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Barry Sanders and Rushing Yards Gray Ink

On Thursday, I looked at a measure of passing efficiency and gray ink: where a first place finish rewards a player with 10 points, a second-place finish 9 points, a third-place finish 8 points, and so on. Today, I’m going to do the same thing but with rushing yards, so a rushing crown is worth 10 points, a runner-up title is worth 9 points, and so on. You can read a few twists in this footnote. [1]I want to give more credit to seasons where there were more teams. So when Kareem Hunt led the 32-team NFL last season, that was worth 10 points. What about when Pug Manders led the 9-team NFL in … Continue reading

Let’s use Barry Sanders as an example. In four seasons, he led the NFL in rushing (+40 points), and in three other seasons, he was the runner up (+27 points). He also had two seasons where he ranked 4th in rushing yards (+14) and one season where he ranked 5th (+6), for a total of 87 points. Using the pro-rated method explained in the footnote, since there were fewer than 32 teams during his career, Sanders actually gets credit for 82.7 points. That is still the most of any player in history: [continue reading…]

References

References
1 I want to give more credit to seasons where there were more teams. So when Kareem Hunt led the 32-team NFL last season, that was worth 10 points. What about when Pug Manders led the 9-team NFL in 1941? That feels less meaningful, and that is especially true when comparing a 9th-place finish in 2017 to a 9th-place finish in 1941. One option is to take the number of points — say, 10 — and divided it (32/X), with X being the number of teams in the league. So if there are 9 teams, you would take 10 and divide it by 3.55, and get 2.8 points. That feels too extreme to me: it would make a first-place finish in a 9-team league less valuable than an 8th-place finish in a 32-team league. So do I use 10 points or 2.8 points… or do I split the baby? Well, that’s what I did: I averaged those two numbers to get 6.4 points, equal to a 4th- or 5th-place finish today. I was comfortable with that result, but your mileage may vary.

Other thoughts: I combined all AFL and AAFC seasons. Probably not ideal, but it was the quickest/simplest thing to do.

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Frank Gore is already #5 on the career rushing list, while Adrian Peterson is currently in 12th place (but two years younger). In recent months, I’ve compared Gore and Peterson, as their careers which have been both very similar and very different.  Both had severe knee injuries and might be the two best running backs to ever recover from ACL surgery, and both players are going to wind up very high on the career rushing list. Gore is now the favorite — surprisingly — to finish with more career rushing yards.  On the other hand, Gore is much more of a compiler and Peterson a shining star.  Gore ranks 34th in career rushing yards per game, while Peterson ranks 4th in that category.

So who do you prefer? The guy who ranks 5th in career rushing yards or 4th in career rushing yards per game?  Or, if you like, there’s LeSean McCoy. Gore and Peterson already have crossed the 12,000-yard mark, and McCoy is likely to do so as well; either way, they are the three active players with the most rushing yards, making them a natural source of comparison. And assuming McCoy gets there, they will also be the only three players from this era (not including Tomlinson or younger players) to hit the 12,000-yard mark.

McCoy’s highs weren’t as high as Peterson, but they were a little higher (two first-team All-Pro seasons, a third season as a top-three fantasy running back, six Pro Bowls in the last seven years) than Gore.  And his career volume probably won’t match Gore, but it will probably be higher than Peterson.  McCoy is currently 29th in career rushing yards and 22nd in career rushing yards per game.

Let’s compare the three players year-by-year, starting at age 21. [continue reading…]

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Bill Barnwell wrote an interesting article where he tried to identify the best running back in football. His article made me wonder: which player will gain the most rushing yards over the next decade?

It probably makes sense to start with a look at history. I suspect you would have been able to guess that LaDainian Tomlinson had the most rushing yards from 2002 to 2011, but what about from 1982 to 1991? Or from 1960 to 1969? The table below shows each leader in rushing yards for every ten year period, along with their age and NFL experience during their first season during the relevant period.

