We’ve built up one of the most intelligent and loyal communities on the internet here at Football Perspective. But writing a post every day can be a bit of a challenge. That would have turned into an even larger time commitment had I not been lucky to receive some great guest articles. And while I have been fortunate enough to receive some free-lance submissions in every sense of the word, a better scenario would be one where those writers get to enjoy the fruits of their labor.

Right now, the site doesn’t make any real money. That’s somewhat by (lack of) design, and somewhat the product of poor management. I didn’t create Football Perspective to make money; I created it to have an outlet for my thoughts. The fact that I have posted an article here for 1,341 consecutive days is a point of pride, but no one owes me anything. It’s my choice to write, or not to write, and the fact that I have repeatedly chosen to write must mean it makes sense (or that I am an irrational actor).

But as the site has grown, and as the time commitment to FP has increased, and as guest writers are getting more interested in creating great content, I’m realizing that I have done a poor job of keeping up with the growth of the site. There is just one ad at the top of the page, and that doesn’t bring in any notable revenue. If I, as a site owner, was generating revenue, I’d be able to compensate guest writers. So that falls on me, and to the extent it limits my guest submissions, well, then it falls a little bit on all of us.

I have spent some time trying to think of what’s the right vision for this site, but my readers are much better at this stuff than I am. Nobody knows this site better than you, and nobody is more interested in hearing your thoughts than me. The great thing about this community is that I believe the future of this site is just as important to you guys as it is to me. Does that mean going to a real ad-based model (which I would probably need some help in implementing)? Does it mean teaming up with a larger site — bringing FP to a different platform? What other solutions are out there? I don’t really know, which is why I open this up to you.

I end a lot of posts asking you to please leave your thoughts in the comments. But today, I really mean it.

As always, the AP All-Pro selections need to come with a few disclaimers.

• As the great historian John Turney points out, the AP is just one source of NFL awards, and not the source.

• The way the AP selects its second team is dumb. Well, that’s being kind, because it assumes the AP actually selects a second team. It doesn’t.

• The way the AP selects its first team is kind of dumb, too. Voters can vote for the same player at different positions! That can lead to odd “splitting the ballot” scenarios, and also to the crazy result that happened in Oakland this year. Kudos to Jason Lisk for shining some light on this topic every year.

With that said, let’s get to the results.

Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina, 40; Carson Palmer, Arizona, 6; Tom Brady, New England, 3; Russell Wilson, Seattle, 1. [continue reading…]

Thanks to the tireless work of Mike Kania and his team on the P-F-R staff, PFR has now generated the Approximate Values for every player in the NFL this year. For the uninitiated, you can review how AV is calculated here. And if you’re so inclined, you can thank Mike or PFR on twitter. [continue reading…]

If you’re reading this blog, chances are you already know all about our friends at Football Outsiders and the terrific analysis they provide every year. However, if by some chance you don’t know of them, or maybe you haven’t heard about their outstanding annual book, they now have copies of the 2015 Football Outsiders Almanac available for purchase. The book is jam-packed with FO’s signature data (including game-charting stats), plus the usual stat-geeky essays, team and player previews, and 2014 projections. And it’s not just the NFL, as Football Outsiders has some pretty sharp minds (Matt Hinton, Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau) covering the college game, too.

Football Outsiders has been a supporter of Chase Stuart for a while and Football Perspective from the beginning. But don’t confuse this for charity post: the FOA is a great guide, and I’m sure anyone who buys it will be very happy. Here’s the link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/store

After working on the Almanac for the past two years, due to time constraints, I wasn’t able to contribute in 2015. But I am still happy to endorse one of the most thorough football products produced every year.

On June 15, 2012, I launched Football Perspective. Since that day, Football Perspective has posted at least one new article every single day. This is the site’s 1,249th post, so I won’t blame you if you’ve missed an article here or there. At the top of every page is a link to the Historical Archive, a page that is updated after each post is published.

In what is becoming an annual tradition, I use this space every June 15th to thank the people who have helped make this site successful.  And, as it turns out, every year I feel indebted to even more people.   And this year, that starts with you.

