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Post your Playoff Predictions

by Chase Stuart on January 4, 2013

in Current Events

Before the playoffs start, I figured I should write down my predictions somewhere. I encourage everyone to post that predictions in the comments. Here are mine:

Wild Card Round
Saturday, Jan. 5, 4:30 p.m.: Bengals at Texans — Texans
Saturday, Jan. 5, 8:00 p.m.: Vikings at Packers — Packers
Sunday, Jan. 6, 1:00 p.m.: Colts at Ravens — Ravens
Sunday, Jan. 6, 4:30 p.m.: Seahawks at Redskins– Seahawks

Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 12, 4:30 p.m.: Ravens/ Colts/ Bengals at Broncos — Broncos
Saturday, Jan. 12, 8 p.m.: Packers/ Redskins/ Seahawks at 49ers — 49ers
Sunday, Jan. 13, 1 p.m.: Redskins/ Seahawks/ Vikings at Falcons — Seahawks
Sunday, Jan. 13, 4:30 p.m.: Texans/ Ravens/ Colts at Patriots — Patriots

Conference Championship Round

Sunday, Jan. 21: 3:00 p.m.: Seahawks at 49ers 49ers
Sunday, Jan. 21: 6:30 p.m.: Patriots at Broncos Broncos

Super Bowl
Sunday, Feb. 3, 2013 – 6:30 p.m.: Broncos vs. 49ersBroncos

{ 11 comments… read them below or add one }

Shattenjager January 4, 2013 at 11:56 am

Mine will not have many differences, but I’ll do it anyway.

Wild Card Round
Saturday, Jan. 5, 4:30 p.m.: Bengals at Texans — Bengals
Saturday, Jan. 5, 8:00 p.m.: Vikings at Packers — Packers
Sunday, Jan. 6, 1:00 p.m.: Colts at Ravens — Ravens
Sunday, Jan. 6, 4:30 p.m.: Seahawks at Redskins– Seahawks

Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 12, 4:30 p.m.: Bengals at Broncos — Broncos
Saturday, Jan. 12, 8 p.m.: Packers at 49ers — 49ers
Sunday, Jan. 13, 1 p.m.: Seahawks at Falcons — Seahawks
Sunday, Jan. 13, 4:30 p.m.: Ravens at Patriots — Patriots

Conference Championship Round
Sunday, Jan. 21: 3:00 p.m.: Seahawks at 49ers – Seahawks
Sunday, Jan. 21: 6:30 p.m.: Patriots at Broncos – Broncos

Super Bowl
Sunday, Feb. 3, 2013 – 6:30 p.m.: Broncos vs. Seahawks — Broncos

The interesting part to me is that the only games that seemed really difficult to pick were Hou@Cin and NE@Den. Even though a number of the games I ended up with were between relatively evenly-matched teams (as many playoff games tend to be), I felt like the matchups really dictated the result almost every time. I’m not someone who tends to brim with confidence in my picks, so it’s interesting that I felt pretty strong about nearly all of these games. It’s probably a sign that I have become overconfident in my own level of understanding of these teams after 16 games of data.

Reply

Shattenjager January 4, 2013 at 11:58 am

Whoops, that’s Cin@Hou.

Reply

dan January 4, 2013 at 3:58 pm

Hou/Indy/GB/Wah
Den/Ne/SF/Atl
Den/Atl
Den

Reply

Richie January 4, 2013 at 4:58 pm

Wild Card Round
Saturday, Jan. 5, 4:30 p.m.: Bengals at Texans — Texans
Saturday, Jan. 5, 8:00 p.m.: Vikings at Packers — Packers
Sunday, Jan. 6, 1:00 p.m.: Colts at Ravens — Colts
Sunday, Jan. 6, 4:30 p.m.: Seahawks at Redskins– Redskins

Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 12, 4:30 p.m.: Ravens/ Colts/ Bengals at Broncos — Broncos
Saturday, Jan. 12, 8 p.m.: Packers/ Redskins/ Seahawks at 49ers — Packers
Sunday, Jan. 13, 1 p.m.: Redskins/ Seahawks/ Vikings at Falcons — Falcons
Sunday, Jan. 13, 4:30 p.m.: Texans/ Ravens/ Colts at Patriots — Patriots

Conference Championship Round
Sunday, Jan. 21: 3:00 p.m.: Packers at Falcons – Packers
Sunday, Jan. 21: 6:30 p.m.: Patriots at Broncos – Broncos

Super Bowl
Sunday, Feb. 3, 2013 – 6:30 p.m.: Broncos vs. Packers — Broncos

Reply

Richie January 4, 2013 at 4:59 pm

So far we all have Denver in the Super Bowl…

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George January 4, 2013 at 5:46 pm

Did the model thing as I mentioned in a previous post – I’ll post a screenshot later as it has New England at 29% chance, Denver at 22% and so on. I did my picks assuming the team with the higher percentage chance to win went through (based on my ratings), and in the case of virtual ties assumed the home team went through by 3 (as on my current ratings – unweighted – I have both championship games and the Superbowl being less than 1pt deals). Ideally I’d re-rate teams after the Wild Card games.

