Chase Stuart

Unstable Divisions

August 29, 2014 Checkdowns

The AFC East was a very stable division over the past two years. The Patriots won 12 games in 2012 and 12 more in 2013. The Bills, with six wins in 2013, also repeated their 2012 win total. Miami won 7 games in 2012, and then 8 last year. And the Jets followed up a […]

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Great Offenses and Missing the Playoffs

August 28, 2014 Data Dump

From 2002 to 2005, Peyton Manning was the best quarterback in the NFL, at least statistically, by a wide margin. But the #2 quarterback in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt was Trent Green, and there was a wide gap between Green and all other quarterbacks not named Manning.  Over that same period, Tony Gonzalez led […]

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Guest Post: DVOA-Adjusted Pythagorean Expectation

August 27, 2014 Statgeekery

Just above these words, it says “posted by Chase.” And it was literally posted by Chase, but the words below the line belong to Bryan Frye, a longtime reader and commenter who has agreed to write this guest post for us. And I thank him for it. Bryan lives in Yorktown, Virginia, and operates his […]

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538: NFC West Preview Articles

August 26, 2014 Announcements

Yesterday, Neil Paine previewed the NFC East teams over at FiveThirtyEight. Today, yours truly is up with a look at the NFC West. The Cardinals won 10 games last year, only the second time the team reached double digits in victories since moving to Arizona in 1988. Their run defense was the key. The Cardinals […]

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Great Defenses and Missing the Playoffs

August 25, 2014 Data Dump

Ten years ago, the teams with three of the four best defenses in football missed the playoffs. The Buffalo Bills ranked 1st in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt allowed and 2nd in Adjusted Yards per Carry allowed. That year, Sam Adams, Takeo Spikes, Terrence McGee, and Nate Clements made the Pro Bowl, while Aaron Schobel […]

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Call for Guest Writers

August 24, 2014 Announcements

There’s no more enjoyable community than the Football Perspective community. Over the past few months, I’ve been devoting more time to my day job, which is a very good thing. The only downside, of course, is that it leaves less time for me to devote to Football Perspective. And while The Streak is still alive, […]

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Checkdowns: Rushing Attempts Leaders Over Three-Year Periods

August 24, 2014 Data Dump

Over the last three years, no player has recorded more carries than Marshawn Lynch. But while Lynch’s 901 carries may lead the league, that’s a pretty low number, at least in modern history. The 2011-2013 seasons very nearly became the first three-year period where no running back had 900 carries since 1989 to 1991, which […]

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Can the Jets or Rams Send Three Defensive Linemen to the Pro Bowl?

August 23, 2014 Defensive Players

I’ve already spent some time this off-season discussing the Rams fantastic front four. Robert Quinn made the Pro Bowl last season, and he’s a good bet to make the trip to Hawaii again this year as long as he stays healthy. Adding Aaron Donald to a line that also has Chris Long and Michael Brockers […]

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Mick Tingelhoff is the 2015 Senior Committee Nominee

August 22, 2014 HOF

Dermontti Dawson is the only Hall of Fame center to play in the NFL in the last 20 years. Go back 30 years, and the only other HOF centers are Mike Webster and Dwight Stephenson. Go back a few more years, and you only get to add Jim Langer. In fact, since 1975, the only […]

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Football Perspective/FanDuel Promotion

August 21, 2014 Announcements

Football Perspective is teaming up again with the fine folks at FanDuel to provide another promotion for our readers. As you know, Football Perspective turns down just about advertising requests. But this is different, and frankly, this isn’t even advertising. Because we’ve got a great community here, FanDuel is happy to bring a fun promotion […]

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538: Are the Broncos or Seahawks More Immune From Regression?

August 20, 2014 Statgeekery

Over at Five Thirty Eight, I look at whether the Broncos pass offense, or the Seahawks pass defense, is more immune from regression to the mean.  As a general rule, elite offenses are further from league average than great defenses, so offensive regression isn’t as likely as defensive regression. It helps, too, that research has […]

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Is Quarterback Stability on the Rise?

August 19, 2014 History

This time last year: Michael Vick was fighting Nick Foles for the Eagles starting job, a battle Vick ultimately won. Brandon Weeden was preparing for his second season as the Browns starting quarterback. Matt Schaub was preparing to lead the Texans to another 12-win season and AFC South title. Josh Freeman was looking to resurrect […]

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Updated: Vegas Futures Wins Totals

August 17, 2014 Current Events

Some background links: Warren Sharp’s look at the initial futures numbers from Cantor My look at implied SRS ratings based on May point spreads Andrew Healy’s post on line movements from March to July: Andrew’s follow-up post on not-entirely-awful futures bets Today I want to look at the latest odds from Vegas on NFL futures, […]

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The Rams and First Round Linemen

August 16, 2014 Trivia

Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays do a great job on their NFL podcasts. Yesterday, I listened to their NFC West preview, and it’s just stunning the amount of highly drafted talent the Rams have on both lines. We already know that the Rams have four former first rounders on the team’s starting defensive line, making […]

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Site News: Call For Help

August 15, 2014 Announcements

As regular readers know, this website has been experiencing some significant issues over the past couple of days. For long stretches, the website was down, and certain pages have been unavailable throughout this period. Why? That’s the tricky part. I’m not a tech guy, but as best I can tell, there were two issues: 1) […]

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Will Calvin Johnson Break Jerry Rice’s Career Receiving Yards Record?