“Never read the comments” is a meme that has near-universal support on the internet.  But that’s not true here, and that’s because Football Perspective’s regular commenters are not just some of the smartest football minds on the planet, but some of the nicest.  And that means the world to me.

Consider, for a minute, what Brad Oremland is doing.  Brad’s a senior writer at Sports-Central, and he planned on writing a series on the greatest quarterbacks of all time this off-season.  And while he’s running that series there, he’s co-running it here, too.  Why? Because of you. Because when smart people put out great work, they want to hear what other smart people have to say.  The fact that a great football mind like Brad is eager to post stuff here just to get feedback from this site’s commenters is a remarkable advertisement for this community.  I remain indebted to the many great folks who comment on this site, and your love, intelligence, and civility motivates me to keep this thing going. [continue reading…]

The color-coded schedule is back!

Download the Excel file here

That Excel file contains full page and wallet-sized copies of the schedule, in both color and black and white. On the wallet-sized copies, the line between weeks 8 and 9 has been enlarged — that is where you want to fold the paper in half to put in your wallet.

iPhone page: http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-iphone-schedule1.png

Go to that page on your phone, then hit your power and home button at the same time to take a photo (or hit the button on the middle of the Safari browser and click ‘save image.’) The schedule has been formatted to fit an iPhone screen, so you can always carry the schedule with you.

Of course, you don’t need an iPhone or Excel to view the NFL schedule: [continue reading…]

1,000 days ago, Football Perspective opened its doors. There has been a post every day since then.

So while yesterday was the most exciting day in the NFL in a month, we will be taking the rest of the day off.

This article should have been written two years ago. At the latest, it should have been written last year. Technically, we’re still a few hours away from the title of this article being accurate and/or breaking news, but there’s no drama left in New York. Ryan is going to be fired as the Jets head coach.

The Jets went “all in” from 2009 to 2011 in the hopes of winning a Super Bowl. New York got very, very close, reaching consecutive AFC Championship Games in 2009 and 2010. After the 2008 season, the Jets had a talented roster but were in need of a new head coach and a new quarterback. Then general manager Mike Tannenbaum tabbed Rex Ryan as that man. Ryan retained offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and then New York traded up to acquire Mark Sanchez.

At that point, the fates of Tannenbaum, Ryan, Schottenheimer, and Sanchez were aligned. Other than the owner, the general manager, head coach, offensive coordinator ^[1]Particularly when the head coach has a defensive background., and the quarterback may be the four most important men in any football organization. Together, the quartet began a new era of Jets football. And it was very successful… for two seasons.

The 2011 season was very disappointing, with a cherry on top being a disaster of a finale in Miami. The Jets then decided to move on from Schottenheimer, which made sense: things roll downhill in all walks of life, and the NFL is no different. Sure, Sanchez had turned into a bust, and maybe Ryan had lost control of the team, and perhaps Tannenbaum’s drafting had taken a turn for the worse, but maybe, just maybe, the team’s troubles were all the fault of the offensive coordinator! As a first step, keeping the nucleus intact but with a new coordinator made sense: it was the path of least change.

Unfortunately, Schottenheimer’s replacement turned out to be Tony Sparano, so you can imagine how that ended. After the 2012 season, the Jets fired Tannenbaum, and Sparano, and the majority of the defensive coaches moved on, too. ((DC Mike Pettine went to Buffalo,while Ass. HC/LB coach Bob Sutton, Ass. DB coach Jim O’Neil, OLB coach Mike Smith, and Ass. DL coach Anthony Weaver all left, too.) Sanchez was only retained because of his enormous cap figure, but he had also played his last regular season game for the Jets. At that point, firing Rex made a lot of sense. [continue reading…]

When John Schneider sent a 1st round draft pick ^[1]And a little more. As it turned out, the Vikings drafted Xavier Rhodes, Jerick McKinnon, and Travis Bond with those picks. That looks even better today than it did a year and a half ago. to Minnesota for the right to pay Percy Harvin $67M over six years, it looked like a risky move that might pay off if a whole bunch of “ifs” came true. Today? After paying Harvin more than eighteen (18!) million dollars and getting little in return, the Seahawks are sending him to the Jets for a conditional pick (rumored to be a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, depending on what exactly those conditions are). The 2012 transaction now looks like one of the worst trades in recent NFL history. What was Seattle thinking?

