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History of the Career Receiving Touchdowns Record

Wide Receiver Jerry RiceI’ve written several histories of NFL career records, but the history of the career receiving touchdowns record is the most fascinating to me. Twelve men held the receptions title, and eleven held the receiving yards record. Seven different players held the record for rushing yards and for rushing touchdowns. Eleven quarterbacks held the passing yardage crown, while ten captured the touchdown title. This record is different. Thanks, primarily, to Don Hutson and Jerry Rice, only four players have held the record for receiving touchdowns since the NFL started keeping official statistics in 1932.

Receivers to Hold the Career Receiving Touchdowns Record

Johnny Blood (7 years as record-holder)

By the end of 1932, the first season in the official NFL record book, Blood had scored 25 receiving touchdowns. Most of those occurred in the “pre-stat” era, with 22 of his scores coming between 1926 and 1931. That includes a career high (by far) eleven touchdowns in 1931—he never had another season with more than five touchdowns. He played until 1938, slowly racking up touchdowns and retiring with 37 through the air.

Don Hutson (49 years, 3 months as record-holder)

Huston finished the 1939 season with 36 receiving touchdowns, just one shy of Blood’s record. To begin 1940, he tied the record in the third quarter of a blowout loss to the Bears, and he broke it in the opening quarter of a blowout win over the Cardinals. He got a fortunate break when WW2 took much of the talent from the NFL; during the war-depleted years, Hutson had by far his most productive touchdown seasons (1941-43 were his only three season with double-digit receiving scores). He ended his career with 99 receiving touchdowns, a number that wasn’t approached for decades.

Steve Largent (3 years as record-holder)

Largent was two touchdowns shy of the record coming into the 1989 season. Things looked dim for the receiver, who scored in week one but followed with ten straight weeks in which he failed to find the end zone. However, he was able to tie the record in game twelve and subsequently break it in week 14. The last touchdown of his storied Hall of Fame career was the one that gave him sole possession of the record. He didn’t hold the record for long, because the most prolific player of all time was already on his heels.

Jerry Rice (27 years, 10 months as record-holder, so far)

Through seven seasons (1985-91), Rice had already compiled 93 receiving touchdowns. [1]He did this despite a slow start, hauling in just three touchdown passes as a rookie. Rice then scored 15, 22, 9, 17, 13, and 14 receiving touchdowns, averaging a touchdown per game over that span. In week 12 of 1992, Rice tied Largent’s record in a victory over the Eagles. The following week, in a dominant win over the Dolphins, World gained sole possession of the record, becoming the first player in history to top the century mark. He added an incredible 96 touchdowns after that, walking away with 197 and a distant lead over anyone before or since. [2]The second and third place receivers, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, were incredibly productive for several years. Moss finished with 156, and Owens finished with 153. The two of them have a sizable … Continue reading

Future of the Career Receiving Touchdowns Record

This record seems like it’s going to last for a pretty long time. As of today, the top ten active leaders in touchdowns are:

Larry Fitzgerald – 120
Rob Gronkowski – 79
Jimmy Graham – 75
Antonio Brown – 75
Jason Witten – 72
A.J. Green – 63
Demaryius Thomas – 63
Greg Olsen – 60
Julio Jones – 57
DeSean Jackson – 55
DeAndre Hopkins – 55

Fitzgerald is 37 and is still 77 touchdowns short of the record. Gronk needs 118 to tie, which would more than double his career output to date. Given his injury history, it’s a little outlandish to expect him to come anywhere close. Graham is 122 shy and is just not very good anymore, and he hasn’t been for some time now. Brown is also 122 away, and he is both 32 years old and out of the league for being a total head case.

Witten has looked and played like an old man since he entered the league. Green looks like he aged a decade overnight. Thomas can’t find a team, and Olsen looks his age. Jones famously doesn’t score touchdowns, while Jackson is 33 and not the threat he once was.

Looking for younger players on the right track, I don’t see anyone. But let’s discuss a few anyway. How about DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Davante Adams, and Travis Kelce.

Hopkins is 28 and has 55 touchdowns. His career high was 13 in 2017. For reference, Rice had eight seasons with at least that many touchdowns (and six with more). He’d have to replicate his best season eleven times to own the record!

