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Data Dump: Schedule-Adjusted Pythagorean Ratings (1970-2012)

by Neil Paine on January 4, 2013

in Data Dump, History, SRS, Statgeekery

This is mostly a huge end-of-regular-season data dump, but I’ll explain a little before the table…

PFR’s Simple Rating System can be broken into offensive and defensive components, which represent the number of points per game the team scored/allowed per game compared to the league average, after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses and defenses faced. If you want to derive an expected winning percentage from that, you have to “back out” to total points scored/allowed again. To do that, you just add OSRS (or subtract DSRS) to the league’s average PPG, then multiply by the number of games the team played. This will give you adjusted points scored/allowed totals for the season.

To get that into a winning percentage-like form, you then need to plug those totals into the Pythagorean Formula. It usually takes the form of

(Pts Scored ^ x) / (Pts Scored ^ x + Pts Allowed ^ x)

where x was determined to be around 2.4 for the NFL in the 1990s, when current Houston Rockets (yep, basketball) GM Daryl Morey researched it for STATS, Inc. Last year, Football Outsiders decided to employ a “floating” exponent that varies with the scoring environment in which a team played, recognizing that a single point is more important to winning in lower-scoring environments. To that end, they used what’s known as the “Pythagenport” method of determining the exponent, which is

1.5 * log10((PF + PA) / G)

I was poking around in the data the other day, though, and found that the so-called “Pythagenpat” variant actually correlates slightly better with teams’ actual won-lost records since the NFL-AFL merger. That formula suggests for each team an exponent of

((PF + PA) / G) ^ 0.2466

This gives you a 1.204 RMSE vs. wins since 1970, a very slight improvement over the 1.205 RMSE you get using FO’s formula.

At any rate, I applied the Pythagenpat exponent to each team’s schedule-adjusted points scored/allowed totals since 1970, and tweaked the pythagorean win/loss totals up/down at the league-season level to match actual league-wide win/loss totals. The result was a definitive set of pythagorean ratings for every team since the merger:

