ANY/A and the HOF Gray Ink Test

by Chase Stuart on July 12, 2018

A few years ago, I looked at Eli Manning and the HOF in the context of an ANY/A Gray Ink test. What do I mean by that? Here’s what I did:

Step 1) Calculate each quarterback’s ANY/A for each season of his career where he had enough pass attempts to qualify for the passing title (14 attempts per team game). ANY/A, of course, is calculated as follows: (Passing Yards + PassTDs * 20 – INTs * 45 – Sack Yards Lost) / (Pass Attempts + Sacks).

Step 2) For each quarterback, award him 10 points if he led the league in ANY/A, 9 points if he finished 2nd, 8 points if he finished 3rd, … and 1 point if he finished 10th. A quarterback receives 0 points if he does not finish in the top 10 in ANY/A or does not have enough pass attempts to qualify.

Step 3) For each quarterback, add his “points” from each season to produce a career grade.

I decided to update that post (written in 2014) and make a few changes.

1) I have included the results from the last four seasons.

2) I included sack data from 1960 to 1968, using estimated individual sack data based on team sack data.

3) I have lumped together the AAFC/AFL with the NFL in each season as if it was all one big league.

4) I have pro-rated the values based on the number of qualifying passers in each season. So let’s say a player ranks 4th in ANY/A in 2017, where there were 32 qualifying passers. He gets the average of 7 points and 7 points * 32 divided by 32, which is of course just 7 points. Now, let’s say a player ranks 4th in ANY/A in a 10-team league. He gets the average of 7 points and 7 points * 10/32 (2.18), which is 4.6 points. This is not a special formula, but a “good enough” metric that helps discredit players in smaller leagues, but not overly so (hence the average idea).

Okay, enough words. Here are the results. I have also included the raw totals, so you can see what happens if I didn’t pro-rate the values. Finally, I subjectively included some HOF labels at the end: actually in the HOF (not very subjective), Future HOFer, Borderline, and then either Not Eligible or a No for the HOF.