Evans is just 27, and he has 50 scores. He has also only had two seasons in which he played the full 16 games. With 9 touchdowns per 16 games over his career, he’d have to reproduce his career average—without missing a game—for over 15 more years. Or average 14.7 touchdowns a year over the next decade.

Beckham started his career on fire, scoring 35 touchdowns in his first three seasons. He’s one of just six players in history to accomplish that. But from 2017 to present, he has played in just 34 games and scored a mere 14 touchdowns. That means after his tremendous start he is now 148 touchdowns short of the record with no signs of reclaiming past glory.

Adams is 28 and has 46 touchdowns. Most of that came from 2016-28, during which time he scored 35 times. He had a down year in 2019, scoring just five touchdowns. That might not seem like an issue, but things have to go perfectly to take the crown from the king. Rice started slow with three touchdowns, but after that, he didn’t have a season as low as five until he was 35 years old and played in just two games. During his “peakiest” peak, from ages 24-33, his touchdown output looked like something from a video game: 15, 22, 9 (his down year), 17, 13, 14, 10, 15, 13, and 15.

Kelce will be 31 in a few weeks. He’s a scoring machine for a tight end, but with 38 touchdowns he is still 159 shy of Rice. If he was guaranteed to match his career high every year until he broke the record, he’d have to play until he was 47.

Maybe Reek Hill is a sleeper. He is a big play threat and a favorite target of a guy who throws a lot of touchdown passes. I don’t think he stands a chance. At 26, he’s already older than he seems. And he has just 33 touchdowns. Rice had 49 by that age and added 97 over the following seven seasons. Then he threw in another 51 just for funsies.

What I’m saying is this: I don’t believe any active player will break Rice’s record, even with expanded schedules.

References

References
1 He did this despite a slow start, hauling in just three touchdown passes as a rookie. Rice then scored 15, 22, 9, 17, 13, and 14 receiving touchdowns, averaging a touchdown per game over that span.
2 The second and third place receivers, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, were incredibly productive for several years. Moss finished with 156, and Owens finished with 153. The two of them have a sizable lead over fourth place Cris Carter (130), but neither is within 40 of Rice.
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Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones finished another magnificent season in 2018, and turned 30 years old yesterday. He now has over 10,000 career yards, and the most receiving yards of any player before turning 30 years old. Does that mean he might one day break the career receiving yards mark held by Jerry Rice?

The answer, of course, is probably not.  Or more like, almost certainly not. Many have tried, and none have come all that close.  Jones has leapfrogged Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Randy Moss — the three leaders in receiving yards through age 27 — but those three stars also serve as a reminder of how difficult it is to maintain greatness into your mid 30s.

The graph below shows the career receiving yards by Rice and Jones through Age X, with each age shown on the X-Axis, and career receiving yards through that age on the Y-Axis.  As you can see, Jones has a slight lead, and he’s had it for, well, his whole career (since Rice’s first season was at age 23, while Jones’s first year was at age 22): [continue reading…]

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Passing Kings, From Friedman to Manning

Friend-of-the-program Bryan Frye has contributed a fantastic guest post for us today. Bryan lives in Yorktown, Virginia, and operates his own great site at http://www.thegridfe.com/, where he focuses on NFL stats and history. Be sure to check out Bryan’s site, and let him know your thoughts on today’s posts in the comments.


Last Sunday, Peyton Manning broke the record for career touchdown passes. You may have heard about it. Rather than add more flotsam and jetsam to the vast sea of internet articles dedicated to Manning, I thought I would instead focus on the rich history of the record itself.

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Over the last three seasons, Calvin Johnson has caught 5,137 yards of passes. That’s an incredible amount, and the most by a player over any three-year span in NFL history. That stat by itself isn’t proof of Johnson’s greatness – after all, Detroit has thrown 2,040 passes over the last three years, also the most in any three-year span in football history. But records are not just about greatness: records are a function of era, teammates, and many more elements than pure ability.

So can Calvin Johnson break Jerry Rice’s career receiving yards record? The odds are very long that Johnson will go down in history as a better receiver than Rice, but his odds at breaking his receiving yards record – almost by definition – are a little higher. The man known as Megatron has 9,328 career receiving yards, the third most of any player through his age 28 season. That gives him a 1,462-yard lead on Rice at this age, although Johnson will have to keep up his outstanding pace for a very long time if he wants to capture the record. As the graph below shows, Johnson has had an edge on Rice in career receiving yards through every age of his career to date, but it was Rice’s work in his thirties that separated the GOAT from the pack: [continue reading…]

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Tavon Austin’s Record Setting Day

Fisher is introduced to Tavon Austin

Fisher is introduced to Tavon Austin.

