The Seahawks have met high expectations this year, thanks to #3
Nobody is surprised to see the New England Patriots or the Seattle Seahawks hosting games on championship Sunday. The Patriots are in the AFC title game for the 9th time in 14 years — NINE times! That is insane. Only six other teams — the Steelers, 49ers, Cowboys, Raiders, Broncos, and Rams — have been to nine conference championship games since 1970, a feat New England has matched since 2001.
Perhaps even more incredibly: on Sunday, Foxboro will be the site of the AFC title game for the 7th time in 14 years. Since 1970, just two other cities — Pittsburgh and San Francisco — can match that claim. For some perspective, New York has hosted just two conference title games — the Giants in ’86 and ’00.
Oh, and if you’re counting at home, this will also be the fourth straight year with the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Ho hum.
As for Seattle? The Seahawks are the defending champions, and were arguably the top team in football by the end of the 2012 season, too. Seeing Seattle in the NFC Championship Game is no surprise to any football fan.
The Packers and Colts are only slightly more surprising participants. At the start of the season, Green Bay was tied with New Orleans for having the third best odds (behind Seattle and San Francisco) for winning the Super Bowl; the Colts were a distant third behind the Denver/New England tier in the AFC, but still, no other AFC team was as clear a Super Bowl contender after the Broncos and Patriots as Indianapolis. The table below shows the odds (from Bovada) each team was given to winning the Super Bowl at various points in the off-season; the final two columns display what percentage those odds convert to, both before and after adjusting for the vigorish:
| Rk | Team | 2/3/14 Odds | 5/12/14 Odds | 7/31/14 Odds | 9/4/14 Odds | Percentage | Vig-Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denver Broncos | 8/1 | 7/1 | 13/2 | 11/2 | 15.4% | 12.4% |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 9/2 | 6/1 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 14.3% | 11.5% |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 14/1 | 15/2 | 8/1 | 8/1 | 11.1% | 9% |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 15/2 | 15/2 | 15/2 | 8/1 | 11.1% | 9% |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 16/1 | 12/1 | 10/1 | 9/1 | 10% | 8.1% |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints | 18/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 | 9/1 | 10% | 8.1% |
| 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | 25/1 | 22/1 | 25/1 | 20/1 | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 25/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 | 22/1 | 4.3% | 3.5% |
| 8 | Indianapolis Colts | 28/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 | 22/1 | 4.3% | 3.5% |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 33/1 | 50/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals | 33/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2% |
| 11 | Atlanta Falcons | 25/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2% |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2% |
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 25/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2% |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 33/1 | 33/1 | 28/1 | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2% |
| 11 | San Diego Chargers | 33/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2% |
| 17 | Carolina Panthers | 25/1 | 28/1 | 40/1 | 50/1 | 2% | 1.6% |
| 17 | Kansas City Chiefs | 28/1 | 33/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 2% | 1.6% |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 33/1 | 40/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 19 | Houston Texans | 40/1 | 40/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 19 | Miami Dolphins | 50/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 19 | New York Giants | 33/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | 66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 19 | St. Louis Rams | 40/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 50/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 19 | Washington Redskins | 40/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | 66/1 | 50/1 | 75/1 | 75/1 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 26 | Minnesota Vikings | 75/1 | 50/1 | 100/1 | 75/1 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 26 | New York Jets | 50/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 75/1 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 29 | Buffalo Bills | 75/1 | 75/1 | 75/1 | 100/1 | 1% | 0.8% |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | 50/1 | 75/1 | 100/1 | 100/1 | 1% | 0.8% |
| 31 | Oakland Raiders | 75/1 | 100/1 | 100/1 | 200/1 | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 100/1 | 100/1 | 250/1 | 250/1 | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Based on the above, this is one of the least surprising set of final four participants we will have on championship weekend. There’s some other evidence that gets us to a similar conclusion.
Coaches
In 1983, the Los Angeles, Seattle, Washington, and San Francisco made it to the conference championship weekend. The four coaches were Tom Flores (who won a Super Bowl in 1980), Chuck Knox, Joe Gibbs (who was the defending Super Bowl champion coach), and Bill Walsh (who had won the Super Bowl in ’81).
The following year, San Francisco, Chicago, Miami, and Pittsburgh made it to the title game. The head coaches: Walsh, Don Shula (who had won multiple Super Bowls), Chuck Noll (same), and Mike Ditka.
The ’83 and ’84 seasons were the only two times that the AFC and NFC title games featured three coaches who had previously won a Super Bowl (there have never been four). This year, Bill Belichick (three-time Super Bowl champ), Pete Carroll (last year’s Super Bowl champion), Mike McCarthy (2010 Super Bowl champ) join Chuck Pagano in the NFL’s final four.
Quarterbacks
The three head coaches who have previously won Super Bowls did so with the same quarterbacks they have today: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers, respectively. This marks just the second time ever — joining Jim Plunkett, Joe Theismann, and Joe Montana in 1983 — that three of the four quarterbacks on conference championship weekend already owned Super Bowl rings. Given that Andrew Luck is the least-accomplished man in the room (for the first time ever, I presume), this is one of the most star-studded quartet of quarterbacks in conference championship game history, too.