Let’s travel back in time to October 31, 2012. Would you be shocked to learn that Percy Harvin may have been the best wide receiver in football? To measure this, I looked at how all receivers had performed over the trailing 365 days. The table below shows the production for each receiver from week 9 of the 2011 season through week 8 of the 2012 season. I’ve also calculated each wideout’s fantasy points, with 0.5 points given for each reception, 0.1 points for each yard from scrimmage, and 6 points for each offensive touchdown. Since, due to bye weeks, some receivers could have played between 15 and 17 games, the table includes the 20 wide receivers with the most fantasy points but is sorted by FP/G: [continue reading…]

I went on the Three Cone Drill Podcast with Rivers McCown and Danny Tuccitto to talk when, football and stats. You can listen to it below.

For you twitter folks, you can follow the Three-Cone Drill Podcast here, Rivers here, and Danny here. And be sure to check the Three-Cone Drill website, which updates regularly with podcasts (iTunes page is here) and posts. Thanks again to Rivers and Danny for having me on.

Congrats to Andrew Healy, who is now working with Football Outsiders. His first post went up today.

Since 1979, teams have covered the point spread by more than 17 points almost exactly 10 percent of the time. Going back to 2003, the New England Patriots have now done it half the time (5 out of 10) after losing the previous game by more than 14 points. We want to be cautious with this kind of split given the small sample size, but this is pretty remarkable given how rarely teams exceed expectations by so much….

To put how unusual this is into context, take an average team that beats the spread by 17-plus points exactly 10 percent of the time. What is the chance that team would beat the spread by 17-plus points five (or more) times out of ten? 0.2 percent! So this is a case where a small sample size really does tell us something. Over the last decade, the Patriots have been completely on their own island in their propensity for following big losses with surprisingly strong wins. And it looks like more than randomness. Note that I am counting 2008, too. If we only include the Brady era, following big losses the Patriots have beaten the point spread by more than 17 points four out of seven times.

You can read the full article here. And you can view all of Andrew’s posts at Football Perspective here or here.

And again, congrats Andrew! I’m sure he would appreciate some love from you guys in the comments, either here or over at FO.

Easily the best football news of the day:

http://www.footballperspective.com/historical-archive/

There have been 964 posts at Football Perspective. You can now view all of them at the (going forward) always-up-to-date historical archive page. For new readers, there’s a link at the very top of every page to the Historical Archive.

Yes, I am unreasonably happy about its return.

I was invited back for a third visit over at the Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats) podcast. You can click here to listen to me and Dave Collins discuss the Jets, Game Scripts, some week three predictions, and more. Give it a listen; the AFA podcast is great, and I’d recommend listening to it every week (you can click the following links to subscribe for free to the AFA Podcast on iTunes or Stitcher.)

Tomorrow morning, you can hear me on SiriusXM Channel 111, the SiriusXM Internet Radio App, or online at siriusxm.com. I’ll be speaking with Shane Jensen, Eric Bradlow, Cade Massey, and Adi Wyner about the 2014 NFL season for about 25 minutes, despite my best efforts to turn it into a Don Maynard appreciation show. The program is live, so feel to call in if you have the time. Based on the program’s twitter feed, I surmise that the call-in number is 1-844-WHARTON.

I’ve been doing some radio spots this offseason, and that number will probably go up a bit over the next few months. I’ll do my best to post updates on here, but the best place for Football Perspective news would be on the twitter feed.

Friend of the program Stephanie Stradley (@StephStradley) interviewed me over at her blog at the Houston Chronicle to discuss quarterback stats.