Year
Tm
pfr_id
Division
G
W
L
T
WPct
Pts
PtsO
OSRS
DSRS
adj_PF
adj_PA
adj_Pyth
2012Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1661000.375344435-0.9-5.8349.84456.840.3331
2012Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East167900.438288317-5.52.9276.24317.640.4174
2012New England PatriotsnweAFC East1612400.75055733112.20.5559.44356.040.7747
2012New York JetsnyjAFC East1661000.375281375-5.1-0.9282.64378.440.3267
2012Baltimore RavensravAFC North1610600.6253983441.91.0394.64348.040.5819
2012Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North1610600.6253913201.20.9383.44349.640.5606
2012Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1651100.313302368-4.6-0.7290.64375.240.3467
2012Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North168800.500336314-2.82.1319.44330.440.4806
2012Houston TexanshtxAFC South1612400.7504163311.81.7393.04336.840.5993
2012Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1611500.688357387-1.9-2.8333.84408.840.3740
2012Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South1621400.125255444-8.1-4.9234.64442.440.1700
2012Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1661000.375330471-2.6-7.4322.64482.440.2595
2012Denver BroncosdenAFC West1613300.8134812896.33.8465.04303.240.7539
2012Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1621400.125211425-10.3-3.7199.44423.240.1368
2012Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1641200.250290443-4.6-6.2290.64463.240.2322
2012San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West167900.438350350-2.0-0.4332.24370.440.4329
2012Dallas CowboysdalNFC East168800.5003764001.4-1.2386.64383.240.5074
2012New York GiantsnygNFC East169700.5634293444.02.2428.24328.840.6662
2012Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1641200.250280444-5.3-3.6279.44421.640.2619
2012Washington RedskinswasNFC East1610600.6254363884.6-1.2437.84383.240.5887
2012Chicago BearschiNFC North1610600.6253752771.06.0380.24268.040.7066
2012Detroit LionsdetNFC North1641200.2503724372.1-4.4397.84434.440.4436
2012Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1611500.6884333364.92.4442.64325.640.6911
2012Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1610600.6253793481.61.8389.84335.240.5971
2012Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1613300.8134192992.04.5396.24292.040.6855
2012Carolina PantherscarNFC South167900.438357363-0.51.3356.24343.240.5252
2012New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South167900.4384614546.5-5.1468.24445.640.5351
2012Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South167900.4383893941.3-1.3385.04384.840.5020
2012Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West1651100.313250357-4.81.6287.44338.440.4022
2012San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1611410.7193972733.56.7420.24256.840.7772
2012Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1611500.6884122454.57.7436.24240.840.8186
2012St. Louis RamsramNFC West167810.469299348-2.12.4330.64325.640.5112
2011Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1661000.3753724341.2-4.5374.03426.930.4200
2011Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1661000.375329313-2.23.2319.63303.730.5374
2011New England PatriotsnweAFC East1613300.8135133429.4-0.1505.23356.530.7234
2011New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.5003773631.2-0.3374.03359.730.5310
2011Baltimore RavensravAFC North1612400.7503782662.63.5396.43298.930.6776
2011Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North169700.5633443230.7-0.2366.03358.130.5199
2011Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1641200.250218307-7.21.8239.63326.130.3284
2011Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1612400.750325227-0.86.0342.03258.930.6698
2011Houston TexanshtxAFC South1610600.6253812781.43.2377.23303.730.6393
2011Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1621400.125243430-6.0-5.3258.83439.730.2127
2011Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South1651100.313243329-7.11.4241.23332.530.3212
2011Tennessee TitansotiAFC South169700.563325317-2.21.2319.63335.730.4753
2011Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.500309390-3.6-1.7297.23382.130.3527
2011Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West167900.438212338-10.22.1191.63321.330.2347
2011Oakland RaidersraiAFC West168800.5003594330.2-5.1358.03436.530.3790
2011San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.5004063772.7-1.8398.03383.730.5298
2011Dallas CowboysdalNFC East168800.5003693470.70.9366.03340.530.5518
2011New York GiantsnygNFC East169700.5633944003.1-1.5404.43378.930.5484
2011Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East168800.5003963283.11.7404.43327.730.6377
2011Washington RedskinswasNFC East1651100.313288367-4.30.2286.03351.730.3804
2011Chicago BearschiNFC North168800.500353341-1.53.1330.83305.330.5555
2011Detroit LionsdetNFC North1610600.6254743876.9-0.8465.23367.730.6569
2011Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1615100.93856035911.5-0.1538.83356.530.7589
2011Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1631300.188340449-1.6-4.1329.23420.530.3530
2011Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1610600.6254023501.81.7383.63327.730.6050
2011Carolina PantherscarNFC South1661000.3754064292.6-3.9396.43417.330.4722
2011New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South1613300.81354733910.60.8524.43342.130.7642
2011Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South1641200.250287494-4.0-6.6290.83460.530.2397
2011Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West168800.500312348-1.7-0.5327.63362.930.4416
2011San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1613300.8133802291.76.6382.03249.330.7479
2011Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West167900.438321315-0.51.3346.83334.130.5295
2011St. Louis RamsramNFC West1621400.125193407-8.4-2.1220.43388.530.2053
2010Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1641200.250283425-1.5-3.1328.74402.040.3740
2010Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East167900.438273333-2.83.1307.94302.840.5106
2010New England PatriotsnweAFC East1614200.87551831312.62.8554.34307.640.8287
2010New York JetsnyjAFC East1611500.6883673042.24.2387.94285.240.6846
2010Baltimore RavensravAFC North1612400.7503572700.95.5367.14264.440.6929
2010Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North1641200.2503223950.4-1.9359.14382.840.4593
2010Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1651100.313271332-3.42.0298.34320.440.4565
2010Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1612400.7503752322.57.7392.74229.240.7908
2010Houston TexanshtxAFC South1661000.3753904271.8-3.7381.54411.640.4508
2010Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1610600.6254353883.7-0.9411.94366.840.5753
2010Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South168800.500353419-1.2-3.3333.54405.240.3777
2010Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1661000.375356339-0.91.9338.34322.040.5312
2010Denver BroncosdenAFC West1641200.250344471-1.1-7.8335.14477.240.2831
2010Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1610600.625366326-1.50.8328.74339.640.4799
2010Oakland RaidersraiAFC West168800.5004103712.3-2.2389.54387.640.5035
2010San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West169700.5634413223.21.6403.94326.840.6330
2010Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1661000.3753944362.5-4.7392.74427.640.4444
2010New York GiantsnygNFC East1610600.6253943471.70.4379.94346.040.5599
2010Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1610600.6254393775.4-1.2439.14371.640.6085
2010Washington RedskinswasNFC East1661000.375302377-3.4-0.5298.34360.440.3843
2010Chicago BearschiNFC North1611500.688334286-0.64.7343.14277.240.6288
2010Detroit LionsdetNFC North1661000.3753623692.4-0.5391.14360.440.5530
2010Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1610600.6253882403.17.9402.34226.040.8065
2010Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1661000.375281348-3.31.7299.94325.240.4505
2010Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1613300.8134142883.82.2413.54317.240.6641
2010Carolina PantherscarNFC South1621400.125196408-9.1-4.1207.14418.040.1505
2010New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South1611500.6883843071.50.8376.74339.640.5661
2010Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South1610600.625341318-1.00.4336.74346.040.4832
2010Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West1651100.313289434-5.6-7.1263.14466.040.1879
2010San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1661000.375305346-4.7-1.1277.54370.040.3285
2010Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West167900.438310407-3.9-5.5290.34440.440.2559
2010St. Louis RamsramNFC West167900.438289328-6.3-0.4251.94358.840.2960
2009Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1661000.375258326-4.52.7271.47300.270.4395
2009Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East167900.4383603902.9-1.2389.87362.670.5466
2009New England PatriotsnweAFC East1610600.6254272856.74.5450.67271.470.7853
2009New York JetsnyjAFC East169700.5633482361.17.5361.07223.470.7623
2009Baltimore RavensravAFC North169700.5633912612.64.9385.07265.070.7173
2009Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North1610600.625305291-2.53.2303.47292.270.5230
2009Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1651100.313245375-6.0-2.4247.47381.870.2549
2009Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North169700.5633683241.00.7359.47332.270.5497
2009Houston TexanshtxAFC South169700.5633883332.7-0.7386.67354.670.5554
2009Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1614200.8754163074.41.5413.87319.470.6604
2009Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South167900.438290380-3.8-2.6282.67385.070.3153
2009Tennessee TitansotiAFC South168800.5003544020.9-3.6357.87401.070.4268
2009Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.500326324-1.01.3327.47322.670.5092
2009Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1641200.250294424-2.5-5.9303.47437.870.2801
2009Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1651100.313197379-8.7-1.6204.27369.070.1932
2009San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1613300.8134543206.40.2445.87340.270.6696
2009Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1611500.6883612500.46.7349.87236.270.7220
2009New York GiantsnygNFC East168800.5004024274.6-4.5417.07415.470.5026
2009Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1611500.6884293375.80.2436.27340.270.6564
2009Washington RedskinswasNFC East1641200.250266336-5.51.0255.47327.470.3538
2009Chicago BearschiNFC North167900.438327375-1.9-2.0313.07375.470.3871
2009Detroit LionsdetNFC North1621400.125262494-5.2-9.2260.27490.670.1628
2009Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1611500.6884612976.31.1444.27325.870.6912
2009Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1612400.7504703126.60.6449.07333.870.6844
2009Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South169700.5633633252.72.3386.67306.670.6427
2009Carolina PantherscarNFC South168800.500315308-0.64.5333.87271.470.6241
2009New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South1613300.81351034111.2-0.5522.67351.470.7435
2009Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South1631300.188244400-4.6-1.1269.87361.070.3273
2009Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West1610600.6253753250.1-0.4345.07349.870.4913
2009San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West168800.500330281-2.93.0297.07295.470.5033