Rk	Player	First Yr	Last Yr	Raw Score	Pro Score	HOF
1	Peyton Manning	1998	2015	109	110.8	Fut HOF
2	Dan Marino	1983	1999	96	90.9	HOF
3	Joe Montana	1979	1994	82	77.5	HOF
4	Tom Brady	2000	2017	77	77.3	Fut HOF
5	Drew Brees	2001	2017	76	76.7	Fut HOF
6	Brett Favre	1991	2010	68	67.2	HOF
7	Johnny Unitas	1956	1973	87	66.2	HOF
8	Dan Fouts	1973	1987	68	63.9	HOF
9	Y.A. Tittle	1948	1964	89	63.6	HOF
10	Steve Young	1985	1999	64	61.6	HOF
11	Fran Tarkenton	1961	1978	71	60.2	HOF
12	Norm Van Brocklin	1949	1960	81	55.8	HOF
13	Aaron Rodgers	2005	2017	53	53.6	Fut HOF
14	Otto Graham	1946	1955	78	53.4	HOF
15	Sammy Baugh	1937	1952	87	51.6	HOF
16	Roger Staubach	1969	1979	55	48.3	HOF
17	Philip Rivers	2004	2017	47	47.4	Border
18	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2017	45	45.5	Fut HOF
19	Bobby Layne	1948	1962	62	42.6	HOF
20	Bart Starr	1956	1971	52	42.1	HOF
21	Ken Anderson	1971	1986	46	40.5	Border
22	Kurt Warner	1998	2009	39	39.5	HOF
23	Tony Romo	2006	2016	39	39.5	Border
24	Terry Bradshaw	1970	1983	42	38.7	HOF
25	Sonny Jurgensen	1957	1974	45	38.4	HOF
26	Charlie Conerly	1948	1961	57	38.2	No
27	Trent Green	1997	2008	37	37.5	No
28	Troy Aikman	1989	2000	39	37.0	HOF
29	Boomer Esiason	1984	1997	39	36.5	No
30	Len Dawson	1957	1975	40	33.5	HOF
31	John Hadl	1962	1977	39	32.5	No
32	John Elway	1983	1998	32	30.8	HOF
33	Tommy Thompson	1940	1950	46	29.7	No
34	Warren Moon	1984	2000	31	28.9	HOF
35	Milt Plum	1957	1969	37	28.2	No
36	John Brodie	1957	1973	33	28.1	No
37	Carson Palmer	2004	2017	27	27.6	Not El.
38	Billy Kilmer	1961	1978	33	27.5	No
39	Daryle Lamonica	1963	1974	32	27.4	No
40	Sid Luckman	1939	1950	43	26.2	HOF
41	Jim Hart	1966	1984	30	25.9	No
42	Matt Ryan	2008	2017	26	25.7	Border
43.5	Bob Griese	1967	1980	29	24.8	HOF
43.5	Joe Namath	1965	1977	29	24.8	HOF
45	Jim Kelly	1986	1996	26	24.5	HOF
46	Ken Stabler	1970	1984	27	23.5	HOF
47	Vinny Testaverde	1987	2007	24	23.4	No
48	Roman Gabriel	1962	1977	28	23.3	No
49	Bob Waterfield	1945	1952	36	23.2	HOF
50	Craig Morton	1965	1982	26	22.6	No
51	Daunte Culpepper	2000	2009	22	22.3	No
52	Rich Gannon	1987	2004	22	22.1	No
53	Jeff Garcia	1999	2008	22	22.0	No
54	Dave Krieg	1980	1998	23	21.4	No
55	Frankie Albert	1946	1952	31	21.2	No
56	Bert Jones	1973	1982	24	21.1	No
57	Brad Johnson	1994	2008	20	20.3	No
58	Tobin Rote	1950	1966	29	20.3	No
59	Earl Morrall	1956	1976	25	20.2	No
60	Mark Brunell	1994	2011	20	20.1	No
61	Mark Rypien	1988	2001	21	20.0	No
62	Billy Wade	1954	1966	28	20.0	No
63	Don Meredith	1960	1968	24	19.9	No
64	Jim Everett	1986	1997	21	19.6	No
65	Matt Hasselbeck	1999	2015	18	18.3	Not El.
66	Matt Schaub	2004	2016	18	18.0	Not El.
67	Chad Pennington	2000	2010	18	18.0	No
68	Steve McNair	1995	2007	18	17.9	Border
69	Brian Sipe	1974	1983	19	17.8	No
70	Bernie Kosar	1985	1996	19	17.7	No
71	Russell Wilson	2012	2017	17	17.6	Border
72	Donovan McNabb	1999	2011	17	17.1	Border
73	Joe Theismann	1974	1985	18	16.9	No
74	Chris Chandler	1988	2004	17	16.7	No
75	George Blanda	1949	1975	21	16.4	HOF
76	Bobby Thomason	1949	1957	24	16.3	No
77	Norm Snead	1961	1976	19	16.2	No
78	Joe Ferguson	1973	1990	18	16.1	No
79	Bill Kenney	1980	1988	17	15.9	No
80	Jeff George	1990	2001	15	15.3	No
81	Bill Nelsen	1963	1972	18	15.3	No
82	George Ratterman	1947	1956	22	15.2	No
83	Jake Plummer	1997	2006	15	15.1	No
84	Phil Simms	1979	1993	16	15.0	No
85	Parker Hall	1939	1946	26	14.3	No
86	Neil Lomax	1981	1988	15	14.0	No
87.5	Tom Flores	1960	1969	17	13.9	No
87.5	Ed Brown	1954	1965	21	13.9	No
89	Babe Parilli	1952	1969	17	13.6	No
90	Bobby Hebert	1985	1996	15	13.5	No
91	Scott Mitchell	1992	2001	14	13.4	No
92	Vince Ferragamo	1977	1986	14	13.3	No
93	Charley Johnson	1961	1975	15	12.8	No
94	Danny White	1976	1988	13	12.3	No
95	Lynn Dickey	1971	1985	13	12.2	No
96	Greg Landry	1968	1984	14	11.9	No
97	Ron Jaworski	1974	1989	12	11.6	No
98	Frank Ryan	1958	1970	14	11.5	No
99	Johnny Lujack	1948	1951	17	11.4	No
100	Cecil Isbell	1938	1942	20	11.3	No
101	Archie Manning	1971	1984	12	11.2	No
102	Steve Grogan	1975	1990	12	11.2	No
103	Nick Foles	2012	2017	10	10.8	Not El.
104	Randall Cunningham	1985	2001	11	10.6	Border
105	Steve Bartkowski	1975	1986	11	10.5	No
106	Steve DeBerg	1978	1998	11	10.3	No
107	Chris Miller	1987	1999	11	10.3	No
108	Tony Eason	1983	1990	11	10.2	No
109	Jared Goff	2016	2017	10	10.0	Not El.
110	Kirk Cousins	2012	2017	10	9.9	Not El.
111	Erik Kramer	1987	1999	10	9.7	No
112	James Harris	1969	1979	11	9.4	No
113	Doug Williams	1978	1989	10	9.4	No
114	Jim Zorn	1976	1987	10	9.4	No
115	Davey O'Brien	1939	1940	17	9.3	No
116.5	Andy Dalton	2011	2017	9	9.3	Not El.
116.5	Brian Griese	1998	2008	9	9.3	No
118	Tommy Kramer	1977	1990	10	9.2	No
119	David Garrard	2002	2010	9	9.1	No
120	Eli Manning	2004	2017	9	9.1	Border
121	Eddie LeBaron	1952	1963	13	8.9	No
122	Michael Vick	2001	2015	9	8.9	Not El.
123	Jim Finks	1949	1955	13	8.8	No
124	Josh McCown	2002	2017	8	8.6	Not El.
125	Paul Christman	1945	1950	14	8.6	No
126	Rudy Bukich	1953	1968	10	8.4	No
127	Jay Schroeder	1985	1994	9	8.4	No
128	Greg Cook	1969	1973	10	8.3	No
129	Matthew Stafford	2009	2017	8	8.1	Not El.
130	Pat Haden	1976	1981	9	8.0	No
132.5	Alex Smith	2005	2017	8	8.0	Not El.
132.5	Robert Griffin	2012	2016	8	8.0	Not El.
132.5	Kerry Collins	1995	2011	8	8.0	No
132.5	Doug Flutie	1986	2005	8	8.0	No
135	Paul Governali	1946	1948	12	7.9	No
136	Frank Filchock	1938	1950	13	7.9	No
137	Dak Prescott	2016	2017	8	7.8	Not El.
139	Craig Erickson	1992	1997	8	7.6	No
139	Ken O'Brien	1984	1993	8	7.6	No
139	Frankie Sinkwich	1943	1947	13	7.6	No
141	Neil O'Donnell	1991	2003	8	7.5	No
142	Steve Beuerlein	1988	2003	7	7.2	No
143	Cam Newton	2011	2017	7	7.2	Border
144	Andrew Luck	2012	2016	7	7.1	Not El.
145	Gus Frerotte	1994	2008	7	7.0	No
146	Damon Huard	1998	2008	7	7.0	No
147	Jeff Hostetler	1988	1997	7	6.8	No
148	Jim Harbaugh	1987	2000	7	6.8	No
149	Jim McMahon	1982	1996	7	6.6	No
150	Wade Wilson	1981	1998	7	6.6	No

