For the second week in a row, the Jaguars had the worst Game Script score. And for the second week in a row, Peyton Manning’s Broncos held an average lead of over 15 points. These two teams play in Denver in week six, and the early reports suggest that the line will be 27 points, the highest spread in N.F.L. history. The current record was set in 1976, when the expansion (and winless) Bucs traveled to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that had won the past two Super Bowls and had allowed just 28 points in their last seven games. That game had a spread of 26 points, and the Steelers won 43-0.
Here’s how to read the table below. The Colts won in Jacksonville (you can click the boxscore to see the full PFR boxscore), 37-3. Indianapolis won by 34, and held an average lead of 15.5 points throughout the game. Andrew Luck, Trent Richardson, and the rest of the Colts had 41 passes and 29 runs, giving them a 58.6% pass/run ratio. Meanwhile, the Jaguars threw 35 passes and had just 17 runs, giving them a 67.3% pass/run ratio. With few exceptions, the team with the positive game script has the lower pass/run ratio, and that effect is just magnified when the Game Script is large.
|Winner||H/R||Loser||Boxscore||PF||PA||Margin||Game Script||Pass||Run||P/R Ratio||Opp_P||Opp_R||Opp_P/R Ratio|
The Seahawks-Texans game was the big comeback of the week, and Seattle’s Game Script during regulation was -7.7. That matches the -7.7 number posted by the Chargers during week 1, so the Texans have now been on both sides of the two biggest comebacks of 2013. Fans were burning Matt Schaub jerseys in the parking lot, so that tells you a lot about how that game went down. In case you missed it, Schaub threw a pick-six, up by seven, in the final three minutes of the game. He joins Donovan McNabb (against the Cowboys) as the only quarterbacks since 2000 to throw a pick-six in the final three minutes of a game while protecting a one score lead.
What about the average field position data from week 4?
The table below shows the average yardline where each snap by each offense occurred in week three1; remember, having the ball on your opponent’s one-yard line gets recorded as a “99″ while having the ball at your own one is simply a “1.”
|Team||# plays||Avg Yardline|
During the Jets game, I made a mental note to check the Titans’ average field position, because it seemed like they were in field goal range on just about every snap against the Jets. The second half changed the numbers, but in the first half, Tennessee’s average play was at the Jets 35-yard line! Following three Geno Smith turnovers, the Titans started drives in the first half at the Jets 18-, 26-, and 46-yard line, and scored touchdowns on all three drives.
The other team in New York continues to struggle in this department. The Giants led the league in this metric last year, but have had horrible field position in each of the last two weeks.
I’ll cut the commentary short and open things up to the comments: what do you find interest or surprising about the results from week 4?