1341.3	65.8	1407.1	14558.9
Joe Montana	1984	28	16	300	444	3581	27	8	17	92	35	107	2	3	1535.1	32.2	1567.3	14558.9
Joe Montana	1985	29	15	333	504	3629	27	10	28	166	38	138	2	4	1157.4	46.1	1203.6	14558.9
Joe Montana	1986	30	8	207	312	2230	8	7	10	70	16	36	0	2	607.3	0.0	607.3	14558.9
Joe Montana	1987	31	14	312	434	3281	30	11	21	128	33	137	1	2	1262.6	44.8	1307.4	14558.9
Joe Montana	1988	32	14	269	414	3079	19	8	34	192	35	123	3	3	851.9	44.2	896.0	14558.9
Joe Montana	1989	33	13	294	396	3466	26	7	31	166	47	222	3	7	1433.3	63.1	1496.4	14558.9
Joe Montana	1990	34	15	368	567	4200	27	16	28	137	40	160	1	3	1262.3	42.5	1304.9	14558.9
Joe Montana	1992	36	1	17	23	138	2	0	1	7	3	29	0	0	77.2	9.1	86.3	14558.9
Joe Montana	1993	37	11	188	304	2241	15	7	12	62	25	66	0	1	756.9	9.7	766.6	14558.9
Joe Montana	1994	38	14	297	482	3250	16	9	21	142	18	18	0	7	741.3	-9.5	731.8	14558.9
Tom Brady	2000	23	1	1	3	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-5.7	0.0	-5.7	13540.2
Tom Brady	2001	24	15	266	416	2895	19	11	39	211	36	43	0	11	348.4	-23.5	324.9	13540.2
Tom Brady	2002	25	16	359	585	3733	27	14	31	192	42	107	1	11	633.8	4.5	638.3	13540.2
Tom Brady	2003	26	16	324	538	3811	24	12	35	244	41	60	1	13	728.8	-16.4	712.4	13540.2
Tom Brady	2004	27	16	292	488	3689	26	14	26	164	42	27	0	7	974.0	-25.1	949.0	13540.2
Tom Brady	2005	28	16	339	542	4240	27	15	26	190	27	89	1	4	1313.1	29.8	1342.9	13540.2
Tom Brady	2006	29	16	323	530	3623	25	12	26	180	48	98	0	12	748.9	-18.1	730.8	13540.2
Tom Brady	2007	30	16	379	571	4740	47	8	22	137	38	100	2	6	2287.7	39.9	2327.6	13540.2
Tom Brady	2008	31	1	7	11	76	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28.5	0.0	28.5	13540.2
Tom Brady	2009	32	16	355	558	4263	27	13	17	93	29	43	1	4	1495.4	6.4	1501.8	13540.2
Tom Brady	2010	33	16	306	479	3716	32	4	26	178	32	30	1	3	1583.7	8.6	1592.3	13540.2
Tom Brady	2011	34	16	380	591	4814	35	13	32	171	44	105	3	7	1785.2	33.1	1818.3	13540.2
Tom Brady	2012	35	16	367	603	4417	30	9	27	184	23	31	4	2	1537.3	41.8	1579.2	13540.2
Drew Brees	2001	22	1	15	27	225	1	0	2	12	2	18	0	2	53.5	1.6	55.1	12826.8
Drew Brees	2002	23	16	308	512	3257	17	16	24	182	38	126	1	2	436.0	25.8	461.8	12826.8
Drew Brees	2003	24	11	210	363	2220	11	15	23	199	21	80	0	5	-91.5	10.9	-80.6	12826.8
Drew Brees	2004	25	15	266	412	3157	25	7	18	133	52	82	2	7	1155.7	-3.8	1151.9	12826.8
Drew Brees	2005	26	16	327	511	3689	25	16	27	225	21	49	1	8	791.0	11.6	802.6	12826.8
Drew Brees	2006	27	16	361	569	4535	27	11	18	108	41	31	0	8	1662.5	-26.6	1635.9	12826.8
Drew Brees	2007	28	16	419	644	4362	26	18	17	116	23	53	1	9	1063.8	6.7	1070.5	12826.8
Drew Brees	2008	29	16	407	647	5091	36	19	15	107	22	-1	0	7	1761.3	-8.2	1753.2	12826.8
Drew Brees	2009	30	15	347	508	4253	32	11	21	146	22	32	2	11	1643.0	8.8	1651.8	12826.8
Drew Brees	2010	31	16	424	641	4402	30	23	26	188	18	-3	0	10	841.7	-13.0	828.7	12826.8
Drew Brees	2011	32	16	444	635	5036	42	15	24	156	21	83	1	1	2124.0	50.2	2174.2	12826.8
Drew Brees	2012	33	16	387	634	4737	38	22	26	193	15	5	1	6	1305.5	16.2	1321.7	12826.8
Steve Young	1985	24	5	79	141	929	3	6	17	107	36	210	1	3	-113.0	43.0	-70.0	12048.6
Steve Young	1986	25	14	211	369	2276	8	10	41	241	68	404	4	8	-165.4	105.3	-60.1	12048.6
Steve Young	1987	26	9	43	75	612	10	0	3	20	25	184	1	0	400.4	56.1	456.4	12048.6
Steve Young	1988	27	11	61	105	702	3	3	13	65	25	171	1	4	-10.3	38.4	28.1	12048.6
Steve Young	1989	28	10	69	94	985	8	2	11	70	36	123	2	2	427.5	25.0	452.5	12048.6
Steve Young	1990	29	6	44	68	455	2	0	8	37	15	157	0	1	110.0	42.9	152.9	12048.6
Steve Young	1991	30	11	195	295	2641	20	8	14	76	67	435	4	3	1157.5	128.4	1285.9	12048.6
Steve Young	1992	31	16	302	441	3798	29	6	26	128	77	548	4	8	1649.0	159.4	1808.4	12048.6
Steve Young	1993	32	16	327	472	4205	33	16	30	162	68	417	2	7	1570.6	113.4	1684.0	12048.6
Steve Young	1994	33	16	322	451	3929	36	10	34	176	57	317	7	4	1709.2	136.2	1845.4	12048.6
Steve Young	1995	34	11	286	422	3058	19	11	26	116	50	261	3	3	891.7	77.8	969.5	12048.6
Steve Young	1996	35	12	216	312	2441	14	6	34	161	51	321	4	3	716.0	106.9	822.9	12048.6
Steve Young	1997	36	15	254	357	3109	20	6	31	187	49	198	3	4	1179.2	56.8	1236.0	12048.6
Steve Young	1998	37	15	342	527	4247	35	12	44	217	69	454	6	9	1390.0	154.3	1544.3	12048.6
Steve Young	1999	38	3	45	82	440	3	4	7	58	11	60	0	2	-117.6	9.8	-107.7	12048.6
John Elway	1983	23	11	134	272	1662	7	11	24	157	24	127	1	4	-197.0	27.7	-169.2	10061.8
John Elway	1984	24	15	230	391	2563	17	12	19	106	50	216	1	11	326.4	24.0	350.4	10061.8
John Elway	1985	25	16	359	618	3865	22	18	30	207	46	228	0	5	479.0	45.4	524.4	10061.8
John Elway	1986	26	16	303	513	3475	19	10	28	172	48	244	1	6	752.0	52.2	804.3	10061.8
John Elway	1987	27	13	263	448	3435	18	10	19	112	62	295	4	2	1116.0	85.3	1201.3	10061.8
John Elway	1988	28	15	310	517	3418	18	16	30	204	49	217	1	6	445.0	40.7	485.7	10061.8
John Elway	1989	29	15	242	427	3003	18	15	33	249	46	239	3	7	284.8	64.5	349.3	10061.8
John Elway	1990	30	16	337	547	3755	15	14	42	279	50	255	3	7	517.5	68.2	585.6	10061.8
John Elway	1991	31	16	263	476	3414	15	11	47	295	56	267	6	11	319.8	82.5	402.3	10061.8
John Elway	1992	32	12	196	347	2457	11	15	33	229	34	96	2	11	-85.8	7.5	-78.3	10061.8
John Elway	1993	33	16	362	563	4212	29	10	38	296	43	157	0	7	1210.3	26.3	1236.6	10061.8
John Elway	1994	34	14	305	483	3455	16	10	51	327	57	254	4	11	448.9	64.7	513.5	10061.8