Some folks have the point of view that rookie quarterbacks should sit and learn. Some folks have the point of view that the only way a young quarterback can learn is by getting a ton of first team reps in practice and then playing real games. Do the numbers say anything about this?

“This is always going to be an impossible question to answer. We don’t live in a counter-factual world, and nobody knows what would have happened to David Carr if he sat on the bench for a couple of years. Ryan Mallett might benefit from having sat behind Tom Brady for three years, or he might just be the next Curtis Painter (or Brian Hoyer or Jim Sorgi or Rohan Davey).

That said, I’m pretty skeptical of the idea that a quarterback needs to sit and learn. There’s nothing wrong with sitting and learning, but I don’t think it makes a quarterback better.  Aaron Rodgers was great right away after sitting for three years; had he started right away, he almost certainly would not have been that good, but I don’t doubt that he would have still turned into the superstar he is today.

One thing that isn’t really true: rookie quarterbacks aren’t really starting much earlier than they used to. In general, top picks always got a chance pretty early in their careers.”

You can read the full article here.

Yesterday, Neil Paine previewed the NFC East teams over at FiveThirtyEight. Today, yours truly is up with a look at the NFC West.

The Cardinals won 10 games last year, only the second time the team reached double digits in victories since moving to Arizona in 1988. Their run defense was the key. The Cardinals allowed just 1,351 rushing yards, the fewest in the NFL. They ranked first in rushing defense DVOA, Football Outsiders’ main defensive statistic, and stuffed opposing ball-carriers for no gain or a loss on 28 percent of runs, the most in the NFL.

But three of the key players responsible for that success are gone, including inside linebacker Karlos Dansby. Dansby was one of just two players in 2013 to record 100 tackles, more than four sacks, and more than four interceptions. He is a very good run defender, but he is also a strong pass-rusher and is excellent in pass coverage. Of course, that’s why the Cleveland Browns signed him to a four-year, $24 million deal on the first day of free agency.

The Cardinals were prepared for Dansby’s departure, but the other two exits left the team with little time to find a solution. In June, starting inside linebacker Daryl Washington was suspended for the season for (again) violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Like Dansby, Washington is a versatile player: He’s a great pass-rusher (his nine sacks in 2012 were the most by an inside linebacker since Bart Scott’s 9.5 in 2006) and above-average in coverage, in addition to being a strong run-defender.

And last Monday, defensive end Darnell Dockett was lost for the season after tearing the ACL in his right knee. Dockett is not just an above-average 3-4 defensive end against the run, but a team leader and — along with superstar wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald — the player on the team with the longest tenure.

You can read the full article here.

There’s no more enjoyable community than the Football Perspective community. Over the past few months, I’ve been devoting more time to my day job, which is a very good thing. The only downside, of course, is that it leaves less time for me to devote to Football Perspective. And while The Streak is still alive, it would be nice to have guest posts from time to time.

For awhile, I was lucky to have the uber-talented Neil Paine as a guest writer at Football Perspective, but then 538 snatched him away. Then, Andrew Healy emerged out of nowhere and has been a fantastic guest writer in his own right. Well, the ink isn’t dry, but I’m hoping that Andrew has leveraged his exposure here at Football Perspective into another great gig. I’ll be sure to let you know if that happens, although I hope regardless we’ll still be seeing some of Andrew around here. ^[1]Is this an unbashed way of saying contributing at Football Perspective is a good way to get noticed? Absolutely! But it sure wouldn’t hurt to have another writer or two who was willing to contribute.

To be clear, Football Perspective has always encouraged guest submissions: Steve Buzzard was a fan of the site and submitted a couple of guest posts. ^[2]And Steve has since been hired by Footballguys.com. And, of course, there was Shattenjager’s legendary post on the Swamp Fox. But in case you weren’t clear, Football Perspective willingly accepts guest post submissions. If you ever want to submit a guest post, all you need to do is write it and email it to me at chase[at]footballperspective[dotcom]. I don’t need a bio or an explanation for why you should be considered for a guest post: at Football Perspective, content trumps all.

