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Last week, I looked at weight-adjusted 40-yard dash times from the NFL Combine. Today, I want to analyze the bench press.  Last year, Clemson/Atlanta Falcon Vic Beasley was your bench press champion, using a formula involving expected bench press reps based on a player’s height and weight.  This year, that honor belongs to Nebraska fullback Andy Janovich.  The fullback position may be of declining importance in the modern NFL, but this can only help Janovich’s stock.

The best-fit formula to project bench press reps for the 2016 Combine was:

37.97  -0.65 * Height (Inches) + 0.119 * Weight (Pounds)

By this formula, the 73-inch, 238-pound Janovich “should” have benched 225 pounds 18.8 times; instead, he put up 30 reps.  Arizona State guard Christian Westerman led the way with 34 reps, but at 6’3, 317, he only produced 9.3 more reps than expected.

Thanks to NFLCombineResults for the raw data.

RkNameCollegePOSHeight (in)Weight (lbs)Expected BPBench PressDiff
1Andy JanovichNebraskaRB7323818.83011.2
2Dan VitaleNorthwesternRB7223919.63010.4
3B.J. GoodsonClemsonILB7224220.03010.0
4Christian WestermanArizona StateG7529824.7349.3
5David MorganTexas-San AntonioTE7626219.7299.3
6Ronald BlairAppalachian StateDE7428423.7328.3
7Matt JudonGrand Valley StateDE7527521.9308.1
8Connor McGovernMissouriG7630625.0338.0
9Raphael KirbyMiami (FL)ILB7223619.3277.7
10Jason SpriggsIndianaOT7730123.7317.3
11Matt IoannidisTempleDT7529924.8327.2
12Keith MarshallGeorgiaRB7121917.9257.1
13Daniel LascoCaliforniaRB7220916.0237.0
14Dean LowryNorthwesternDE7729623.1306.9
15Sean DavisMarylandFS7320114.4216.6
16Alex RedmondUCLAG7629423.5306.5
17Stephane NembotColoradoOT7832225.6326.4
18Tre MaddenSouthern CaliforniaRB7222317.7246.3
19Yannick NgakoueMarylandDE7425219.9266.1
20DeAndre WashingtonTexas TechRB6820418.0246.0
21Anthony ZettelPenn StateDE7527722.2285.8
22Miles KillebrewSouthern UtahSS7321716.3225.7
23Noah SpenceEastern KentuckyDE7425119.7255.3
24Soma VainukuSouthern CaliforniaRB7124621.1264.9
25Spencer DrangoBaylorG7731525.4304.6
26Shilique CalhounMichigan StateDE7625118.4234.6
27Zack SanchezOklahomaCB7018514.5194.5
28Sterling ShepardOklahomaWR7019415.6204.4
29Anthony BrownPurdueCB7119214.7194.3
30Beau SandlandMontana StateTE7625318.7234.3
31Josh FergusonIllinoisRB6919816.7214.3
32Aaron BurbridgeMichigan StateWR7220615.7204.3
33Joshua GarnettStanfordG7631225.7304.3
34Eric StrikerOklahomaOLB7122718.8234.2
35Joey BosaOhio StateDE7726919.9244.1
36Mehdi AbdesmadBoston CollegeDT7828421.1253.9
37Nick MartinNotre DameC7629924.1283.9
38Bronson KaufusiBrigham YoungDE7828521.2253.8
39Robert NkemdicheMississippiDT7529424.2283.8
40Jonathan JonesAuburnCB6918615.3193.7
41Ryan SmithNorth Carolina CentralCB7118914.3183.7
42Luther MaddyVirginia TechDT7228725.3293.7
43Austin BlytheIowaC7429825.3293.7
44Brandon WildsSouth CarolinaRB7222017.3213.7
45Jimmy PruittSan Jose StateCB7119815.4193.6
46Chris MayesGeorgiaDT7533829.4333.6
47Devontae BookerUtahRB7021918.5223.5
48Blake MartinezStanfordILB7323718.7223.3
49Joe DahlWashington StateG7630424.7283.3
50Joe ThuneyNorth Carolina StateG7630424.7283.3
51Joel HeathMichigan StateDT7729322.8263.2
