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Famous Jameis

Famous Jameis.

Last week, Florida State topped the SRS ratings. And that was before the Seminoles posted the single best performance of the season, winning at Clemson 51-14 on Saturday Night. They scored an 85.5 in the SRS against the Tigers, so FSU now has the top two games of the season (the team’s 63-0 shutout against Maryland had been the previous SRS leader). Freshman phenom Jameis Winston threw for 444 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 34 passes, and is vaulting to the front of Heisman leaderboards. How impressive was the win? Even if you ignore margin of victory, simply winning at Clemson stands as the most impressive road win of the season. The Tigers have an SRS of 53.5, and no team with a higher SRS score has lost at home this season. And it would be a surprise if the Seminoles didn’t finish the season undefeated.

Four of FSU’s final six regular season games come against teams outside of the top 75 in the SRS. FSU is a 29-point favorite this weekend against NC State, and should be similar favorites against Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Idaho (well, that game should be off the board). The only real challenges the rest of the way come from in-state rivals Miami and Florida, but for now, FSU seems like the best team not just in Florida, but in the country.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed in college football, a reality several teams were painfully reminded of this weekend. Louisville and Heisman/2014 No. 1 overall draft pick favorite Teddy Bridgewater lost, at home, to a sneaky good Central Florida team. If UCF can beat Houston in two weeks, the American Athletic Conference is likely theirs, along with an automatic BCS berth. Through eight weeks, the AAC has just three teams in the top half of the 125 FBS teams, so Central Florida’s path to a BCS Bowl won’t feature too many road blocks.

The one loss for the Knights was out of conference to South Carolina, a team who fell on SEC Upset Weekend. Despite a good game (and one monster hit) out of Jadeveon Clowney, the Gamecocks lost on a last-second field goal at Tennessee, 23-21.

That was one of five intraconference upsets in the SEC this weekend. Georgia lost on the road against Vanderbilt 31-27, despite the Bulldogs entering the game as 6.5-point favorites. Missouri had a higher SRS rating than Florida, but was a three-point underdog in Columbia against the Gators. The Tigers outgained Florida 500-151, and Henry Josey led the way with 18 carries for 136 yards and a score. LSU was a 9.5-point favorite in Oxford, but Zach Mettenberger threw three interceptions and Ole Miss jumped out to a 17-0 lead. The Tigers came back to tie the game, but the Rebels hit a 41-yard field goal as time expired to steal the win.

Johnny Manziel went down with an injury against Auburn, but you wouldn’t know it from his stat line: 28/38 for 454 yards, 4 TDs, 18 carries for 48 yards, 1 TD. Manziel also threw two interceptions, and missed one series with an injury, which might have made the difference in a shootout. Aggie wideout Mike Evans, who is a Vincent Jackson clone, caught 11 passes for 287 yards and four touchdowns. But Auburn, which entered College Station as 12.5-point underdogs, ultimately scored last, pulling out a 45-41 win. Tigers quarterback Nick Marshall had a great game, too, throwing for 236 passing yards and two touchdowns on 23 pass attempts, while adding 100 yards and two scores on the ground.

Only one game went according to script in the SEC, which is a pretty good way of describing just about every Alabama game ever. The Crimson Tide defeated Arkansas 52-0, in typical ruthless fashion. A.J. McCarron was 15/21 for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns, Kenyan Drake had 104 yards and two scores on 8 carries, and T.J. Yeldon had 88 yards and a score on 12 carries. Backup Derrick Henry even ran for an 80-yard touchdown in the final minutes, just because.

Below are the SRS ratings through eight weeks. As a reminder, you can read about the methodology here. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game.

