Predictions in Review: NFC North

March 29, 2014 Stat Recap

During the 2013 offseason, I wrote 32 articles under the RPO 2013 tag. In my Predictions in Review series, I review those preview articles with the benefit of hindsight. Previously, I reviewed the AFC West, the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC South, and the AFC North. Today, the NFC North. The Detroit Lions […]

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Adrian Peterson’s 2012 Season Lacked Some Juice

February 14, 2014 Rushing

When I went on the Advanced NFL Stats Podcast in late December, I discussed my use of Z-scores to measure the Seattle pass defense. Host Dave Collins asked me if I was planning on using Z-scores to measure other things, like say, Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season. I told him that would be an interesting idea […]

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Can Adrian Peterson break Emmitt Smith’s rushing record?

August 3, 2013 Random Perspective On

Two house-keeping notes before we get to today’s post. First, today’s a pretty big day for our friend Neil Paine: he’s getting married. I’ll be there to celebrate with him in Philadelphia, but I know you guys will be with us in spirit. Congrats to Kaitlyn and Neil! And another set of confetti must be […]

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Some Initial Thoughts Running Backs

July 1, 2013 Rushing

I’ve spent a lot of time this offseason looking at how to grade wide receivers; today I wanted to get some initial thoughts down on paper on running backs. I’m short on time today, which means a lot of data and not so much theory. One of the more underrated statistics to measure running backs […]

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NYT Fifth Down: Post-week 17

January 2, 2013 Checkdowns

At the New York Times Fifth Down Blog this week, I explain my choices for the major awards this season. Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings Generally, the Most Valuable Player award is given to the best quarterback, while the Offensive Player of the Year is usually the player with the most […]

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Checkdowns: Career rushing stats in wins and losses

December 30, 2012 History

Yesterday, I noted that Adrian Peterson is averaging nearly two more yards per rush in losses than wins. He’s also averaging a nearly identical number of rushing yards per game in wins and losses. As you’re about to see, that’s pretty rare. We all know that wins are correlated with rushing yards, so it should […]

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Adrian Peterson’s amazing, except when the Vikings win

December 29, 2012 Rushing

Adrian Peterson is having an incredible season. He’s likely to hit the 2,000-yard mark on Sunday, and he’s also chasing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. But his splits this year are…interesting. The table below shows Adrian Peterson’s game logs. These display his traditional statistics, along with his Win Probability added, Expected Points Added, and Success […]

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NYT Fifth Down: Post-week 15

December 18, 2012 NYT

A double post at the New York Times this week. Did you know that Alex Smith is seven attempts away from qualifying for eligibility for certain rate-based statistics? If Jim Harbaugh wants to game the system — and this is Harbaugh — he could ptobably that Smith breaks the completion percentage record, set by Drew […]

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Running back success rate

December 6, 2012 Rushing

Grading running backs can be tricky; rushing yards tell much of the story but remain a function of opportunity (itself an indicator of talent). Yards per carry sounds nice but often is more misleading than revealing. Last year at Smartfootball.com I analyzed team rushing games using rush success rate, and I will do the same […]

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NYT Fifth Down: Post-week 13

December 4, 2012 NYT

This week at the New York Times, I blush when discussing Andrew Luck, praise the great Calvin Johnson as he tries to surpass Jerry Rice (but with a caveat), and take a look at some other random stats (including some absurd numbers from Adrian Peterson). Trivia: Brandon Marshall has gained over 1,000 yards on both […]

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NYT Fifth Down: Post-week 10

November 14, 2012 NYT

This week at the New York Times I looked at several interesting statistical developments in both the 2012 season and in week 10. Even in today’s pass-happy N.F.L., it pays to have one of the best running backs. In one of the bigger surprises of the season, the best of the best is Minnesota’s Adrian […]

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Expect more MJD-style holdouts in the future

August 10, 2012 Rookies

The Maurice Jones-Drew holdout is slightly different than the typical holdouts we see every summer. As a 27-year-old running back, Jones-Drew is seeking his last big contract. But with a new owner and regime in Jacksonville, management is understandably hesitant to give a large contract to a player who already has two years remaining on […]

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Franchise leaders — rushing stats

July 5, 2012 Rushing

Yesterday, we took a look at the franchise leaders in various passing categories. Let’s do the same for running backs today. The first list shows the leaders in career rushing yards for each franchise; the last column shows the last year that running back played for that franchise: Tweet

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