2009Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1651100.313280390-5.0-4.4263.47413.870.2429
2009St. Louis RamsramNFC West1611500.063175436-11.7-5.8156.27436.270.0758
2008Buffalo BillsbufAFC East167900.438336342-2.8-0.6307.67362.070.3972
2008Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.688345317-2.41.8314.07323.670.4794
2008New England PatriotsnweAFC East1611500.6884103092.31.6389.27326.870.6078
2008New York JetsnyjAFC East169700.5634053562.2-1.9387.67382.870.5062
2008Baltimore RavensravAFC North1611500.6883852444.25.6419.67262.870.7631
2008Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North1641110.281204364-6.9-0.1242.07354.070.2814
2008Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1641200.250232350-5.20.6269.27342.870.3539
2008Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1612400.7503472231.68.2378.07221.270.7854
2008Houston TexanshtxAFC South168800.5003663942.8-3.2397.27403.670.4876
2008Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1612400.7503772982.63.9394.07290.070.6823
2008Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South1651100.313302367-2.1-0.4318.87358.870.4242
2008Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1613300.8133752341.57.5376.47232.470.7635
2008Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.5003704480.7-6.5363.67456.470.3524
2008Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1621400.125291440-3.9-5.3290.07437.270.2569
2008Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1651100.313263388-6.5-1.0248.47368.470.2730
2008San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.5004393475.00.0432.47352.470.6285
2008Dallas CowboysdalNFC East169700.5633623651.7-1.2379.67371.670.5118
2008New York GiantsnygNFC East1612400.7504272945.52.8440.47307.670.7143
2008Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East169610.5944162894.73.2427.67301.270.7087
2008Washington RedskinswasNFC East168800.500265296-5.84.1259.67286.870.4389
2008Chicago BearschiNFC North169700.5633753501.11.0370.07336.470.5583
2008Detroit LionsdetNFC North1601600.000268517-4.0-9.1288.47498.070.1916
2008Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1661000.3754193804.1-1.2418.07371.670.5744
2008Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1610600.6253793331.12.9370.07306.070.6153
2008Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1611500.6883913251.32.5373.27312.470.6085
2008Carolina PantherscarNFC South1612400.7504143292.82.9397.27306.070.6580
2008New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South168800.5004633936.8-2.8461.27397.270.5965
2008Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South169700.563361323-0.62.9342.87306.070.5683
2008Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West169700.5634274264.1-6.0418.07448.470.4512
2008San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West167900.438339381-2.9-2.4306.07390.870.3478
2008Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1641200.250294392-4.9-2.8274.07397.270.2804
2008St. Louis RamsramNFC West1621400.125232465-8.1-7.0222.87464.470.1332
2007Buffalo BillsbufAFC East167900.438252354-5.61.5257.55322.950.3735
2007Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.063267437-4.1-4.2281.55414.150.2805
2007New England PatriotsnweAFC East1616001.00058927415.94.2601.55279.750.8940
2007New York JetsnyjAFC East1641200.250268355-4.00.3283.15342.150.3926
2007Baltimore RavensravAFC North1651100.313275384-5.0-1.8267.15375.750.3072
2007Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North167900.4383803851.6-4.0372.75410.950.4440
2007Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1610600.6254023822.2-3.3382.35399.750.4783
2007Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1610600.6253932690.94.3361.55278.150.6646
2007Houston TexanshtxAFC South168800.5003793842.5-2.5387.15386.950.5076
2007Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1613300.8134502626.65.4452.75260.550.8110
2007Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South1611500.6884113044.82.0423.95314.950.6897
2007Tennessee TitansotiAFC South1610600.625301297-2.93.6300.75289.350.5308
2007Denver BroncosdenAFC West167900.438320409-0.2-3.8343.95407.750.3991
2007Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1641200.250226335-7.41.9228.75316.550.3226
2007Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1641200.250283398-3.5-2.5291.15386.950.3355
2007San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1611500.6884122844.34.5415.95274.950.7476
2007Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1613300.8134553257.81.7471.95319.750.7421
2007New York GiantsnygNFC East1610600.6253733512.80.4391.95340.550.5966
2007Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East168800.5003363000.15.1348.75265.350.6692
2007Washington RedskinswasNFC East169700.5633343100.24.3350.35278.150.6462
2007Chicago BearschiNFC North167900.438334348-0.21.4343.95324.550.5437
2007Detroit LionsdetNFC North167900.4383464441.4-5.0369.55426.950.4138
2007Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North1613300.8134352915.73.3438.35294.150.7431
2007Minnesota VikingsminNFC North168800.5003653111.42.4369.55308.550.6190
2007Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South1641200.250259414-5.8-4.8254.35423.750.2239
2007Carolina PantherscarNFC South167900.438267347-5.7-0.1255.95348.550.3268
2007New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South167900.4383793881.9-4.5377.55418.950.4396
2007Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South169700.563334270-2.33.6310.35289.350.5500
2007Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West168800.5004043991.9-5.9377.55441.350.4057
2007San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1651100.313219364-9.9-2.0188.75378.950.1643
2007Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1610600.6253932910.80.9359.95332.550.5573
2007St. Louis RamsramNFC West1631300.188263438-6.5-6.5243.15450.950.1803
2006Buffalo BillsbufAFC East167900.438300311-0.22.4327.33292.080.5747
2006Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1661000.375260283-3.34.0277.73266.480.5296
2006New England PatriotsnweAFC East1612400.7503852374.35.9399.33236.080.7913
2006New York JetsnyjAFC East1610600.6253162950.41.7336.93303.280.5699
2006Baltimore RavensravAFC North1613300.8133532011.57.8354.53205.680.7922
2006Cincinnati BengalscinAFC North168800.5003733314.00.0394.53330.480.6165
2006Cleveland BrownscleAFC North1641200.250238356-4.5-1.3258.53351.280.3253
2006Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North168800.5003533153.00.4378.53324.080.6024
2006Houston TexanshtxAFC South1661000.375267366-3.2-1.3279.33351.280.3669
2006Indianapolis ColtscltAFC South1612400.7504273606.9-1.1440.93348.080.6548
2006Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC South168800.5003712742.64.9372.13252.080.7284
2006Tennessee TitansotiAFC South168800.5003244001.0-2.3346.53367.280.4680
2006Denver BroncosdenAFC West169700.563319305-0.82.1317.73296.880.5466
2006Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West169700.5633313150.40.6336.93320.880.5355
2006Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1621400.125168332-10.30.7165.73319.280.1843
2006San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1614200.87549230310.00.2490.53327.280.7491
2006Dallas CowboysdalNFC East169700.5634253505.0-1.3410.53351.280.6047
2006New York GiantsnygNFC East168800.5003553621.2-1.1349.73348.080.5080
2006Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1610600.6253983283.20.2381.73327.280.6017
2006Washington RedskinswasNFC East1651100.313307376-2.1-2.0296.93362.480.3828
2006Chicago BearschiNFC North1613300.8134272554.93.0408.93282.480.7233
2006Detroit LionsdetNFC North1631300.188305398-1.8-4.6301.73404.080.3273
2006Green Bay PackersgnbNFC North168800.500301366-2.3-2.1293.73364.080.3739
2006Minnesota VikingsminNFC North1661000.375282327-3.7-0.4271.33336.880.3754
2006Atlanta FalconsatlNFC South167900.438292328-2.8-0.2285.73333.680.4106
2006Carolina PantherscarNFC South168800.500270305-4.21.5263.33306.480.4145
2006New Orleans SaintsnorNFC South1610600.6254133224.9-0.9408.93344.880.6134
2006Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC South1641200.250211353-7.2-0.8215.33343.280.2510
2006Arizona CardinalscrdNFC West1651100.313314389-2.6-4.3288.93399.280.3112
2006San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West167900.438298412-3.5-5.2274.53413.680.2668
2006Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West169700.563335341-1.6-1.9304.93360.880.4009
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2003Detroit LionsdetNFC North1651100.313270379-4.3-1.6264.46358.960.3233
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2002Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC North1610510.6563903453.1-0.4396.43353.180.5746
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2002New York GiantsnygNFC East1610600.625320279-2.23.0311.63298.780.5264
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2000Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1610600.6254293267.10.8444.32318.030.7013
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2000Denver BroncosdenAFC West1611500.6884853697.8-2.7455.52374.030.6247
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2000Chicago BearschiNFC Central1651100.313216355-6.40.1228.32329.230.2907
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2000New York GiantsnygNFC East1612400.750328246-1.33.8309.92270.030.5799
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2000New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1610600.625354305-1.22.1311.52297.230.5259
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2000St. Louis RamsramNFC West1610600.62554047112.6-9.5532.32482.830.5646
1999Baltimore RavensravAFC Central168800.500324277-1.62.5307.43293.080.5251
1999Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1641200.250283460-3.3-8.2280.23464.280.2099
1999Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1621400.125217437-7.6-6.5211.43437.080.1367
1999Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC Central1614200.8753962171.35.1353.83251.480.6937
1999Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1661000.375317320-2.2-0.2297.83336.280.4213
1999Tennessee TitansotiAFC Central1613300.8133923242.0-1.0365.03349.080.5244
1999Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1611500.688320229-0.27.4329.83214.680.7319
1999Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1613300.8134233336.6-0.5438.63341.080.6543
1999Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East169700.5633263361.20.7352.23321.880.5524
1999New England PatriotsnweAFC East168800.500299284-1.03.2317.03281.880.5672
1999New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.5003083090.22.9336.23286.680.5930
1999Denver BroncosdenAFC West1661000.3753143181.02.4349.03294.680.5997
1999Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West169700.5633903225.51.3421.03312.280.6789
1999Oakland RaidersraiAFC West168800.5003903295.71.0424.23317.080.6751
1999San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.500269316-3.92.9270.63286.680.4614
1999Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West169700.5633382981.92.6363.43291.480.6303
1999Chicago BearschiNFC Central1661000.375272341-3.01.0285.03317.080.4312
1999Detroit LionsdetNFC Central168800.5003223230.11.8334.63304.280.5547
1999Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168800.5003573412.5-0.9373.03347.480.5412
