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The Bulldogs pushed aside the Tigers in week 7; just not in the SRS

MSU pushed aside Auburn in week 7; (but not in the SRS).

In last week’s rankings, Auburn stood head and shoulders above the rest of college football. As a result, even a 15-point loss on the road against Mississippi State wasn’t enough to nudge the Tigers from the top spot. Is this a problem? Not really. The SRS ratings are predictive; they are not designed to tell you which teams are the most deserving or which schools have accomplished the most. Instead, they are intended to give you an idea of what might happen in a future game between any two teams.

Auburn’s rating is amplified by a 41-7 victory against LSU, which stands out as the most dominant performance of the year. The Tigers also crushed Arkansas by 24, a margin that looks more impressive every week. Other than yesterday’s loss, Auburn’s “worst” performance of the year by SRS standards was a 6-point win on the road against Kansas State (#14 in the SRS), which would be the best game of the year for all but a handful of teams.

The Mississippi schools check in at #2 and #3 in the SRS this week; Alabama and Texas A&M are #8 and #9, giving the SEC West five teams in the top ten yet again. Auburn, with the double-edged sword of a brutal schedule, will have no problem getting back into the playoff discussion if the Tigers can win out. Georgia, fresh off a 34-0 thumping of Missouri, is now 7th in the SRS. But I want to focus on schools 4, 5, and 6 in the ratings. All are from the Big 12, a conference doesn’t appear to be getting much respect nationally.

The ten-team conference plays a round robin schedule, meaning each team gets nine division games. That leaves only 3 nonconference games for each school, and the class of the conference — Baylor, Oklahoma, and TCU — are already done with that part of their schedule. It makes sense to analyze these teams as a group, because for SRS purposes (and based on the two head-to-head games), these three teams are all about equal. In their nine nonconference games, they went 9-0 with an average margin of victory of 41 points, and all wins came by at least 23. Of course, that schedule was loaded with cupcakes: other than Tennessee (currently 12th in the SRS), the only semi-respectable opponents were Minnesota (#38) and Louisiana Tech (#50). And the Vols game is certainly helping: Tennessee is 3-3, but the losses were by 1 point to Florida, 4 to Georgia, and 24 to Oklahoma.

So far, the trio of schools have played four other Big 12 games, and those games are also part of what’s driving these ratings.

  • Against West Virginia, OU won on the road by 12 points. The Mountaineers are 4-2 with their only other loss being a 10-point neutral site loss to the Crimson Tide. In other words, the SRS sees those two games and thinks “Well, we know Alabama is really good, and Oklahoma did even better against a common opponent than Alabama. I guess OU is really good, too.”
  • Against Iowa State, Baylor won by 21 points on the road. That was the biggest loss suffered by the Cyclones this year; so even though ISU may not be very good, Baylor still took care of business there. And Iowa State lost by 4 to Kansas State, and KSU lost by only 6 to Auburn.1
  • Against Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma combined for an average win of 59-33, with neither game coming at home. What does this mean? Well, that depends on how good Texas is. Currently, the answer is not very, as the Longhorns reside at #51 in the SRS. But the margin of victory is still pretty good.

So perhaps the better question is: What have we seen to indicate that the trio of top Big 12 teams aren’t top teams? The worst SRS game happened this week, with Oklahoma only beating Texas by 5. After that, the next worst game2 is probably Oklahoma’s 12-point win against West Virginia. If that’s the second worst performance, these teams have certainly earned the benefit of the doubt. Until they struggle against the rest of the conference — and considering just one team (Kansas State) is currently in the top 30 of the SRS, struggling can be used liberally here — there’s no reason Baylor, Oklahoma, and TCU shouldn’t continue to rank in the top 10.

Below are the week 7 ratings. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs.