RkTeamConfConf RkGMOVSOSSRSREC
1Florida StACC1631.839.571.36-0
2BaylorB121634.332.867.16-0
3OregonP121731.733.665.47-0
4AlabamaSEC1725.83762.87-0
5MissouriSEC2720.439.6607-0
6Arizona StP122713.443.556.95-2
7LSUSEC3814.441.555.96-2
8StanfordP123711.644.155.76-1
9WisconsinB101719.634.253.75-2
10ClemsonACC2712.341.253.56-1
11UCLAP124618.23553.15-1
12Ohio StateB102720.232.752.97-0
13LouisvilleAAC1721.930.452.36-1
14Miami FLACC3620.631.4526-0
15WashingtonP12575.945.951.74-3
16Texas A&MSEC471140.651.65-2
17Brigham YoungIND1710.341.351.65-2
18AuburnSEC5711.739.150.86-1
19GeorgiaSEC671.648.850.44-3
20Georgia TechACC4711.438.850.14-3
21South CarolinaSEC77940.949.95-2
22Oklahoma StB122615.334.549.75-1
23Texas TechB123719.73049.77-0
24UtahP12675.943.849.74-3
25FloridaSEC874.64549.64-3
26ArizonaP12761237494-2
27Central FloridaAAC2612.635.648.15-1
28Oregon StP128714.933.248.16-1
29MississippiSEC971.44647.44-3
30Virginia TechACC576.640.747.36-1
31MichiganB103713.632.746.36-1
32Southern CalP12972.843.2464-3
33OklahomaB124711.434.245.66-1
34Kansas StB12561.643.645.22-4
35Utah StMWC1811.233.644.84-4
36TCUB12673.341.444.63-4
37Boise StMWC2713.231.444.65-2
38NebraskaB104614.729.844.55-1
39Notre DameIND273.640.644.15-2
40East CarolinaCUSA1712.130.742.85-2
41HoustonAAC3613.828.942.75-1
42IndianaB10572.939.842.73-4
43TennesseeSEC1072.240.442.64-3
44Boston CollegeACC66-2.144.642.53-3
45MarshallCUSA2614.827.642.34-2
46Michigan StB106711.630.742.36-1
47TexasB12764.23842.24-2
48VanderbiltSEC1175.836.241.94-3
49IowaB10776.93541.94-3
50Northern IllinoisMAC1714.927.141.97-0
51DukeACC779.332.241.45-2
52PittsburghACC861.340.141.34-2
53Penn StateB10866.734.441.14-2
54Washington StP121080.840.140.94-4
55Fresno StMWC3613.227.540.76-0
56Mississippi StSEC1262.637.940.53-3
57Bowling GreenMAC2711.828.640.45-2
58Ball StMAC381525.240.27-1
59ToledoMAC473.335.638.94-3
60MarylandACC975.433.538.85-2
61IllinoisB10961.337.638.83-3
62Louisiana-LafayetteSUN169.328.537.84-2
63North CarolinaACC106-7.34537.71-5
64North TexasCUSA376.930.837.74-3
65NorthwesternB101072.734.737.44-3
66West VirginiaB1287-542.137.13-4
67BuffaloMAC576.929.936.85-2
68RutgersAAC467.928364-2
69Ohio U.MAC678.427.435.85-2
70NavyIND363.831.635.43-3
71MinnesotaB101176.129.135.25-2
72CincinnatiAAC5712.822.134.95-2
73RiceCUSA474.529.433.95-2
74Iowa StB1296-9.44333.61-5
75KentuckySEC136-9.94333.11-5
76ColoradoP12116-6.239.233.13-3
77Wake ForestACC1172.630.4334-3
78MemphisAAC66-3.536.432.91-5
79ArkansasSEC148-8.340.932.53-5
80SyracuseACC127-1.734.332.53-4
81San José StMWC46-2.935.432.53-3
82Colorado StMWC571.530.832.33-4
83Western KentuckySUN272.829.532.34-3
84VirginiaACC137-7.338.931.62-5
85South AlabamaSUN362.329.131.43-3
86Florida AtlanticCUSA57-3.63531.32-5
87TulaneCUSA67328.131.15-2
88North Carolina StACC1461.129.530.63-3
89NevadaMWC67-6.436.3303-4
90Arkansas StSUN46-0.229.729.53-3
91SMUAAC76-11.840.8292-4
92WyomingMWC775.922.928.94-3
93San Diego StMWC86-4.833.128.23-3
94Middle Tennessee StCUSA77-6.734.527.83-4
95KansasB12106-8.43526.62-4
96TempleAAC87-8.934.9261-6
97Kent StMAC78-9.935.825.92-6
98Texas-San AntonioCUSA87-10.335.925.62-5
99Texas St-San MarcosSUN570.425.125.54-3
100TroySUN67025.325.34-3
101CaliforniaP12127-19.944.925.11-6
102UNLVMWC97-4.529.424.94-3
103AkronMAC88-10.735.524.82-6
104Hawai`iMWC106-12.73724.40-6
105ArmyIND48-4.628.724.13-5
106TulsaCUSA96-1033.123.12-4
107South FloridaAAC96-12.735.7232-4
108Alabama-BirminghamCUSA106-7.330.222.92-4
109Louisiana-MonroeSUN77-9.631.321.83-4
110PurdueB10127-18.439.220.81-6
111ConnecticutAAC106-15.536.220.70-6
112New MexicoMWC117-5.726.220.52-5
113Central MichiganMAC98-1232.320.33-5
114Air ForceMWC127-11.631.219.51-6
115MassachusettsMAC107-18.237.218.91-6
116Louisiana TechCUSA117-7.925.317.42-5
117Georgia StSUN87-17.932.714.70-7
118UTEPCUSA126-7.720.6131-5
119IdahoIND57-22.435.112.71-6
120Western MichiganMAC118-21.634.312.70-8
121Florida Int'lCUSA136-21.73412.31-5
122Miami OHMAC127-19.230.511.20-7
123Southern MissCUSA146-22.533.711.20-6
124Eastern MichiganMAC137-20.130.810.81-6
125New Mexico StIND67-27.432.34.90-7