Football Perspective is teaming up again with the fine folks at FanDuel to provide another promotion for our readers. As you know, Football Perspective turns down just about advertising requests. But this is different, and frankly, this isn’t even advertising. Because we’ve got a great community here, FanDuel is happy to bring a fun promotion to those readers who may be interested in playing.

For the uninitiated, FanDuel is fantasy football with a twist: you compete for real money by selecting any player you want each week under a salary cap format. Each player has a price, so the goal is to figure out who are the undervalued players and fit nine starters under a salary cap. Instead of drafting a team for a season, you draft a team for a week, as frequently or infrequently as you like (i.e., you can enter every week, or play in week 1, week 3, and then every week the rest of the year starting in week 10 — and not be behind the curve). You can compete in games for as little as $1 or as much as $535 per game. Once you play around with the site, you’ll see all the different options: head-to-head games, 50/50 games, 3-man, 5-man, 10-man, 20-man, or big tournament games.

That’s cool, but what’s really cool is that because FanDuel is a fan of Football Perspective, the site is offering a great promotion. If you haven’t deposited money with FanDuel before, a 100% deposit bonus (for up to $200) will be provided to Football Perspective readers. Click here to sign up by clicking the orange “Play Now” button, and the promo code PERSPECTIVE will be entered for you.  If you put down $100, you’ll now have $200 to play with.  Deposit $200, and you’ll get $400. That’s a pretty sweet deal. If you have experience any problems, please post a note here in the comments or email support[at]fanduel[dot]com.

Another cool feature: if there’s enough interest, FanDuel has offered to set up some a weekly tournament among Football Perspective readers.  In any event, I plan on competing most weeks this year — and, of course, blogging about it — as I think the daily game space is one of the most exciting parts of fantasy football. I’ll be competing as ChasePerspective.

So how do you play? You pick 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, and 1 DT each week. There’s a salary cap of $60K. And that’s pretty much all you need to know.  Of course, here are some of my thoughts on strategy: [continue reading…]

As regular readers know, this website has been experiencing some significant issues over the past couple of days. For long stretches, the website was down, and certain pages have been unavailable throughout this period.

Why? That’s the tricky part. I’m not a tech guy, but as best I can tell, there were two issues:

1) Server trouble

The site is run on HostGator, and their customer support has been as effective as the Cowboys defense. I was informed that HG had temporarily restricted access to MySQL, which turned into several long stretches of temporary restrictions. I was also told that HG could not tell me what the problem was.

Initially, I was told that I had too many active plugins. I was using 20 plugins, and all seemed pretty useful, but I deactivated a few in hopes of fixing this problem. It did not. It may have been because traffic has been spiking (good news/bad news!), or it could be because I was using too many resources. I was basically told to go figure it out myself.

One solution would be to move the account to a dedicated server. A cheaper option would be to figure out how to optimize MySQL resource usage. I’ve also been told by some friends that there are even “simpler” solutions, including using a caching plugin. So I’ve tried doing that now, too, although that of course involves using another plugin.

Right now, the site is working just fine. And I’ve got a caching plugin going, which hopefully works. I also have tried to deactivate some other plugins. Will this fix the problem? I have no idea.

How you can help

I have no tech experience. When I started this site a little over two years ago, my biggest concern was the tech side of things. I’ve been able to survive with only a few bumps along the way, but I could really use a few helping hands. If you know are a developer, or understand what MySQL resource usage means, or have thoughts on how to fix things, they would be greatly appreciated. And if you can provide help with issue #2, that would be great, too.

2) Spammers

One IP address in Turkey tried to access the site 1210 times in one hour. This was the cause of the most recent restriction imposed by HG, and I think HG for actually telling me the reason this time. They also went ahead and banned that IP address.

Has this been happening before? Are other IP addresses trying to spam the site? As I understand it, certain countries are notorious for this, so some similar sites have been any IP address from those countries. To the extent you guys could help me figure out how to do this, or if this is an issue for my site, that would be great, too (I think you can do this in Cpanel, although again, this is not my area of expertise).

