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Bryan Frye, owner and operator of the great site http://www.thegridfe.com/, is back for another guest post. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.


Last week, I posted a quarterback performance metric that accounts for both passing and rushing. The base stat, Total Adjusted Yards per Play, is easy to comprehend and easy to figure out yourself with basic box score data. My original post only included performance that occurred during or after the 2002 season, because I don’t have spike and kneel data going back further than that. For the sake of consistency, I wanted to maintain the same parameters when calculating career values.

Before we get into the tables, I’d like to first briefly talk about what these numbers are and what they are not.

The formula, in case you forgot:

[Yards + Touchdowns*20 – Interceptions*45 – Fumbles*25 + First Downs*9] / Plays, where

Yards = pass yards + rush yards – sack yards + yards lost on kneels

Touchdowns = pass touchdowns + rush touchdowns

First Downs = (pass first downs + rush first downs) – touchdowns

Plays = pass attempts + sacks + rush attempts – spikes – kneels

The TAY/P stat (and the values based on it) IS a simple, numeric representation of quarterback performance, both passing and rushing. The formula knows only the numbers that are plugged into it. In this regard, it is like every other quarterback rating on the planet – even the most advanced ones.

The TAY/P stat IS NOT a measure of overall quarterback talent or ability. It doesn’t account for strength of schedule, strength of teammates, strength of coaching, or the effects of weather. It doesn’t account for intangibles, whatever you believe those to be (there is no leadership, courage, or moxie component). [1]If you want to add a dash of Winnersauce to the formula, multiply it by win percentage or something. I don’t know. Keep reworking the formula until it spits out the outcome you were hoping for.

I hope that cleared some things up for both regular readers and the stat-dubious visitors. Let’s look at some numbers.

The first table contains the raw data that went into the ratings. [2]Only players with 900 action plays are included. This number is somewhat arbitrary, but it is based on three seasons of 300 plays apiece. If you want to see number for guys with fewer plays, just ask. If you are interested in reading it, here’s how: Aaron Brooks completed 1248 of 2211 passes for 14915 yards, 88 touchdowns, and 64 interceptions. He took 170 sacks, on which he lost 1030 yards. He spiked the ball 11 times and gained 719 passing first downs. He had 241 carries for 1006 yards and 10 touchdowns. He had 47 fumbles. He took 31 kneels, losing 29 yards in the process. He picked up 79 first downs on the ground. All 76 players are listed in the table, which is fully sortable and searchable.

PlayerCmpAttYdsTDIntSkSkYdsSpk1dPRshYdsTDFmbKnlKnlY1dR
Aaron Brooks124822111491588641701030117192411006104731-2979
Aaron Rodgers22863475285782265726016031713223761831205482-88140
Alex Smith190131492085812276280162113991337144665677-7483
Andrew Luck106218131295786431006349627189905122948-4065
Andy Dalton130121111475899661206954689205624111957-5359
Ben Roethlisberger3157495439057251131419272644192237811621578131-129109
Blaine Gabbert417784439523247451812067619102116-1614
Brad Johnson1202194612675745411068475969721513128-3118
Brandon Weeden462825541926285637522644515401311-1013
Brett Favre2989472833211221164203141417164717628526564-6628
Brian Griese9991554108916361111770952210917312242-4117
Byron Leftwich9301605105325842924523507137415103526-2433
Cam Newton114419231442682541521140106654672571333035-41192
Carson Palmer30714906353652241552531782281745248400760105-10653
Chad Henne115919541293158631499381062311636231721-3029
Chad Pennington1620244617664100641609531390817845474151-5156
Christian Ponder63210576658383695501035012663972021-2438
Colin Kaepernick67111178415502110768703972611576102632-3376
Colt McCoy5018315458252376447227211542321824-2533
Daunte Culpepper1484235917604102772311329128373511760227420-19134
David Carr13532267144526571267156414706305132897136-4194
David Garrard14062281160038954179111587953801746174461-67157
Derek Anderson82515379907585576530114939122752927-2331
Donovan McNabb24494096297301808529818871813644012035217274-72145
Drew Bledsoe1295219914954856820513571773511521185526-2730
Drew Brees492274315581239519429821163427383586721384154-15188
Eli Manning33085609397552591852801980131886243462587118-12944
Geno Smith4668105571253471490226113160471611-941
Gus Frerotte612111673214547814776348689112424-3011
J.P. Losman56495262713334108789928510549033513-1239
Jake Delhomme1699285620454123961621225994716425656168-7233
Jake Plummer12282126146038967105657870822795393453-5573
Jason Campbell15192518167718760170109616827240120465252-5982
Jay Cutler23903871277491831302561627161339324142587596-9298
Jay Fiedler467809545533305738012747524662011-1129
Jeff Garcia13682236151778750116574157162791241153945-46105
Joe Flacco2213365725531148902411709101239267631106298-10986
Joey Harrington142425381469379851247701270914240202533-3427
Jon Kitna1706273118977108982191356993417362475847-5342
Josh Freeman116420201372480671116831164819792243832-4682
Josh McCown97816641103361591481001552017783375419-2354
Kerry Collins18713302217221089215710148105714518225844-4115
Kurt Warner17272667196931107517311201994910411727940-4216
Kyle Boller8611519893148541238022045117657224235-3742
Kyle Orton1613271218037101691651016887612629643546-5631
Marc Bulger196931712281412293254186319110711830084236-4527
Mark Brunell86414959551592998673447512942112824-2232
Mark Sanchez1226217614510828014996912719159429135038-4447
Matt Cassel1397236915727967018210052176624793154755-5659
Matt Hasselbeck28774724327801941403041897111636299106585794-9777
Matt Ryan250839162816618191188124020141424870053395-11263
Matt Schaub204031912431113086175119921118218335244468-7640
Matthew Stafford1848309921714131851611096171075161485113940-4244
Michael Vick17173038213081298428517131710108225721359076-80324
Nick Foles550893675346175737833068433141618-2527
Patrick Ramsey51191359303530795204278478922817-189
Peyton Manning457068235327341915320212701427423032651155180-18544
Philip Rivers30254678366552521222851716111827286512378113-12161
Quincy Carter4527845265273068385523910736821710-932
Rex Grossman86315621023256609269894958110643240-5118
Rich Gannon584911648735165832133036120031413-1112
Robert Griffin6791063809740231017184375244148083214-1573
Russell Wilson79412529950722611971744613081877113144-50106
Ryan Fitzpatrick17522911192731231011861015139413451599115460-59111
Ryan Tannehill10291662112526342139970757914576042839-3446
Sam Bradford10321760110655938120822105539724722737-3719
Shaun Hill7361183803849308251593878232642423-2326
Steve McNair140022561526988589862716801230996104857-5581
Tarvaris Jackson636106772263935895401233416364462439-3944
Tom Brady428667525040937413132320681325234347801484166-170151
Tommy Maddox596102769854139814703342499601820-188
Tony Romo2743421033270242110242163711160323460756499-11144
Trent Edwards563929603326306948232897833031413-1628
Trent Green154724671918810674147940792914657033241-3641
Vince Young7551304896446518344964452821459124041-4585
Vinny Testaverde630105771743437704405334539632116-166