52Ufomba KamaluMiami (FL)DT7729523.0263.0
53Michael ThomasOhio StateWR7421215.1182.9
54Romeo OkwaraNotre DameDE7626520.1232.9
55Dominique RobertsonWest GeorgiaOT7632427.1302.9
56Andrew BillingsBaylorDT7231128.2312.8
57Derrick HenryAlabamaRB7424719.3222.7
58Brandon WilliamsTexas AMFS7119715.3182.7
59Stephen WeatherlyVanderbiltOLB7626720.3232.7
60Alex LewisNebraskaOT7831224.4272.6
61Juston BurrisNorth Carolina StateCB7221216.4192.6
62Braxton MillerOhio StateWR7320114.4172.6
63Tevin CarterUtahSS7321816.5192.5
64Devante BondOklahomaOLB7323518.5212.5
65Tyler MatakevichTempleILB7223819.5222.5
66Maurice CanadyVirginiaCB7319313.5162.5
67Joe SchobertWisconsinOLB7324419.6222.4
68KeiVarae RussellNotre DameCB7119214.7172.3
69James CowserSouthern UtahDE7524818.7212.3
70Shawn OakmanBaylorDE7928720.8232.2
71Kamalei CorreaBoise StateDE7424318.8212.2
72Deon BushMiami (FL)FS7219914.9172.1
73Rashawn ScottMiami (FL)WR7219914.9172.1
74Jalen MillsLSUFS7219113.9162.1
75Justin SimmonsBoston CollegeFS7420213.9162.1
76Willie HenryMichiganDT7430325.9282.1
77Gionni PaulUtahILB7023120.0222.0
78Sheldon RankinsLouisvilleDT7329926.1281.9
79Ricardo LouisAuburnWR7321516.1181.9
80Paul PerkinsUCLARB7020817.2191.8
81Kenny ClarkUCLADT7431427.2291.8
82Scooby WrightArizonaILB7123920.3221.7
83Jayron KearseClemsonSS7621614.3161.7
84Javon HargraveSouth Carolina StateDT7330927.3291.7
85D.J. WhiteGeorgia TechCB7019315.4171.6
86Landon TurnerNorth CarolinaG7533028.5301.5
87Matt SkuraDukeC7530525.5271.5
88Corey ColemanBaylorWR7019415.6171.4
89D.J. ReaderClemsonDT7432728.8301.2
90Chris JonesMississippi StateDT7731024.8261.2
91Terrance SmithFlorida StateOLB7423517.8191.2
92Ben BrauneckerHarvardTE7525019.0201.0
93Tyler ErvinSan Jose StateRB6919216.0171.0
94Cassanova McKinzyAuburnILB7324820.0211.0
95Montese OvertonEast CarolinaOLB7322317.1180.9
96Kendall FullerVirginia TechCB7118714.1150.9
97Charles TapperOklahomaDE7427122.1230.9
98Carl NassibPenn StateDE7827720.2210.8
99Keanu NealFloridaFS7221116.3170.7
100Jimmy BeanOklahoma StateDE7726419.3200.7
101Marquez NorthTennesseeWR7422316.4170.6
102Joshua PerryOhio StateOLB7525419.4200.6
103Bryce WilliamsEast CarolinaTE7725718.5190.5
104Elijah ShumateNotre DameSS7121617.5180.5
105Jack ConklinMichigan StateOT7730824.6250.4
106Ryan KellyAlabamaC7631125.6260.4
107Peyton BarberAuburnRB7022819.6200.4
108Temarrick HemingwaySouth Carolina StateTE7624417.6180.4
109Kolby ListenbeeTexas ChristianWR7219714.6150.4
110Jake BrendelUCLAC7630324.6250.4
111Kavon FrazierCentral MichiganFS7121717.6180.4
112Tyler JohnstoneOregonOT7730123.7240.3
113Jason FanaikaUtahDE7327122.8230.2
114Nick KwiatkoskiWest VirginiaILB7424318.8190.2
115Tra CarsonTexas AMRB7122718.8190.2
116Quinton JeffersonMarylandDT7529123.8240.2
117Josh DoctsonTexas ChristianWR7420213.9140.1
118Ryan MalleckVirginia TechTE7624718.0180.0
119Tyvis PowellOhio StateFS7421115.0150.0
120Kevin PetersonOklahoma StateCB7018114.0140.0
121Taveze CalhounMississippi StateCB7219214.0140.0
122Byron MarshallOregonWR6920117.0170.0
123Kenneth DixonLouisiana TechRB7021518.118-0.1
124Darrell GreeneSan Diego StateG7432128.128-0.1
125Jonathan BullardFloridaDE7528523.123-0.1
126Vonn BellOhio StateSS7019916.216-0.2
127Jared NorrisUtahILB7324119.219-0.2