1999Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1610600.6253993355.2-0.8416.23345.880.6137
1999Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1611500.688270235-4.16.7267.43225.880.5930
1999Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East1661000.375245382-5.5-3.2245.03384.280.2433
1999Dallas CowboysdalNFC East168800.500352276-0.33.4328.23278.680.5949
1999New York GiantsnygNFC East167900.438299358-1.8-1.2304.23352.280.4054
1999Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1651100.313272357-3.3-0.9280.23347.480.3661
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1999Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1651100.313285380-4.0-3.0269.03381.080.2916
1999Carolina PantherscarNFC West168800.5004213812.9-4.0379.43397.080.4664
1999New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1631300.188260434-5.3-6.9248.23443.480.1831
1999San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1641200.250295453-4.5-6.8261.03441.880.2038
1999St. Louis RamsramNFC West1613300.8135262428.73.2472.23281.880.7875
1998Baltimore RavensravAFC Central1661000.375269335-5.2-0.2257.35343.590.3389
1998Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1631300.188268452-4.5-6.5268.55444.390.2253
1998Jacksonville JaguarsjaxAFC Central1611500.6883923383.1-0.6390.15349.990.5780
1998Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central167900.438263303-5.11.3258.95319.590.3838
1998Tennessee OilersotiAFC Central168800.500330320-0.50.5332.55332.390.5088
1998Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1610600.6254003334.40.7410.95329.190.6475
1998Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1631300.188310444-0.1-5.3338.95425.190.3656
1998Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1610600.625321265-0.76.5329.35236.390.6983
1998New England PatriotsnweAFC East169700.5633373291.12.8358.15295.590.6261
1998New York JetsnyjAFC East1612400.7504162665.45.8426.95247.590.8060
1998Denver BroncosdenAFC West1614200.8755013099.5-0.6492.55349.990.7211
1998Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West167900.438327363-0.7-2.4329.35378.790.4204
1998Oakland RaidersraiAFC West168800.500288356-4.1-1.5274.95364.390.3405
1998San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1651100.313241342-7.7-0.7217.35351.590.2472
1998Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West168800.5003723100.90.6354.95330.790.5529
1998Chicago BearschiNFC Central1641200.250276368-3.4-0.3286.15345.190.3945
1998Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1651100.313306378-1.9-1.5310.15364.390.4085
1998Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1611500.6884083194.30.7409.35329.190.6451
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1996Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1651100.313302368-0.4-2.5320.38366.830.4146
1996Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1613300.8134562108.76.6465.98221.230.8673
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1995Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1611500.6884043143.52.5399.75303.640.6717
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1995Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East1641200.250275422-3.5-4.0287.75407.640.2963
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1995New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West167900.438319348-1.7-0.4316.55350.040.4410
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1995St. Louis RamsramNFC West167900.438309418-1.8-4.6314.95417.240.3307
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1994Detroit LionsdetNFC Central169700.5633573422.8-0.4368.96330.450.5728
1994Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central169700.5633822873.82.2384.96288.850.6764
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1994Arizona CardinalscrdNFC East168800.500235267-5.63.3234.56271.250.4189
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1994New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West167900.4383484071.0-4.6340.16397.650.4042
1994San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1613300.8135052969.91.7482.56296.850.7834
1993Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1631300.188187319-7.4-1.0180.78315.180.2164
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1993Houston OilersotiAFC Central1612400.7503682384.13.1364.78249.580.7193
1993Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central169700.5633082810.11.5300.78275.180.5552
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1993Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1641200.250189378-6.2-5.1199.98380.780.1750
1993Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East169700.5633493513.9-4.3361.58367.980.4903
1993New England PatriotsnweAFC East1651100.313238286-4.00.3235.18294.380.3716
1993New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.500270247-2.12.9265.58252.780.5307
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1993Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West1610600.6253063261.1-1.7316.78326.380.4830
1993San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West168800.5003222901.11.1316.78281.580.5730
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1993Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1651100.313237376-3.3-4.3246.38367.980.2732
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1993New York GiantsnygNFC East1611500.688288205-0.85.4286.38212.780.6684
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1993Phoenix CardinalscrdNFC East167900.4383262691.92.1329.58265.580.6303
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1993Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1661000.3753163850.8-5.2311.98382.380.3755
1993Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1651100.313221367-5.0-3.4219.18353.580.2411
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1993San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1610600.6254732959.9-0.3457.58303.980.7443
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1992Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East169700.563216302-6.0-1.0203.68315.740.2660
1992Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.6883402812.1-0.6333.28309.340.5499
1992New England PatriotsnweAFC East1621400.125205363-6.5-4.5195.68371.740.1792
1992New York JetsnyjAFC East1641200.250220315-6.0-0.9203.68314.140.2685
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1992Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1651100.313273332-0.7-1.1288.48317.340.4456
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1992Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1611500.6883742494.43.3370.08246.940.7339
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1992New York GiantsnygNFC East1661000.3753063671.6-3.4325.28354.140.4504
1992Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1611500.6883542454.84.1376.48234.140.7661
1992Phoenix CardinalscrdNFC East1641200.250243332-2.9-0.1253.28301.340.4011
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1992New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1612400.7503302020.77.1310.88186.140.7717
1992San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1614200.8754312367.34.5416.48227.740.8215
1991Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1631300.188263435-1.8-6.9275.04414.190.2645
1991Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1661000.375293298-0.70.4292.64297.390.4927
1991Houston OilersotiAFC Central1611500.6883862514.93.4382.24249.390.7446
1991Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central167900.438292344-0.8-2.2291.04338.990.4092
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1991Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East1611500.063143381-11.5-5.7119.84394.990.0594
1991Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East168800.5003433490.7-4.8315.04380.590.3849
1991New England PatriotsnweAFC East1661000.375211305-7.9-0.8177.44316.590.2085
1991New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.500314293-1.2-1.2284.64322.990.4256
1991Denver BroncosdenAFC West1612400.7503042350.33.1308.64254.190.6171
1991Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1610600.6253222521.84.5332.64231.790.7071
1991Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West169700.5632982970.31.1308.64286.190.5484
1991San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1641200.250274342-0.6-1.7294.24330.990.4303
1991Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West167900.438276261-1.52.7279.84260.590.5448
1991Chicago BearschiNFC Central1611500.688299269-1.22.0284.64271.790.5301
1991Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1612400.7503392950.90.0318.24303.790.5311
1991Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1641200.250273313-3.3-1.4251.04326.190.3491
1991Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central168800.500301306-0.2-1.8300.64332.590.4402
1991Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1631300.188199365-7.0-4.2191.84370.990.1723
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1991Phoenix CardinalscrdNFC East1641200.250196344-4.9-0.5225.44311.790.3187
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1991Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1610600.6253613384.7-1.3379.04324.590.5998
1991Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1631300.188234390-2.6-3.4262.24358.190.3193
1991New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1611500.6883412112.86.3348.64202.990.7874
1991San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1610600.6253932396.64.3409.44234.990.8016
1990Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central169700.5633603521.9-3.0352.42369.910.4632
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1990Houston OilersotiAFC Central169700.5634053074.90.3400.42317.110.6389
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1990Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1612400.7503362420.54.2330.02254.710.6465
1990New England PatriotsnweAFC East1611500.063181446-7.5-7.1202.02435.510.1236
1990New York JetsnyjAFC East1661000.375295345-2.0-2.6290.02363.510.3569
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1990Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West1612400.7503372682.24.4357.22251.510.6970
1990San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1661000.375315281-0.12.5320.42281.910.5719
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1990Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1661000.3753734134.2-5.9389.22416.310.4501
1990Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1661000.375271347-3.7-0.4262.82328.310.3619
1990Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1661000.3753513262.6-0.2363.62325.110.5645
1990Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1661000.375264367-4.0-3.2258.02373.110.2806
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1990New York GiantsnygNFC East1613300.8133352110.07.6322.02200.310.7484
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1990Phoenix CardinalscrdNFC East1651100.313268396-1.9-4.8291.62398.710.3060
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1989Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1610600.6253512750.24.1332.86264.230.6364
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1988Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1651100.313261350-1.9-2.2293.65359.190.3803
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1987Houston OilersotiAFC Central159600.6003453493.3-1.1373.46340.520.5616