As before, the above table is merely a reference point. It is offered without further comment.

The second table represents the adjusted numbers for the 76 qualifying players since 2002. It is sorted by value above replacement, but you can search and sort to your heart’s content. Read the table thus: Peyton Manning turned 7134 plays into 52,453 yards, 430 touchdowns, and 2786 first downs. This comes to 73997 total adjusted yards at 10.37 per play. For his career, he has been 2.56 TAY/P above average and produced 18291 TAY of relative value. He has been 4.13 TAY/P above replacement and produced 29432 TAY of replacement value.

RkPlayerPlyTydsTTD1dTAYTAY/PTAY/P Ov AvgValTAY/P Ov RepREPL
1Peyton Manning71345245343027867399710.372.56182914.1329432
2Drew Brees7899545194082826736119.321.45114863.0323911
3Tom Brady7330492913882674696309.51.67122673.2423740
4Ben Roethlisberger5576376222662031509829.141.1966392.7815507
5Philip Rivers5125355722551888479299.351.3468852.9515094
6Aaron Rodgers40122889424614624084310.182.0983733.7114867
7Tony Romo4576323512471647433419.471.4666913.0614021
8Donovan McNabb4703299502011509401178.530.8740722.411281
9Carson Palmer5274340892311798443378.410.5327792.111091
10Matt Ryan4237277381861477381579.010.8837142.510602
11Eli Manning6001383662641930481408.020.095601.6810076
12Brett Favre5026321482231675406718.090.482400210055
13Matt Hasselbeck5222320452021713419598.040.3317181.879766
14Matt Schaub3460235401341222310428.970.9934272.598950
15Trent Green271218854109970246539.091.6243933.118445
16Michael Vick4052253961641334331768.190.416091.967923
17Jay Cutler4339276391911437349488.050.031401.647101
18Chad Pennington272017216107964231648.520.9225132.446643
19Marc Bulger3488212961301134276977.940.3712801.886563
20Joe Flacco4057245621581325326258.04-0.07-3011.556284
21Steve McNair25111569398882208998.320.8822012.375941
22Matthew Stafford3364211451421119279788.320.134281.775938
23David Garrard277116701106952229058.270.4913642.055672
24Jeff Garcia257115890102821211768.240.717922.215669
25Kurt Warner288518732112965232998.080.411601.945587
26Daunte Culpepper290918054124971228427.850.339611.835338
27Cam Newton249715898115857216968.690.4511152.15231
28Jake Delhomme310519557128980239407.710.13101.625036
29Jake Plummer23971495498781191968.010.5412852.034867
30Kerry Collins3552209311101072261997.38-0.22-7711.34623
31Russell Wilson16311116083567152319.341.0517192.714422
32Andrew Luck20451326898692179148.760.489782.134365
33Jason Campbell28601693893909221427.74-0.15-4281.434086
34Kyle Orton294917373105907227117.7-0.24-7161.353969
35Jon Kitna306718298115976224877.33-0.23-6941.293942
36Aaron Brooks25801492098798191257.41-0.03-891.453753
37Andy Dalton237514740110748192378.1-0.14-3361.513579
38Alex Smith3676207571281074270117.35-0.64-23540.963519
39Ryan Fitzpatrick3369199161341052249637.41-0.67-22740.943174
40Colin Kaepernick1453933760473126598.710.426162.083024
41Brad Johnson21181223775614153837.26-0.15-3261.332816
42Josh Freeman22851400984730175387.68-0.43-9771.192726
43Drew Bledsoe24761383593765173086.99-0.44-11001.042582
44Rich Gannon101463773831585608.441.0410522.522553
45Byron Leftwich18051051968540133627.4-0.12-2211.382496
46Matt Cassel272215709101825199207.32-0.7-18960.912467
47Robert Griffin1390887448448115998.340.11341.752427
48Nick Foles1013673150333911390.727342.382410
49Mark Brunell1694932160507125397.4-0.08-1281.422405