RkTeamConfConf RkGMOVSOSSRSREC
1AuburnSEC1617.349.8675-1
2Mississippi StSEC2618.145.663.76-0
3MississippiSEC3621.441.462.86-0
4BaylorB121626.335.762.16-0
5TCUB122519.242.8624-1
6OklahomaB123616.445.161.55-1
7GeorgiaSEC4619.84160.85-1
8AlabamaSEC5614.943.958.85-1
9Texas A&MSEC6715.740.556.25-2
10OregonP121615.640.4565-1
11Michigan StB101618.236.454.65-1
12TennesseeSEC766.348.254.53-3
13Florida StACC1617.636.854.46-0
14Kansas StB12451638.354.34-1
15Notre DameInd1615.238.753.96-0
16LSUSEC8711.642.253.85-2
17UCLAP12265.747.853.54-2
18ClemsonACC2610.942.453.34-2
19Ohio StateB10251835.153.14-1
20NebraskaB103616.536.252.75-1
21UtahP123515.436.952.34-1
22FloridaSEC956.445.451.83-2
23LouisvilleACC3714.536.851.35-2
24ArkansasSEC10610.340.851.13-3
25Southern CalP12468.741.650.24-2
26StanfordP12561337.150.14-2
27MarshallCUSA1626.723.149.76-0
28Virginia TechACC469.538.948.44-2
29MissouriSEC1166.241.647.84-2
30ArizonaP12669.537.847.35-1
31WashingtonP127612.933.846.75-1
32Oklahoma StB125610.63646.65-1
33VirginiaACC56739.546.54-2
34DukeACC6617.828.546.45-1
35East CarolinaAmer1615.530.646.15-1
36West VirginiaB12667.138.9464-2
37WisconsinB104611.833.945.64-2
38MinnesotaB10567.837.845.65-1
39Brigham YoungInd267.637.945.54-2
40MarylandB10668.33745.44-2
41KentuckySEC12613.630.944.55-1
42PittsburghACC767.836.744.53-3
43South CarolinaSEC136-2.646.944.33-3
44MemphisAmer268.835.444.33-3
45Boston CollegeACC869.434.944.34-2
46Arizona StP12851034.344.34-1
47Miami FLACC976.138.144.24-3
48IowaB10767.336.6445-1
49Georgia TechACC1068.235.743.95-1
50Louisiana TechCUSA26538.843.83-3
51TexasB1276-2.946.343.42-4
52Arkansas StSun167.835.142.84-2
53Utah StMWC164.338.342.64-2
54Colorado StMWC2611.330.441.75-1
55Alabama-BirminghamCUSA3610.330.841.14-2
56Central FloridaAmer352.238.740.93-2
57NorthwesternB1086337.640.63-3
58Penn StateB10964.735.640.34-2
59Boise StMWC364.535.740.24-2
60CaliforniaP12962.637.239.84-2
61IndianaB101061.137.638.73-3
62Washington StP12107-1.44038.72-5
63TempleAmer4518.620.138.74-1
64Iowa StB1286-947.538.52-4
65SyracuseACC116-7.846.238.52-4
66Western KentuckyCUSA454.533.337.82-3
67Georgia SouthernSun2716.121.537.65-2
68MichiganB10117-0.938.537.63-4
69RutgersB10126729.936.95-1
70North CarolinaACC126-5.541.936.42-4
71NevadaMWC460.735.436.13-3
72HoustonAmer56530.735.73-3
73North Carolina StACC1370.335.335.64-3
74Oregon StP121155.43035.44-1
75PurdueB10137-4.940.235.33-4
76Florida Int'lCUSA571.633.435.13-4
77ToledoMAC17-0.13534.94-3
78AkronMAC26529.734.74-2
79RiceCUSA66-0.435.134.73-3
80NavyInd371.432.233.73-4
81Texas TechB1296-8.441.733.32-4
82Central MichiganMAC371.731.3334-3
83CincinnatiAmer65-7.239.832.62-3
84Air ForceMWC565.62732.64-2
85Middle Tennessee StCUSA772.130.132.24-3
86South AlabamaSun352.229.932.13-2
87Western MichiganMAC463.228.8323-3
88San José StMWC65-334.831.82-3
89IllinoisB10147-6.738.531.83-4
90ColoradoP12126-4.235.931.72-4
91Hawai`iMWC76-4.835.730.92-4
92Texas-San AntonioCUSA86-5.335.830.52-4
93Northern IllinoisMAC562.527.429.94-2
94WyomingMWC86-8.738.429.73-3
95KansasB12106-10.438.728.32-4
96Florida AtlanticCUSA96-9.73828.32-4
97San Diego StMWC963.324.928.33-3
98Fresno StMWC107-5.133.128.13-4
99Bowling GreenMAC67-0.127.727.75-2
100Wake ForestACC146-6.834.227.52-4
101North TexasCUSA106-3.930.826.92-4
102Ball StMAC76-3.730.526.81-5
103UTEPCUSA116-6.232.326.23-3
104VanderbiltSEC147-15.641.525.92-5
105Louisiana-MonroeSun46-8.43425.63-3
106South FloridaAmer76-10.134.924.82-4
107Texas St-San MarcosSun556.617.824.43-2
108ArmyInd46-7.331.123.82-4
109BuffaloMAC87-1.425.123.83-4
110TulaneAmer86-9.632.923.42-4
111Southern MissCUSA126-14.437.623.22-4
112MassachusettsMAC97-6.629.723.11-6
113Ohio U.MAC107-6.829.722.93-4
114Louisiana-LafayetteSun65-10.13322.92-3
115Old DominionCUSA137-5.528.222.73-4
116Miami OHMAC117-1032.622.61-6
117New MexicoMWC116-7.729.221.62-4
118TulsaAmer96-15.236.321.21-5
119TroySun76-14.334.420.11-5
120SMUAmer105-32.250.718.50-5
121New Mexico StSun87-9.127.318.22-5
122ConnecticutAmer116-13.331.518.21-5
123Appalachian StSun96-6.624.417.81-5
124Georgia StSun106-13.429.616.21-5
125Kent StMAC126-19.234.615.50-6
126Eastern MichiganMAC136-18.233.415.32-4
127IdahoSun116-13.929.115.20-6
128UNLVMWC127-15.929.914.12-5

