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Guest post: Expected Touchdowns

Munir Mohamed, a reader of Football Perspective, is back for another guest post. And I thank him for it.


 

Methodology: I looked at the expected touchdown rate on each yard line from inside the five-yard line in goal-to-go situations, then assigned touchdowns over expectation based on the number of scores above or below average the expected rate. For example, passes from the 1-yard line score a touchdown 50% of the time. Therefore, if a quarterback throws a touchdown when the line of scrimmage is the one, he receives +0.5 touchdowns over expectation. If he didn’t throw a touchdown, he is credited with -0.5 touchdowns over expectation. The numbers in this article are from 1998-2014. Note that touchdowns, like nearly every other statistic in football, is a reflection of not just a player, but his team. A player who scores highly in this metric may simply be great at scoring touchdowns, may have played with coaches or teammates who significantly aided his production, may be lucky over a small sample size, or a combination of several of those factors. But we can discuss the reasons behind the data in the comments: let’s get to the data, and begin with passing touchdowns.

PlayerCmpAttYdsTDIntexp TD over averageAY/A over expected
Tom Brady124209328110220.2648.5
Brett Favre8815323181415365
Carson Palmer6811217158111.2348.8
Kurt Warner6710817358310.7264
Aaron Rodgers721221986139.6254.8
Brian Griese44661043718.3232.6
Peyton Manning14628539113158342
Josh Freeman2742612536.561.4
Daunte Culpepper40751003815.8172.4
Rich Gannon2443662314.6114.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick36631053114.5148.9
Tony Romo581181595444.156.4
Matt Ryan631181595523.9153.9
Kordell Stewart1526591403.9130.5
Ben Roethlisberger731371886213.8224.2
Drew Brees1162102799423.7271.5
Matt Schaub41801143813.5145.8
Seneca Wallace101324903.593.2
Vinny Testaverde2341562103.1119.9
Jake Plummer4179943833.132.8
Christian Ponder1523341322.93.3
Ryan Tannehill2342652012.669.6
Steve McNair39801073732.526.6
Derek Carr111526902.475.9
Ray Lucas81322812.325.1
Mike Glennon101624902.370.2
Andy Dalton2346622212.161.5
Chris Redman61021602.161
Chad Pennington3161742812.170.6
Austin Davis71023602.163.2
Brian Hoyer7121770256.6
Jon Kitna46911184121.968.2
Brad Johnson3267973021.839.9
Doug Flutie1324351211.624
Matt Hasselbeck541191615231.452.8
Jake Delhomme3467933011.376.5
Alex Smith3366892911.368
Tim Couch1533461511.325.4
Jim Miller61214601.235.8
Shaun King81522821.1-42.3
Sage Rosenfels91625821-42.8
Matt Flynn61218600.936.4
Patrick Ramsey112038900.952.5
Jake Locker61116500.626.7
Shaun Hill1431411420.5-35.4
Andrew Luck2950672200.581
Derek Anderson2652642310.429.9
Trent Green3064862760.4-177.4
Colin Kaepernick1628311230.3-100.6
Matthew Stafford37811013620.325.5
J.P. Losman91930830.2-102
Brandon Weeden81824800.230
Donovan McNabb821542036630.275.2
Luke McCown61014410.2-30.1
Billy Volek71619710.2-22.1
Jeff George101923800.123.8
David Carr163744161-0.10.6
Mark Brunell336677282-0.1-14.2
Akili Smith4101641-0.1-32.6
Tarvaris Jackson7151662-0.2-79.8
Rex Grossman204657190-0.249.2
Kelly Holcomb142828120-0.424.1
Charlie Batch122735110-0.428
Elvis Grbac132436100-0.429.7
JaMarcus Russell5131550-0.45.8
Kevin Kolb8182472-0.4-77
Randall Cunningham5111240-0.50.8
Damon Huard10222980-0.512.7
A.J. Feeley6131751-0.5-39.3
Shane Matthews6141750-0.53.5
Geno Smith5111140-0.5-1.5
Matt Leinart4121740-0.51.7
Russell Wilson183232131-0.5-23.1
Bruce Gradkowski5141551-0.6-45
Trent Edwards5121351-0.6-41
Charlie Frye4111441-0.7-46.5
Chris Weinke5131151-0.8-48.3
Josh McCown123136123-0.8-117.3
Kellen Clemens7161861-0.9-43.7
Brady Quinn4121240-0.9-7.7
Tyler Thigpen6161861-1.1-46.5
Mark Sanchez205057200-1.136
John Skelton3101030-1.2-14
Case Keenum4101330-1.2-11.8
Matt Cassel204454181-1.2-12.1
Sam Bradford275972252-1.5-38.1
Nick Foles9222881-1.6-45.9
Gus Frerotte183841141-1.6-40.6
Chris Chandler8183251-1.8-55.7
Alex Van Pelt411430-2-33.6
Tommy Maddox9252281-2.2-69.5
Kerry Collins418397341-2.213.7
Cam Newton154038140-2.2-11
Kyle Orton286883271-2.5-10.4
Trent Dilfer122725102-2.6-109
Jeff Garcia3786112332-2.7-36.5
Tony Banks8242382-2.9-118.2
Quincy Carter5161341-3-91.3
Jason Campbell327195270-336
Marc Bulger235563202-3.1-91.7
Colt McCoy8211560-3.2-49.4
Rob Johnson316830-3.3-60.6
Robert Griffin9242470-3.3-40.4
Byron Leftwich8242670-3.3-39.9
Vince Young11261781-3.3-92.5
Matt Moore123225101-3.4-89.6
Cleo Lemon210710-3.5-61.7
Aaron Brooks225263182-3.5-101.3
Steve Beuerlein113326112-3.6-130.2
Kyle Boller153626121-3.6-88.8
Drew Bledsoe348699325-3.7-204.2
Philip Rivers60137177532-4-0.1
Tim Rattay7221651-4-111
Jay Fiedler9271873-4.2-202
Jeff Blake143630112-4.4-146.7
Joe Flacco276569242-4.5-103.2
Eli Manning75165205667-4.6-197.9
David Garrard266361222-4.7-120.9
Jay Cutler46114119423-6.2-139.2
Blaine Gabbert8302462-6.3-194.7
Chad Henne185458161-6.3-117.3
Michael Vick46109109355-10.9-335.3
Joey Harrington257550204-11.5-364.8

