Here’s a quick set of quarterback ratings I was messing around with, based on Doug’s Simple Rating System. The basic setup: I took every passer-game (Att > 0) since the 2010 season, weighting for recency according to Wayne Winston’s method. I ran the data through the SRS to adjust for the quality of opponent pass defenses, creating a predicted Net YPA rate for each passer in each game via the following formula:
Predicted NYPA = League Constant + Home-Field Advantage + Passer Rating – Opponent Pass D Rating
The league constant in this case was a Net YPA of 6.24; the homefield component (which was positive while at home, negative on the road, and 0 in Super Bowls) was 0.05. Minimize the sum of squared errors between predicted and actual NYPA for each passer-game (weighted by recency and how many dropbacks the passer had in the game), and you’ve got a set of opponent-adjusted, recency-weighted QB ratings.
Throwing out the Brett Favres and Curtis Painters of the world who haven’t been active this year, here are the full ratings:
And if you just limit it to guys who started at least 1 game at QB this year:
| Rnk | Player | Wgtd Drpbks | NYPA Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kirk Cousins | 47.2 | 2.37 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | 467.0 | 1.23 |
| 3 | Russell Wilson | 266.0 | 0.95 |
| 4 | Robert Griffin III | 257.7 | 0.92 |
| 5 | Peyton Manning | 382.9 | 0.78 |
| 6 | Drew Brees | 472.3 | 0.75 |
| 7 | Matt Ryan | 440.8 | 0.73 |
| 8 | Colin Kaepernick | 147.4 | 0.72 |
| 9 | Eli Manning | 399.1 | 0.64 |
| 10 | Cam Newton | 359.5 | 0.64 |
| 11 | Tony Romo | 468.3 | 0.54 |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers | 394.9 | 0.50 |
| 13 | Matt Schaub | 376.3 | 0.39 |
| 14 | Alex Smith | 176.1 | 0.39 |
| 15 | Charlie Batch | 66.1 | 0.37 |
| 16 | Josh Freeman | 395.0 | 0.28 |
| 17 | Ben Roethlisberger | 324.6 | 0.23 |
| 18 | Carson Palmer | 445.6 | 0.15 |
| 19 | Matthew Stafford | 521.2 | 0.10 |
| 20 | Joe Flacco | 410.4 | 0.00 |
| 21 | Andrew Luck | 433.0 | -0.11 |
| 22 | Jake Locker | 192.4 | -0.11 |
| 23 | Sam Bradford | 399.1 | -0.15 |
| 24 | Ryan Tannehill | 320.8 | -0.20 |
| 25 | Michael Vick | 231.4 | -0.30 |
| 26 | Brandon Weeden | 367.1 | -0.40 |
| 27 | Andy Dalton | 395.9 | -0.40 |
| 28 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 374.6 | -0.43 |
| 29 | Jay Cutler | 307.5 | -0.43 |
| 30 | Philip Rivers | 419.2 | -0.49 |
| 31 | Matt Hasselbeck | 181.8 | -0.58 |
| 32 | Chad Henne | 212.4 | -0.59 |
| 33 | Matt Cassel | 196.9 | -0.62 |
| 34 | Mark Sanchez | 318.0 | -0.69 |
| 35 | John Skelton | 172.9 | -1.04 |
| 36 | Nick Foles | 205.3 | -1.16 |
| 37 | Blaine Gabbert | 213.0 | -1.23 |
| 38 | Christian Ponder | 334.1 | -1.23 |
| 39 | Kevin Kolb | 132.1 | -1.38 |
| 40 | Jason Campbell | 55.1 | -1.46 |
| 41 | Brady Quinn | 147.2 | -1.49 |
| 42 | Byron Leftwich | 45.4 | -2.13 |
| 43 | Ryan Lindley | 133.6 | -2.37 |
Chase edit: We can also calculate a “yards over average” statistic for each quarterback, if we multiply his dropbacks by his NY/A rating.