The future HOFers rank 1-4-5-13-18 by this litmus test: there’s not much to debate there.

Among the actual HOFers, only George Blanda — who is probably the least qualified quarterback of the “modern” era to make the HOF — ranks outside of the top 50. Bob Waterfield and Ken Stabler are the next lowest quarterbacks, and that’s consistent with how I’d view them. As a litmus test, this does a decent job for being a (somewhat) quick and dirty way to measure HOF play.

Among the Not Eligible guys, only Carson Palmer is in the top 60. He ranks 37th, on the back of a #1 season in 2015 with the Cardinals (+10.3 points, since there were 34 qualifying passers that year), a #3 season with the Bengals in 2005 (+8.25, also 34), and a 6th and 7th rankings in ’06 and ’14 (+5, +4.06). That’s not really a HOF career by any stretch, but it’s a memorable career.

Among the pure no guys — those who have been passed over and didn’t receive my subjective borderline label — you have Charlie Conerly at 26, Trent Green at 27, Boomer Esiason at 29, John Hadl at 31, Tommy Thompson at 33, and Milt Plum at 35. All good quarterbacks, occasionally great ones, who are HOVG (at worst) type players.

And then we get to the borderline guys. I gave 10 players that label, including three guys who entered the league in the last ten years and who are probably too young to really evaluate. Among the other 7…

Philip Rivers, Ken Anderson, and Tony Romo all are in the top 25, and make sense to be discussed together. None of the three won a Super Bowl, all three had fantastic efficiency numbers, and all three are more favored by the analytics crowd than the non-analytics crowd. Statistically, based on regular season efficiency, all three are clear HOF players. But, of course, that’s not the HOF test.

Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb, and Randall Cunningham are all borderline guys, too, and are underrated by an analysis like this that ignores rushing. They rank 68th, 72nd, and 104th. McNair (2003) and Cunningham (1998) each have a first place finish in ANY/A, while McNabb has a 2nd (2006) and 3rd (2004) place spot. McNair also has a 5th (2001) and a 9th (1999), while Cunningham has a 10th (1990), but that’s it, and that’s the problem. McNabb and McNair each have three finishes at 11 or 12 (worth zero) and McNabb has three more at 13/14; this analysis ignores solid seasons and rushing, which is going to hurt these guys a lot.

And then, of course, we get to Eli Manning. He was the inspiration for this post three years ago, and not much has changed since. Manning has a a 5th-place finish from 2011 (+6.1), and three 10th place finishes (2009, 2012, and 2015, each worth 1 point). He also has a 12th (2014) and a 13th (2010) place finish, but those are his only other top-15 seasons. Manning performs horribly in the ANY/A Gray Ink test for HOFers. He’s far behind Blanda, let alone the Stabler/Waterfield floor of quarterbacks.

The graph below shows the data data but with color-coded labels: black for HOF or future HOFer,red for not in, orange for not eligible, and large green dots for the borderline guys. The running quarterbacks (McNair, McNabb, Cunningham, and Newton) are at the back of the pack with Manning (the second farthest dot to the right); the three “stats stars” are to the left, and then you have Ryan who currently ranks just outside of the top 40 (the X-Axis is rank; the Y-Axis is prorated value).

What do you guys think?

Tagged as: ANY/A, Eli Manning, HOF

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