FSU, Baylor, Oregon, Alabama, and Missouri are all undefeated and the only teams with an average SRS rating of 60 points. They appear to be the upper crust of college football, but the only possible matchup there is between Alabaama and Missouri in the SEC Championship Game. The SRS is less impressived with the other undefeated teams. Ohio State just beat a mediocre Iowa team by only 10 points at home, so the Buckeyes continue to unimpress against mediocre competition. Miami needed a last second touchdown to secure a win at North Carolina (#10 in the ACC) this week, while Texas Tech continues to win but has played the easiest schedule of any team in the Big 12. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are also undefeated, but have both played weak schedules and have lower margins of victory. As a result, they both just barely rank in the top sixty.

Let’s take a look at the week 8 game results:

DateTm_ConfPFOppPAH/RW/LDiffMOVOpp_ConfSOSSRS
10-19-2013Florida St_ACC51Clemson14RoadWin3732ACC53.585.5
10-19-2013Arizona St_P1253Washington24HomeWin2925P1251.776.7
10-19-2013Baylor_B1271Iowa St7HomeWin6442.5B1233.676.1
10-19-2013Georgia Tech_ACC56Syracuse0HomeWin5638.5ACC32.571
10-19-2013Alabama_SEC52Arkansas0HomeWin5236.5SEC32.569
10-19-2013Missouri_SEC36Florida17HomeWin1916SEC49.665.6
10-19-2013Wisconsin_B1056Illinois32RoadWin2425.5B1038.864.3
10-19-2013Stanford_P1224UCLA10HomeWin1411P1253.164.1
10-19-2013Oregon_P1262Washington St38HomeWin2421P1240.961.9
10-19-2013Wake Forest_ACC34Maryland10HomeWin2421ACC38.859.8
10-18-2013Central Florida_AAC38Louisville35RoadWin37AAC52.359.3
10-19-2013Auburn_SEC45Texas A&M41RoadWin47SEC51.658.6
10-19-2013Arizona_P1235Utah24HomeWin118P1249.757.7
10-19-2013Vanderbilt_SEC31Georgia27HomeWin47SEC50.457.4
10-19-2013Colorado St_MWC52Wyoming22RoadWin3028.5MWC28.957.4
10-19-2013Mississippi_SEC27LSU24HomeWin30SEC55.955.9
10-19-2013Michigan_B1063Indiana47HomeWin1613B1042.755.7
10-19-2013Oklahoma St_B1224TCU10HomeWin1411B1244.655.6
10-19-2013Oregon St_P1249California17RoadWin3229.5P1225.154.6
10-19-2013Notre Dame_IND14Southern Cal10HomeWin47P124653
10-15-2013Louisiana-Lafayette_SUN37Western Kentucky20RoadWin1720SUN32.352.3
10-19-2013Utah St_MWC45New Mexico10RoadWin3531MWC20.551.5
10-19-2013Texas Tech_B1237West Virginia27RoadWin1013B1237.150.1
10-19-2013Tennessee_SEC23South Carolina21HomeWin20SEC49.949.9
10-19-2013Brigham Young_IND47Houston46RoadWin17AAC42.749.7
10-19-2013Ohio State_B1034Iowa24HomeWin107B1041.948.9
10-19-2013Duke_ACC35Virginia22RoadWin1316ACC31.647.6
10-19-2013LSU_SEC24Mississippi27RoadLoss-30SEC47.447.4
10-19-2013Iowa_B1024Ohio State34RoadLoss-10-7B1052.945.9
10-19-2013Fresno St_MWC38UNLV14HomeWin2421MWC24.945.9
10-17-2013North Carolina_ACC23Miami FL27HomeLoss-4-7ACC5245
10-17-2013Miami FL_ACC27North Carolina23RoadWin47ACC37.744.7
10-19-2013UCLA_P1210Stanford24RoadLoss-14-11P1255.744.7
10-19-2013Oklahoma_B1234Kansas19RoadWin1518B1226.644.6
10-19-2013Houston_AAC46Brigham Young47HomeLoss-1-7IND51.644.6
10-19-2013Minnesota_B1020Northwestern17RoadWin37B1037.444.4
10-19-2013Washington St_P1238Oregon62RoadLoss-24-21P1265.444.4
10-19-2013Northern Illinois_MAC38Central Michigan17RoadWin2124MAC20.344.3
10-19-2013Boise St_MWC34Nevada17HomeWin1714MWC3044
10-19-2013Florida_SEC17Missouri36RoadLoss-19-16SEC6044
10-19-2013Buffalo_MAC32Massachusetts3HomeWin2925MAC18.943.9