Other undefeated notes: Florida State and Notre Dame are now both inside the top 15 of the rankings, although both continue to invite more questions than answers. The schools play each other in week 8, though, and the winner should move into the top 10. More importantly, the winner of that game will be in the pole position for one of the four playoff spots. Louisville has a chance to be a spoiler regardless of what happens: the Cardinals host Florida State on the Thursday before Halloween, and travel to South Bend on November 22nd.

Below are the results from each game in week 7. No surprise here: the two Mississippi schools were dominant this week; they join Georgia in producing the only 70+ point performances of the week.

DateTm_ConfPFOppPAH/RW/LDiffMOVOpp_ConfSOSSRS
10-11-2014Mississippi St_SEC38Auburn23HomeWin1512SEC6779
10-11-2014Georgia_SEC34Missouri0RoadWin3430.5SEC47.878.3
10-11-2014Mississippi_SEC35Texas A&M20RoadWin1518SEC56.274.2
10-11-2014Oregon_P1242UCLA30RoadWin1215P1253.568.5
10-11-2014Washington_P1231California7RoadWin2425.5P1239.865.3
10-11-2014TCU_B1258Baylor61RoadLoss-30B1262.162.1
10-11-2014Baylor_B1261TCU58HomeWin30B126262
10-11-2014Florida St_ACC38Syracuse20RoadWin1821ACC38.559.5
10-11-2014LSU_SEC30Florida27RoadWin37SEC51.858.8
10-11-2014Clemson_ACC23Louisville17HomeWin67ACC51.358.3
10-11-2014Alabama_SEC14Arkansas13RoadWin17SEC51.158.1
10-11-2014Tennessee_SEC45Chattanooga10HomeWin3528fcs29.457.4
10-11-2014Alabama-Birmingham_CUSA56North Texas21HomeWin3528CUSA26.954.9
10-11-2014Boston College_ACC30North Carolina St14RoadWin1619ACC35.654.6
10-11-2014Texas_B1226Oklahoma31NeutLoss-5-7B1261.554.5
10-11-2014Southern Cal_P1228Arizona26RoadWin27P1247.354.3
10-11-2014Marshall_CUSA49Middle Tennessee St24HomeWin2522CUSA32.254.2
10-11-2014Kentucky_SEC48Louisiana-Monroe14HomeWin3427.5Sun25.653.1
10-11-2014Duke_ACC31Georgia Tech25RoadWin69ACC43.952.9
10-10-2014Stanford_P1234Washington St17HomeWin1714P1238.752.7
10-09-2014Central Florida_Amer31Brigham Young24HomeWin77Ind45.552.5
10-11-2014Michigan St_B1045Purdue31RoadWin1417B1035.352.3
10-11-2014Arkansas_SEC13Alabama14HomeLoss-1-7SEC58.851.8
10-11-2014Iowa_B1045Indiana29HomeWin1613B1038.751.7
10-11-2014Auburn_SEC23Mississippi St38RoadLoss-15-12SEC63.751.7
10-11-2014Houston_Amer28Memphis24RoadWin47Amer44.351.3
10-11-2014Arkansas St_Sun52Georgia St10RoadWin4234.5Sun16.250.7
10-11-2014Miami FL_ACC55Cincinnati34HomeWin2118Amer32.650.6
10-11-2014Oklahoma_B1231Texas26NeutWin57B1243.450.4
10-11-2014Central Michigan_MAC34Northern Illinois17RoadWin1720MAC29.949.9
