Chase Stuart

The 2013 San Diego Offense Was Uniquely Efficient

July 28, 2014 Statistics

The Denver Broncos set numerous offensive records last year. The Chip Kelly Eagles had a fascinating offense that was lethal for stretches. The Saints offense was its usual efficient self, and the Chicago Bears under Marc Trestman had one of the best offensive years in franchise history. Yet all of those teams had at least […]

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James Lofton is the Yards Per Catch King

July 27, 2014 Receiving

Yesterday, we looked at which quarterbacks were the best at yards per completion after adjusting for league average. Today, we’ll do the same thing for wide receivers and yards per completion. A small tweak is necessary to the formula. You can skip down to the results section if you don’t care about the math, but […]

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Steve Grogan is the Yards Per Completion King

July 26, 2014 History

In 2013, the average completion went for 11.63 yards. That’s a pretty low number historically, although it’s actually a bit higher than some of the recent NFL seasons. Take a look at how Yards per Completion has generally been declining throughout NFL history: If you want to discuss the quarterbacks who excelled in this metric, […]

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2014 Football Outsiders Almanac

July 25, 2014 Announcements

If you’re reading this blog, chances are you already know all about our friends at Football Outsiders and the terrific analysis they provide every year. However, if by some chance you don’t know of them, or maybe you haven’t heard about their outstanding annual book, they now have copies of the 2014 Football Outsiders Almanac […]

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Quarterback Wins: Outlier Seasons

July 24, 2014 History

The 1998 season was one of my favorite years in NFL history. It was also a pretty weird one. We had Terrell Davis rushing for 2,000 yards, rookies Randy Moss and Fred Taylor making defenses look silly, and a quartet of old quarterbacks stun the football world. Doug Flutie came out of nowhere Canada to […]

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Thoughts on Running Back Yards per Carry

July 23, 2014 Rushing

Regular readers know that I’m skeptical of using “yards per carry” to evaluate running backs. That’s because YPC is not very consistent from year to year. But it’s also not consistent even within the same year. For example, In 2013, Giovani Bernard rushed 92 times for 291 yards in even-numbered games last year, producing a […]

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The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To

July 22, 2014 Receiving

Last week, I looked at the top receivers and the quarterbacks who threw it to them. Today, we flip that question around and look at which receivers the top quarterbacks threw to. I used the exact same methodology from the previous post, so please read that for the fine details. For Peyton Manning, 20% of […]

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Yards per Route Run, Yards per Target, and Targets per Route Run

July 21, 2014 Receiving

Yards per Route Run, a metric tabulated by Pro Football Focus, is one of my favorite statistics to use to examine wide receiver performance.  To me, it’s the wide receiver version of yards per pass, as it takes production and divides that by opportunity.  However, there are some folks who prefer Yards per Target to […]

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Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger

July 20, 2014 History

In 2013, Geno Smith had the worst passer rating (66.5) in the NFL. The year before, Mark Sanchez had a passer rating of 66.9, which was very nearly the lowest in the league (Matt Cassel had a rating of 66.7). But while the Jets didn’t quite do it, a couple of teams have managed to […]

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Fantasy: Running Back Workload Part II (FBG)

July 19, 2014 Fantasy

Last week, I began my analysis of how to measure workload for running backs. Today brings Part II, another attempt to analyze workload and fantasy production. Last year, Joique Bell finished as the 15th best running back in fantasy football. Prior to 2013, Bell had just 82 career carries, all of which came in 2012.  […]

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The Best Adjusted Rushing Teams of All Time

July 18, 2014 Rushing

A couple of weeks ago, I posted a list of the best rushing teams in 2013 using Adjusted Yards per Carry. That metric, you may recall, is calculated as follows: Rushing Yards + 20*RushingTDs + 9*RushingFirstDowns We can use the same formula to grade every team across history. To account for era and quantity (having […]

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The Rashard Mendenhall/Andre Ellington Time Share Part II

July 17, 2014 History

In November, I wrote about the unique running back by committee taking place in Arizona. At the time, Rashard Mendenhall was averaging 3.1 yards per carry, while backup Andre Ellington was averaging 7.2 yards per rush on 54 carries. I thought it would be fun to revisit the Ellington/Mendenhall time share now that the season […]

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Is Chris Johnson Better than Chris Ivory?

July 16, 2014 Rushing

Over the last three years, Chris Johnson has rushed 817 times for 3,367 yards, a 4.12 yards per carry average. Over the last three years, the Jets have had running back seasons where a rusher recorded at least 150 carries: Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory in 2013, and Shonn Greene in both 2011 and 2012. […]

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Rushing EPA and Yards per Carry

July 15, 2014 Rushing

Today I want to look at how traditional rushing statistics compare to rushing Expected Points Added, one of the main stats used over at Advanced Football Analytics. In my analysis, I used the EPA numbers for each team in each season from 2002 to 2013. Stickiness from year to year Yards per carry is not […]

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The Top Receivers And The Men Who Threw It To Them II

July 14, 2014 Quarterbacks

One of my first posts at Football Perspective was one of my favorites: the top receivers and the men who threw it to them. I like referencing that post from time to time, so I decided to update the numbers through the 2013 season. I looked at all regular season games since 19601, and calculated […]