Tom Brady is by far the best goal line quarterback by this measurement, leading the Patriots to 20 more touchdowns through the air than we would expect based on league-average rates. Brady did it by being amazing from the 1- and 2-yard lines. There, he completed over 67% of his passes with 64 touchdown throws and zero interceptions. Brady has a commanding lead in 1-yard and 2-yard line touchdowns over expectation (he also leads from the 5-yard line). For what it’s worth, Rob Gronkowski “only” has nine touchdowns from inside of two yards.

As you would expect, the better NFL quarterbacks are generally rated higher by this stat. All of the passers in the top 10 in Adjusted Yards per Attempt over expectation made it to a pro bowl during their careers. The bottom 10 of the list features some draft busts like Joey Harrington and Blaine Gabbert; on the other hand, it also includes pro bowl caliber players like Trent Green, Jay Cutler, and Eli Manning.

Rushing

RunnerAttYdsTDexp TD over average
Shaun Alexander1091066114.3
Priest Holmes911254713.6
LaDainian Tomlinson1912208610.5
T.J. Duckett5857339.4
Marshall Faulk77108409.3
Cam Newton3056207.6
Donovan McNabb2730187.5
Adrian Peterson9398457
Rashard Mendenhall6176316.6
Rudi Johnson5276266.5
Jeff Garcia2946186.4
Ahman Green5964306.4
Steve McNair2437176.3
Kevan Barlow3746216.3
Ahmad Bradshaw4148215.3
Jamaal Charles3361185.3
LenDale White3339194.7
Daunte Culpepper3550194.7
David Garrard1535104.7
Travis Henry5888274.4
Matthew Stafford1219104.3
Tyrone Wheatley4668224.3
Darren McFadden2951154.1
Corey Dillon100115424
Mark Sanchez1318103.9
Ronnie Brown5555253.8
Dorsey Levens2524143.8
Stacey Mack4449203.7
DeMarco Murray3744183.5
Matt Asiata1733103.4
BenJarvus Green-Ellis6475323.1
Alfred Morris3242163
Ricky Williams9197392.8
Knile Davis101962.8
Aaron Brooks1520102.8
Joique Bell2526142.7
Eddie Lacy2229122.6
Michael Vick3820172.5
Deuce McAllister80110322.5
Andy Dalton121972.5
Carson Palmer10972.4
Michael Turner108123462.4
Drew Brees162092.3
Matt Hasselbeck122172.3
Mike Cloud141682.3
Larry Johnson8081352.3
Lamar Smith3547162.2
Darren Sproles182782.2
Arian Foster8094342.1
Beanie Wells2932142.1
Jerome Bettis93121412
Clinton Portis107104442
Kenny Watson122062
Brandon Jacobs8566401.9
Ben Roethlisberger121571.9
Jamel White142181.9
Aaron Rodgers1713101.9
Le'Ron McClain2325111.8
Vince Young122461.8
Richard Huntley122061.8
Kevin Faulk152671.7
Andre Williams111861.7
Domanick Williams3241151.6
Jeremy Hill122361.5
Correll Buckhalter2425121.5
Marshawn Lynch9688391.5
Drew Bledsoe10761.4
Bilal Powell122351.4
Andre Brown191191.4
Anthony Thomas3045131.4
Charlie Garner2841111.4
Jay Fiedler12871.3
Bob Christian141581.3
Terry Kirby10761.3
Frank Moreau101651.2
Maurice Morris131861.2
Jamal Anderson121451.2
Ryan Mathews172581.2
Tim Hightower3324161.1
Sammy Morris3228141.1
Travis Minor101551.1
Mario Bates2020101
Le'Veon Bell2426110.9
Curtis Martin7277280.9
Jon Kitna111250.8
Jeff Blake10650.8
Tony Richardson2128100.8
LaBrandon Toefield10950.7
Cedric Benson5041210.7
Brad Johnson11860.7
Onterrio Smith112840.7
Giovani Bernard162470.6
DeAngelo Williams3748140.6
Adrian Peterson111640.6
Mike Karney101250.6
Brian Westbrook3334130.5
Robert Holcombe222290.5
Peyton Manning247120.5
James Mungro131760.5
Knowshon Moreno4756200.4
Eddie George8697320.4
Jake Delhomme10450.4
Donald Brown203370.4