10-11-2014Minnesota_B1024Northwestern17HomeWin77B1040.647.6
10-11-2014Utah St_MWC34Air Force16HomeWin1815MWC32.647.6
10-11-2014Michigan_B1018Penn State13HomeWin57B1040.347.3
10-11-2014North Carolina_ACC43Notre Dame50RoadLoss-7-7Ind53.946.9
10-11-2014Rice_CUSA41Army21RoadWin2023Ind23.846.8
10-11-2014Florida_SEC27LSU30HomeLoss-3-7SEC53.846.8
10-11-2014Louisville_ACC17Clemson23RoadLoss-6-7ACC53.346.3
10-11-2014Colorado St_MWC31Nevada24RoadWin710MWC36.146.1
10-11-2014Texas A&M_SEC20Mississippi35HomeLoss-15-18SEC62.844.8
10-11-2014Bowling Green_MAC31Ohio U.13RoadWin1821MAC22.943.9
10-11-2014Notre Dame_Ind50North Carolina43HomeWin77ACC36.443.4
10-11-2014Arizona_P1226Southern Cal28HomeLoss-2-7P1250.243.2
10-11-2014Iowa St_B1237Toledo30HomeWin77MAC34.941.9
10-11-2014UCLA_P1230Oregon42HomeLoss-12-15P125641
10-11-2014Massachusetts_MAC40Kent St17RoadWin2325MAC15.540.5
10-11-2014West Virginia_B1237Texas Tech34RoadWin37B1233.340.3
10-11-2014Texas Tech_B1234West Virginia37HomeLoss-3-7B124639
10-11-2014East Carolina_Amer28South Florida17RoadWin1114Amer24.838.8
10-11-2014Wisconsin_B1038Illinois28HomeWin107B1031.838.8
10-11-2014Illinois_B1028Wisconsin38RoadLoss-10-7B1045.638.6
10-11-2014Northwestern_B1017Minnesota24RoadLoss-7-7B1045.638.6
10-11-2014Oklahoma St_B1227Kansas20RoadWin710B1228.338.3
10-11-2014Purdue_B1031Michigan St45HomeLoss-14-17B1054.637.6
10-11-2014Georgia Tech_ACC25Duke31HomeLoss-6-9ACC46.437.4
10-11-2014Hawai`i_MWC38Wyoming28HomeWin107MWC29.736.7
10-11-2014Kansas_B1220Oklahoma St27HomeLoss-7-10B1246.636.6
10-10-2014Washington St_P1217Stanford34RoadLoss-17-14P1250.136.1
10-11-2014Georgia Southern_Sun47Idaho24HomeWin2320Sun15.235.2
10-11-2014Texas-San Antonio_CUSA16Florida Int'l13HomeWin30CUSA35.135.1
10-10-2014San Diego St_MWC24New Mexico14RoadWin1013MWC21.634.6
10-09-2014Brigham Young_Ind24Central Florida31RoadLoss-7-7Amer40.933.9
10-11-2014Western Michigan_MAC42Ball St38RoadWin47MAC26.833.8
10-11-2014Syracuse_ACC20Florida St38HomeLoss-18-21ACC54.433.4
10-11-2014Troy_Sun41New Mexico St24HomeWin1714Sun18.232.2
10-11-2014South Florida_Amer17East Carolina28HomeLoss-11-14Amer46.132.1
10-11-2014Nevada_MWC24Colorado St31HomeLoss-7-10MWC41.731.7
10-11-2014Toledo_MAC30Iowa St37RoadLoss-7-7B1238.531.5
10-11-2014Navy_Ind51VMI14HomeWin3729fcs2.231.2
10-11-2014Indiana_B1029Iowa45RoadLoss-16-13B104431
10-11-2014Eastern Michigan_MAC37Buffalo27HomeWin107MAC23.830.8
10-11-2014Tulsa_Amer24Temple35RoadLoss-11-8Amer38.730.7
10-11-2014Penn State_B1013Michigan18RoadLoss-5-7B1037.630.6
