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Mariota and the Ducks continue to roll

Mariota and the Ducks continue to roll.

After seven weeks, the idle Seminoles remain atop the SRS Ratings. New readers can read the background about the Simple Rating System here, but the SRS simply takes margin of victory for each team (with some minor tweaks to minimize running up the score and to give credit for close wins) and adjusts that differential for strength of schedule. The top three comprises the same teams as last week, but following a big win in Washington, Oregon leapfrogged Baylor into the number two spot. Quarterback Marcus Mariota now has 17 passing touchdowns, eight rushing touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Among players with at least 150 pass attempts, he leads college football in Adjusted Yards per Attempt, with presumptive number one pick in the 2014 Draft — Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater — three tenths of a yard behind him. (If you lower the threshold to 100 attempts, both Bryce Petty (Baylor) and Jameis Winston (Florida State) would vault Mariota.)

The 4-5-6 spots are occupied by SEC teams, with newcomer Missouri sandwiched next to SEC stalwarts Alabama and LSU. Missouri was identified as a sleeper in last week’s ratings — the Tigers actually ranked ahead of Georgia entering that game — and then pulled off one of the weekend’s big upsets by winning in Athens. But with Mizzou, the other shoe never waits very long to drop: quarterback James Franklin was injured against Georgia, and is out at least six weeks with a separated shoulder. The Tigers have averaged 45.7 points per game this year, so Missouri is very much a team built around its dynamic offense. It’s hard to imagine Missouri beating both Florida and South Carolina the next two weeks, even with both games coming at home. On the other hand, if the Tigers can do that, there’s a good chance they’ll enter the final game of the regular season with an undefeated record. That game comes against Johnny Manziel and former Big XII rival Texas A&M. If they get to that game, we’re going to just have to assume that this 2013 is Jason Lisk’s year and we’re all just living in it. His Chiefs and Tigers are a combined 12-0 right now, and none of that makes any sense.

There were two other “big upsets” this week among ranked teams. Number five Stanford lost in Utah, in a game that wasn’t as surprising as you might think. Last week, Stanford was “only” 11th and Utah was 30th in the SRS; in fact, the Cardinal only drop to #13 in the SRS this week, while the Utes jump up to #21. The other big upset was in the Red River Shootout, in a game that was hard to see coming. Texas lost to #36 (in the SRS) Ole Miss by 21 points at home earlier this year, so who saw them winning in Dallas against Oklahoma on Saturday? Right now, Baylor is the only team in the top 20 in the SRS from the Big 12, although the Bears had their own struggles against #40 KSU in week seven.

The #7 team in the SRS is Clemson, and the Tigers host Florida State next week in a matchup of two teams ranked in the top five (albeit not in the SRS). That looks to be one of the best games of the year, and is where College Gameday will be in week eight. That’s an 8PM kickoff, so plan accordingly. And now, the week seven SRS ratings. As always, this is an ever-evolving picture, but after seven weeks, you can begin to feel pretty confident in these ratings. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game.