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1987Indianapolis ColtscltAFC East159600.600300238-1.35.4304.46243.020.6356
1987Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East158700.5333623353.2-1.1371.96340.520.5590
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1987Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central155910.367255300-5.41.8242.96297.020.3829
1987Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central158700.533336335-0.2-2.6320.96363.020.4238
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1985Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168800.5003373550.10.1346.01342.920.5074
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1984Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1641110.281283408-2.9-3.4292.90393.760.3211
1984Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168800.5003903092.92.1385.70305.760.6427
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1983Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1612400.7503892502.65.2390.91266.110.7292
1983New England PatriotsnweAFC East168800.500274289-4.73.7274.11290.110.4717
1983New York JetsnyjAFC East167900.438313331-1.90.7318.91338.110.4694
1983Denver BroncosdenAFC West169700.563302327-4.11.3283.71328.510.4167
1983Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1661000.3753863671.70.3376.51344.510.5624
1983Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West1612400.7504423385.11.7430.91322.110.6855
1983San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1661000.3753584621.1-5.7366.91440.510.3879
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1983Chicago BearschiNFC Central168800.500311301-2.51.5309.31325.310.4746
1983Detroit LionsdetNFC Central169700.563347286-1.23.3330.11296.510.5717
1983Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168800.5004294395.2-7.1432.51462.910.4601
1983Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central168800.500316348-2.9-0.1302.91350.910.4150
1983Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1621400.125241380-7.5-1.6229.31374.910.2366
1983Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7504793608.6-0.1486.91350.910.7104
1983New York GiantsnygNFC East1631210.219267347-5.53.4261.31294.910.4338
1983Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1651100.313233322-6.73.6242.11291.710.3969
1983St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East168710.5313744282.5-3.6389.31406.910.4769
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1983Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West167900.4383703892.9-2.1395.71382.910.5272
1983Los Angeles RamsramNFC West169700.5633613442.00.9381.31334.910.5879
1983New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West168800.500319337-1.11.1331.71331.710.5058
1983San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1610600.6254322935.73.0440.51301.310.7326
1982Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central97200.7782321773.60.3213.86178.760.6166
1982Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central94500.444140182-4.91.6137.36167.060.3903
1982Houston OilersotiAFC Central91800.111136245-4.0-7.2145.46246.260.2132
1982Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central96300.6672041463.51.9212.96164.360.6620
1982Baltimore ColtscltAFC East90810.056113236-6.0-2.6127.46204.860.2443
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1982Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East97200.7781981312.75.8205.76129.260.7614
1982New England PatriotsnweAFC East95400.556143157-3.51.4149.96168.860.4338
1982New York JetsnyjAFC East96300.6672451668.91.8261.56165.260.7714
1982Denver BroncosdenAFC West92700.222148226-6.1-3.8126.56215.660.2178
1982Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West93600.333176184-1.81.7165.26166.160.5015
1982Los Angeles RaidersraiAFC West98100.8892602006.1-0.8236.36188.660.6466
1982San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West96300.66728822110.7-5.2277.76228.260.6343
1982Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West94500.444127147-7.52.0113.96163.460.3063
1982Chicago BearschiNFC Central93600.333141174-4.1-1.2144.56192.260.3374
1982Detroit LionsdetNFC Central94500.444181176-0.41.6177.86167.060.5432
1982Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central95310.6112261694.71.6223.76167.060.6819
1982Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central95400.5561871982.1-1.0200.36190.460.5369
1982Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central95400.556158178-0.51.2176.96170.660.5271
1982Dallas CowboysdalNFC East96300.6672261455.12.9227.36155.360.7279
1982New York GiantsnygNFC East94500.444164160-2.12.8162.56156.260.5286
1982Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East93600.3331911952.6-2.1204.86200.360.5190
1982St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East95400.556135170-4.11.4144.56168.860.4127
1982Washington RedskinswasNFC East98100.8891901282.25.1201.26135.560.7290
1982Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West95400.556183199-0.6-3.4176.06212.060.3893
1982Los Angeles RamsramNFC West92700.2222002500.8-8.0188.66253.460.3210
1982New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West94500.444129160-5.81.8129.26165.260.3636
1982San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West93600.3332092060.2-2.9183.26207.560.4266
1981Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1612400.7504213044.51.0402.73314.790.6482
1981Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1651100.313276375-4.1-2.4265.13369.190.3016
1981Houston OilersotiAFC Central167900.438281355-3.1-1.6281.13356.390.3529
1981Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central168800.5003562971.21.5349.93306.790.5774
1981Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1621400.125259533-3.8-12.0269.93522.790.1464
1981Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1610600.625311276-2.53.9290.73268.390.5438
1981Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611410.7193452750.12.8332.33285.990.5873
1981New England PatriotsnweAFC East1621400.125322370-0.6-3.1321.13380.390.3900
1981New York JetsnyjAFC East1610510.6563552870.21.7333.93303.590.5547
1981Denver BroncosdenAFC West1610600.625321289-1.62.9305.13284.390.5386
1981Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West169700.5633432900.42.8337.13285.990.5960
1981Oakland RaidersraiAFC West167900.438273343-3.60.0273.13330.790.3808
1981San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1610600.6254783909.2-4.7477.93405.990.6039
1981Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West1661000.375322388-0.1-3.2329.13381.990.4021
1981Chicago BearschiNFC Central1661000.375253324-4.41.5260.33306.790.3982
1981Detroit LionsdetNFC Central168800.5003973224.80.5407.53322.790.6411
1981Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168800.5003243610.7-2.3341.93367.590.4500
1981Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central167900.4383253690.0-2.1330.73364.390.4348
1981Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central169700.563315268-1.44.4308.33260.390.5964
1981Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7503672772.93.2377.13279.590.6746
1981New York GiantsnygNFC East169700.563295257-2.25.5295.53242.790.6108
1981Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1610600.6253682212.06.7362.73223.590.7601
1981St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East167900.4383154080.1-4.8332.33407.590.3675
1981Washington RedskinswasNFC East168800.5003473492.2-1.2365.93349.990.5243
1981Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West167900.4384263556.5-2.6434.73372.390.5963
1981Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1661000.375303351-1.4-1.0308.33346.790.4230
1981New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1641200.250207378-7.2-2.3215.53367.590.2108
1981San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1613300.8133572501.34.9351.53252.390.6883
1980Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1661000.375244312-4.50.8255.61314.810.3766
1980Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1611500.6883573101.70.1354.81326.010.5529
1980Houston OilersotiAFC Central1611500.688295251-2.74.4284.41257.210.5593
1980Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central169700.5633523132.4-0.1366.01329.210.5665
1980Baltimore ColtscltAFC East167900.4383553872.8-4.3372.41396.410.4593
1980Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1611500.688320260-1.65.5302.01239.610.6342
1980Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East168800.500266305-4.63.1254.01278.010.4464
1980New England PatriotsnweAFC East1610600.6254413256.8-0.3436.41332.410.6695
1980New York JetsnyjAFC East1641200.250302395-1.5-3.6303.61385.210.3536
1980Denver BroncosdenAFC West168800.500310323-1.11.6310.01302.010.5158
1980Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West168800.500319336-0.80.3314.81322.810.4842
1980Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1611500.6883643062.91.3374.01306.810.6221
1980San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1611500.6884183276.5-0.4431.61334.010.6602
1980Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West1641200.250291408-1.6-3.7302.01386.810.3482
1980Chicago BearschiNFC Central167900.438304264-1.22.6308.41286.010.5456
1980Detroit LionsdetNFC Central169700.563334272-0.82.5314.81287.610.5548
1980Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1651010.344231371-5.8-3.2234.81378.810.2356
1980Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central169700.5633173080.0-0.3327.61332.410.4906
1980Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1651010.344271341-3.5-1.6271.61353.210.3431
1980Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7504543117.80.1452.41326.010.7011
1980New York GiantsnygNFC East1641200.250249425-4.3-5.5258.81415.610.2327
1980Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1612400.7503842222.96.8374.01218.810.7866
1980St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1651100.313299350-1.7-0.7300.41338.810.4256
1980Washington RedskinswasNFC East1661000.375261293-4.43.3257.21274.810.4606
1980Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1612400.7504052724.53.4399.61273.210.7221
1980Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1611500.6884242894.42.1398.01294.010.6826
1980New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1611500.063291487-1.1-9.4310.01478.010.2435
1980San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1661000.375320415-1.2-5.1308.41409.210.3266
1979Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1641200.2503374213.1-4.4370.75391.320.4667
1979Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central169700.5633593522.90.1367.55319.320.5896
1979Houston OilersotiAFC Central1611500.6883623312.91.4367.55298.520.6292
1979Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1612400.7504162626.85.1429.95239.320.8149
1979Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1651100.313271351-2.0-1.5289.15344.920.3941
1979Buffalo BillsbufAFC East167900.438268279-3.33.1268.35271.320.4951
1979Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1610600.6253412570.34.0325.95256.920.6422
1979New England PatriotsnweAFC East169700.5634113266.1-1.1418.75338.520.6359
1979New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.5003373831.1-4.0338.75384.920.4206
1979Denver BroncosdenAFC West1610600.625289262-1.65.7295.55229.720.6464
1979Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West167900.438238262-4.05.4257.15234.520.5550
1979Oakland RaidersraiAFC West169700.5633653373.80.0381.95320.920.6105