Fred Jackson4865190.4
Laurence Maroney3139130.3
Garrison Hearst212380.3
Derrick Blaylock151660.3
Justin Fargas243490.2
Jake Plummer13860.2
Chris Ivory242390.2
Joe Flacco16180.2
James Stewart6184250.2
Marion Barber90101380.2
Anthony Dixon171780.2
LeSean McCoy5642220.2
Obafemi Ayanbadejo101540.1
Mike Tolbert5650250.1
Kordell Stewart2219100.1
Samkon Gado121550.1
Jonathan Linton141750
Ricky Watters232990
Marques Anderson22228-0.1
Donnell Bennett19206-0.2
Lamar Miller18276-0.2
Doug Martin16186-0.2
Cedric Houston15196-0.2
Montee Ball12114-0.2
Kevin Smith282411-0.3
Troy Hambrick19127-0.4
Tom Brady282113-0.4
Felix Jones12154-0.4
Tiki Barber695625-0.4
Jonathan Stewart433517-0.4
Zac Stacy17186-0.4
Terrell Davis13134-0.4
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala1284-0.4
Joseph Addai576521-0.4
Ryan Grant355112-0.5
Derrick Ward1576-0.5
Emmitt Smith666826-0.5
Robert Smith10133-0.5
Curtis Enis10113-0.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick1597-0.5
Moe Williams363414-0.6
Matt Schaub1043-0.6
Brandon Jackson1335-0.6
Trung Canidate10143-0.6
Stevan Ridley382816-0.6
LeGarrette Blount241410-0.7
Jay Cutler11134-0.8
Danny Woodhead16255-0.9
James Jackson11163-0.9
Leroy Hoard281510-0.9
Chris Brown24378-0.9
John Kuhn272212-1
Earnest Graham21238-1
Trent Richardson25179-1.1
Greg Jones19227-1.1
Maurice Smith15135-1.2
Daniel Thomas20167-1.2
Ciatrick Fason12-14-1.2
Duce Staley292210-1.3
Cory Schlesinger1395-1.3
Brandon Bolden1264-1.3
Isaac Redman1183-1.3
Najeh Davenport21118-1.3
Willie Parker375312-1.4
Pierre Thomas363913-1.4
Kurt Warner1083-1.4
Mike Bell251610-1.4
Chris Warren1112-1.5
Rashad Jennings253110-1.5
Ryan Torain11113-1.5
Reggie Bush382714-1.5
Zack Crockett616026-1.5
Cadillac Williams24248-1.5
Shonn Greene414815-1.5
Dominic Rhodes444618-1.5
Aaron Stecker14104-1.5
Olandis Gary22287-1.6
Jackie Battle25209-1.6
Reuben Droughns403215-1.6
Dee Brown13123-1.6
Doug Flutie11-43-1.7
Ben Tate22237-1.7
Stanley Pritchett1143-1.8
Tim Biakabutuka14-53-1.8
Michael Bush534721-1.9
Philip Rivers1082-2
Shane Vereen18175-2
Kerry Collins1163-2
Jermaine Fazande15184-2.2
Ray Lucas1103-2.2
Mewelde Moore16214-2.2
Antowain Smith707325-2.2
Keiland Williams12192-2.2
Travis Prentice17-66-2.3
Nick Goings1594-2.3
Mark Ingram322111-2.4
Michael Robinson1162-2.5
Tatum Bell1583-2.5
Peyton Hillis394413-2.6
Stephen Davis1089744-2.7
Steve Slaton24207-2.8
Michael Pittman453115-2.8
Chris Johnson453215-2.8
Errict Rhett1493-2.9
William Green21135-2.9
Jacquizz Rodgers10-51-2.9
Fred Beasley20226-2.9
William Floyd1574-3
Heath Evans1574-3
Ray Rice554719-3.1
Cecil Collins10-41-3.1
Jason Brookins19115-3.1
Warrick Dunn606818-3.2
Julius Jones364210-3.2
Artose Pinner22176-3.4
Maurice Jones-Drew927635-3.5
LaMont Jordan505517-3.5
Kevin Jones464715-3.6
Arlen Harris1834-3.7
Amos Zereoue2295-3.7
Frank Gore908431-3.8
Bernard Pierce17153-3.8
Terry Allen34219-3.9
Mike Anderson414912-4
Tashard Choice25226-4.1
Jason Snelling1945-4.1
Ron Dayne504716-4.2
Justin Forsett24145-4.4
Rock Cartwright2024-4.5
James Allen13111-4.6
Brad Hoover20203-4.6
Ladell Betts3379-5.1
Thomas Jones11711242-5.1
Michael Bennett2112-5.5
Chester Taylor594617-6
Mike Alstott745824-6.1
Jamal Lewis11411438-6.2
DeShaun Foster31186-6.7
Willis McGahee12311441-7
Steven Jackson1069935-7.2
Fred Taylor714920-7.4
Marcel Shipp3596-8.1
Edgerrin James15412956-9.2
Matt Forte776218-12.7