August 14, 2014 Receiving

Over the last three seasons, Calvin Johnson has caught 5,137 yards of passes. That’s an incredible amount, and the most by a player over any three-year span in NFL history. That stat by itself isn’t proof of Johnson’s greatness – after all, Detroit has thrown 2,040 passes over the last three years, also the most […]

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Which Young Quarterbacks Are On Track To Become Franchise QBs?

August 12, 2014 Current Events

Yesterday, I looked at how long it took the best quarterbacks to break out. Today, I want to apply what we learned from that post to 15 current NFL quarterbacks with fewer than 50 starts, all of whom were 26 years old or younger during the 2013 season. Sam Bradford (49 career starts): Career Relative […]

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How Long Does It Take Great Quarterbacks To Break out?

August 11, 2014 History

A couple of years ago, I asked how long it should have taken the Jaguars to move on from Blaine Gabbert. Today I want to revisit that general idea, but look at how long it takes the best quarterbacks to identify themselves as top-tier players. A couple of months ago, I looked at the greatest […]

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Super Bowl Champions and Top-Heavy Divisions

August 10, 2014 Theory

The NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, placing four divisions of four teams each in each conference. Some divisions have been top-heavy, with the most obvious example being the 2007 AFC East. The Patriots won 16 games, while the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills combined to win just twelve games (with six of those twelve wins […]

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Thoughts on Jerome Bettis and Running Back Size

August 9, 2014 Rushing

Jerome Bettis is a polarizing Hall of Fame candidate. I’m on the fence with the Bus; I don’t think he’s as deserving as Steelers fans think, but he’s a more deserving candidate than those who mostly remember end-of-career-Bus remember. One thing I’ve heard from time to time about Bus is that he was the greatest […]

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Footballguys.com – Why You Should Subscribe

August 8, 2014 Announcements

Regular readers know that I’m one of the writers at Footballguys.com. I think regular readers know that I’m not a very good salesman, either. But if you are a hardcore fantasy footballer, you probably already know that Footballguys.com is the single best source for fantasy football information. If you are a more casual fantasy football […]

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Leading Receivers Trivia

August 6, 2014 Trivia

Roger Craig, 1985. Terrell Owens, 1999. Terrell Owens, 2000. Tim Brown, 2001. Neil Paine wrote a fantastic post today at 538 about wide receivers competing with their teammates for production. That inspired me to start crunching some numbers. From 1985 to 2003, Jerry Rice played in at least 8 games in 18 different seasons. In […]

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Thoughts on Completion Percentage By Position

August 5, 2014 Thought Experiments

According to Football Outsiders, over the last three years, 60% of all passes have gone to wide receivers, 21% to tight ends, and 19% to running backs. There are some players who are position hybrids, of course, but as a general rule, wide receiers catch about 56.3% of passes, tight ends have a 63.1% catch […]

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Touchdowns in Losses

August 3, 2014 Trivia

A fun trivia question from Scott Kacsmar this week: The most TD passes a QB threw in one season in games he LOST is 25. Name the QB, and if you can, the year. Here’s the answer: Who is the career leader in touchdown passes in losses? Who is the single-season leader in rushing touchdowns […]

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Trivia: Most Passing Yards in Final 16 Regular Season Games

August 2, 2014 History

The past couple of days, we looked at the players with the most receiving yards and rushing yards in their final 16 regular season games. Today, we get to the quarterbacks. Only one non-active player threw for 4,000 yards in his final 16 games. Three other players threw for 3900+ yards. That doesn’t include Dan […]

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Trivia: Most Rushing Yards in Final 16 Regular Season Games

August 1, 2014 History

I’m still short on time, so let’s keep the trivia train rolling.  Yesterday, I looked at the players with the most receiving yards in their last 16 regular season games. Today, the players with the most rushing yards in their last 16 games. Excluding LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Doug Martin, only five players have […]

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Trivia: Most Receiving Yards in Final 16 Regular Season Games

July 31, 2014 History

I’m very short on time this week, so here’s a fun trivia question. Last week, I noted that Justin Blackmon gained 1,201 receiving yards in his last 16 games. As it turns out, if Blackmon never plays in another NFL game, that would set the record for most receiving yards in a player’s final sixteen […]

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Quarterback Losses Trivia

July 30, 2014 Quarterbacks

Can you name the two quarterbacks with the most losses in a single season? What about the quarterback with the most losses during his rookie year? Tweet

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Bill Walsh and Joe Montana Must Change to Succeed

July 29, 2014 History

The San Francisco Times September 23rd, 1981 I’m not here to tell you that Bill Walsh is a bad coach.  And I’m not here to tell you that Joe Montana can’t possibly succeed in the NFL. It’s just that if they want to still be here in two years, some changes are in order. Walsh […]

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The 2013 San Diego Offense Was Uniquely Efficient

July 28, 2014 Statistics

The Denver Broncos set numerous offensive records last year. The Chip Kelly Eagles had a fascinating offense that was lethal for stretches. The Saints offense was its usual efficient self, and the Chicago Bears under Marc Trestman had one of the best offensive years in franchise history. Yet all of those teams had at least […]

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