The Tavon Austin breakout game is here. First, the #8 pick in the 2013 draft returned a punt off a bounce 98 yards for a second quarter touchdown. A few minutes later, Kellen Clemens hit him for a 57-yard touchdown pass. With St. Louis up 28-0 in the third quarter, Austin caught an 81-yard touchdown.

The third score made him just the 8th player in NFL history with three touchdowns of 50+ yards in the same game, joining Chris Johnson, Qadry Ismail, Randy Moss, Freddie Solomon, Gale Sayers, Billy Cannon, and Raymond Berry. That also means Austin has 236 yards of touchdowns today, the most of any player since 1970.

In fact, that’s the second most in NFL history. The table below shows all 78 players from 1940 to 2012 who recorded at least 160 yards worth of touchdowns in a single game.
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Two house-keeping notes before we get to today’s post. First, today’s a pretty big day for our friend Neil Paine: he’s getting married. I’ll be there to celebrate with him in Philadelphia, but I know you guys will be with us in spirit. Congrats to Kaitlyn and Neil!

And another set of confetti must be reserve for the seven members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2013: Larry Allen, Cris Carter, Jonathan Ogden, Warren Sapp, Curley Culp, Dave Robinson, and Bill Parcells. Tonight, those men will be inducted into the Hall of Fame, a must-see event for any football fan.

Today’s post focuses on one player already enshrined in Canton and one future Hall of Famer. As a general disclaimer, it’s best not to take too seriously what comes out of the mouths of football players, especially this time of year. That said, Adrian Peterson, part-cyborg, part-Minnesota Vikings running back, recently told Dan Wiederer of the Minneapolis Star Tribute that he thinks he will break Emmitt Smith’s career rushing record:

Q Forget about Eric Dickerson’s record for a minute. Last December, we talked about Emmitt Smith’s record and I told you you were on pace to get there in Week 4 of 2019. You said sooner and promised to come back with a timetable. Emmitt had 18,355 yards. You’re now 9,506 away. We need a week and a year. When do you get there?

A Man. Oh boy. I have to do some calculations. I’ve been in the league seven years. I’m already right around [9,000]. Calculate it out … Let’s think. Maybe get a couple 2,000 yard seasons … I’ve got … Hmmm … 2017.

Q What week in 2017?

A Man. I better go late. I’m already getting too far in front of myself. I’ll say Week 16. There it is. Week 16 in 2017. Whoo. That’s pushing it, huh? But hey, pushing it is the only way to do it. You know it.

Just to break it down for you in full, that gives Peterson 79 games to amass the 9,506 yards he needs to reach Smith. That comes out to a per-game average of 120.3 yards per contest with the assumption that Peterson avoids injury and doesn’t miss a game between now and Week 16 of 2017. Yes, it’s pushing it indeed. But good fun to consider, right?

Let’s talk reality. Peterson has rushed for 8,849 rushing yards in his six-year career, and was 27-years-old last year. The first problem for Peterson is that he was 937 yards behind Smith’s pace before Peterson even entered the league. That’s because Peterson, born in March, entered the league at 22, while Smith, born in May, entered at age 21. Unless you think we should compare the two by seasons and not age — and more on why that’s a bad idea later — we need to give Smith full credit for one extra year. In fact, here’s a chart comparing the two players in career rushing yards through age X. Smith also rushed for slightly more yards from ages 22 to 27 (9223-8849) than Peterson, but when you factor in his age 21 performance, Smith has a big lead on Peterson through age twenty-seven. You might recall I presented a similar chart when comparing Jason Witten to Tony Gonzalez and Jerry Rice.
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Jerry Rice’s records are essentially unbreakable. Over a marvelous twenty-year career, Rice caught 41 more touchdowns than Randy Moss, 44 more than Terrell Owens, and 67 more than every player other than Moss and Owens. He also holds the overall touchdowns mark, with 33 more touchdowns than Emmitt Smith, 46 more than LaDainian Tomlinson, and over 50 touchdowns more than every other player in NFL history. If you check the NFL records books, no player has finished his career with more than 16,000 receiving yards and fewer than 22,895 receiving yards: that’s how wide the gulf is between @JerryRice and the rest of the great wide receivers.