1979San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1612400.7504112466.05.7417.15229.720.8170
1979Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West169700.5633783724.9-2.3399.55357.720.5727
1979Chicago BearschiNFC Central1610600.625306249-2.22.1285.95287.320.4988
1979Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1621400.125219365-6.6-4.4215.55391.320.1899
1979Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1651100.313246316-5.3-1.5236.35344.920.2873
1979Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central167900.438259337-4.5-3.1249.15370.520.2750
1979Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1610600.625273237-4.61.8247.55292.120.4044
1979Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1611500.6883713133.00.3369.15316.120.5983
1979New York GiantsnygNFC East1661000.375237323-5.4-0.8234.75333.720.3014
1979Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1611500.6883392820.32.4325.95282.520.5884
1979St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1651100.313307358-0.7-2.0309.95352.920.4211
1979Washington RedskinswasNFC East1610600.6253482950.91.5335.55296.920.5768
1979Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1661000.375300388-1.9-4.7290.75396.120.3157
1979Los Angeles RamsramNFC West169700.563323309-1.20.6301.95311.320.4829
1979New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West168800.5003703602.3-3.5357.95376.920.4685
1979San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1621400.125308416-1.3-6.1300.35418.520.3015
1978Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1641200.250252284-2.71.3250.06272.520.4499
1978Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central168800.5003343562.5-4.5333.26365.320.4425
1978Houston OilersotiAFC Central1610600.625283298-0.60.2283.66290.120.4869
1978Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1614200.8753561952.65.6334.86203.720.7660
1978Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1651100.313239421-2.8-6.0248.46389.320.2476
1978Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1651100.313302354-0.1-3.2291.66344.520.3987
1978Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1611500.6883722544.23.3360.46240.520.7295
1978New England PatriotsnweAFC East1611500.6883582863.61.4350.86270.920.6547
1978New York JetsnyjAFC East168800.5003593644.4-3.3363.66346.120.5320
1978Denver BroncosdenAFC West1610600.625282198-1.96.9262.86182.920.6955
1978Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1641200.250243327-3.0-1.4245.26315.720.3533
1978Oakland RaidersraiAFC West169700.5633112831.61.1318.86275.720.5882
1978San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West169700.5633553094.6-0.9366.86307.720.6093
1978Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West169700.5633453583.4-3.7347.66352.520.4917
1978Chicago BearschiNFC Central167900.438253274-2.70.3250.06288.520.4162
1978Detroit LionsdetNFC Central167900.438290300-0.1-1.7291.66320.520.4429
1978Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central168710.531249269-2.21.6258.06267.720.4788
1978Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central168710.5312943061.0-1.1309.26310.920.4972
1978Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1651100.313241259-4.10.8227.66280.520.3805
1978Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1612400.7503842085.85.2386.06210.120.8158
1978New York GiantsnygNFC East1661000.375264298-1.1-1.3275.66314.120.4217
1978Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East169700.563270250-1.13.4275.66238.920.5839
1978St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1661000.375248296-2.60.0251.66293.320.4101
1978Washington RedskinswasNFC East168800.500273283-1.10.7275.66282.120.4866
1978Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West169700.563240290-3.7-0.9234.06307.720.3430
1978Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1612400.7503162451.31.9314.06262.920.6065
1978New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West167900.438281298-0.5-1.2285.26312.520.4450
1978San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1621400.125219350-4.6-4.5219.66365.320.2257
1977Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central148600.5712382350.61.6248.86218.060.5811
1977Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central146800.4292692672.40.1274.06239.060.5856
1977Houston OilersotiAFC Central148600.5712992304.42.3302.06208.260.7148
1977Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central149500.6432832433.92.3295.06208.260.7023
1977Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1410400.7142952213.61.5290.86219.460.6679
1977Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1431100.214160313-4.3-3.7180.26292.260.2437
1977Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1410400.7143131974.43.5302.06191.460.7531
1977New England PatriotsnweAFC East149500.6432782172.51.5275.46219.460.6369
1977New York JetsnyjAFC East1431100.214191300-3.8-2.0187.26268.460.3027
1977Denver BroncosdenAFC West1412200.8572741481.99.4267.06108.860.8862
1977Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1421200.1432253490.9-5.8253.06321.660.3578
1977Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1411300.7863512308.81.6363.66218.060.7861
1977San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West147700.500222205-1.45.2220.86167.660.6548
1977Seattle SeahawksseaAFC West145900.3572823734.2-8.6299.26360.860.3846
1977Chicago BearschiNFC Central149500.6432552530.0-3.6240.46290.860.3888
1977Detroit LionsdetNFC Central146800.429183252-4.4-3.0178.86282.460.2565
1977Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1441000.286134219-9.10.4113.06234.860.1693
1977Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central149500.643231227-1.0-0.6226.46248.860.4473
1977Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamNFC Central1421200.143103223-11.10.385.06236.260.1020
1977Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1412200.8573452127.60.2346.86237.660.7242
1977New York GiantsnygNFC East145900.357181265-4.0-2.2184.46271.260.2903
1977Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East145900.357220207-2.51.9205.46213.860.4802
1977St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East147700.5002722872.6-4.0276.86296.460.4607
1977Washington RedskinswasNFC East149500.643196189-3.12.6197.06204.060.4834
1977Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West147700.500179129-6.16.6155.06148.060.5279
1977Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1410400.7143021463.84.6293.66176.060.7748
1977New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1431100.2142323360.3-9.4244.66372.060.2595
1977San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West145900.357220260-1.1-2.7225.06278.260.3778
1976Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1410400.7143352105.05.1338.14196.690.7840
1976Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central149500.6432672870.7-2.4277.94301.690.4419
1976Houston OilersotiAFC Central145900.357222273-2.71.0230.34254.090.4346
1976Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1410400.7143421385.79.6347.94133.690.9010
1976Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1411300.7864172469.30.4398.34262.490.7394
1976Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1421200.143245363-2.5-6.7233.14361.890.2413
1976Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East146800.429263264-1.81.7242.94244.290.4898
1976New England PatriotsnweAFC East1411300.7863762366.52.2359.14237.290.7330
1976New York JetsnyjAFC East1431100.214169383-7.1-6.8168.74363.290.1254
1976Denver BroncosdenAFC West149500.6433152062.54.4303.14206.490.7105
1976Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West145900.3572903762.2-6.9298.94364.690.3672
1976Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1413100.9293502376.32.2356.34237.290.7289
1976San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West146800.429248285-1.70.5244.34261.090.4531
1976Tampa Bay BuccaneerstamAFC West1401400.000125412-10.8-8.8116.94391.290.0439
1976Chicago BearschiNFC Central147700.5002532160.34.2272.34209.290.6456
1976Detroit LionsdetNFC Central146800.429262220-0.63.4259.74220.490.5898
1976Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central145900.357218299-2.5-2.0233.14296.090.3508
1976Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1411210.8213051763.75.7319.94188.290.7765
1976Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1411300.7862961940.54.0275.14212.090.6444
1976New York GiantsnygNFC East1431100.214170250-5.52.1191.14238.690.3667
1976Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1441000.286165286-7.3-1.4165.94287.690.2077
1976St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1410400.7143092673.5-1.0317.14282.090.5665
1976Washington RedskinswasNFC East1410400.7142912171.21.8284.94242.890.5896
1976Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1441000.286172312-6.7-3.5174.34317.090.1849
1976Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1410310.7503511905.94.5350.74205.090.7840
1976New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1441000.286253346-0.6-5.5259.74345.090.3207
1976San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West148600.571270190-1.35.0249.94198.090.6264
1976Seattle SeahawksseaNFC West1421200.143229429-2.2-12.9237.34448.690.1525
1975Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1411300.7863402464.02.9344.27247.560.6979
1975Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1431100.214218372-2.6-4.2251.87346.960.3097
1975Houston OilersotiAFC Central1410400.7142932261.25.2305.07215.360.7019
1975Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1412200.8573731625.48.8363.87164.960.8755
1975Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1410400.7143952696.32.2376.47257.360.7274
1975Buffalo BillsbufAFC East148600.57142035510.4-3.4433.87335.760.6671
1975Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1410400.7143572223.36.0334.47204.160.7725
1975New England PatriotsnweAFC East1431100.214258358-2.3-2.0256.07316.160.3729
1975New York JetsnyjAFC East1431100.214258433-1.2-7.1271.47387.560.2864
1975Denver BroncosdenAFC West146800.429254307-2.7-0.7250.47297.960.3959
1975Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West145900.357282341-0.6-3.7279.87339.960.3801
1975Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1411300.7863752555.51.3365.27269.960.6860
1975San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1421200.143189345-6.0-3.4204.27335.760.2289
1975Chicago BearschiNFC Central1441000.286191379-4.9-6.6219.67380.560.2012
1975Detroit LionsdetNFC Central147700.500245262-3.21.3243.47269.960.4391
1975Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1441000.286226285-3.3-0.9242.07300.760.3708
1975Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1412200.8573771803.55.4337.27212.560.7594
1975Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1410400.7143502684.00.1344.27286.760.6163
1975New York GiantsnygNFC East145900.357216306-6.2-0.6201.47296.560.2839
1975Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1441000.286225302-4.0-0.6232.27296.560.3562
1975St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1411300.7863562763.40.1335.87286.760.6009
1975Washington RedskinswasNFC East148600.5713252762.60.2324.67285.360.5826
1975Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1441000.286240289-2.7-0.8250.47299.360.3930
1975Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1412200.8573121350.58.7295.27166.360.7970