John Elway	1995	35	16	303	512	3794	25	14	23	182	41	184	1	9	954.1	35.4	989.5	10061.8
John Elway	1996	36	15	290	460	3371	26	13	26	196	49	258	4	6	889.7	86.6	976.3	10061.8
John Elway	1997	37	16	295	504	3730	28	11	30	173	49	217	1	10	974.7	40.2	1014.9	10061.8
John Elway	1998	38	13	223	363	2858	21	10	17	125	36	94	1	7	868.3	7.0	875.3	10061.8
Ken Stabler	1970	25	3	3	10	74	0	1	0	0	1	-4	0	1	-25.0	-4.8	-29.8	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1971	26	16	40	70	397	1	3	5	35	4	29	2	1	-64.6	21.8	-42.8	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1972	27	16	76	112	799	5	3	10	77	6	25	0	2	147.1	6.2	153.3	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1973	28	16	286	402	3224	20	9	38	241	19	90	0	4	932.7	29.7	962.5	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1974	29	16	285	441	3706	38	10	21	132	11	-2	1	3	1628.5	22.7	1651.2	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1975	30	16	264	402	3229	20	19	20	171	5	-4	0	3	712.6	6.6	719.2	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1976	31	14	315	418	4060	37	16	19	162	6	-2	1	4	1823.8	24.0	1847.8	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1977	32	15	292	442	3451	31	17	17	118	3	-3	0	3	1131.6	18.5	1150.1	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1978	33	16	328	505	3732	20	22	37	276	3	0	0	7	437.5	7.9	445.4	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1979	34	16	376	565	4089	29	17	33	227	13	-3	0	8	945.5	-1.6	943.9	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1980	35	16	330	491	3366	13	21	27	216	13	-19	0	6	289.4	-16.7	272.7	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1981	36	13	185	296	2011	14	14	29	208	9	-3	0	5	-13.2	-2.7	-15.9	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1982	37	14	227	351	2434	11	13	20	131	5	-7	0	5	285.2	-5.4	279.8	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1983	38	14	191	326	1987	9	14	15	115	8	-12	0	3	2.9	-8.7	-5.9	8188.8
Ken Stabler	1984	39	3	35	72	334	2	4	4	27	1	-1	0	1	-142.1	-0.5	-142.6	8188.8
Kurt Warner	1998	27	1	4	11	40	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-6.8	0.0	-6.8	7665.9
Kurt Warner	1999	28	16	327	485	4292	40	12	27	187	23	97	1	9	1786.4	37.1	1823.5	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2000	29	11	238	347	3476	22	17	19	113	18	17	0	4	1236.6	-0.7	1235.9	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2001	30	16	378	550	4919	37	21	36	228	28	61	0	9	1631.4	8.9	1640.4	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2002	31	7	139	214	1419	3	11	21	132	8	32	0	8	-249.4	-6.7	-256.1	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2003	32	2	39	66	384	1	1	6	42	1	0	0	6	-109.8	-11.6	-121.3	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2004	33	10	177	285	2053	6	4	38	198	13	29	1	12	67.5	-7.7	59.8	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2005	34	10	245	383	2799	12	9	23	160	13	28	0	9	511.8	-8.2	503.6	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2006	35	7	109	173	1414	6	5	14	107	13	3	0	10	155.0	-27.2	127.8	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2007	36	14	268	445	3370	25	17	21	149	17	15	1	12	667.3	-6.5	660.8	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2008	37	16	395	609	4603	31	16	30	211	18	-2	0	12	1250.1	-15.5	1234.6	7665.9
Kurt Warner	2009	38	15	324	507	3638	25	14	26	186	21	10	0	12	783.2	-19.4	763.8	7665.9
Terry Bradshaw	1970	22	15	134	304	2004	8	20	28	210	32	249	1	3	-447.7	71.3	-376.4	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1971	23	16	342	542	3344	18	17	41	271	52	245	5	6	164.7	82.3	247.0	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1972	24	16	254	467	2877	16	11	37	242	55	320	6	3	226.4	120.2	346.7	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1973	25	11	156	278	1910	15	14	27	172	30	129	3	2	42.1	50.1	92.1	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1974	26	9	107	211	1178	10	7	12	98	31	217	2	1	26.8	67.4	94.2	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1975	27	16	254	392	2890	23	7	33	245	31	186	2	5	772.9	68.5	841.4	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1976	28	11	149	276	1746	14	8	16	130	27	187	3	5	141.2	61.4	202.7	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1977	29	16	280	472	4001	26	16	28	197	26	153	3	9	1110.3	58.7	1168.9	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1978	30	16	286	458	3695	35	15	21	177	25	74	1	6	1264.7	25.8	1290.4	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1979	31	16	320	536	4212	29	19	23	157	17	69	0	8	1089.9	17.5	1107.4	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1980	32	15	246	456	3510	23	16	33	201	31	98	2	11	575.4	17.9	593.3	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1981	33	14	225	384	2920	22	11	17	127	33	140	2	5	843.2	38.1	881.4	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1982	34	16	247	445	3204	31	15	28	162	13	17	0	7	709.4	9.2	718.6	7278.4
Terry Bradshaw	1983	35	1	5	8	77	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	69.2	1.4	70.6	7278.4