YearsRush YdsPlayerBeg AgeBeg Exp.
1932--19413860Clarke Hinkle231
1933--19423529Clarke Hinkle242
1934--19433132Tuffy Leemans22--
1935--19443132Tuffy Leemans23--
1936--19453132Tuffy Leemans241
1937--19462529Pug Manders24--
1938--19472813Steve Van Buren18--
1939--19483758Steve Van Buren19--
1940--19494904Steve Van Buren20--
1941--19505533Steve Van Buren21--
1942--19515860Steve Van Buren22--
1943--19525860Steve Van Buren23--
1944--19535860Steve Van Buren241
1945--19545416Steve Van Buren252
1946--19554817Joe Perry19--
1947--19565337Joe Perry20--
1948--19575791Joe Perry21--
1949--19586549Joe Perry22--
1950--19597151Joe Perry233
1951--19606599Joe Perry244
1952--19616597Joe Perry255
1953--19627459Jim Brown17--
1954--19639322Jim Brown18--
1955--196410768Jim Brown19--
1956--196512312Jim Brown20--
1957--196612312Jim Brown211
1958--196711370Jim Brown222
1959--19689843Jim Brown233
1960--19698514Jim Brown244
1961--19707257Jim Brown255
1962--19716074Leroy Kelly20--
1963--19726885Leroy Kelly21--
1964--19737274Leroy Kelly221
1965--19747262Leroy Kelly232
1966--19758123O.J. Simpson19--
1967--19769626O.J. Simpson20--
1968--197710183O.J. Simpson21--
1969--197810776O.J. Simpson221
1970--197910539O.J. Simpson232
1971--198010051O.J. Simpson243
1972--198110339Franco Harris221
1973--198210204Walter Payton19--
1974--198311625Walter Payton20--
1975--198413309Walter Payton211
1976--198514181Walter Payton222
1977--198614124Walter Payton233
1978--198712805Walter Payton244
1979--198811410Walter Payton255
1980--198911226Eric Dickerson20--
1981--199011903Eric Dickerson21--
1982--199112439Eric Dickerson22--
1983--199213168Eric Dickerson231
1984--199311451Eric Dickerson242
1985--19949346Eric Dickerson253
1986--199510172Barry Sanders18--
1987--199611725Barry Sanders19--
1988--199713778Barry Sanders20--
1989--199815269Barry Sanders211
1990--199913963Emmitt Smith211
1991--200014229Emmitt Smith222
1992--200113687Emmitt Smith233
1993--200212949Emmitt Smith244
1994--200311719Emmitt Smith255
1995--200413366Curtis Martin221
1996--200512614Curtis Martin232
1997--200611462Curtis Martin243
1998--200711607Edgerrin James20--
1999--200812121Edgerrin James211
2000--200912490LaDainian Tomlinson21--
2001--201013404LaDainian Tomlinson221
2002--201112448LaDainian Tomlinson232

Steve Van Buren in the middle of his most famous performance.

Tomlinson entered the league in 2001, but he was so productive in his first nine years that he also led the league in rushing yards gained from 2000 to 2009. O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson and Barry Sanders each led the league in rushing yards for ten year periods … when they spent the first three seasons of those decades playing college ball. Jim Brown was even more impressive, as he led the NFL in rushing yards from 1953 to 1962, even though he was just 17 years old in 1953 and did not enter the league until 1957.