Summary

I could use some tech help. I’m doing my best to keep things running, but I have a day job that demands a significant amount of my time. As you can imagine, writing takes up quite a bit of time, too. As a result, there’s no time left over for me to handle tech issues. What’s the solution? I’m working on a couple, but a great short-term solution would be if any Football Perspective fans could offer some tech guidance.

Thanks, and I apologize for the intermittent site issues over the past few days.

Chase

Regular readers know that I’m one of the writers at Footballguys.com. I think regular readers know that I’m not a very good salesman, either. But if you are a hardcore fantasy footballer, you probably already know that Footballguys.com is the single best source for fantasy football information. If you are a more casual fantasy football player, you’ll find that the tools available at Footballguys will make life much, much easier for you to win your league(s). Either way, I think a Footballguys.com subscription is a fantastic value for $29.95. Also fantastic values: the Footballguys Draft Dominator for mobile devices, which costs $4.99.

I don’t make extra money if more people sign up for Footballguys or buy an app, but I hope my readers subscribe because I think a subscription is a really good deal. If you play fantasy football and want to win your competitive league or save hours doing research for your local league, a Footballguys subscription is well worth it. For $29.95, you get:

• Always up to date and informed projections and rankings, along with 50,000 + pages of Footballguys Insider content.
• The Footballguys Draft Dominator (the single most valuable tool in all of fantasy football, IMO), along with the Lineup Dominator and Projections Dominator. Even if you don’t sign up for Footballguys, you can play around with Doug Drinen’s ultra-cool Rate My Team application for free.
• The Footballguys Insiders contest, giving you a chance at over $35,000 in prizes — this is 100% free to subscribers.
• During the season, My FBG is a fantastic customizable tool that makes roster management incredibly easy. If you’re in multiple fantasy leagues, this is a lifesaver, and can be fully integrated with certain league management systems.
• I won’t list every reason to sign up, but you can check out the Why Subscribe? link or just play around on the FBG homepage.
• In addition to everything else, a money-back guarantee. In the 11 years I’ve been at Footballguys, they’ve always offered this feature, and it’s almost never used. There’s a reason for that.

Anyway, I’m not very good at the salesman thing, so I’ll wrap things up.

If you’re reading this blog, chances are you already know all about our friends at Football Outsiders and the terrific analysis they provide every year. However, if by some chance you don’t know of them, or maybe you haven’t heard about their outstanding annual book, they now have copies of the 2014 Football Outsiders Almanac available for purchase. The book is jam-packed with FO’s signature data (including game-charting stats), plus the usual stat-geeky essays, team and player previews, and 2014 projections. And it’s not just the NFL, as Football Outsiders has some pretty sharp minds (Matt Hinton, Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau) covering the college game, too.

For the second year in a row, I have contributed to the Almanac. I wrote team essays for the Giants  and Jets (only one of those teams has a great defense and a terrible offense!), along with player comments for both of those teams. If you enjoy my work here, you’ll probably enjoy reading what I wrote about those teams.

Football Outsiders has been a supporter of Chase Stuart for a while and Football Perspective from the beginning. But don’t confuse this for charity post: the FOA is a great guide, and I’m sure anyone who buys it will be very happy.

On June 15, 2012, I launched Football Perspective. Since that day, Football Perspective has posted at least one new article every single day. This is the site’s 856th post, so I won’t blame you if you’ve missed an article here or there. At the top of every page is a link to the Historical Archive, a page that is updated after each post is published.

It continues to amaze me how many of you come here and stop by every day.  I thank you for that. Your support is truly appreciated, and I hope to continue to earn your trust and devotion.  I have a lot of people to thank for the success of the site, so I hope you’ll indulge me in allowing me to express some gratitude today.

So thank you to my parents and brother, for well, everything. Today being Father’s Day, it’s a doubly good time to thank my parents for being great parents, and my brother for being a great brother.

Thank you to David Dodds and Joe Bryant for hiring me twelve years ago. The first step in my journey as a football writer was getting hired at Footballguys.com, and I’ve been there ever since. There aren’t two better bosses in the world than David and Joe.

