Mike Mularkey went for it on 4th and 10 in overtime

November 19, 2012 Coaches

With 2:36 remaining in overtime, the Jacksonville Jaguars were at the Houston 47-yard line. It was 4th-and-10, following two short incomplete passes that were sandwiched around a run for no gain. Surprisingly, Mike Mularkey kept his offense on the field. The only similar example I can find of such an aggressive move in this situation […]

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Checkdowns: In which week is Atlanta most likely to suffer its first loss?

November 4, 2012 Checkdowns

In this post by Neil, he provided a formula to predict each team’s likelihood of winning a game based on the Vegas point spread. With the help of the SRS, we can come up with a projected point spread for each game, and therefore figure out which team is most likely to give the Falcons […]

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How predictive is 4th quarter play?

October 8, 2012 Statistics

Last week, Neil had a fascinating post on how each team’s win probability has varied by quarter over the last 35 years. The 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers were the poster child for wins added during the 4th quarter and overtime. Pittsburgh went 15-1, which means they exceeded the league average by 7 wins (the average team, […]

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