But Steve Van Buren has them all beat: he entered the league in 1944, but led all players in rushing from 1938 to 1947. As you may recall, he’s still the Eagles franchise leader in rushing touchdowns. We can also look at the leaders over the last nine seasons, although obviously the ten-year windows are not closed in these cases:

YearsRush YdsPlayerBeg AgeBeg Exp.
2003--201110765LaDainian Tomlinson243
2004--20119120LaDainian Tomlinson254
2005--20118420Steven Jackson222
2006--20117374Steven Jackson233
2007--20116752Adrian Peterson221
2008--20115645Chris Johnson231
2009--20114417Chris Johnson242
2010--20112930Maurice Jones-Drew255
2011--20111606Maurice Jones-Drew266

So what can we make of the results? The average running back was just a hair under 22 at the start of his ten year period. Nearly half of all running backs were not yet in the NFL at the start of their ten year run, although that is likely to change now. Those players were in other football leagues, serving their country, or in college, but all three of those factors are less prevalent now. Star running backs leave college a year or two earlier than they did a generation ago, which will make it slightly less likely that a player will not be in the NFL at the start of the next ten-year run.

Fourteen players were rookies at the start of their great stretch, and another 10 were second year players, making nearly 80% of the players having just one year or less of experience in the summer before the start of their streak. What does that mean for the stretch from 2012 to 2021? Trent Richardson is the ideal candidate, as the new Browns running back just turned 21. Last year’s Alabama running sensation, Mark Ingram, was 22 in 2011, while Dion Lewis and Jacquizz Rodgers were the top 21-year-old running backs last season.

The rushing champ from 2012 to 2021?

No running back started his 10-year stretch atop the leaderboard at the age of 26, and only Hall of Famers Steve Van Buren, Joe Perry, Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson and Emmitt Smith were 25 at the start of a streak. That makes it pretty easy to rule out Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, all of whom will be 27 in 2012. Ray Rice (25 in 2012), Arian Foster (26), Marshawn Lynch (26) and Ryan Mathews (25) are probably suckers’ bets, too.

LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells and DeMarco Murray all are entering their age 24 season, making them perhaps the best hope among the young runners with NFL experience. On the other hand, along with Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Ronnie Hillman and Lamar Miller made the 2012 draft strong at the position. In the NFC West, Isaiah Pead and Kendall Hunter (or LaMichael James) could be the future for their teams for the next decade. As always, it’s too early to say.

In the collegiate ranks, South Carolina’s Marcus Lattimore is expected to be the cream of the 2013 class, with Auburn transfer Michael Dyer and Wisconsin’s Montee Ball also in the mix. And based on past history, we can’t count out sophomores Malcolm Brown or De’Anthony Thomas. If you had to pick which player will lead the league in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021, Trent Richardson is the obvious choice. After him, I’d probably be pretty evenly split among McCoy, Martin and Lattimore.

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Franchise leaders — rushing stats

Yesterday, we took a look at the franchise leaders in various passing categories. Let’s do the same for running backs today. The first list shows the leaders in career rushing yards for each franchise; the last column shows the last year that running back played for that franchise:

TeamYardsRunning BackLast Yr
STL9093Steven Jackson
SFO7625Frank Gore
CAR5047DeAngelo Williams
SDG12490LaDainian Tomlinson2009
GNB8322Ahman Green2009
JAX11271Fred Taylor2008
NOR6096Deuce McAllister2008
SEA9429Shaun Alexander2007
KAN6070Priest Holmes2007
NYG10449Tiki Barber2006
BAL7801Jamal Lewis2006
NYJ10302Curtis Martin2005
IND9226Edgerrin James2005
HOU3195Domanick Williams2005
TEN10009Eddie George2003
CIN8061Corey Dillon2003
DAL17162Emmitt Smith2002
DEN7607Terrell Davis2001
MIN6818Robert Smith2000
BUF11938Thurman Thomas1999
DET15269Barry Sanders1998
OAK8545Marcus Allen1992
TAM5957James Wilder1989
ATL6631Gerald Riggs1988
CHI16726Walter Payton1987
ARI7999Ottis Anderson1986
WAS7472John Riggins1985
PHI6538Wilbert Montgomery1984
PIT11950Franco Harris1983
NWE5453Sam Cunningham1982
MIA6737Larry Csonka1979
CLE12312Jim Brown1965

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