Rk
Team
Conf
Conf Rk
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
REC
1Florida StACC1531.837.969.75-0
2OregonP121633.533.867.36-0
3BaylorB121532.732.164.85-0
4AlabamaSEC162435.759.76-0
5MissouriSEC2621.138.359.36-0
6LSUSEC3716.541.357.86-1
7ClemsonACC2619.737.256.96-0
8UCLAP12252431.655.65-0
9WashingtonP12361144.555.54-2
10Ohio StateB101622.43254.46-0
11GeorgiaSEC46351544-2
12LouisvilleAAC1626.726.953.66-0
13StanfordP124611.741.953.65-1
14Miami FLACC3523.329.552.85-0
15Texas A&MSEC561437.551.55-1
16WisconsinB102618.632.751.34-2
17FloridaSEC66843.351.34-2
18Arizona StP125611.539.751.24-2
19Brigham YoungIND1610.840.351.14-2
20South CarolinaSEC7610.540.250.75-1
21UtahP12668.242.150.34-2
22Texas TechB122620.828.249.16-0
23AuburnSEC8612.536.248.75-1
24Oklahoma StB123516.131.647.74-1
25ArizonaP127512.834.647.43-2
26Central FloridaAAC2513.732.946.64-1
27NebraskaB103614.731.846.55-1
28Oregon StP128612.433.545.95-1
29Southern CalP12964.441.245.74-2
30Georgia TechACC466.838.745.53-3
31Virginia TechACC576.638.745.36-1
32Boise StMWC1613.132.245.34-2
33TCUB12465.739.4453-3
34IndianaB10465.539.444.93-3
35OklahomaB125610.334.644.85-1
36MississippiSEC961.742.544.23-3
37MichiganB105613.830.2445-1
38Michigan StB106611.832.243.95-1
39MarylandACC669.834.243.95-1
40Kansas StB12661.642.343.92-4
41Utah StMWC278.43543.33-4
42Boston CollegeACC76-2.144.742.63-3
43TennesseeSEC1062.640.142.63-3
44PittsburghACC85-0.142.342.23-2
45IllinoisB10756.635.542.13-2
46Penn StateB10866.735.241.94-2
47East CarolinaCUSA168.932.841.84-2
48TexasB12764.237.441.54-2
49MarshallCUSA2614.826.741.54-2
50Northern IllinoisMAC1613.327.841.16-0
51HoustonAAC351823.141.15-0
52Ball StMAC2713.727.240.96-1
53IowaB10969.331.540.74-2
54DukeACC968.232.340.44-2
55Bowling GreenMAC3711.828.740.45-2
56Notre DameIND26337.440.44-2
57Mississippi StSEC1162.637.540.13-3
58NorthwesternB101064.335.740.14-2
59Washington StP121073.93639.94-3
60ToledoMAC463.835.739.53-3
61Fresno StMWC3511.627.939.55-0
62VanderbiltSEC1265.633.238.83-3
63North TexasCUSA365.133.638.73-3
64SyracuseACC1064.432.937.33-3
65West VirginiaB1286-3.74137.33-3
66BuffaloMAC563.932.436.34-2
67Iowa StB1295-2.838.735.91-4
68RutgersAAC467.92835.94-2
69Ohio U.MAC665.330.235.54-2
70NavyIND354.630.735.33-2
71Louisiana-LafayetteSUN157.22835.23-2
72North CarolinaACC115-7.342.134.81-4
73MemphisAAC55-2.636.934.31-4
74WyomingMWC4611.722.634.34-2
75VirginiaACC126-5.839.934.12-4
76Western KentuckySUN266.627.4344-2
77ArkansasSEC137-4.337.933.63-4
78KentuckySEC146-9.943.333.41-5
79RiceCUSA460.832.533.44-2
80CincinnatiAAC6611.321.7334-2
81MinnesotaB101165.925.931.84-2
82TulaneCUSA57328.431.45-2
83North Carolina StACC1361.130.231.33-3
84Florida AtlanticCUSA67-3.634.731.12-5
85ColoradoP12115-12.843.130.32-3
86South AlabamaSUN35030.130.12-3
87San José StMWC56-2.932.529.63-3
88NevadaMWC66-5.134.529.43-3
89Arkansas StSUN46-0.229.529.33-3
90Wake ForestACC146-0.529.428.93-3
91San Diego StMWC76-4.832.928.13-3
92CaliforniaP12126-18.345.727.51-5
93Kent StMAC77-9.336.727.42-5
94Middle Tennessee StCUSA77-6.733.927.23-4
95SMUAAC75-15.842.226.41-4
96Colorado StMWC86-329.326.32-4
97Texas St-San MarcosSUN56-0.726.826.13-3
98ArmyIND47-327.924.93-4
99KansasB12105-6.531.424.92-3
100Texas-San AntonioCUSA87-10.33524.72-5
101TroySUN67024.624.64-3
102UNLVMWC96-1.826.124.44-2
103AkronMAC87-13.637.824.11-6
104South FloridaAAC86-12.736.423.82-4
105ConnecticutAAC95-14.237.523.30-5
106Hawai`iMWC106-12.735.723.10-6
107Alabama-BirminghamCUSA96-7.329.822.52-4
108TempleAAC106-1335.122.10-6
109TulsaCUSA106-1032.122.12-4
110New MexicoMWC116-1.523.622.12-4
111Louisiana-MonroeSUN77-9.630.721.13-4
112Central MichiganMAC97-10.330.219.93-4
113Air ForceMWC127-11.631.519.91-6
114MassachusettsMAC106-17.13618.91-5
115PurdueB10126-19.73818.31-5
116Louisiana TechCUSA116-6.222.716.62-4
117Georgia StSUN86-19.833.213.40-6
118Florida Int'lCUSA126-21.73513.31-5
119Western MichiganMAC117-21.234.413.10-7
120IdahoIND57-22.43512.61-6
121Southern MissCUSA135-20.83312.20-5
122UTEPCUSA146-7.719.311.71-5
123Eastern MichiganMAC126-18.83011.11-5
124Miami OHMAC136-20.831.510.70-6
125New Mexico StIND66-27.631.84.20-6