Troy Aikman	1989	23	11	168	301	1722	9	15	18	130	36	295	0	5	-246.0	69.2	-176.8	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1990	24	15	259	435	2746	11	17	38	258	40	170	1	4	-98.7	35.2	-63.5	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1991	25	12	257	383	2890	13	10	33	217	16	5	1	4	606.8	2.8	609.6	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1992	26	16	340	519	3776	26	13	21	94	37	107	1	4	1252.3	24.2	1276.5	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1993	27	14	282	400	3240	17	6	25	154	31	128	0	6	1140.8	18.4	1159.2	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1994	28	14	232	353	2649	13	12	15	64	30	67	1	2	726.2	10.0	736.2	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1995	29	16	268	408	3157	15	7	14	90	21	33	1	5	1112.4	1.6	1113.9	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1996	30	15	299	459	3167	12	12	18	121	34	43	1	6	672.9	-12.2	660.8	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1997	31	16	307	520	3369	20	12	29	229	24	79	0	6	507.2	12.6	519.8	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1998	32	11	198	321	2373	12	5	8	54	22	69	2	3	823.1	21.0	844.1	7238.2
Troy Aikman	1999	33	14	264	430	2922	17	11	17	121	21	11	1	8	589.3	-10.7	578.6	7238.2
Troy Aikman	2000	34	11	158	262	1655	7	14	12	89	10	13	0	2	-18.5	-1.8	-20.3	7238.2
Aaron Rodgers	2005	22	3	9	16	67	0	1	3	28	2	7	0	2	-118.7	-3.1	-121.8	6751.5
Aaron Rodgers	2006	23	2	6	15	47	0	0	3	19	2	11	0	1	-72.7	0.3	-72.5	6751.5
Aaron Rodgers	2007	24	2	19	28	215	1	0	3	26	7	29	0	0	69.8	4.6	74.4	6751.5
Aaron Rodgers	2008	25	16	336	546	4055	29	15	39	268	56	201	3	11	887.8	46.2	933.9	6751.5
Aaron Rodgers	2009	26	16	335	535	4298	29	7	54	331	58	305	5	11	1238.7	96.5	1335.2	6751.5
Aaron Rodgers	2010	27	15	295	463	3737	25	11	32	196	65	351	4	4	1205.0	105.9	1310.9	6751.5
Aaron Rodgers	2011	28	15	325	485	4270	41	6	36	216	61	247	3	6	1961.0	74.1	2035.1	6751.5
Aaron Rodgers	2012	29	16	340	522	3930	35	9	52	297	55	252	2	6	1181.3	74.9	1256.2	6751.5
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	22	14	199	304	2619	16	11	30	216	55	139	1	2	675.0	13.7	688.7	5585.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2005	23	12	170	274	2460	18	9	23	130	31	69	3	2	813.6	28.8	842.4	5585.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2006	24	15	284	482	3606	19	24	47	288	31	94	2	5	219.6	30.3	249.8	5585.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2007	25	15	251	399	3110	30	11	50	370	36	207	2	9	573.2	69.8	643.0	5585.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2008	26	16	277	478	3315	18	17	52	329	34	98	2	16	-75.8	5.1	-70.7	5585.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2009	27	15	322	500	4195	25	12	54	376	40	79	2	7	1037.7	16.5	1054.3	5585.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2010	28	12	227	379	3049	15	5	33	223	34	173	2	7	823.8	48.3	872.1	5585.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2011	29	15	307	496	3749	19	15	40	266	32	67	0	11	608.9	-8.6	600.2	5585.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2012	30	13	260	425	2988	23	9	30	184	27	89	0	7	691.3	14.2	705.5	5585.3
Joe Theismann	1974	25	10	14	16	218	1	0	2	10	3	12	1	0	137.9	9.8	147.8	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1975	26	16	15	30	135	1	2	2	15	3	30	0	0	-81.2	9.7	-71.5	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1976	27	16	128	234	1537	11	9	22	137	15	83	1	2	43.2	31.8	75.0	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1977	28	16	145	274	1740	11	7	32	202	25	133	1	0	39.7	46.6	86.3	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1978	29	16	259	485	3287	16	13	42	311	29	141	1	6	224.3	37.4	261.7	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1979	30	16	288	448	3163	22	10	33	210	38	151	3	2	794.6	56.7	851.3	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1980	31	16	296	488	3114	17	12	31	231	25	155	2	5	388.0	58.2	446.2	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1981	32	16	329	515	3608	19	15	28	212	31	153	2	5	694.9	45.6	740.5	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1982	33	16	312	468	3684	24	12	46	276	50	255	0	5	941.2	58.4	999.5	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1983	34	16	300	481	3711	27	8	29	175	32	203	1	1	1360.0	72.3	1432.3	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1984	35	16	304	490	3345	23	10	38	228	56	286	1	6	705.4	65.6	771.0	5507.2
Joe Theismann	1985	36	11	183	307	1762	8	12	29	212	23	104	2	3	-265.3	32.4	-232.9	5507.2
Brad Johnson	1994	26	4	22	36	148	0	0	1	5	2	-2	0	0	2.3	-2.6	-0.3	5228.4
Brad Johnson	1995	27	5	24	34	260	0	2	2	18	9	-9	0	2	-16.7	-17.0	-33.7	5228.4
Brad Johnson	1996	28	12	197	307	2287	17	9	15	120	33	93	1	5	612.9	12.1	625.0	5228.4
Brad Johnson	1997	29	13	289	453	3116	21	12	23	139	34	139	0	4	738.4	27.0	765.4	5228.4
Brad Johnson	1998	30	4	69	103	761	7	5	4	28	12	15	0	1	191.9	-3.5	188.4	5228.4
Brad Johnson	1999	31	16	318	505	3948	24	12	27	164	26	33	2	12	1103.7	-0.7	1103.1	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2000	32	12	231	365	2540	11	15	19	147	22	58	1	5	293.5	7.1	300.6	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2001	33	16	343	563	3469	13	10	42	263	39	121	3	4	380.5	39.4	419.9	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2002	34	13	270	439	3024	21	6	21	122	13	29	0	8	860.4	0.8	861.1	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2003	35	16	362	582	4013	27	21	22	124	24	32	0	6	847.0	-1.9	845.2	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2004	36	4	66	106	674	3	3	8	56	5	22	0	2	23.6	2.6	26.2	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2005	37	15	187	301	1945	13	4	23	135	18	53	0	5	364.4	5.0	369.5	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2006	38	15	274	451	2823	9	15	29	206	29	79	1	9	-26.8	-0.5	-27.3	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2007	39	16	7	11	78	0	0	1	10	5	-5	0	0	17.9	-7.1	10.8	5228.4
