Barry Sanders and Rushing Yards Gray Ink

by Chase Stuart on July 14, 2018

On Thursday, I looked at a measure of passing efficiency and gray ink: where a first place finish rewards a player with 10 points, a second-place finish 9 points, a third-place finish 8 points, and so on. Today, I’m going to do the same thing but with rushing yards, so a rushing crown is worth 10 points, a runner-up title is worth 9 points, and so on. You can read a few twists in this footnote. ^[1]I want to give more credit to seasons where there were more teams. So when Kareem Hunt led the 32-team NFL last season, that was worth 10 points. What about when Pug Manders led the 9-team NFL in … Continue reading

Let’s use Barry Sanders as an example. In four seasons, he led the NFL in rushing (+40 points), and in three other seasons, he was the runner up (+27 points). He also had two seasons where he ranked 4th in rushing yards (+14) and one season where he ranked 5th (+6), for a total of 87 points. Using the pro-rated method explained in the footnote, since there were fewer than 32 teams during his career, Sanders actually gets credit for 82.7 points. That is still the most of any player in history:

Rk	Running Back	First Yr	Last Yr	Raw Value	Pro Value	HOF
1	Barry Sanders	1989	1998	87	82.7	HOF
2	Walter Payton	1975	1987	80	75	HOF
3	Jim Brown	1957	1965	84	66	HOF
4	Emmitt Smith	1990	2004	65	61.9	HOF
5	Eric Dickerson	1983	1993	60	56.3	HOF
6	Adrian Peterson	2007	2017	56	56	Fut HOF
7	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001	2011	49	49	HOF
8	Tony Dorsett	1977	1988	47	44.1	HOF
9	O.J. Simpson	1969	1979	48	43.8	HOF
10	Joe Perry	1948	1963	62	43.3	HOF
11	Curtis Martin	1995	2005	44	43.2	HOF
12	Thurman Thomas	1988	2000	43	40.3	HOF
13	Jim Taylor	1958	1967	47	39.5	HOF
14	Steve Van Buren	1944	1951	51	37.5	HOF
15	LeSean McCoy	2009	2017	37	37	Not El.
16	Franco Harris	1972	1984	40	36.9	HOF
17	Edgerrin James	1999	2009	37	36.7	Not in Hall
18	Earl Campbell	1978	1985	39	36.6	HOF
19	Clinton Portis	2002	2010	35	35	Not in Hall
20	Marion Motley	1946	1955	40	30	HOF
21	Leroy Kelly	1964	1973	33	29.5	HOF
22	Gale Sayers	1965	1971	33	29.2	HOF
23	Terrell Davis	1995	2001	30	29.1	HOF
24	John Henry Johnson	1954	1966	37	28.7	HOF
25	Eddie George	1996	2004	29	28.3	Not in Hall
26	Larry Brown	1969	1976	31	28.1	Not in Hall
27	Jerome Bettis	1993	2005	29	27.8	HOF
28	Shaun Alexander	2000	2008	27	26.9	Not in Hall
29.5	Tiki Barber	1997	2006	26	26	Not in Hall
29.5	Arian Foster	2009	2016	26	26	Not El.
31	Lawrence McCutcheon	1972	1981	28	25.8	Not in Hall
32	Ottis Anderson	1979	1992	27	25.3	Not in Hall
33	Marshall Faulk	1994	2005	26	25.2	HOF
34	Michael Turner	2004	2012	25	25	Not El.
35.5	Cookie Gilchrist	1962	1967	29	24.5	Not in Hall
35.5	Larry Csonka	1968	1979	27	24.5	HOF
37.5	Marshawn Lynch	2007	2017	24	24	Not El.
37.5	Jamaal Charles	2008	2017	24	24	Not El.
39	Cliff Battles	1932	1937	37	23.9	HOF
40.5	Gerald Riggs	1982	1991	25	23.4	Not in Hall
40.5	Curt Warner	1983	1990	25	23.4	Not in Hall
42.5	Rick Casares	1955	1966	34	23.4	Not in Hall
42.5	Dan Towler	1950	1955	34	23.4	Not in Hall
44.5	Le'Veon Bell	2013	2017	23	23	Not El.
44.5	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006	2014	23	23	Not El.
46	Jamal Lewis	2000	2009	23	22.9	Not in Hall
47	John Brockington	1971	1977	25	22.7	Not in Hall
48	Tuffy Leemans	1936	1943	34	22.2	HOF
49	Chris Johnson	2008	2017	22	22	Not El.
50	Corey Dillon	1997	2006	22	21.8	Not in Hall
51	Calvin Hill	1969	1981	24	21.8	Not in Hall
52	Eddie Price	1950	1955	31	21.4	Not in Hall
53	Clem Daniels	1960	1968	25	21.3	Not in Hall
54	Stephen Davis	1996	2006	21	20.7	Not in Hall
55	Spec Sanders	1946	1950	26	20.3	Not in Hall
56.5	Frank Gore	2005	2017	20	20	Not El.
56.5	Steven Jackson	2004	2015	20	20	Not El.
58	Priest Holmes	1997	2007	20	19.8	Not in Hall
59	Clarke Hinkle	1932	1941	30	19.5	HOF
60	Lydell Mitchell	1972	1980	21	19.4	Not in Hall
61	Alan Ameche	1955	1960	28	19.3	Not in Hall
62	DeMarco Murray	2011	2017	19	19	Not El.
63	Rodney Hampton	1990	1997	20	18.8	Not in Hall
65	William Andrews	1979	1986	20	18.8	Not in Hall
65	Wilbert Montgomery	1977	1985	20	18.8	Not in Hall
65	Billy Sims	1980	1984	20	18.8	Not in Hall
67	Jim Nance	1965	1973	21	18.6	Not in Hall
68	Terry Allen	1991	2001	19	18.2	Not in Hall
69	Chris Warren	1990	2000	19	18	Not in Hall
70.5	Joe Morris	1982	1991	19	17.8	Not in Hall
70.5	Marcus Allen	1982	1997	19	17.8	HOF
72	Paul Lowe	1960	1969	21	17.6	Not in Hall
73	Floyd Little	1967	1975	19	17.2	HOF
75	Larry Johnson	2003	2011	17	17	Not in Hall
75	Thomas Jones	2000	2011	17	17	Not in Hall
75	Todd Gurley	2015	2017	17	17	Not El.
77.5	Ricky Watters	1992	2001	17	16.5	Not in Hall
77.5	Ollie Matson	1952	1966	24	16.5	HOF
79.5	Ken Willard	1965	1974	18	16	Not in Hall
79.5	Alfred Morris	2012	2017	16	16	Not El.
81	Abner Haynes	1960	1967	19	15.9	Not in Hall
82.5	Fred Taylor	1998	2010	16	15.9	Not in Hall
82.5	Ahman Green	1998	2009	16	15.9	Not in Hall
84	John Riggins	1971	1985	17	15.8	HOF
85	Chet Mutryn	1946	1950	20	15.5	Not in Hall
86	Ron Johnson	1969	1975	17	15.4	Not in Hall
87	Hugh McElhenny	1952	1964	22	15.1	HOF
90	Neal Anderson	1986	1993	16	15	Not in Hall
90	Freeman McNeil	1981	1992	16	15	Not in Hall
90	Delvin Williams	1974	1981	16	15	Not in Hall
90	Doug Martin	2012	2017	15	15	Not El.
90	Ray Rice	2008	2013	15	15	Not El.
93	Ricky Williams	1999	2011	15	15	Not in Hall
94	Chuck Foreman	1973	1980	16	14.8	Not in Hall
95	Johnny Strzykalski	1946	1952	19	14.6	Not in Hall
96	Pug Manders	1939	1947	22	14.5	Not in Hall
97	Ernie Caddel	1933	1938	22	14.3	Not in Hall
98	George Rogers	1981	1987	15	14.1	Not in Hall
99	Jordan Howard	2016	2017	14	14	Not El.
100	J.D. Smith	1956	1966	18	13.7	Not in Hall

