Rushing EPA and Yards per Carry

July 15, 2014 Rushing

Today I want to look at how traditional rushing statistics compare to rushing Expected Points Added, one of the main stats used over at Advanced Football Analytics. In my analysis, I used the EPA numbers for each team in each season from 2002 to 2013. Stickiness from year to year Yards per carry is not […]

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Analyzing the rushing stats of each team in 2013

July 6, 2014 Rushing

A couple of weeks ago, Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats) wrote a great post on the value of a first down. From that post, we concluded that the marginal value of a first down is 9 yards, and we’ve previously determined that the marginal value of a touchdown is 20 […]

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The Value of a First Down

June 25, 2014 Statgeekery

What is the value of a first down? By that I mean, how many marginal yards is a first down actually worth? Here’s another way to word the question: If 3 first downs and 80 yards are worth X, then 2 first downs and [???] many yards are equal to X? Calculating the marginal value […]

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Advanced NFL Podcast – Appearance #2

December 28, 2013 Announcements

In early October, I went on the Advanced NFL Podcast with host Dave Collins.  This time of year is fruitful for good discussion, so Dave invited me back on the show. In Dave’s words, we began by breaking down the historical context of Peyton Manning’s single season passing touchdown record. They then cover the Carolina […]

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Advanced NFL Stats Podcast

October 3, 2013 Announcements

Advanced NFL Stats has rolled out a podcast this year, and host Dave Collins invited me on the show this week. You can hear me ramble for 35 minutes here, where we discuss two point conversions, game scripts, and gush about Peyton Manning. Brian Burke has had a great site for years, but Dave is […]

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Are advanced statistical analysts the next Pete Gogolak – Part I

November 20, 2012 Strategy

You know the name Pete Gogolak, don’t you? The former Buffalo Bill placekicker is a famous figure in football history for two reasons. First, he played a key role in the merger between the AFL and NFL in the 1960s.1 He’s also remembered for what he did on the field: Gogolak is widely credited with […]

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