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The Packers had a rough Movember without this guy

The Packers had a rough Movember without this guy..

Green Bay started the season 5-2 and seemed on its way to another playoff berth. But in the first quarter of the team’s eighth game, Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. The Packers lost that game (technically on Rodgers’ ledger as the starter), and have struggled ever since. In his stead, Seneca Wallace went 0-1, Scott Tolzien went 0-1-1, and then Matt Flynn got a chance to lose on Thanksgiving against the Lions before salvaging a win against the Falcons last Sunday.

Unsurprisingly, Green Bay is much worse without Rodgers. Using his .625 winning percentage as a starter this year, we might presume that the Packers would have won 3.125 out of the team’s five games that he’s missed. Instead, Green Bay has won 1.5 out of five games; that means Rodgers would have provided 1.625 Wins Above the Other QBs on the roster. (If we did not count the Bears game as a Rodgers game, then Rodgers would have provided 2.79 Wins Above the Other QBs.) Rodgers has been ruled out for the Packers’ pivotal week 15 showdown with the Cowboys; a loss there would bring Rodgers’ value up to 2.25 Wins Above the Other Green Bay QBs.

Where does that rank all time? The biggest discrepancy belongs to the 2002 Rams. The Rams started 0-4 under reigning NFL AP MVP Kurt Warner, and then lost the team’s next game when Jamie Martin started in relief of an injured Warner. For the sixth game, the team turned to Marc Bulger, who led the 0-5 team on a five game winning streak before suffering a finger injury just as the starting quarterback was ready to return. Warner started games 11 and 12, but another injury forced Martin started game 13; St. Louis lost all three games. Bulger then returned and won his 14th start. At that point in the year, St. Louis was 6-0 under Bulger and 0-8 under everyone else. In game 15 against Seattle, Bulger was hurt on the St. Louis’ fourth play from scrimmage; Martin came in and the team lost 30-10. The final game of the year was a meaningless one and started by Scott Covington, although Martin took most of the snaps in a victory over the 49ers.

All told, St. Louis went 6-1 in Bulger starts (including the Seahawks game), while the other Rams quarterbacks posted a 1-8 record. Since we would project a 1-8 team to win just 0.78 out of 7 games, Bulger is given credit for being 5.22 Wins Above the Other QBs for the team.

The table below shows all quarterbacks from 1950 to 2013 to produce at least 2 Wins Above the Other QBs for their team. The formula to calculate WAOQBs is simply the difference between the winning percentages with and without the starting quarterback multiplied by the number of starts by the quarterback or by the other quarterbacks on the team, whichever number is smaller.