But there is one record that possibly, maybe, hey you never know could be broken. Jerry Rice is the career leader with 1,549 receptions. For some perspective, Steve Largent was the first player to reach the 800 receptions mark, and Art Monk passed Largent in 1992. Rice caught the still-active Monk in the final game of the 1995 regular season. Monk would retire after the season with 940 catches to his name; as he laced up his cleats for the last time, he was the career leader in receptions. When he came off the field that day, he had been relegated to number two. That’s because 700 miles away, Rice caught 12 passes against the Falcons, bringing his career total up to 942. Oh, and Rice also set the single-season record for receiving yards that day, too. Rice turned 34 in 1996; up until that point, only Charlie Joiner (325) had recorded more than 300 receptions after his age 33 season. Even though Rice missed nearly the entire 1997 season due to injury, he still caught 607 passes after 1995. Which is why we always assumed this record was unbreakable.

However, as teams began passing more frequently (and more conservatively) than ever before, some modern receivers have compiled massive receptions totals. Did you know that Tony Gonzalez is number two all-time in career receptions? With 1,242 catches, Gonzalez has a 140-catch lead on #3 man Marvin Harrison, but Gonzalez still trails Jerry Rice by 307 catches.

But what about Gonzalez’ statistical doppelganger, Jason Witten? Four years ago, I wrote that Witten was going to find himself in the Hall of Fame because of his massive numbers:

Jason Witten entered the NFL at age 21. That’s very young for a player at any position, let alone tight end. So how has he done?

  • Through age 22, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.
  • Through age 23, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.
  • Through age 25, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.
  • Through age 26 (the 2008 season), he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.
  • With 40 receptions and 472 receiving yards in 2009, he will have more receptions and more receiving yards than any other tight end through the age of twenty-seven.

Witten hasn’t slowed down since I wrote that article. With 806 receptions, he has the most catches of any player through age 30 in history (although Larry Fitzgerald should catch him next year). I thought it would be interesting to chart the career receptions totals of Rice, Witten, and Gonzalez. The graph below shows the career receptions of each player at the end of each season, with age on the X-axis and career receptions on the Y-axis. Witten is in Cowboys blue and silver; unfortunately Chiefs fans, I chose to reserve red and gold for Rice, leaving Gonzalez in Falcons black and red.

Rice Witten Gonzalez career receptions

Even now, Gonzalez has a lead on Rice, and he’ll be 36 catches ahead of Rice after 2013 even if he doesn’t catch a single pass. Of course, Rice went (literally) off the chart in his final years, making it essentially impossible for Gonzalez to catch him.

But Witten has basically had the same career as Gonzalez but with an even larger buffer against Rice. Witten’s lead on Gonzalez grew significantly this year thanks to a 110-catch season at age 30 (the year Gonzalez had just 73 catches), but ages 31 to 33 were ridiculous years for both Gonzalez and Rice. The odds are very much against Witten getting to 1,549 catches, but becoming the second player to hit the 1400-catch mark is a realistic (and incredibly impressive) goal.

The left columns in the table below shows the number of career receptions through each age for each of Rice, Gonzalez, and Witten. The right three columns show the number of catches by each player at each age.

AgeRice (C)Gonzalez (C)Witten (C)Rice (S)Gonzalez (S)Witten (S)
21033353335
220921225987
2349168188497666
24135261252869364
25200334348657396
26264397429646381
27346468523827194
2844657061710010294
29526648696807879
306107218068473110
317088208069899
3282091680611296
3394299980612283
341050106980610870
3510571149806780
36113912428068293
371206124280667
381281124280675
391364124280683
401456124280692
411519124280663
421549124280630

Witten has a nearly 200-catch lead on Rice through age thirty. If we assume Witten can stay healthy in each of the next five years, he’ll get an even bigger buffer when he hits age 35. If we give Witten 351 catches over the next five years, he’ll be at 1157, giving him a 100-catch lead on Rice. Based on what Rice did after age 35, that’s not going to be anywhere near enough. If Witten wants a realistic shot, he’s going to need to keep pumping out 90-100 catch seasons for the next four years, at least. In any event, Witten will be able to keep this dream up for awhile: he needs just 38 catches in 2013 to end the year with the most receptions of any player through age thirty-one.

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