What about the best and worst games of the week? As a reminder, you can view the results of every FBS team in the SRS for each game this season at this link, always maintained at the top of every page.

The top game of the week belongs to the Ducks, beating #9 (in the SRS) Washington on the road by 21 points. After that, the SEC takes the next three spots: Missouri’s win over Georgia, Jadeveon Clowney and South Carolina’s demolition of Arkansas, and Alabama’s 48-7 victory in Lexington.

Date
Tm_Conf
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
Opp_Conf
SOS
SRS
10-12-2013Oregon_P1245Washington24RoadWin2124P1255.579.5
10-12-2013Missouri_SEC41Georgia26RoadWin1518SEC5472
10-12-2013South Carolina_SEC52Arkansas7RoadWin4536SEC33.669.6
10-12-2013Alabama_SEC48Kentucky7RoadWin4134SEC33.467.4
10-12-2013Oregon St_P1252Washington St24RoadWin2827.5P1239.967.4
10-12-2013Wisconsin_B1035Northwestern6HomeWin2925B1040.165.1
10-12-2013Arizona St_P1254Colorado13HomeWin4131P1230.361.3
10-12-2013Texas_B1236Oklahoma20NeutWin1616B1244.860.8
10-12-2013Utah_P1227Stanford21HomeWin67P1253.660.6
10-12-2013Brigham Young_IND38Georgia Tech20HomeWin1815ACC45.560.5
10-12-2013Duke_ACC35Navy7HomeWin2824.5IND35.359.8
10-12-2013LSU_SEC17Florida6HomeWin118SEC51.359.3
10-12-2013Boise St_MWC34Utah St23RoadWin1114MWC43.357.3
10-12-2013Baylor_B1235Kansas St25RoadWin1013B1243.956.9
10-12-2013Michigan St_B1042Indiana28HomeWin1411B1044.955.9
10-10-2013Southern Cal_P1238Arizona31HomeWin77P1247.454.4
10-12-2013Kansas St_B1225Baylor35HomeLoss-10-13B1264.851.8
10-12-2013UCLA_P1237California10HomeWin2724P1227.551.5
10-12-2013North Texas_CUSA34Middle Tennessee St7HomeWin2724CUSA27.251.2
10-12-2013Texas A&M_SEC41Mississippi38RoadWin37SEC44.251.2
10-12-2013Nebraska_B1044Purdue7RoadWin3732B1018.350.3
10-12-2013Boston College_ACC14Clemson24RoadLoss-10-7ACC56.949.9
10-12-2013Florida_SEC6LSU17RoadLoss-11-8SEC57.849.8
10-12-2013Clemson_ACC24Boston College14HomeWin107ACC42.649.6
10-12-2013Virginia Tech_ACC19Pittsburgh9HomeWin107ACC42.249.2
10-12-2013Syracuse_ACC24North Carolina St10RoadWin1417ACC31.348.3
10-10-2013Louisville_AAC24Rutgers10HomeWin1411AAC35.946.9
10-12-2013Auburn_SEC62Western Carolina3HomeWin5940fcs5.645.6
10-12-2013Mississippi_SEC38Texas A&M41HomeLoss-3-7SEC51.544.5
10-12-2013Penn State_B1043Michigan40HomeWin30B104444
10-12-2013Virginia_ACC26Maryland27RoadLoss-10ACC43.943.9
10-12-2013Stanford_P1221Utah27RoadLoss-6-7P1250.343.3
10-12-2013Washington_P1224Oregon45HomeLoss-21-24P1267.343.3
10-12-2013Buffalo_MAC33Western Michigan0RoadWin3330MAC13.143.1