Brad Johnson	2008	40	16	40	79	429	2	6	9	63	2	-1	0	1	-224.6	-0.9	-225.5	5228.4
Phil Simms	1979	25	12	166	301	1971	14	11	38	255	24	138	1	7	-136.8	36.1	-100.7	4960.0
Phil Simms	1980	26	13	218	432	2440	15	14	36	191	31	168	1	5	-197.7	43.9	-153.8	4960.0
Phil Simms	1981	27	10	193	328	2054	11	7	38	246	16	36	0	5	4.5	3.4	7.8	4960.0
Phil Simms	1983	29	2	8	14	130	0	1	3	25	0	0	0	0	-7.3	0.7	-6.6	4960.0
Phil Simms	1984	30	16	308	548	3989	21	14	43	290	38	147	0	6	669.0	26.6	695.6	4960.0
Phil Simms	1985	31	16	302	505	3804	22	15	41	267	34	119	0	12	576.2	7.0	583.2	4960.0
Phil Simms	1986	32	16	281	476	3477	21	18	39	265	40	68	1	7	439.2	0.2	439.3	4960.0
Phil Simms	1987	33	10	191	308	2396	16	8	33	182	13	43	0	3	552.2	16.0	568.2	4960.0
Phil Simms	1988	34	15	298	499	3470	22	9	53	349	30	141	0	6	527.3	37.1	564.5	4960.0
Phil Simms	1989	35	15	247	416	3013	14	12	37	204	30	138	1	7	403.7	28.8	432.4	4960.0
Phil Simms	1990	36	14	211	339	2432	15	4	19	93	21	60	1	6	747.2	10.1	757.3	4960.0
Phil Simms	1991	37	6	89	149	1042	9	4	15	76	9	44	1	4	167.0	16.8	183.8	4960.0
Phil Simms	1992	38	4	94	150	1000	6	3	9	56	6	17	0	0	247.2	6.6	253.8	4960.0
Phil Simms	1993	39	16	257	409	3175	17	9	36	219	27	32	0	6	744.6	-9.4	735.1	4960.0
Eli Manning	2004	23	9	96	203	1042	6	9	13	84	6	34	0	3	-285.6	7.0	-278.6	4565.1
Eli Manning	2005	24	16	298	569	3881	25	18	28	186	29	80	1	9	559.2	12.4	571.6	4565.1
Eli Manning	2006	25	16	305	536	3330	25	18	25	191	25	20	0	9	265.6	-14.1	251.5	4565.1
Eli Manning	2007	26	16	283	522	3290	22	20	29	232	29	70	1	13	-0.7	-2.7	-3.4	4565.1
Eli Manning	2008	27	16	285	488	3252	22	11	31	202	20	10	1	6	586.0	1.0	587.0	4565.1
Eli Manning	2009	28	16	303	503	3897	26	14	32	233	17	63	0	14	833.4	2.2	835.5	4565.1
Eli Manning	2010	29	16	321	525	3813	28	26	17	119	33	69	0	8	672.4	-1.5	670.9	4565.1
Eli Manning	2011	30	16	340	569	4537	26	17	28	197	36	14	1	11	1189.1	-22.5	1166.6	4565.1
Eli Manning	2012	31	16	294	507	3613	23	17	19	138	20	29	0	6	765.6	-1.6	764.0	4565.1
Mark Rypien	1988	26	9	129	217	1787	19	11	14	99	8	29	1	5	415.0	15.1	430.0	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1989	27	14	304	489	3709	22	11	15	90	25	55	1	12	1121.2	-4.6	1116.6	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1990	28	10	190	331	2204	16	11	6	30	15	4	0	2	559.6	-4.6	555.0	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1991	29	16	270	444	3740	32	10	7	57	15	6	1	8	1580.8	2.1	1582.9	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1992	30	16	303	526	3597	15	15	21	148	36	51	2	4	658.3	4.2	662.5	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1993	31	12	173	326	1582	5	10	16	88	9	4	4	6	-340.0	12.0	-328.0	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1994	32	6	59	125	687	4	3	2	12	7	4	0	2	43.4	-6.6	36.8	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1995	33	11	124	205	1384	9	8	11	61	9	10	0	1	212.6	1.5	214.1	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1996	34	1	10	13	77	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	46.3	0.8	47.0	4333.0
Mark Rypien	1997	35	5	20	39	277	0	2	1	8	1	1	0	0	9.8	-0.5	9.3	4333.0
Mark Rypien	2001	39	4	5	9	58	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	6.4	0.3	6.6	4333.0
Jim Plunkett	1971	24	16	266	477	3195	27	13	45	301	44	208	0	5	410.7	49.4	460.1	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1972	25	16	292	539	3348	11	23	49	393	34	213	1	5	-410.9	58.2	-352.7	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1973	26	16	338	581	4117	19	16	41	323	39	187	5	5	633.3	78.4	711.7	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1974	27	16	277	501	3688	28	19	25	163	28	156	2	4	798.6	60.1	858.7	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1975	28	6	55	126	803	4	6	14	75	3	6	1	2	-119.3	7.7	-111.6	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1976	29	14	204	349	2361	18	15	26	198	16	81	0	1	221.4	30.9	252.2	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1977	30	16	221	373	2685	14	12	32	203	24	64	1	2	405.0	20.6	425.6	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1979	32	4	9	17	101	1	1	2	7	2	15	0	0	-2.5	4.2	1.7	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1980	33	13	186	344	2417	18	12	36	234	24	125	2	7	123.3	38.7	162.1	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1981	34	9	105	186	1057	4	7	22	150	10	33	1	2	-234.2	11.3	-222.9	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1982	35	16	295	484	3687	26	20	35	261	24	10	0	5	643.3	-4.7	638.6	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1983	36	14	250	397	2933	19	14	36	262	23	68	0	5	435.6	13.0	448.6	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1984	37	8	116	204	1453	6	8	10	69	14	13	1	2	195.0	-0.8	194.2	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1985	38	3	78	105	798	3	2	10	68	5	11	0	5	101.6	-6.3	95.3	3980.1
Jim Plunkett	1986	39	10	144	256	1981	14	7	23	159	11	45	0	3	403.7	14.7	418.3	3980.1
Doug Williams	1978	23	10	101	242	1483	9	6	6	55	21	18	1	4	154.3	-9.8	144.5	3931.9
Doug Williams	1979	24	16	205	450	2769	20	19	7	46	29	99	1	2	281.0	29.4	310.3	3931.9