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Fantasy: Running Back Workload (FBG)

July 13, 2014 Fantasy

Over at Footballguys.com, I try to unravel the relationship between workload and age. Eight years ago, Doug wrote three articles on the topic; sadly, I’m not sure we’ve come very far since then. So I decided to at least begin the process of measuring how much of an impact “mileage” really has on running backs. […]

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Fantasy: Running Back Production In Wins and Losses (FBG)

July 12, 2014 Fantasy

Over at Footballguys.com, I looked at which running backs have produced the most extreme fantasy splits in wins and losses. With few exceptions, running backs generally score more fantasy points in wins than in losses.  For example, Adrian Peterson has averaged 22.2 FP/G over the last four years in wins, and 14.8 FP/G in losses, […]

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2014 MVP Odds and Historical QB MVP Performance

July 11, 2014 Vegas

On July 8th, Bovada released some early MVP odds, so I figured it would be fun to take a few minutes and examine which players seem like the best and worst bets. Bovada listed odds for 40 players. For example, Peyton Manning has odds of “3/1″ which implies that he has a 25% chance of […]

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Examining the variation in rushing throughout NFL history

July 8, 2014 Rushing

There is no doubt that in modern times, passing is king. But until pretty recently, we were at the peak level in NFL history with respect to individual rushing performance. On the team level, rushing production ebbed and flows, with high points in the late ’40s, mid-’50s, and mid-’70s, but on the individual level, the […]

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Jimmy Graham Is A Tight End for Franchise Tag Purposes

July 7, 2014 Current Events

On July 3rd, arbitrator Stephen Burbank ruled that Jimmy Graham is a tight end for purposes of the NFL’s franchise tag. You can read a very good analysis of Burbank’s ruling from Jason Lisk here. But after reading Burbank’s full report, I wanted to add my thoughts. And let’s start with a high-level overview. Football […]

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Analyzing the rushing stats of each team in 2013

July 6, 2014 Rushing

A couple of weeks ago, Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats) wrote a great post on the value of a first down. From that post, we concluded that the marginal value of a first down is 9 yards, and we’ve previously determined that the marginal value of a touchdown is 20 […]

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Trivia: Pro Bowlers on NFL Champions, Part II

July 5, 2014 Super Bowl

Last weekend, we looked at the team with the most Pro Bowlers to win a championship. Today, we look at the reverse: the team with the fewest Pro Bowlers to win it all. As a technical matter, the Pro Bowl hasn’t always been around, so some pre-1950 teams and the 1960 Oilers (there was no […]

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Best AV-Weighted Winning Percentages of Defensive Players and Hall of Famers

July 4, 2014 History

Yesterday, I looked at the best AV-weighted winning percentages of offensive players. Today, we examine the same numbers but for defensive players and kickers since 1960. Again, players who entered the league prior to 1960 are included, but for purposes of this study, only their 1960+ seasons count (assuming they produced at least 50 points […]

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Best AV-Weighted Winning Percentages of Offensive Players

July 3, 2014 History

Yesterday, I looked at the weighted career winning percentages for running backs, with the weight being based on each player’s yards from scrimmage in each season of his career. Today, I want to do the same thing but for all offensive players, using PFR’s Approximate Value ratings. By this methodology, Dan Koppen has the highest […]

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Steven Jackson and Running Back Records

July 2, 2014 Rushing

One of my very first posts at Football Perspective looked at the weighted career winning percentages of various running backs. You can calculate a player’s weighted career winning percentage in lots of ways, but here’s what I did: Calculate the percentage of yards from scrimmage a running back gained in each season as a percentage […]

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Thoughts on the value of a rushing first down

July 1, 2014 Statgeekery

Last week, Brian Burke provided some excellent data on the value of a first down. I began working on today’s post last offseason, but as you’ll see in a few minutes, I wasn’t quite comfortable with the results. But here’s what I did. For all teams from 1989 to 2012, I recorded for each team’s […]

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Average margins in Wins and Losses

June 30, 2014 History

Okay, some fun trivia to kick off the week. Do you know which team last year had the worst points differential in games they lost? I’ll put the answer in spoiler tags. Where does that rank historically? I thought it would be fun to look at the teams since 1950 with the worst average margin […]

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Trivia: Pro Bowlers on NFL Champions

June 29, 2014 Trivia

Yesterday, we looked at the team with the most Hall of Famers in a single season in NFL history. That team, which won the NFL championship, had 8 of its players make the Pro Bowl. That’s a very high number, of course, but over 30 teams have won it all and had eight or more […]

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Most Hall of Famers on an NFL Team

June 28, 2014 HOF

Today’s trivia is a straightforward one: only one team in NFL history has fielded 11 players who are currently members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Can you name that team? Tweet

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Predictions in Review: NFC East

June 27, 2014 Stat Recap

During the 2013 offseason, I wrote 32 articles under the RPO 2013 tag. In my Predictions in Review series, I review those preview articles with the benefit of hindsight. Previously, I reviewed the AFC West, the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC South, the AFC North, the NFC North, and the AFC East. Today, […]

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