Wild Card Round (predicted percentages in brackets as straight up – all numbers rounded)
Saturday, Jan. 5, 4:30 p.m.: Bengals (40%) at Texans (60%) — Texans by 4
Saturday, Jan. 5, 8:00 p.m.: Vikings (33%) at Packers (67%) — Packers by 6
Sunday, Jan. 6, 1:00 p.m.: Colts (24%) at Ravens (76%) — Ravens by 10 (really don’t like this one even though the numbers say it should be the clearest win and my weighted number and unweighted number is virtually the same – 1pt different – for the Colts and Ravens)
Sunday, Jan. 6, 4:30 p.m.: Seahawks (68%) at Redskins (32%) – Seahawks by 7

Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 12, 4:30 p.m.: Ravens (23%) at Broncos (77%) — Broncos by 10
Saturday, Jan. 12, 8 p.m.: Packers (34%) at 49ers (66%) — 49ers by 5
Sunday, Jan. 13, 1 p.m.: Seahawks (60%) at Falcons (40%) — Seahawks by 3
Sunday, Jan. 13, 4:30 p.m.: Texans (21%) at Patriots (79%) — Patriots by 12

Conference Championship Round
Sunday, Jan. 21: 3:00 p.m.: Seattle (49%) at 49ers (51%) – 49ers by 3 (in O/T) – not comfortable with that pick
Sunday, Jan. 21: 6:30 p.m.: Patriots (51%) at Broncos (49%) – Broncos by 3 (in O/T) – game looks like it will be a coin flip if it happens and the Broncos I have slightly higher weighted rating for an are at home.

Super Bowl
Sunday, Feb. 3, 2013 – 6:30 p.m.: Broncos (49%) vs. 49ers (51%) — Broncos by 3 – not comfortable with this either, gut reaction based on the model I’ve done.

Reply

Danish January 4, 2013 at 6:26 pm

You are all Jinxing the heck out of this. Especially you, Shattenjager – I’m disappointed in you.

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Shattenjager January 5, 2013 at 12:14 am

You should know better than to expect a dyed-in-the-wool skeptic like me to worry about jinxes!
Plus, this is the first time I’ve actually LIKED the team since Brian Griese got injured in 2000. I might as well be an overconfident homer the one time I can be!

More seriously, I do find it odd how few people anywhere seem to be picking New England over Denver with what a toss-up it seems to be in my mind.

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Danish January 5, 2013 at 7:33 am

Honestly I think I’d pick the Pats – even in Denver. You know… you just know the Brady and Gronkowski are going to do something insane, Trindon Holliday is going to fumble a return, Moreno is going to come back to earth. My only hope is Gosthowski – I dont trust that guy.

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George January 5, 2013 at 2:28 pm

In case it’s of any interest to anyone – screenshots from the models that I’ve worked up (at the end of the day they are only as good as your ratings, and on any given Sunday….. etc. – the Giants were estimated at less than 10% chance to win the Superbowl last year and 2006 through 2011 saw wins for the 1-6 seeded teams for what it’s worth)

Results on how I reckon the playoffs pan out with chances to win the AFC, NFC and Superbowl (I think Houston falling out of the top 2, and having to play this week affected their AFC chances by about 20% and Superbowl chances by about 8%, San Francisco getting into a top 2 slot benefited their NFC chances by about 15% and Superbowl chances by about 7%, with Green Bay’s dropping by about 10% and 6% respectively) – hope these show up fairly well;

http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/5858/modelresultsprewc.png

The model itself (showing Denver and Atlanta in the Superbowl in this case – it’s like the Denver/New England game above anything can happen it’s just a question of if it will – data tables in the bottom right hand side);

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/4910/playoffmodel.png

How I played my picks out above (used the ratings from the model and stuck them into the sheet) – two data tables, left hand side game result, right hand side margin of victory (the +/- illustrating either team can win – general margin is up in cell D2 but I just like playing these out) and totaled up in the middle;

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/2478/cinathou.png

Hope this helps someone or gives them a few ideas.

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J January 7, 2013 at 4:20 pm

wish I had seen this earlier…

same for wild card round

I’ll choose GB over 49er’s

following week SEA over GB

DEN to win it all

I do harbor a thought or two of NE upsetting DEN, then beating SEA in SB, but my favorite thought is this DEN D is the best D Manning has had a chance to be teamed with in his career, thus DEN to win it all

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