Doug Williams	1980	25	16	286	560	3570	20	12	23	159	50	327	3	6	591.4	98.2	689.6	3931.9
Doug Williams	1981	26	16	267	489	3603	19	11	18	110	41	181	3	7	966.5	50.6	1017.1	3931.9
Doug Williams	1982	27	16	318	570	3753	17	15	17	158	56	269	3	12	551.1	51.3	602.4	3931.9
Doug Williams	1986	31	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-4.4	0.0	-4.4	3931.9
Doug Williams	1987	32	5	95	156	1242	11	4	7	43	7	9	1	2	425.5	8.3	433.7	3931.9
Doug Williams	1988	33	11	241	396	2695	16	10	10	76	8	0	1	5	657.6	1.0	658.6	3931.9
Doug Williams	1989	34	4	55	96	576	1	2	2	8	1	-4	0	0	81.1	-1.2	79.9	3931.9
Jim McMahon	1982	23	14	233	390	2720	17	9	41	242	38	179	2	1	434.6	56.1	490.7	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1983	24	14	190	309	2182	11	10	36	192	48	267	2	3	218.8	69.3	288.0	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1984	25	9	91	147	1131	8	2	8	32	35	251	2	1	469.8	72.7	542.5	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1985	26	13	195	320	2376	15	9	21	84	43	227	2	3	644.1	64.5	708.5	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1986	27	6	83	153	992	5	6	5	30	20	144	1	1	111.2	40.9	152.1	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1987	28	7	147	229	1761	12	7	21	110	21	85	2	2	427.0	34.6	461.6	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1988	29	9	129	200	1390	6	6	13	68	24	97	3	5	196.9	31.9	228.8	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1989	30	12	191	327	2099	10	8	26	140	28	138	0	2	223.2	29.7	252.9	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1990	31	5	7	10	67	0	0	1	6	3	1	0	0	16.6	-2.6	14.0	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1991	32	12	203	328	2350	14	10	22	124	22	58	1	2	480.5	16.9	497.4	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1992	33	4	25	47	306	1	2	4	21	6	23	0	0	9.7	3.8	13.6	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1993	34	12	208	338	2057	10	8	23	105	32	98	0	4	237.3	6.6	243.8	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1994	35	3	23	42	217	1	3	3	25	6	35	0	1	-106.6	5.7	-100.9	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1995	36	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.8	0.0	2.8	3794.8
Jim McMahon	1996	37	5	3	4	40	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	1	5.7	-6.8	-1.1	3794.8
Jeff Hostetler	1988	27	16	18	30	252	1	2	5	27	5	-3	0	1	-5.8	-5.7	-11.5	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1989	28	16	22	40	289	3	2	6	31	10	69	2	2	3.3	28.0	31.3	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1990	29	16	54	95	654	3	1	9	34	39	188	2	3	119.7	37.5	157.2	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1991	30	12	194	301	2132	6	4	21	97	43	286	2	6	477.2	69.3	546.4	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1992	31	13	116	211	1343	9	3	22	124	35	175	3	5	128.9	50.7	179.6	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1993	32	15	245	428	3389	16	10	37	208	54	207	6	5	787.8	71.2	859.1	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1994	33	16	261	445	3300	20	16	45	250	46	172	2	10	359.6	35.5	395.2	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1995	34	11	165	270	1909	11	9	23	134	31	124	0	5	247.9	15.6	263.5	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1996	35	13	245	397	2581	23	13	32	183	36	185	1	4	376.1	54.0	430.1	2708.7
Jeff Hostetler	1997	36	6	83	144	923	5	10	9	44	14	28	0	3	-137.6	-4.6	-142.2	2708.7
Joe Flacco	2008	23	16	253	436	2984	15	14	36	320	52	175	2	12	64.3	13.9	78.2	2083.0
Joe Flacco	2009	24	16	301	493	3502	20	12	39	235	35	54	0	8	608.6	-11.6	597.0	2083.0
Joe Flacco	2010	25	16	289	477	3451	23	10	42	299	44	83	1	10	614.3	-3.0	611.3	2083.0
Joe Flacco	2011	26	16	296	524	3320	18	13	31	200	40	85	1	13	268.0	-12.1	255.9	2083.0
Joe Flacco	2012	27	16	290	502	3493	20	11	35	230	33	21	3	11	544.0	-3.4	540.5	2083.0
Trent Dilfer	1994	22	5	38	80	429	1	6	9	45	2	29	0	2	-256.1	7.5	-248.6	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	1995	23	16	214	392	2651	4	18	48	334	23	120	2	12	-544.3	22.2	-522.1	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	1996	24	16	270	476	2896	12	17	28	209	31	128	0	10	-114.8	8.4	-106.5	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	1997	25	16	228	387	2622	22	11	28	167	32	99	1	8	385.0	14.0	399.0	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	1998	26	16	239	437	2780	20	15	25	160	39	141	2	9	201.5	25.5	227.1	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	1999	27	10	147	237	1596	11	10	24	175	36	152	0	6	-21.0	18.9	-2.1	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	2000	28	11	136	226	1523	12	11	21	133	20	75	0	8	-48.3	3.2	-45.0	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	2001	29	6	74	123	1033	7	4	10	70	11	17	0	3	260.8	-3.9	256.9	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	2002	30	6	90	164	1172	4	6	7	36	10	26	0	2	165.5	-0.9	164.6	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	2003	31	5	4	8	33	1	1	1	9	2	-1	0	2	-71.6	-5.8	-77.4	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	2004	32	5	25	60	333	1	3	4	21	10	14	0	1	-89.5	-6.2	-95.7	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	2005	33	11	202	340	2394	12	13	23	140	20	46	0	9	182.0	-9.2	172.8	-514.0
Trent Dilfer	2007	35	7	108	216	1150	7	12	29	194	10	25	0	8	-630.5	-6.4	-636.9	-514.0