One of the first things that jumps out in this list is that quarterbacks are disproportionately represented at the top. Seven of the top 21 in touchdowns over expectation were quarterbacks. This falls in line with past research that indicated the effectiveness of quarterbacks in goal line situations. Jerome Bettis was +2.04 in touchdowns over expectation, consistent with his reputation. However, at the 1-yard line, Bettis was +2.81 touchdowns over expectation; that means he was negative overall from the 2-5 yard lines. Tomlinson, Alexander, and Holmes are on the top of the list which is no surprise given that they were the three most dominant fantasy players of their era.

The bottom of the list is interesting. The two worst players at scoring touchdowns were Edgerrin James and Matt Forte, which is in line with the conventional wisdom of neither being good short yardage backs. Somehow Edgerrin James managed to get the 2nd most carries inside of the 5 even though he was ineffective at it. Four of the bottom 5 will probably be known in the long run for being frustrating fantasy football players. The lack of goal line touchdowns explains why fantasy football owners loathed those running backs. Mike Alstott and Jamal Lewis were known as big guys with reputations of being reliable in the short yardage, but they finished in the bottom 10 of this measurement.

ReceiverRecTargetsYdsTDTD%exp TD over average
Vernon Davis1820461785%8
Bubba Franks2028462071.4%6.8
Owen Daniels1825411872%6
Jason Witten1930461963.3%5.2
Jimmy Graham2030471963.3%5.1
Dez Bryant1625481664%4.9
Brandon Stokley101141981.8%4.8
Jermaine Gresham1012211083.3%4.4
Dallas Clark2236442158.3%4
Emmanuel Sanders101228975%3.9
Mike Sellers1216351168.8%3.9
Heath Miller2031501858.1%3.8
Nate Burleson1015391066.7%3.7
Anthony Becht1724291562.5%3.7
Joe Jurevicius91334969.2%3.7
Wes Welker1829511655.2%3.6
Andre Johnson1931671754.8%3.5
Roddy White1832661753.1%3.5
Randall Cobb91334969.2%3.5
Isaac Bruce1526571453.8%3.5
Justin Griffith101226975%3.4
Dwayne Carswell91020880%3.4
Chad Johnson1834631750%3.3
Patrick Hape1114181071.4%3.2
Antonio Gates2749812551%3.1
Rob Gronkowski1219291263.2%3
Deion Branch91425964.3%2.9
Julius Thomas71026770%2.7
Ed McCaffrey81026770%2.7
Chad Lewis101427964.3%2.6
Jeremy Shockey1932351856.3%2.6
Ike Hilliard91534853.3%2.5
Kellen Winslow91528960%2.4
Donald Driver1018341055.6%2.4
Lee Evans1019371052.6%2.3
Darrell Jackson1321331257.1%2.3
Chris Baker101418964.3%2.2
Greg Jennings1018311055.6%2.2
Mike Vrabel81110872.7%2.2
Jermichael Finley101627956.3%2.1
Visanthe Shiancoe91519960%2.1
Donald Lee91324861.5%2.1
Brian Westbrook151732952.9%2
Rickey Dudley81318861.5%2
Terrell Owens2447782246.8%2
Christian Fauria91522960%1.9
Jeff Thomason71012770%1.9
Dan Campbell101111763.6%1.9
Rod Smith1118271055.6%1.8
Zach Miller81216758.3%1.6
Cris Carter1122321150%1.6
James Jones91328753.8%1.6
David Sloan71112763.6%1.6
T.J. Houshmandzadeh91728952.9%1.5
Hines Ward2140731845%1.5
Dave Moore91623956.3%1.4
Troy Brown51022550%1.3
Mark Campbell61119654.5%1.2
Aaron Hernandez1221261152.4%1.2
Desmond Clark1220251155%1.1
Jeremy Maclin61119654.5%1.1
Jason Dunn61117654.5%1.1
Jeff King6109660%1.1
Anthony Fasano1325331248%1.1
Eddie Royal81622850%1.1
Anquan Boldin1932631443.8%1
Larry Fitzgerald2447602246.8%1
Jerry Porter61220650%1