10-19-2013Texas A&M_SEC41Auburn45HomeLoss-4-7SEC50.843.8
10-19-2013Cincinnati_AAC41Connecticut16HomeWin2522AAC20.742.7
10-19-2013South Carolina_SEC21Tennessee23RoadLoss-20SEC42.642.6
10-19-2013East Carolina_CUSA55Southern Miss14HomeWin4131CUSA11.242.2
10-18-2013Louisville_AAC35Central Florida38HomeLoss-3-7AAC48.141.1
10-19-2013Utah_P1224Arizona35RoadLoss-11-8P124941
10-19-2013SMU_AAC34Memphis29RoadWin58AAC32.940.9
10-19-2013Temple_AAC33Army14HomeWin1916IND24.140.1
10-19-2013South Alabama_SUN38Kent St21HomeWin1714MAC25.939.9
10-19-2013Clemson_ACC14Florida St51HomeLoss-37-32ACC71.339.3
10-19-2013Navy_IND44Toledo45RoadLoss-10MAC38.938.9
10-19-2013TCU_B1210Oklahoma St24RoadLoss-14-11B1249.738.7
10-19-2013Ohio U._MAC56Eastern Michigan28RoadWin2827.5MAC10.838.3
10-19-2013Southern Cal_P1210Notre Dame14RoadLoss-4-7IND44.137.1
10-19-2013West Virginia_B1227Texas Tech37HomeLoss-10-13B1249.736.7
10-19-2013Ball St_MAC38Western Michigan17RoadWin2124MAC12.736.7
10-19-2013Pittsburgh_ACC35Old Dominion24HomeWin118fcs28.436.4
10-19-2013Colorado_P1243Charleston Southern10HomeWin3327fcs8.735.7
10-19-2013North Texas_CUSA28Louisiana Tech13RoadWin1518CUSA17.435.4
10-19-2013Toledo_MAC45Navy44HomeWin10IND35.435.4
10-19-2013Georgia_SEC27Vanderbilt31RoadLoss-4-7SEC41.934.9
10-19-2013Indiana_B1047Michigan63RoadLoss-16-13B1046.333.3
10-19-2013Washington_P1224Arizona St53RoadLoss-29-25P1256.931.9
10-19-2013Michigan St_B1014Purdue0HomeWin1411B1020.831.8
10-19-2013Rice_CUSA45New Mexico St19RoadWin2626.5IND4.931.4
10-19-2013Purdue_B100Michigan St14RoadLoss-14-11B1042.331.3
10-19-2013Nevada_MWC17Boise St34RoadLoss-17-14MWC44.630.6
10-19-2013Illinois_B1032Wisconsin56HomeLoss-24-25.5B1053.728.2
10-19-2013Northwestern_B1017Minnesota20HomeLoss-3-7B1035.228.2
10-19-2013Kansas_B1219Oklahoma34HomeLoss-15-18B1245.627.6
10-19-2013Arkansas_SEC0Alabama52RoadLoss-52-36.5SEC62.826.3
10-19-2013Virginia_ACC22Duke35HomeLoss-13-16ACC41.425.4
10-19-2013Iowa St_B127Baylor71RoadLoss-64-42.5B1267.124.6
10-19-2013Texas St-San Marcos_SUN24Georgia St17HomeWin77SUN14.721.7
10-19-2013Akron_MAC24Miami OH17RoadWin710MAC11.221.2
10-19-2013Memphis_AAC29SMU34HomeLoss-5-8AAC2921
10-19-2013Louisiana Tech_CUSA13North Texas28HomeLoss-15-18CUSA37.719.7
10-19-2013UNLV_MWC14Fresno St38RoadLoss-24-21MWC40.719.7
10-19-2013California_P1217Oregon St49HomeLoss-32-29.5P1248.118.6
10-19-2013Georgia St_SUN17Texas St-San Marcos24RoadLoss-7-7SUN25.518.5
10-19-2013Central Michigan_MAC17Northern Illinois38HomeLoss-21-24MAC41.917.9
10-15-2013Western Kentucky_SUN20Louisiana-Lafayette37HomeLoss-17-20SUN37.817.8
10-19-2013Kent St_MAC21South Alabama38RoadLoss-17-14SUN31.417.4
10-19-2013Western Michigan_MAC17Ball St38HomeLoss-21-24MAC40.216.2
10-19-2013Miami OH_MAC17Akron24HomeLoss-7-10MAC24.814.8
10-19-2013New Mexico_MWC10Utah St45HomeLoss-35-31MWC44.813.8
10-19-2013Connecticut_AAC16Cincinnati41RoadLoss-25-22AAC34.912.9
10-19-2013Maryland_ACC10Wake Forest34RoadLoss-24-21ACC3312
10-19-2013Massachusetts_MAC3Buffalo32RoadLoss-29-25MAC36.811.8
10-19-2013Southern Miss_CUSA14East Carolina55RoadLoss-41-31CUSA42.811.8
10-19-2013Syracuse_ACC0Georgia Tech56RoadLoss-56-38.5ACC50.111.6
10-19-2013Army_IND14Temple33RoadLoss-19-16AAC2610
10-19-2013Eastern Michigan_MAC28Ohio U.56HomeLoss-28-27.5MAC35.88.3
10-19-2013New Mexico St_IND19Rice45HomeLoss-26-26.5CUSA33.97.4
10-19-2013Wyoming_MWC22Colorado St52HomeLoss-30-28.5MWC32.33.8