10-12-2013Texas Tech_B1242Iowa St35HomeWin77B1235.942.9
10-10-2013Rutgers_AAC10Louisville24RoadLoss-14-11AAC53.642.6
10-12-2013Central Michigan_MAC26Ohio U.23RoadWin37MAC35.542.5
10-12-2013Iowa St_B1235Texas Tech42RoadLoss-7-7B1249.142.1
10-12-2013Michigan_B1040Penn State43RoadLoss-30B1041.941.9
10-12-2013Tulane_CUSA36East Carolina33HomeWin30CUSA41.841.8
10-12-2013Georgia_SEC26Missouri41HomeLoss-15-18SEC59.341.3
10-12-2013Houston_AAC25Memphis15HomeWin107AAC34.341.3
10-12-2013Kent St_MAC24Ball St27RoadLoss-30MAC40.940.9
10-12-2013Mississippi St_SEC21Bowling Green20HomeWin10MAC40.440.4
10-12-2013Bowling Green_MAC20Mississippi St21RoadLoss-10SEC40.140.1
10-10-2013Arizona_P1231Southern Cal38RoadLoss-7-7P1245.738.7
10-12-2013Pittsburgh_ACC9Virginia Tech19RoadLoss-10-7ACC45.338.3
10-12-2013Marshall_CUSA24Florida Atlantic23RoadWin17CUSA31.138.1
10-12-2013Kansas_B1217TCU27RoadLoss-10-7B124538
10-11-2013Cincinnati_AAC38Temple20HomeWin1815AAC22.137.1
10-12-2013San José St_MWC34Colorado St27RoadWin710MWC26.336.3
10-12-2013Georgia Tech_ACC20Brigham Young38RoadLoss-18-15IND51.136.1
10-12-2013Louisiana-Monroe_SUN21Texas St-San Marcos14RoadWin710SUN26.136.1
10-12-2013Florida Atlantic_CUSA23Marshall24HomeLoss-1-7CUSA41.534.5
10-12-2013Akron_MAC20Northern Illinois27RoadLoss-7-7MAC41.134.1
10-12-2013Memphis_AAC15Houston25RoadLoss-10-7AAC41.134.1
10-12-2013Maryland_ACC27Virginia26HomeWin10ACC34.134.1
10-12-2013Rice_CUSA27Texas-San Antonio21RoadWin69CUSA24.733.7
10-12-2013Arkansas St_SUN48Idaho24HomeWin2421IND12.633.6
10-12-2013Army_IND50Eastern Michigan25HomeWin2522MAC11.133.1
10-12-2013Indiana_B1028Michigan St42RoadLoss-14-11B1043.932.9
10-12-2013TCU_B1227Kansas17HomeWin107B1224.931.9
10-12-2013California_P1210UCLA37RoadLoss-27-24P1255.631.6
10-12-2013East Carolina_CUSA33Tulane36RoadLoss-30CUSA31.431.4
10-12-2013Utah St_MWC23Boise St34HomeLoss-11-14MWC45.331.3
10-12-2013Northern Illinois_MAC27Akron20HomeWin77MAC24.131.1
10-12-2013South Florida_AAC13Connecticut10RoadWin37AAC23.330.3
10-10-2013San Diego St_MWC27Air Force20RoadWin710MWC19.929.9
10-12-2013Wyoming_MWC38New Mexico31HomeWin77MWC22.129.1
10-12-2013Tulsa_CUSA34UTEP20RoadWin1417CUSA11.728.7
10-12-2013Ball St_MAC27Kent St24HomeWin30MAC27.427.4
10-12-2013New Mexico_MWC31Wyoming38RoadLoss-7-7MWC34.327.3
10-12-2013Northwestern_B106Wisconsin35RoadLoss-29-25B1051.326.3
10-12-2013Kentucky_SEC7Alabama48HomeLoss-41-34SEC59.725.7
10-12-2013Oklahoma_B1220Texas36NeutLoss-16-16B1241.525.5
10-12-2013Texas-San Antonio_CUSA21Rice27HomeLoss-6-9CUSA33.424.4
10-12-2013Hawai`i_MWC37UNLV39RoadLoss-20MWC24.424.4