Thank you to Doug Drinen, who spent countless hours mentoring me.  Doug is the best teacher I’ve ever met, and I’m thankful he spent the time teaching me his ways. Doug’s still the best football writer I know, even if he’s largely retired from the game. [continue reading…]

The color-coded NFL schedule is back!

Download the Excel file here: 2014-NFL-SCHEDULE

That Excel file contains full page and wallet-sized copies of the schedule, in both color and black and white. On the wallet-sized copies, the line between weeks 8 and 9 has been enlarged — that is where you want to fold the paper in half to put in your wallet.

iPhone page: http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014-iphone-schedule.png

Go to that page on your phone, then hit your power and home button at the same time to take a photo (or hit the button on the middle of the Safari browser and click ‘save image.’) The schedule has been formatted to fit an iPhone screen, so you can always carry the schedule with you.

Of course, you don’t need an iPhone or Excel to view the NFL schedule: [continue reading…]

Every April 1st, friend-of-the-program Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) releases his Rookie Scouting Portfolio. The RSP is, well, insane. It’s a 251-page draft guide that not only provides rankings and analysis of 164 players, but also provides over 1,000 pages of scouting checklists and play-by-play notes.

Matt does top-notch work year round, and I can confidently state that the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the most comprehensive analysis of rookie draft prospects at the offensive skill positions I’ve ever seen. But it’s not just about rankings and his analysis; he makes the evaluation process as transparent as possible to the reader, by identifying:

• Players that have boom-bust potential, players who may have already maxed out their potential, or players with great upside.
• Breakdowns/rankings of players by individual skills at the position.
• Player comparisons to past NFL players based on style and builds.
• Overall rankings and comparisons in cheat sheet/table format with pertinent measurements and workout results.
• Overall rankings with written explanations in paragraph form.
• Overrated, underrated, and long-term projects.
• Fantasy-friendly tiered cheat sheets.

Matt documents what he sees with play-by-play detail. Yes, that’s a lot of work. No, you don’t have to read that part of the book to get tremendous value from the RSP. And here’s something pretty neat: Matt ranks every player graded by position and then writes a post-draft analysis with rankings assembled in a tiered cheat sheet. This is free with the RSP purchase and available a week after the NFL Draft.

The RSP is $19.95 and available at www.mattwaldman.com. Matt donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit that combats sexual abuse through individual community and training to recognize how to prevent and address the issue. All told, the RSP contains nearly 1300 pages this year. If you’re the type who likes to read testimonials, well, Matt has lots of those. He’s also provided a few sample evaluations from prior years that you can review.

In December, I let you know that Nate Silver’s new FiveThirtyEight had made the smart decision to hire Neil Paine.  On Monday, the website opened its doors, so I wanted to make sure my readers were aware that Neil is (thankfully) back in the writing game.  You can read all of Neil’s posts here. Of course, the full site is worth checking out, too.

I’m confident that Football Perspective’s readers are some of the brightest on the internet. Now, perhaps, comes a chance to prove it. The Journal of Sports Analytics is asking for submissions, and this new journal aims to be the central forum for the discussion of practical applications of sports analytics research, serving team owners, general managers, coaches, fans, and academics. The journal is requesting analytical research on any single sport or across sports that seeks to improve the understanding of the game or strategies for improving a team or a league. More information is available here.

Several journals exist that touch on the sports analytics field, but the focus practical application is what I think will make the Journal of Sports Analytics stand out (and also make it more appealing to the average reader). The journal’s advisory board is very impressive, and comprises Rich Cho, Tim Connelly, Marc Cuban, Eric DeCosta, Kevin Demoff, Dell Demps, Jessica Gelman, Dan Kantrovitz, Tony Khan, Ted Leonsis, Sig Mejdal, and Daryl Morey. The editorial board further includes top sports analysts and practitioners from various teams and leagues across a variety of sports. The publisher is IOS Press.  The co-editors in chief are Philip Maymin and Eugene Shen.