The Big Five all played well this week: FSU, Baylor, Alabama, and Missouri put up top-6 performances. Oregon led Washington State 62-24, allowed two late touchdowns, and still finished with the 9th best game of the week. The next two games for the Ducks come against the best two teams on their schedule, UCLA and Stanford (Oregon skips Arizona State this year). As a reminder, you can view the SRS results from every game this season at this link.

{ 9 comments }
  • Anders October 21, 2013, 7:33 am

    I really wants to see FSU vs Bama and Oregon vs Baylor bowl games.

    Reply
  • Richie October 21, 2013, 3:09 pm

    UCLA lost, so the college football season is over for me.

    Reply
  • George October 22, 2013, 4:58 pm

    Slightly quick post from me, I do the College SRS uncapped (so admittedly currently that really benefits Florida St., Baylor and Oregon due to the nature of their offences), but I have simulated the rest of the season out based on current uncapped SRS figures (as I think it will be between them 3 and Alabama, as I think Missouri’s QB issues catch up with them);

    Alabama (and a caveat here – I have a future ticket on them here in the UK after taking a gamble with FSU last year)

    8 wins – 0.04%
    9 wins – 0.94%
    10 wins – 9.51%
    11 wins – 38.87%
    12 wins – 50.64% (the numbers appear to be reflective of the fact that they still have games against Auburn and LSU who are both top 20 in the SRS – I also feel that Alabama’s SRS number is fairly genuinely consistent around the mid-60’s as the competition in the SEC starts to drop away)

    Baylor

    9 wins – 0.01%
    10 wins – 0.59%
    11 wins – 12.27%
    12 wins – 87.13% (high percentage reflective of the margin of their victories uncapped resulting in a +90’s SRS and the general state of the Big 12 which appears only slightly better than the Big 10)

    Oregon

    8 wins – 0.06%
    9 wins – 1.23%
    10 wins – 10.92%
    11 wins – 37.91%
    12 wins – 49.88% (reflective of a couple of tough games against Pac12 competition left, and the fact that they sometimes pull their starters in games so their uncapped MOV is not as high is it could be)

    Florida State – massive upgrade at QB with one of the best D’s in the nation (even with the losses in the draft), against a more competitive ACC which wasn’t the best last year meaning their SOS is a bit higher to match their higher MOV (in comparison to last year and the fact they are now winning games comfortably).

    9 wins – 0.01%
    10 wins – 0.22%
    11 wins – 9.37%
    12 wins – 90.4% (considering they still have games against two Top 30 SRS squads – I think this number is really reflective of the level of their victories so far and the margins).

    Reply

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