10-11-2014Florida Int'l_CUSA13Texas-San Antonio16RoadLoss-30CUSA30.530.5
10-11-2014Missouri_SEC0Georgia34HomeLoss-34-30.5SEC60.830.3
10-11-2014UTEP_CUSA42Old Dominion35HomeWin77CUSA22.729.7
10-11-2014Akron_MAC29Miami OH19HomeWin107MAC22.629.6
10-11-2014Temple_Amer35Tulsa24HomeWin118Amer21.229.2
10-11-2014Memphis_Amer24Houston28HomeLoss-4-7Amer35.728.7
10-10-2014UNLV_MWC30Fresno St27HomeWin30MWC28.128.1
10-11-2014Miami OH_MAC19Akron29RoadLoss-10-7MAC34.727.7
10-11-2014Middle Tennessee St_CUSA24Marshall49RoadLoss-25-22CUSA49.727.7
10-11-2014Air Force_MWC16Utah St34RoadLoss-18-15MWC42.627.6
10-11-2014Cincinnati_Amer34Miami FL55RoadLoss-21-18ACC44.226.2
10-11-2014North Carolina St_ACC14Boston College30HomeLoss-16-19ACC44.325.3
10-11-2014Tulane_Amer12Connecticut3HomeWin97Amer18.225.2
10-11-2014Ball St_MAC38Western Michigan42HomeLoss-4-7MAC3225
10-11-2014Wyoming_MWC28Hawai`i38RoadLoss-10-7MWC30.923.9
10-11-2014California_P127Washington31HomeLoss-24-25.5P1246.721.2
10-11-2014Old Dominion_CUSA35UTEP42RoadLoss-7-7CUSA26.219.2
10-11-2014Idaho_Sun24Georgia Southern47RoadLoss-23-20Sun37.617.6
10-11-2014Louisiana-Monroe_Sun14Kentucky48RoadLoss-34-27.5SEC44.517
10-11-2014Connecticut_Amer3Tulane12RoadLoss-9-7Amer23.416.4
10-11-2014Vanderbilt_SEC21Charleston Southern20HomeWin10fcs16.316.3
10-10-2014New Mexico_MWC14San Diego St24HomeLoss-10-13MWC28.315.3
10-10-2014Fresno St_MWC27UNLV30RoadLoss-30MWC14.114.1
10-11-2014North Texas_CUSA21Alabama-Birmingham56RoadLoss-35-28CUSA41.113.1
10-11-2014Northern Illinois_MAC17Central Michigan34HomeLoss-17-20MAC3313
10-11-2014Army_Ind21Rice41HomeLoss-20-23CUSA34.711.7
10-11-2014Appalachian St_Sun48Liberty55HomeLoss-7-10fcs21.211.2
10-11-2014Georgia St_Sun10Arkansas St52HomeLoss-42-34.5Sun42.88.3
10-11-2014Buffalo_MAC27Eastern Michigan37RoadLoss-10-7MAC15.38.3
10-11-2014Ohio U._MAC13Bowling Green31HomeLoss-18-21MAC27.76.7
10-11-2014New Mexico St_Sun24Troy41RoadLoss-17-14Sun20.16.1
10-11-2014Kent St_MAC17Massachusetts40HomeLoss-23-25MAC23.1-1.9

And don’t forget: the NCAA Games page has been updated, showing the results (and therefore the math behind each team’s season rating) for each FBS team in each game in 2014.

  1. If you want to engage in even more six degrees action, Iowa State beat Iowa, which beat Indiana by 16. Indiana, you may recall, beat Missouri, which impacts the ratings of all of the SEC teams Missouri played. []
  2. Excluding blowouts of over 30 points against terrible teams that actually drive down that ratings, and losses to each other. []