50Ryan Tannehill19001107667625148487.81-0.46-8831.192263
51Brian Griese17231033564539125957.31-0.25-4341.262172
52Vince Young16221001958530121327.48-0.26-4291.282083
53Shaun Hill1315787253413102227.77-0.25-3261.361784
54Chad Henne21881238561652156647.16-0.92-20070.71527
55Sam Bradford19301052761572139617.23-0.9-17460.721395
56Derek Anderson1666962763524118367.1-0.74-12260.831386
57Tommy Maddox113466294135080257.08-0.26-2911.211373
58Mark Sanchez24341401495766171037.03-1.11-26900.521269
59Jay Fiedler92953323930366387.15-0.27-2491.211128
60Vinny Testaverde115968463734081237.01-0.55-6320.971119
61Tarvaris Jackson126873694537890917.17-0.74-9410.841065
62Rex Grossman1686969160513114686.8-0.97-16430.58979
63Joey Harrington27591435979736174026.31-1.17-32310.32895
64Trent Edwards106058972931773696.95-0.88-9380.68724
65Quincy Carter94452572927162406.61-0.7-6600.76720
66David Carr27891425774800173016.2-1.29-36090.21573
67Josh McCown19651088868574127976.51-1.29-25280.27537
68Gus Frerotte123569654635979876.47-1.08-13380.43527
69Colt McCoy99654592730570167.04-1.11-11100.52515
70Christian Ponder125768204538886876.91-1.3-16370.34428
71Patrick Ramsey101855173728764576.34-1.1-11200.39395
72Brandon Weeden91352082627764027.01-1.22-11160.42388
73Geno Smith99956943230268346.84-1.43-14260.23226
74J.P. Losman114359843632468916.03-1.53-1754-0.02-25
75Kyle Boller1763873850493102455.81-1.77-3120-0.25-447
76Blaine Gabbert91740842322047125.14-3.05-2800-1.42-1298

Some brief commentary…

  • Statistically, Drew Brees and Tom Brady have been much closer than most people probably realize. [3]I can’t imagine why people think Brady is so much better. Brady’s stats are superior on a per play basis, and Brees’ advantage in volume is the only thing giving him more replacement value. Brady still leads Brees in value over average, despite seeing over 500 fewer action plays.
  • Once again, incorporating first downs pads Peyton Manning’s numbers significantly. Removing those from the equation moves Rodgers to the top of the TAY/P charts.
  • Only three below-replacement-level quarterbacks were allowed to be involved in more than 900 plays. Kyle Boller was given nearly 1800 chances to prove his mettle.
  • Neglecting stats accrued prior to 2002 really helps Rich Gannon in this exercise. What a weird career arc.
  • On the other hand, neglecting pre-2002 stats really hurts Kurt Warner. Showing up between Colin Kaepernick and Michael Vick isn’t something you want from a pocket passer. [4]In the TAY/P Ov Avg column, that is.
  • When you sort by TAY/P Over Average, Trent Green once again pops up in esteemed company. He’s no Hall of Famer, but he deserves a little more recognition than he gets (and probably a little less than I give him).

I could go on, but I’m more interested in what you have to say.

References

References
1 If you want to add a dash of Winnersauce to the formula, multiply it by win percentage or something. I don’t know. Keep reworking the formula until it spits out the outcome you were hoping for.
2 Only players with 900 action plays are included. This number is somewhat arbitrary, but it is based on three seasons of 300 plays apiece. If you want to see number for guys with fewer plays, just ask.
3 I can’t imagine why people think Brady is so much better.
4 In the TAY/P Ov Avg column, that is.
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