10-12-2013Troy_SUN35Georgia St28RoadWin710SUN13.423.4
10-12-2013UNLV_MWC39Hawai`i37HomeWin20MWC23.123.1
10-12-2013North Carolina St_ACC10Syracuse24HomeLoss-14-17ACC37.320.3
10-12-2013Alabama-Birmingham_CUSA27Florida Int'l24RoadWin37CUSA13.320.3
10-12-2013Colorado_P1213Arizona St54RoadLoss-41-31P1251.220.2
10-12-2013Colorado St_MWC27San José St34HomeLoss-7-10MWC29.619.6
10-12-2013Washington St_P1224Oregon St52HomeLoss-28-27.5P1245.918.4
10-10-2013Air Force_MWC20San Diego St27HomeLoss-7-10MWC28.118.1
10-11-2013Temple_AAC20Cincinnati38RoadLoss-18-15AAC3318
10-12-2013Massachusetts_MAC17Miami OH10HomeWin77MAC10.717.7
10-12-2013Connecticut_AAC10South Florida13HomeLoss-3-7AAC23.816.8
10-12-2013Navy_IND7Duke35RoadLoss-28-24.5ACC40.415.9
10-12-2013Florida Int'l_CUSA24Alabama-Birmingham27HomeLoss-3-7CUSA22.515.5
10-12-2013Middle Tennessee St_CUSA7North Texas34RoadLoss-27-24CUSA38.714.7
10-12-2013Arkansas_SEC7South Carolina52HomeLoss-45-36SEC50.714.7
10-12-2013Georgia St_SUN28Troy35HomeLoss-7-10SUN24.614.6
10-12-2013Purdue_B107Nebraska44HomeLoss-37-32B1046.514.5
10-12-2013Ohio U._MAC23Central Michigan26HomeLoss-3-7MAC19.912.9
10-12-2013Miami OH_MAC10Massachusetts17RoadLoss-7-7MAC18.911.9
10-12-2013Texas St-San Marcos_SUN14Louisiana-Monroe21HomeLoss-7-10SUN21.111.1
10-12-2013Idaho_IND24Arkansas St48RoadLoss-24-21SUN29.38.3
10-12-2013Western Michigan_MAC0Buffalo33HomeLoss-33-30MAC36.36.3
10-12-2013UTEP_CUSA20Tulsa34HomeLoss-14-17CUSA22.15.1
10-12-2013Eastern Michigan_MAC25Army50RoadLoss-25-22IND24.92.9

In addition to Texas’ surprising upset over Oklahoma, three other games stand out as the biggest outliers in terms of regular performance. Last week, Navy was ranked ahead of Duke, but the Blue Devils beat Navy 35-7 in week seven. Oregon Stat has an SRS rating of 45.9, but produced a 67.4 rating by winning 52-24 in Pullman. But the most unusual result of the week? Central Michigan winning at Ohio University. Last week, the Chippewas were the #115 team in the SRS, while the Bobcats ranked 51st. Ohio entered the game as a 20-point favorite, but Central Michigan threw a touchdown with 22 seconds remaining to pull off the upset. The Chippewas’ SRS ratings in each game this season, from worst to best: 3.8, 8.5, 15.5, 17.4, 25.7, 25.8, and 42.5.

{ 2 comments }
  • Ty October 14, 2013, 3:42 pm

    There seems to be more stronger teams at the top compared to last year, although some of the bigger conferences also seem to have become a bit weaker (Big 12, Big 10).

    Reply

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