128Cody CoreMississippiWR7420514.314-0.3
129Jalin MarshallOhio StateWR7020016.316-0.3
130James BradberrySamfordCB7221116.316-0.3
131Alex CollinsArkansasRB7021718.318-0.3
132Malcolm MitchellGeorgiaWR7119815.415-0.4
133Beniquez BrownMississippi StateOLB7222918.418-0.4
134A.J. StampsKentuckyFS7019315.415-0.4
135Austin HooperStanfordTE7525419.419-0.4
136Kyle MurphyStanfordOT7830523.623-0.6
137Jake McGeeFloridaTE7725017.717-0.7
138Myles JackUCLAOLB7324519.719-0.7
139DeVondre CampbellMinnesotaOLB7523216.816-0.8
140Steve LongaRutgersOLB7224119.819-0.8
141Rashard HigginsColorado StateWR7319613.813-0.8
142Austin JohnsonPenn StateDT7631425.925-0.9
143Pharoh CooperSouth CarolinaWR7120316.015-1.0
144Emmanuel OgbahOklahoma StateDE7627321.120-1.1
145Eric MurrayMinnesotaCB7019916.215-1.2
146Jerald HawkinsLSUOT7730524.223-1.2
147Stephen AndersonCaliforniaTE7423017.216-1.2
148Hassan RidgewayTexasDT7530325.324-1.3
149Glenn GronkowskiKansas StateRB7423918.317-1.3
150Kentrell BrothersMissouriILB7224520.319-1.3
151Ron ThompsonSyracuseDE7525319.318-1.3
152Max TuerkSouthern CaliforniaC7729823.422-1.4
153Jalen RamseyFlorida StateFS7320915.414-1.4
154Keyarris GarrettTulsaWR7522015.414-1.4
155Marshaun CoprichIllinois StateRB6820718.417-1.4
156D.J. FosterArizona StateWR7019315.414-1.4
157Graham GlasgowMichiganG7730724.423-1.4
158Daryl WorleyWest VirginiaCB7220415.414-1.4
159Nick VannettOhio StateTE7725718.517-1.5
160Vernon ButlerLouisiana TechDT7532327.626-1.6
161Devaunte SiglerJacksonville StateDT7529824.723-1.7
162Branden JacksonTexas TechDE7527321.720-1.7
163Vadal AlexanderLSUG7732626.725-1.7
164Alonzo RussellToledoWR7520613.712-1.7
165T.J. GreenClemsonFS7420914.713-1.7
166Vernon HargreavesFloridaCB7020416.715-1.7
167Dominique AlexanderOklahomaILB7223218.817-1.8
168Darron LeeOhio StateOLB7223218.817-1.8
169Evan BoehmMissouriC7430225.824-1.8
170Giorgio NewberryFlorida StateDE7728521.820-1.8
171Eli AppleOhio StateCB7219914.913-1.9
172Mekale McKayCincinnatiWR7520713.912-1.9
173Trevor DavisCaliforniaWR7318812.911-1.9
174Kevon SeymourSouthern CaliforniaCB7118614.012-2.0
175Tajae SharpeMassachusettsWR7419413.011-2.0
176Sua CravensSouthern CaliforniaOLB7222618.116-2.1
177Kyler FackrellUtah StateOLB7724517.115-2.1
178DeAndre Houston-CarsonWilliam & MaryFS7220115.113-2.1
179Kelvin TaylorFloridaRB7020717.115-2.1
180Cole TonerHarvardOT7730624.322-2.3
181Lamarcus BrutusFlorida StateFS7120616.314-2.3
182Halapoulivaati VaitaiTexas ChristianOT7832025.323-2.3
183Joseph CheekTexas AMG7829522.420-2.4
184Shon ColemanAuburnOT7730724.422-2.4
185Germain IfediTexas AMOT7732426.524-2.5
186Sterling BaileyGeorgiaDE7628522.520-2.5
187Connor WujciakBoston CollegeDT7429124.522-2.5
188Jack AllenMichigan StateC7329425.523-2.5
189Maliek CollinsNebraskaDT7331127.525-2.5
190Jonathan WilliamsArkansasRB7022018.616-2.6
191Charone PeakeClemsonWR7420914.712-2.7
192Leonte CarrooRutgersWR7121116.914-2.9
193Tyler BoydPittsburghWR7319714.011-3.0
194Nelson SpruceColoradoWR7320615.012-3.0
195Duke WilliamsAuburnWR7422917.114-3.1
196Jordan HowardIndianaRB7123019.216-3.2
197Wendell SmallwoodWest VirginiaRB7020817.214-3.2
198Jihad WardIllinoisDE7729723.320-3.3
199Darian ThompsonBoise StateFS7320815.312-3.3