1975New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1421200.143165360-8.2-5.9173.47370.760.1347
1975San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West145900.357255286-2.2-2.5257.47323.160.3629
1974Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central147700.5002832591.90.2281.14251.740.5704
1974Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1441000.2862513440.5-4.7261.54320.340.3787
1974Houston OilersotiAFC Central147700.500236282-1.3-0.6236.34262.940.4391
1974Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1410310.7503051892.34.5286.74191.540.7270
1974Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1421200.143190329-4.6-4.1190.14311.940.2352
1974Buffalo BillsbufAFC East149500.643264244-0.31.4250.34234.940.5411
1974Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1411300.7863272163.92.3309.14222.340.6948
1974New England PatriotsnweAFC East147700.5003482896.6-1.8346.94279.740.6372
1974New York JetsnyjAFC East147700.5002793001.1-3.7269.94306.340.4247
1974Denver BroncosdenAFC West147610.5363022943.4-2.8302.14293.740.5209
1974Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West145900.357233293-1.3-1.1236.34269.940.4233
1974Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1412200.8573552286.42.7344.14216.740.7624
1974San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West145900.357212285-3.5-1.3205.54272.740.3403
1974Chicago BearschiNFC Central1441000.286152279-7.4-2.9150.94295.140.1747
1974Detroit LionsdetNFC Central147700.5002562700.5-2.1261.54283.940.4526
1974Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central146800.429210206-3.22.0209.74226.540.4582
1974Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1410400.7143101953.62.5304.94219.540.6937
1974Dallas CowboysdalNFC East148600.5712972354.01.9310.54227.940.6846
1974New York GiantsnygNFC East1421200.143195299-3.5-2.1205.54283.940.3182
1974Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East147700.5002422170.03.0254.54212.540.6085
1974St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East1410400.7142852182.83.0293.74212.540.6896
1974Washington RedskinswasNFC East1410400.7143201965.74.5334.34191.540.7992
1974Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West1431100.214111271-9.7-2.6118.74290.940.1161
1974Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1410400.714263181-0.14.0253.14198.540.6424
1974New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West145900.357166263-5.7-1.7174.74278.340.2533
1974San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West146800.429226236-2.1-0.5225.14261.540.4142
1973Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1410400.7142862310.12.9273.69231.750.5939
1973Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central147520.571234255-2.71.3234.49254.150.4463
1973Houston OilersotiAFC Central1411300.071199447-4.4-12.4210.69445.950.1205
1973Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1410400.7143472104.23.5331.09223.350.7207
1973Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1441000.286226341-2.4-5.9238.69354.950.2635
1973Buffalo BillsbufAFC East149500.643259230-1.72.2248.49241.550.5115
1973Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1412200.8573431505.18.3343.69156.150.8650
1973New England PatriotsnweAFC East145900.357258300-2.5-3.4237.29319.950.3172
1973New York JetsnyjAFC East1441000.286240306-1.5-1.3251.29290.550.4061
1973Denver BroncosdenAFC West147520.5713542965.4-2.5347.89307.350.5738
1973Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West147520.571231192-4.25.1213.49200.950.5293
1973Oakland RaidersraiAFC West149410.6792921750.06.6272.29179.950.7208
1973San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West1421110.179188386-3.7-8.4220.49389.950.1851
1973Chicago BearschiNFC Central1431100.214195334-4.4-4.4210.69333.950.2376
1973Detroit LionsdetNFC Central146710.4642712470.81.2283.49255.550.5580
1973Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central145720.429202259-5.00.2202.29269.550.3300
1973Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1412200.8572961681.76.9296.09175.750.7704
1973Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1410400.7143822036.86.0367.49188.350.8343
1973New York GiantsnygNFC East1421110.179226362-2.8-4.7233.09338.150.2777
1973Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East145810.3933103933.5-7.7321.29380.150.3859
1973St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East144910.3212863651.8-5.1297.49343.750.4028
1973Washington RedskinswasNFC East1410400.7143251981.26.1289.09186.950.7334
1973Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West149500.6433182242.33.6304.49221.950.6787
1973Los Angeles RamsramNFC West1412200.8573881788.15.2385.69199.550.8340
1973New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West145900.357163312-7.0-1.7174.29296.150.2153
1973San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West145900.3572623191.4-1.6291.89294.750.4884
1972Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central148600.5712992291.23.0300.34241.590.6239
1972Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central1410400.714268249-1.61.9261.14256.990.5028
1972Houston OilersotiAFC Central1411300.071164380-7.1-5.9184.14366.190.1475
1972Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central1411300.7863431753.46.6331.14191.190.7856
1972Baltimore ColtscltAFC East145900.357235252-5.12.8212.14244.390.4102
1972Buffalo BillsbufAFC East144910.321257377-1.6-5.6261.14361.990.2961
1972Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1414001.0003851714.56.5346.54192.590.8023
1972New England PatriotsnweAFC East1431100.214192446-6.3-11.1195.34438.990.1047
1972New York JetsnyjAFC East147700.5003673244.7-4.2349.34342.390.5061
1972Denver BroncosdenAFC West145900.3573253502.9-4.7324.14349.390.4444
1972Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West148600.5712872540.42.2289.14252.790.5750
1972Oakland RaidersraiAFC West1410310.7503652485.03.0353.54241.590.7161
1972San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West144910.321264344-0.2-2.6280.74319.990.4111
1972Chicago BearschiNFC Central144910.321225275-2.81.5244.34262.590.4495
1972Detroit LionsdetNFC Central148510.6073392904.40.0345.14283.590.6159
1972Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central1410400.7143042262.34.7315.74217.790.7063
1972Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central147700.5003012522.63.4319.94235.990.6731
1972Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1410400.7143192403.42.7331.14245.790.6712
1972New York GiantsnygNFC East148600.5713312473.52.4332.54249.990.6646
1972Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1421110.179145352-9.2-5.3154.74357.790.1084
1972St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East144910.321193303-4.5-1.2220.54300.390.3130
1972Washington RedskinswasNFC East1411300.7863362182.73.7321.34231.790.6849
1972Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West147700.500269274-2.30.4251.34277.990.4316
1972Los Angeles RamsramNFC West146710.4642912860.1-0.6284.94291.990.4777
1972New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1421110.179215361-5.3-5.0209.34353.590.2066
1972San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West148510.6073532494.91.5352.14262.590.6712
1971Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central1441000.286284265-0.4-0.1265.37272.640.4793
1971Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central149500.6432852731.1-0.8286.37282.440.5046
1971Houston OilersotiAFC Central144910.321251330-3.0-3.8228.97324.440.2927
1971Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central146800.429246292-1.8-1.8245.77296.440.3825
1971Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1410400.7143131402.08.5298.97152.240.8264
1971Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1411300.071184394-4.5-8.9207.97395.840.1600
1971Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1410310.7503151742.45.3304.57197.040.7372
1971New England PatriotsnweAFC East146800.429238325-2.1-3.0241.57313.240.3404
1971New York JetsnyjAFC East146800.429212299-3.7-1.6219.17293.640.3254
1971Denver BroncosdenAFC West144910.321203275-5.51.0193.97257.240.3356
1971Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West1410310.7503022080.64.5279.37208.240.6653
1971Oakland RaidersraiAFC West148420.6433442784.8-1.1338.17286.640.5999
1971San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West146800.4293113412.6-6.6307.37363.640.3885
1971Chicago BearschiNFC Central146800.429185276-4.41.1209.37255.840.3793
1971Detroit LionsdetNFC Central147610.5363412866.5-2.4361.97304.840.6055
1971Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central144820.3572742981.4-2.3290.57303.440.4687
1971Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1411300.786245139-3.49.9223.37132.640.7568
1971Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1411300.7864062228.31.6387.17248.840.7523
1971New York GiantsnygNFC East1441000.286228362-1.7-6.3247.17359.440.2751
1971Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East146710.464221302-2.7-1.6233.17293.640.3586
1971St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East144910.321231279-4.0-0.2214.97274.040.3542
1971Washington RedskinswasNFC East149410.679276190-0.65.8262.57190.040.6777
1971Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West147610.5362742770.31.0275.17257.240.5372
1971Los Angeles RamsramNFC West148510.6073132604.22.4329.77237.640.6894
1971New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West144820.3572663471.4-4.1290.57328.640.4182
1971San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West149500.6433002162.43.8304.57218.040.6893
1970Cincinnati BengalscinAFC Central148600.5713122551.2-0.6286.47278.120.5201
1970Cleveland BrownscleAFC Central147700.5002862650.50.1276.67268.320.5206
1970Houston OilersotiAFC Central1431010.250217352-3.5-5.8220.67350.920.2408
1970Pittsburgh SteelerspitAFC Central145900.357210272-5.9-1.5187.07290.720.2604
1970Baltimore ColtscltAFC East1411210.8213212340.9-0.5282.27276.720.5140
1970Boston PatriotsnweAFC East1421200.143149361-9.1-6.8142.27364.920.0943
1970Buffalo BillsbufAFC East1431010.250204337-5.8-6.5188.47360.720.1691
1970Miami DolphinsmiaAFC East1410400.714297228-1.30.0251.47269.720.4591
1970New York JetsnyjAFC East1441000.286255286-2.2-2.7238.87307.520.3507
1970Denver BroncosdenAFC West145810.393253264-2.5-0.1234.67271.120.4152
1970Kansas City ChiefskanAFC West147520.571272244-0.11.6268.27247.320.5510
1970Oakland RaidersraiAFC West148420.6433002932.3-1.3301.87287.920.5314
1970San Diego ChargerssdgAFC West145630.4642822780.5-1.2276.67286.520.4800
1970Chicago BearschiNFC Central146800.4292562610.41.8275.27244.520.5734
1970Detroit LionsdetNFC Central1410400.7143472027.46.6373.27177.320.8647
1970Green Bay PackersgnbNFC Central146800.429196293-2.40.6236.07261.320.4407
1970Minnesota VikingsminNFC Central1412200.8573351435.99.2352.27140.920.9024
1970Dallas CowboysdalNFC East1410400.7142992212.54.5304.67206.720.7212
1970New York GiantsnygNFC East149500.6433012701.90.1296.27268.320.5630
1970Philadelphia EaglesphiNFC East1431010.250241332-0.9-3.6257.07320.120.3678
1970St. Louis CardinalscrdNFC East148510.6073252283.83.6322.87219.320.7234
1970Washington RedskinswasNFC East146800.4292973143.6-0.6320.07278.120.5894
1970Atlanta FalconsatlNFC West144820.357206261-3.51.2220.67252.920.4211
1970Los Angeles RamsramNFC West149410.6793252024.45.3331.27195.520.7858
1970New Orleans SaintsnorNFC West1421110.179172347-4.6-3.3205.27315.920.2606
1970San Francisco 49erssfoNFC West1410310.7503522676.40.1359.27268.320.6799