Marvin Harrison2248692143.8%1
Jimmy Smith71423750%1
Todd Heap1019231052.6%0.9
Keyshawn Johnson1123351147.8%0.9
Earl Bennett51018550%0.9
Vincent Jackson92031945%0.8
Richie Anderson61016550%0.8
Wayne Chrebet51121545.5%0.8
Tony Scheffler81618850%0.7
Santana Moss1124411041.7%0.7
Joey Galloway61324646.2%0.7
Mike Williams1021291047.6%0.7
Kevin Boss71423750%0.7
Eric Decker1020261050%0.7
Jermaine Wiggins101724847.1%0.7
Donte' Stallworth51019550%0.7
Kyle Brady91722847.1%0.7
Reggie Bush71017550%0.7
Alex Smith71416750%0.6
Ben Watson91926947.4%0.6
Marcus Pollard81621850%0.5
Marques Colston1736541644.4%0.5
Arian Foster61119545.5%0.5
Randy McMichael71519746.7%0.4
Steve Heiden81616850%0.3
Derrick Mason81930842.1%0.3
Alge Crumpler1124311145.8%0.3
Jordy Nelson1122281045.5%0.2
Fred Davis5106550%0.2
Ahman Green61121545.5%0.2
Bo Scaife71320646.2%0.2
Torry Holt1328401242.9%0.2
Jamaal Charles101732741.2%0.1
Lorenzo Neal91519746.7%0.1
Marcus Robinson71615743.8%0.1
Justin McCareins51115545.5%0.1
Jim Kleinsasser51114545.5%0.1
Steve Johnson71625743.8%0.1
Jason Avant71218541.7%0
Marty Booker51017440%0
Daniel Graham81716847.1%0
Kevin Curtis41012440%-0.1
Michael Crabtree71215541.7%-0.2
Malcom Floyd61623637.5%-0.3
Frank Gore41012440%-0.3
Greg Olsen1330361343.3%-0.3
LeSean McCoy10127541.7%-0.3
Itula Mili8179847.1%-0.3
Robert Royal41015440%-0.3
Dustin Keller81816844.4%-0.3
Mike Wallace51119436.4%-0.3
Dwayne Bowe1226321142.3%-0.4
Mike Tolbert5109440%-0.4
Nate Washington41013440%-0.4
Joel Dreessen61312646.2%-0.4
Davone Bess4109440%-0.4
Denarius Moore41017440%-0.4
Brandon LaFell61110436.4%-0.5
Jordan Cameron41013440%-0.5
Julian Edelman41114436.4%-0.5
Brandon Pettigrew4109440%-0.6
Danny Amendola81721741.2%-0.7
Chris Cooley81523640%-0.7
Steve Smith1126331038.5%-0.8
Lance Moore81927736.8%-0.8
Brandon Lloyd41115436.4%-0.8
Santonio Holmes41218433.3%-0.8
Brian Finneran61420535.7%-0.9
Roy Williams71823738.9%-0.9
Jerricho Cotchery51414535.7%-1
Keenan McCardell51412535.7%-1.1
Jerramy Stevens71821738.9%-1.1
L.J. Smith1024261041.7%-1.2
Peerless Price61612637.5%-1.2
Calvin Johnson1433371442.4%-1.3
Randy Moss2657692340.4%-1.3
Brian Hartline51518533.3%-1.3
Martellus Bennett4129433.3%-1.4
Matt Jones31011330%-1.5
Vonta Leach6117436.4%-1.5
Antonio Brown51211433.3%-1.5
Laveranues Coles92220836.4%-1.5
Jared Cook4129433.3%-1.6
Miles Austin92533936%-1.6
Jerry Rice71620531.3%-1.7
Delanie Walker6116327.3%-1.8
Braylon Edwards82432833.3%-1.8
Joe Horn81927631.6%-1.8
Cecil Shorts41518426.7%-1.9
Amani Toomer61714635.3%-1.9
Drew Bennett51419428.6%-2
DeSean Jackson41214325%-2
Charles Clay4117327.3%-2
A.J. Green61819633.3%-2.1
Mike Sims-Walker3127325%-2.2
Wesley Walls51512533.3%-2.2
Brent Celek102523936%-2.2
Mikhael Ricks3125325%-2.2
Bryant Johnson61916631.6%-2.3
Stephen Alexander61712635.3%-2.3
Andrew Quarless3129325%-2.3
Muhsin Muhammad1129331034.5%-2.6
Plaxico Burress1235431234.3%-2.8
Hakeem Nicks92126628.6%-2.8
Ashley Lelie2129216.7%-3
Freddie Jones3145321.4%-3
Sidney Rice3149321.4%-3
Shannon Sharpe6158426.7%-3.1
Tony Gonzalez2864642640.6%-3.2
Pierre Garcon41510320%-3.3
Julio Jones31411214.3%-3.7
Antonio Bryant010000%-3.8
Eric Moulds92822828.6%-3.8
Demaryius Thomas72422729.2%-3.8
Jabar Gaffney31611212.5%-4.5
Chris Chambers93332927.3%-4.7
Marcedes Lewis1032151031.3%-4.9
Brandon Marshall1138401128.9%-5.3
Reggie Wayne1750471428%-7.4