200Will FullerNotre DameWR7218613.310-3.3
201Hunter SharpUtah StateWR7119815.412-3.4
202Taylor DeckerOhio StateOT7931023.520-3.5
203Bralon AddisonOregonWR6919716.613-3.6
204Rees OdhiamboBoise StateG7531426.623-3.6
205William JacksonHoustonCB7218913.710-3.7
206AShawn RobinsonAlabamaDT7530725.722-3.7
207Dadi NicolasVirginia TechDE7423517.814-3.8
208Sebastian TretolaArkansasG7631425.922-3.9
209Adolphus WashingtonOhio StateDT7530125.021-4.0
210Mackensie AlexanderClemsonCB7019015.111-4.1
211Xavien HowardBaylorCB7220115.111-4.1
212Laquon TreadwellMississippiWR7422116.212-4.2
213LeShaun SimsSouthern UtahCB7220315.311-4.3
214D.J. PettwayAlabamaDE7426521.417-4.4
215Brandon ShellSouth CarolinaOT7732426.522-4.5
216Jordan JenkinsGeorgiaOLB7425920.716-4.7
217Steven DanielsBoston CollegeILB7124320.716-4.7
218Sheldon DayNotre DameDT7229326.021-5.0
219Chris MooreCincinnatiWR7320615.010-5.0
220Devon CajusteStanfordWR7523417.112-5.1
221Dominick JacksonAlabamaOT7731325.220-5.2
222KJ DillonWest VirginiaSS7221016.211-5.2
223Hunter HenryArkansasTE7625018.313-5.3
224Thomas DuarteUCLATE7423117.412-5.4
225Fahn CooperMississippiOT7630324.619-5.6
226Shadrach ThorntonNorth Carolina StateRB7121717.612-5.6
227Cayleb JonesArizonaWR7420914.79-5.7
228Johnny HoltonCincinnatiWR7219013.88-5.8
229Tyler MarzWisconsinOT7831624.919-5.9
230Tavon YoungTempleCB6918314.99-5.9
231Briean Boddy-CalhounMinnesotaCB6919316.110-6.1
232Kenyan DrakeAlabamaRB7221016.210-6.2
233Cyrus JonesAlabamaCB6919716.610-6.6
234Willie BeaversWestern MichiganOT7632126.820-6.8
235Roger LewisBowling GreenWR7220115.18-7.1
236Harlan MillerSoutheastern LouisianaCB7118213.56-7.5
237LeRaven ClarkTexas TechOT7731625.518-7.5
238Josh ForrestKentuckyILB7524918.811-7.8
239Cody WhitehairKansas StateG7530125.016-9.0
240Jordan LomaxIowaFS6920217.28-9.2
241Pearce SlaterSan Diego StateOT7832926.417-9.4
242Denver KirklandArkansasG7633528.419-9.4
243Vincent ValentineNebraskaDT7532928.417-11.4
244Nila KasitatiOklahomaG7531726.912-14.9

On the other side of the spectrum, we have Oklahoma guard Nila Kasitati. Despite measuring in at 6’3, 317 pounds, he put up just 12 reps on the bench press, 14.9 fewer than expected.

  • Carl Yedor

    Chase,

    Long-time reader and first time commenter here, I would be interested to see whether the results would change at all if you included arm length in the regression model. There wasn’t a column for arm length on the site where you retrieved the combine results, but many strength-training sites agree that having shorter arms is better for benching because the weight has less distance to travel. This causes a bit of a disadvantage for the prospects with longer arms, particularly with offensive linemen and other positions where arm length is prized. The data might not be out there, but I think it would be really interesting to add the arm length variable if possible.

    Thanks,

    Carl

    • Hey Carl,

      Yes, I agree with you. I suspect that height is a pretty good proxy for arm length in most cases, but if forced to choose, I would definitely expect arm length to be the more predictive measurement. The same (perhaps to a lesser degree) would go for the barrel-chested folks out there.