Now, as an aside, I wouldn’t go plugging those directly into the log5 formula to predict this weekend’s games just yet. You first need to regress to the mean to account for the uncertainty we see in any observed result. To do that, just add about 17.65 games of .500 performance to each team’s pythagorean Wpct, and you’ll get a “true talent” number that should yield more accurate probabilities regarding future outcomes.

{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }

Neil January 4, 2013 at 5:43 pm

According to SOS-adjusted Pythagorean ratings, the 2012 Colts (.374 pyth%) are:

By far the worst team ever to win 11 games (next-worst were the .438 2004 Falcons)
Also the worst team ever to win 10+ games (next-worst were the .404 1979 Bucs)
Also the fourth-worst team ever to win 9+ games (behind only 1992 Indy, 1998 Arizona, and 1978 Atlanta)

Then again, both the ’04 Falcons and ’79 Bucs won their 1st playoff games, so apparently all is not lost for Indy vs. Baltimore.

Reply

dan January 4, 2013 at 9:08 pm

Sea 2012 in top 20 all-time. Awesome! have been beating their drum for a long time! #gohawks

Reply

George January 5, 2013 at 2:02 pm

Really interesting post. I haven’t really looked into the Pythagorean Formula too much (I did a little bit of investigating into trying to use it for European Soccer and it didn’t work out too well because of the volume of tied games).

Out of interest is there an easier way of doing OSRS and DSRS without resorting to Matrix’s (or Matrices) (as I can see how everything else above would work with the data)? I’m assuming doing it with Matrix’s, it would be SRS*Matrix of Total Games Played (with games played is on the diagonal to get (T*SRS)). T*SRS – Points Scored, to get (T*SRS)-F, and then to calculate DSRS it would be the inverse of a matrix of (Total Games Played+Pairwise Matches between teams)*(T*SRS-F) so (T*SRS-F) is effectively the right hand side vector?. And then SRS – DSRS to get OSRS? I’m not 100% on the maths (as I’m not great at it) but I’ve got something to work fairly similarly in Excel and just wondered if there was a tidier way of doing it?

Reply

Neil Paine January 5, 2013 at 3:17 pm

What I do is set up the matrix in Excel, then feed it into R and run an OLS regression.

For basic SRS, you need to create a 257 x 32 (or more) matrix with games as the rows and team variables as the columns. For each game, the home team will be a dummy variable with value 1, the road team will be -1, and all other teams will take a value of 0. You can also add dummies for home-field advantage, or anything else you want to throw in. The dependent variable will be score margin for each game. To avoid singularities, you must also add a row of all 0′s to the end of the matrix. Run a regression predicting score margin from all of your variables, and the resulting coefficients should be the SRS values.

If you want offense/defense, just split each team into 2 variables, one for each side of the ball, and predict home/away points vs average in each game setting the appropriate team dummies to 1 or -1.

Reply

George January 5, 2013 at 4:46 pm

Thanks – this is really helpful. I had bought the Meyer book after you mentioned it a while back and figured out how to do it that way (as I hadn’t figured out how to do the SRS at that point by the other way that you’d mentioned on the PFR blog) and I set up about 4 or 5, 32×32 matrix’s with various combination’s (total games, games between teams with a 1 or -1 etc.) and did it step by step by step to get a rating (didn’t get the maths behind it but could get the figures to match the example so knew I had the procedure right). I just wondered if there was a way of avoiding using matrix’s (as I ended up using large formulas to get the numbers right in the matrix’s) to break it down into OSRS or DSRS.

Incidentally re: the Colts totally agree, I just don’t get how a team that I’d say on performance isn’t in the top 20 teams in the league have made it into the playoffs (I’ve only really started looking at this thing in the last year and it just struck me that the Colts that I have about 5 points below the average are there).

Reply

lucky irvin August 1, 2014 at 12:44 am

Salute!
I’ll try to add a non-mathematical element to your equations.
I feel qualified, being taught by watching the Raiders, then the Seahawks, and plenty of boring SuperBlahs.
Current Seahawks remind me much of Madden’s Raiders.
Pete C. plays the same style seems to me.
Hell, he was watching them on TV growing up at the Bay.
Both teams exhibted intense toughness, both teams built with core men of great quality, cast off and overlooked.
Though both Raiders then and Seattle now are often slow to get going.
This means one thing
Intense toughness wins games
I propose measuring this quantity/quality this way
ratio of comeback wins/easy wins?

Maybe you already show it in the tables
the way Pete grows his teams

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