YearTmQuarterbackRec w/ QBRec w/o QBWAR
2002STLMarc Bulger6-1-01-8-05.2
2009TENVince Young8-2-00-6-04.8
1979CHIMike Phipps9-1-01-5-04.4
1962BUFWarren Rabb5-1-12-5-03.5
2005MINBrad Johnson7-2-02-5-03.4
1991NORBobby Hebert8-1-03-4-03.2
1998NYGKent Graham5-1-03-7-03.2
2011CHIJay Cutler7-3-01-5-03.2
1966STLCharley Johnson7-1-11-4-03.2
2005STLJamie Martin4-1-02-9-03.1
2003DENJake Plummer9-2-01-4-03.1
2008SFOShaun Hill5-3-02-6-03
2005BUFKelly Holcomb4-4-01-7-03
1991PITBubby Brister5-3-02-6-03
1986INDGary Hogeboom3-2-00-11-03
1976PITMike Kruczek6-0-04-4-03
1975KANMike Livingston4-3-01-6-03
1971DALRoger Staubach10-0-01-3-03
1964OAKCotton Davidson4-2-11-5-13
1952RAMNorm Van Brocklin6-0-03-3-03
2004NYGKurt Warner5-4-01-6-02.9
1992NYGJeff Hostetler5-4-01-6-02.9
1999MINJeff George8-2-02-4-02.8
1960RAMFrank Ryan3-1-11-6-02.8
1963RAMRoman Gabriel5-4-00-5-02.8
1998NYJVinny Testaverde12-1-00-3-02.8
1960NYGCharlie Conerly6-1-10-3-12.8
1979NYGPhil Simms6-5-00-5-02.7
2011ARIJohn Skelton5-2-03-6-02.7
1993PHIRandall Cunningham4-0-04-8-02.7
2007MINTarvaris Jackson8-4-00-4-02.7
1999NYJRay Lucas6-3-02-5-02.7
1992DENJohn Elway8-4-00-4-02.7
1997CINBoomer Esiason4-1-03-8-02.6
1994CHISteve Walsh8-3-01-4-02.6
1965RAMRoman Gabriel3-1-01-9-02.6
1972PHIPete Liske2-4-10-7-02.5
1971HOUDan Pastorini4-4-00-5-12.5
1984CHIJim McMahon7-2-03-4-02.4
1973PITTerry Bradshaw8-1-02-3-02.4
1963OAKTom Flores8-1-02-3-02.4
2007KANDamon Huard4-6-00-6-02.4
1966PITBill Nelsen3-1-12-7-02.4
1987MINWade Wilson5-2-03-5-02.4
2003ATLMichael Vick3-1-02-10-02.3
1979BALBert Jones3-1-02-10-02.3
1968CHIVirgil Carter4-1-03-6-02.3
2009TAMJosh Freeman3-6-00-7-02.3
2001SEATrent Dilfer4-0-05-7-02.3
1994CINJeff Blake3-6-00-7-02.3
1952WASSammy Baugh3-2-01-6-02.3
1970DENPete Liske5-4-00-4-12.3
1969KANMike Livingston6-0-05-3-02.3
1966HOUGeorge Blanda3-5-00-6-02.3
1965DENJohn McCormick3-3-01-7-02.3
1973ATLBob Lee8-2-01-3-02.2
1964DALDon Meredith5-4-10-4-02.2
1964CHIRudy Bukich3-1-02-8-02.2
2002MIAJay Fiedler7-3-02-4-02.2
1996SEAJohn Friesz4-2-03-7-02.2
1986DALDanny White4-2-03-7-02.2
1985PITDavid Woodley4-2-03-7-02.2
2009CARMatt Moore4-1-04-7-02.2
2007HOUSage Rosenfels4-1-04-7-02.2
2000BUFDoug Flutie4-1-04-7-02.2
2011DENTim Tebow7-4-01-4-02.2
2000WASBrad Johnson7-4-01-4-02.2
1995OAKJeff Hostetler7-4-01-4-02.2
1950WASSammy Baugh3-4-00-5-02.1
2012ARIKevin Kolb3-2-02-9-02.1
2004CHICraig Krenzel3-2-02-9-02.1
2000CHIShane Matthews3-2-02-9-02.1
1980OAKJim Plunkett9-2-02-3-02.1
1988INDChris Chandler9-4-00-3-02.1
1988KANSteve DeBerg4-6-10-5-02
2011MIAMatt Moore6-6-00-4-02
2011INDDan Orlovsky2-3-00-11-02
2010TENVince Young4-4-02-6-02
2009BUFRyan Fitzpatrick4-4-02-6-02
2008SEASeneca Wallace3-5-01-7-02
2007NYJKellen Clemens3-5-01-7-02
2006PHIJeff Garcia5-1-05-5-02
2006OAKAndrew Walter2-6-00-8-02
2004MIAA.J. Feeley3-5-01-7-02
2000SEAJon Kitna6-6-00-4-02
2000BALTrent Dilfer7-1-05-3-02
1998CHIErik Kramer3-5-01-7-02
1997SDGStan Humphries3-5-01-7-02
1995PHIRodney Peete9-3-01-3-02
1994ARIJay Schroeder5-3-03-5-02
1992NWEScott Zolak2-2-00-12-02
1992SEAKelly Stouffer2-5-00-9-02
1991SFOSteve Bono5-1-05-5-02
1990GNBDon Majkowski4-4-02-6-02
1986RAIMarc Wilson5-3-03-5-02
1983SDGDan Fouts5-5-01-5-02
1983HOUOliver Luck2-4-00-10-02
1977TAMGary Huff2-4-00-8-02
1976BUFJoe Ferguson2-5-00-7-02
1974SFOTom Owen4-3-02-5-02
1969ATLBob Berry4-3-02-5-02
1968BOSMike Taliaferro3-4-01-6-02
1966OAKTom Flores7-2-11-3-02
1966DENMax Choboian3-4-01-6-02
1961PITRudy Bukich4-3-02-5-02
1960GNBLamar McHan4-0-04-4-02
1957NYGCharlie Conerly6-2-01-3-02

A couple of polarizing figures in recent history make the cut. In 2011, Tim Tebow went 7-4 for the Broncos while Kyle Orton went 1-4, in a season none of us fully understood. And in 2009 and 2010, the Titans went 12-6 under Vince Young, and 2-11 under Kerry Collins and 0-1 under Rusty Smith.

Another interesting name on there is Jay Cutler. In 2011, he went 7-3, while backups Caleb Hanie and Josh McCown combined for a 1-5 record for the Bears. This year, Cutler is 4-4 as the starter, while McCown has posted better numbers and has a 3-2 record. Chicago is giving the start this weekend to Cutler, in a move that is ripe for second guessing.

  • JWL

    I knew Gabriel would be on there. The Rams were different when he played.

  • James

    I note that while Jamie Martin helped boost Bulger’s WOWY score in 2002, Bulger returned the favor in 2005!

  • Chase Stuart

    Rodgers is back for week 17. So through 16 weeks, Green Bay went 5-3 with Rodgers, 2-4-1 with other QBs. That means Rodgers was 1.875 wins above the other QBs on the roster (in seven games, Rodgers would be projected to win 4.375 games). If you count the Bears loss as a non-Rodgers game, that changes the numbers to 5-2 and 2-5-1, and make Rodgers 2.81 wins above average. That’s because you would project the other Packers QBs to win 2.19 of the 7 games that Rodgers started.

  • Chase Stuart

    The Packers finished the year 6-2 with Rodgers (excluding the Bears loss) and 2-5-1 without Rodgers, making him Rodgers 3.5 wins above average.

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