It’s true that Flacco’s career total of 2,083 eYAR is the second-worst by any quarterback in that sample, topping only Trent Dilfer, but that’s pretty misleading — Flacco is only 27 years old, so it’s not accurate to compare him to many QBs whose careers are over. A more appropriate measure would be to look at each QB’s career eYAR through the season in which they won the Super Bowl. Did more prestigious QBs win it all in the past?

Year	Winning QB	Age at time	eYAR at time
1974	Terry Bradshaw	26	403.6
1975	Terry Bradshaw	27	1245.0
1976	Ken Stabler	31	5261.3
1978	Terry Bradshaw	30	3907.0
1979	Terry Bradshaw	31	5014.5
1980	Jim Plunkett	33	2407.9
1981	Joe Montana	25	1669.7
1982	Joe Theismann	33	3536.8
1983	Jim Plunkett	36	3272.2
1984	Joe Montana	28	6158.7
1985	Jim McMahon	26	2029.8
1986	Phil Simms	32	1464.8
1987	Doug Williams	32	3193.3
1988	Joe Montana	32	10173.0
1989	Joe Montana	33	11669.4
1990	Jeff Hostetler	29	177.0
1991	Mark Rypien	29	3684.6
1992	Troy Aikman	26	1645.8
1993	Troy Aikman	27	2805.0
1994	Steve Young	33	7583.5
1995	Troy Aikman	29	4655.2
1996	Brett Favre	27	4427.0
1997	John Elway	37	9186.4
1998	John Elway	38	10061.8
1999	Kurt Warner	28	1816.8
2000	Trent Dilfer	28	-298.3
2001	Tom Brady	24	319.3
2002	Brad Johnson	34	4229.5
2003	Tom Brady	26	1669.9
2004	Tom Brady	27	2618.9
2005	Ben Roethlisberger	23	1531.1
2006	Peyton Manning	30	13355.9
2007	Eli Manning	26	541.1
2008	Ben Roethlisberger	26	2353.2
2009	Drew Brees	30	8502.2
2010	Aaron Rodgers	27	3460.2
2011	Eli Manning	30	3801.1
2012	Joe Flacco	27	2083.0