There are no author submission fees, and all submissions will be double-blind peer reviewed. Initial submissions must be in PDF format and anonymized (names, affiliations, and acknowledgments removed), but otherwise may be in any convenient style. There are no page limits. If accepted for publication, your paper must be revised to meet the journal’s style guidelines.

Your submission may not be under review at any other journal while it is under review at the Journal of Sports Analytics and it may not have been previously published or accepted for publication in a journal. Presentations at conferences, appearances in conference proceedings, and working papers posted online are typically not considered as previous publication, and such submissions are welcomed. It is often useful to incorporate comments from seminars and conferences into a longer, more detailed version to submit to the journal for review.  Contact information for Philip and Eugene is available at the journal’s website.

In early October, I went on the Advanced NFL Podcast with host Dave Collins.  This time of year is fruitful for good discussion, so Dave invited me back on the show. In Dave’s words, we began

by breaking down the historical context of Peyton Manning’s single season passing touchdown record. They then cover the Carolina Panthers and break down the changes they’ve made over the past year, the storylines surrounding Cam Newton, and how overall team performance can sometimes obfuscate an individual player’s development

Next, Chase takes to his soapbox to make the case that the Jets should fire Rex Ryan and explains how retaining him would set a unique historical precedent. Next, they turn their sights to the Giants and discuss what to make of Eli Manning’s interception spike.

The episode concludes with a look ahead to the week 17 Bears/Packers and Cowboys/Eagles matchups. Chase weighs in on what he’s most excited for in this year’s playoffs, and why playing a Superbowl outdoors might actually be more fair than playing in a dome.

You can listen to it here, and can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

This year, the NFL has eliminated the AFC/NFC distinction, and just selected Pro Bowlers at each position. The results:

Quarterback: Tom Brady, Patriots; Drew Brees, Saints; Peyton Manning, Broncos; Cam Newton, Panthers; Philip Rivers, Chargers; Russell Wilson, Seahawks.

No surprises here. With a full season, Nick Foles and Aaron Rodgers would have made this a more competitive race.

Running back: Jamaal Charles, Chiefs; Matt Forte, Bears; Frank Gore, 49ers; Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks; LeSean McCoy, Eagles; Adrian Peterson, Vikings.

Six of the seven rushing leaders, with Gore jumping ahead of Alfred Morris (fifth in rushing yards).

Fullback: Marcel Reece, Raiders; Mike Tolbert, Panthers.

Clear-cut picks if you read my Fullback Report.

Wide receiver: Antonio Brown, Steelers; Dez Bryant, Cowboys; Josh Gordon, Browns; A.J. Green, Bengals; Andre Johnson, Texans; Calvin Johnson, Lions; Brandon Marshall, Bears; Demaryius Thomas, Broncos.

Six of the top 7 leaders in receiving yards made it, with Alshon Jeffery missing out. Marshall is 11th in receiving yards but in the top seven in both receptions and receiving touchdowns, while Bryant ranks 15th in receiving yards but is tied for the lead among wide receivers in touchdowns.

Tight End: Jordan Cameron, Browns; Vernon Davis, 49ers; Jimmy Graham, Saints; Julius Thomas, Broncos.

If Cameron had 16 more receiving yards, these would be the top four tight ends in fantasy points. Instead it’s four of the top five, overlooking Tony Gonzalez. There’s a good chance Gonzalez makes his 14th Pro Bowl by the time the game comes around.

Tackle: Branden Albert, Chiefs; Jason Peters, Eagles; Tyron Smith, Cowboys; Joe Staley, 49ers; Joe Thomas, Browns; Trent Williams, Redskins.
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As you may have heard, Neil Paine is joining Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. Neil, in addition to being a good friend and one of the men responsible for making this site a reality, has also written some great articles at Football Perspective. And, he’s even got another article or two on tap before he heads off to FiveThirtyEight.

So in addition to thanking Neil for all his great work, and to congratulate him on getting the platform he justly deserves, I wanted to make sure my readers all knew where to find Neil in 2014. I’m sure he’ll be checking this post from time to time, so feel free to leave Neil a note in the comments.