This methodology does a very good job at identifying top players — the 14 player with the highest scores are all HOFers or future HOFers; in fact, there’s a good chance that 23 of the 24 players with the highest scores as of today will all wind up in the Hall of Fame, with Clinton Portis being the lone exception (and even he could wind up in Canton if the winds of fate turn his way).

It also highlights how good LeSean McCoy has been: he’s likely going to lead the NFL in rushing during the decade of the ’10s, and is a strong HOF candidate. McCoy led the NFL in rushing in 2013 (+10), ranked 3rd in ’14 (+8), 4th in ’11 and ’17 (+14), and 6th in 2016 (+5), for a total of 37 points, which is squarely in the HOF camp.

Where this methodology fares less well is identifying all HOFers. There are a number of HOF running backs who fare poorly in this methodology. More on them tomorrow.

What stands out to you?

References[+]

References
↑1	I want to give more credit to seasons where there were more teams. So when Kareem Hunt led the 32-team NFL last season, that was worth 10 points. What about when Pug Manders led the 9-team NFL in 1941? That feels less meaningful, and that is especially true when comparing a 9th-place finish in 2017 to a 9th-place finish in 1941. One option is to take the number of points — say, 10 — and divided it (32/X), with X being the number of teams in the league. So if there are 9 teams, you would take 10 and divide it by 3.55, and get 2.8 points. That feels too extreme to me: it would make a first-place finish in a 9-team league less valuable than an 8th-place finish in a 32-team league. So do I use 10 points or 2.8 points… or do I split the baby? Well, that’s what I did: I averaged those two numbers to get 6.4 points, equal to a 4th- or 5th-place finish today. I was comfortable with that result, but your mileage may vary. Other thoughts: I combined all AFL and AAFC seasons. Probably not ideal, but it was the quickest/simplest thing to do.

Tagged as: Barry Sanders, LeSean McCoy

{ 0 comments }