Not really. The correlation coefficient between the year of the Super Bowl and the winning QB’s at-the-time eYAR is just 0.08, meaning there’s practically no trend (either positive or negative) in the Super Bowl winner’s eYAR over time. Here’s that data in graphical form:

As for Flacco, he has actually accomplished more through his first Super Bowl-winning season than the likes of Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady, and Troy Aikman, to name just a few. However, that’s also a bit misleading, since at 27 Flacco is at least a year older than any of the aforementioned QBs.

Another measure of Super Bowl QB quality, then, would be to look at actual career eYAR for retired QBs, but also project a career eYAR total for active QBs by looking at the career trajectories of comparable historical QBs at the same age. Doing that, we get this updated chart of Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks:

Year	Winning QB	Final Yr	Career eYAR
1974	Terry Bradshaw	1983	7278.4
1975	Terry Bradshaw	1983	7278.4
1976	Ken Stabler	1984	8188.8
1978	Terry Bradshaw	1983	7278.4
1979	Terry Bradshaw	1983	7278.4
1980	Jim Plunkett	1986	3980.1
1981	Joe Montana	1994	14558.9
1982	Joe Theismann	1985	5507.2
1983	Jim Plunkett	1986	3980.1
1984	Joe Montana	1994	14558.9
1985	Jim McMahon	1996	3794.8
1986	Phil Simms	1993	4960.0
1987	Doug Williams	1989	3931.9
1988	Joe Montana	1994	14558.9
1989	Joe Montana	1994	14558.9
1990	Jeff Hostetler	1997	2708.7
1991	Mark Rypien	2001	4333.0
1992	Troy Aikman	2000	7238.2
1993	Troy Aikman	2000	7238.2
1994	Steve Young	1999	12048.6
1995	Troy Aikman	2000	7238.2
1996	Brett Favre	2010	15116.7
1997	John Elway	1998	10061.8
1998	John Elway	1998	10061.8
1999	Kurt Warner	2009	7665.9
2000	Trent Dilfer	2007	-514.0
2001	Tom Brady	active	14289.1
2002	Brad Johnson	2008	5228.4
2003	Tom Brady	active	14289.1
2004	Tom Brady	active	14289.1
2005	Ben Roethlisberger	active	8268.1
2006	Peyton Manning	active	22624.8
2007	Eli Manning	active	6043.3
2008	Ben Roethlisberger	active	8268.1
2009	Drew Brees	active	15520.1
2010	Aaron Rodgers	active	10432.5
2011	Eli Manning	active	6043.3
2012	Joe Flacco	active	4899.4