The first thing you will notice about this list is that tight ends dominate the top. The top 5 in touchdowns over expectation are tight ends. Vernon Davis leads with an absurd 8 touchdowns over expectation. He did it by scoring a TD on 85% of his targets inside the 5 yard line. Even though tight ends dominate the top of the list, the all-time leader in scores by a tight end, Tony Gonzalez, finished 11th worst by this measure. Despite that, Gonzalez leads all receivers with 26 total touchdowns inside the 5 yard line from 1998-2014. And, of course, finishing with a zillion targets is in fact a very good indicator that Gonzalez was great in the red zone. As always, you should be very cautious when putting targets in the denominator of any formula.

There seems to be little correlation between touchdowns over expectation and wide receiver ability. The worst player by this measurement was Reggie Wayne. Noted redzone weapon, Randy Moss, had a negative touchdowns over expectation. The #2 receiver in touchdowns over expectation is the inconsistent Brandon Stokley. Again, this may be a reflection of what happens when using targets instead of perhaps, pass routes run, in the denominator.

Finally, let’s look at the touchdown rate from each yardline inside the five, broken down by run or pass:

munir chart

At the 1 yard line, rushing attempts score at a higher rate than pass attempts. But, on each yard line afterwards, passes score at a higher rate. NFL teams ran more than they passed on each yard line from the 1-3. At the 4 yard line, passing takes a slight lead. Teams could possibly score more points if they started throwing more at the goal line, although anecdotally, it feels like that switch may have already begun.

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