| Player | Wgtd Drpbks | NYPA Rating | VAL OV AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 467 | 1.23 | 574 |
| Drew Brees | 472.3 | 0.75 | 354 |
| Matt Ryan | 440.8 | 0.73 | 322 |
| Peyton Manning | 382.9 | 0.78 | 299 |
| Eli Manning | 399.1 | 0.64 | 255 |
| Tony Romo | 468.3 | 0.54 | 253 |
| Russell Wilson | 266 | 0.95 | 253 |
| Robert Griffin III | 257.7 | 0.92 | 237 |
| Cam Newton | 359.5 | 0.64 | 230 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 394.9 | 0.5 | 197 |
| Matt Schaub | 376.3 | 0.39 | 147 |
| Kirk Cousins | 47.2 | 2.37 | 112 |
| Josh Freeman | 395 | 0.28 | 111 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 147.4 | 0.72 | 106 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 324.6 | 0.23 | 75 |
| Alex Smith | 176.1 | 0.39 | 69 |
| Carson Palmer | 445.6 | 0.15 | 67 |
| Matthew Stafford | 521.2 | 0.1 | 52 |
| Shaun Hill | 8.8 | 5.13 | 45 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 0.6 | 60.94 | 37 |
| Charlie Batch | 66.1 | 0.37 | 24 |
| Kyle Orton | 20.7 | 1.16 | 24 |
| Matt Flynn | 13.2 | 1.74 | 23 |
| Derek Anderson | 2.9 | 3.96 | 11 |
| Kellen Clemens | 9.7 | 0.45 | 4 |
| Chase Daniel | 1.2 | 2.02 | 2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 0.2 | 9.8 | 2 |
| Joe Flacco | 410.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Palmer | 0 | -0.27 | 0 |
| Dennis Dixon | 0.1 | -0.41 | 0 |
| Rusty Smith | 3.3 | -0.03 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2.5 | -0.1 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 0.5 | -0.56 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 4.7 | -0.17 | -1 |
| Trent Edwards | 0.4 | -2.13 | -1 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 1.4 | -1.09 | -2 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 1.3 | -2.17 | -3 |
| Joe Webb | 5.3 | -0.77 | -4 |
| Brad Smith | 0.7 | -6.04 | -4 |
| David Carr | 1.2 | -4.09 | -5 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 26.4 | -0.2 | -5 |
| Luke McCown | 2.5 | -2.14 | -5 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 6.2 | -0.88 | -5 |
| Graham Harrell | 2 | -2.79 | -6 |
| Rex Grossman | 27.3 | -0.21 | -6 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 3.3 | -1.91 | -6 |
| Matt Moore | 36.9 | -0.18 | -7 |
| Ryan Mallett | 3.1 | -2.26 | -7 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | -7.09 | -7 |
| Matt Leinart | 1.6 | -4.71 | -8 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 21.3 | -0.76 | -16 |
| Greg McElroy | 7 | -2.51 | -18 |
| Caleb Hanie | 7.9 | -2.3 | -18 |
| Jake Locker | 192.4 | -0.11 | -21 |
| Colt McCoy | 24.7 | -0.9 | -22 |
| Tim Tebow | 28.3 | -0.96 | -27 |
| T.J. Yates | 22.1 | -1.24 | -27 |
| Andrew Luck | 433 | -0.11 | -48 |
| Sam Bradford | 399.1 | -0.15 | -60 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 320.8 | -0.2 | -64 |
| Michael Vick | 231.4 | -0.3 | -69 |
| Jason Campbell | 55.1 | -1.46 | -80 |
| Byron Leftwich | 45.4 | -2.13 | -97 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 181.8 | -0.58 | -105 |
| Matt Cassel | 196.9 | -0.62 | -122 |
| Chad Henne | 212.4 | -0.59 | -125 |
| Jay Cutler | 307.5 | -0.43 | -132 |
| Brandon Weeden | 367.1 | -0.4 | -147 |
| Andy Dalton | 395.9 | -0.4 | -158 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 374.6 | -0.43 | -161 |
| John Skelton | 172.9 | -1.04 | -180 |
| Kevin Kolb | 132.1 | -1.38 | -182 |
| Philip Rivers | 419.2 | -0.49 | -205 |
| Brady Quinn | 147.2 | -1.49 | -219 |
| Mark Sanchez | 318 | -0.69 | -219 |
| Nick Foles | 205.3 | -1.16 | -238 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 213 | -1.23 | -262 |
| Ryan Lindley | 133.6 | -2.37 | -317 |
| Christian Ponder | 334.1 | -1.23 | -411 |