This time, we see a slightly more significant correlation between the year and the career eYAR of the winning QB — but it’s positive (0.22), meaning as time has gone on, the quality of the winning QB has improved somewhat.

Flacco still projects to be near the bottom of Super Bowl-winning QBs, but he still figures to outpace Mark Rypien, Doug Williams, Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, Jim McMahon, and Trent Dilfer. In fact, Flacco’s projected career eYAR total is roughly the same as the man who called the game last night — Phil Simms. And it also bears mentioning that the career of Eli Manning, another similar QB, took off after a great postseason that culminated in a Super Bowl title. Who knows if a similar path is in Flacco’s future?

At any rate, it appears we aren’t in a Super QB downturn. Flacco and (Eli) Manning are not as marquee as the names that fueled the halcyon 1992-99 period, when one of Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Brett Favre, John Elway, or Kurt Warner won it all every year, but it’s hardly the darkest hour of Super Bowl quarterbacking. So, yes, we now live in a world where Joe Flacco and Eli Manning have quarterbacked 3 of the last 6 Super Bowl-winning teams… and it’s not appreciably different from the previous three decades.

{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }

Richie February 4, 2013 at 1:47 pm

Flacco and (Eli) Manning are not as marquee as the names that fueled the halcyon 1992-99 period, when one of Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Brett Favre, John Elway, or Kurt Warner won it all every year,

Wait – in the chart above aren’t you saying that Aikman and Warner were less accomplished than Flacco when they won their first?

I guess some differences are that Aikman was a #1 pick playing for Dallas. And that Warner had nearly the same career accomplishment as Flacco, but did it in one season.

I think when you have a QB who won a Super Bowl and has multiple seasons of consistent play (like Aikman or Montana) and they win a second Super Bowl, it makes them feel like “worthy” winners.

But most of the Super Bowl winning QB’s probably feel more “worthy” only in hindsight. I seem to recall that Favre was one of those guys who “couldn’t win the big game” until he actually did. And now, after tacking a HOF career (and another Super Bowl appearance) on top of his win, he feels like a much more worthy winner in hindsight.

Even guys like Bradshaw and Staubach probably owe a lot of their legends to the fact that they got to play pre-free agency & salary cap, so all their best players stayed on the team and they were able to stay on top for a decade. How many Super Bowls would Tom Brady have won if guys like Lawyer Milloy, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel Deion Branch, etc. didn’t get tossed aside due to cap issues?

Point being, I don’t think Super Bowl-Winning QB’s are getting worse. I think our perception of past winners increases with the hindsight of their future accomplishments.

Neil February 4, 2013 at 2:30 pm

Yes — it’s simultaneously true that Warner and Aikman ended up having higher career values than Flacco is likely to achieve, but also had achieved less than Flacco at the time of their 1st SB win. Warner’s career path — 7276 eYAR from age 28 onward — isn’t exactly reasonable to expect from anybody in the future. (If Flacco did that, he’d finish with roughly as much career value as John Elway.) And Aikman was a year younger than Flacco at the time of his 1st win; through age 27, Aikman had 800 more eYAR than Flacco. So my “marquee” names were based more off of career value than accomplishments through their 1st SB wins.

But I agree with you that SB winners aren’t getting worse, and that our perceptions of worthiness are built as much in hindsight as they are at the time.

Richie February 4, 2013 at 2:46 pm

Even some of the winning QB’s who are dismissed as “lesser” QB’s are guys who didn’t play much after they won (Plunkett, Dilfer, Brad Johnson).

RickD February 6, 2013 at 3:50 pm: The “lesser” QBs who didn’t play that much after they won did so because they were lesser. (Plunkett was old, too.)

Richie February 4, 2013 at 2:55 pm

Another thought:

Some of the recent Super Bowl winners:
Peyton Manning and Drew Brees – guys who were considered all-time greats BEFORE their wins.

Aaron Rodgers – I think was on his way to being considered great

I guess Roethlisberger is a little like Flacco. He won in his second season, and was kind of thought of as a game manager at the time. Then he won another, and developed more of a reputation as a guy who came through big in the playoffs. I think now, in hindsight, he is thought of as a “worthy” winner, but probably wasn’t when he won his first (especially since he won despite a poor performance).

TI February 4, 2013 at 3:56 pm

“The older we get, the better we were.”

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