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Four weeks in, the first edition of college football SRS standings

by Chase Stuart on September 23, 2012

in College, Uncategorized

It’s still too early to really put a lot of faith into the SRS ratings, but hey, we’ve got enough games to at least give it the old college try. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the game scores for all of college football. As a reminder, here’s the system.

1) For each game not played at a neutral site, 3 points are given to the road team. After that adjustment, all wins and losses of between 7 and 24 points are scored as however many points the team won by. So a 24-10 road win goes down as +17 for the road team, -17 for the home team.

2) With one exception, wins of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7-point wins and losses of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7 point losses. So three 4-point home wins (+3 before the adjustments, +21 after) is worth more than two 10 point road wins and a 1 point home loss (+19 before, +19 after). The one exception is that road losses of 3 or fewer and home wins of 3 or fewer are graded as 0 point ties. So a 21-20 home victory goes down as a tie for both teams.

3) Wins/Losses of more than 24 points are scored as the average between the actual number and 24. This is to avoid giving undue credit to teams that run up the score. So a 67-point home win goes down as a 44-point win.

After four weeks, what are the results?

Rk
Team
Conf
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
REC
1TexasB1232738.465.43-0
2AlabamaSEC43034644-0
3Texas TechB12331.730.662.33-0
4GeorgiaSEC426.134.660.84-0
5OregonP1242633.859.84-0
6South CarolinaSEC421.636.958.64-0
7StanfordP1231246.458.43-0
8Arizona StP12420.937.658.43-1
9Texas A&MSEC322.534.957.42-1
10FloridaSEC416.640.657.24-0
11PurdueB10320.336.156.42-1
12Notre DameIND414.840.955.64-0
13Florida StACC431.823.755.54-0
14Kansas StB12420.135.255.44-0
15LSUSEC423.931.355.24-0
16West VirginiaB12320.734.154.73-0
17OklahomaB12316.837.153.92-1
18Oregon StP122548.453.42-0
19UCLAP12412.339.7523-1
20BaylorB12319.332.651.93-0
21Southern CalP12412.83951.83-1
22Oklahoma StB12321.829.451.22-1
23NebraskaB10421.62849.63-1
24ClemsonACC411.937.549.43-1
25San José StWAC412.636.649.23-1
26MissouriSEC40.448.348.72-2
27Ohio StateB10415.932.248.14-0
28ArizonaP1247.140.647.83-1
29Louisiana TechWAC317.829.947.83-0
30Iowa StB12315.53146.53-0
31MississippiSEC4937.446.43-1
32Fresno StMWC41234.346.32-2
33Utah StWAC41234.146.13-1
34Ohio U.MAC417.927.945.84-0
35LouisvilleBgE414.130.8454-0
36Central FloridaCUS310.83444.82-1
37WisconsinB1043.841.144.83-1
38NorthwesternB10411.832.744.54-0
39TCUB12324.220.244.43-0
40Michigan StB1047.635.943.63-1
41TulsaCUS412.930.543.43-1
42Georgia TechACC414.528.643.12-2
43Miami FLACC43.939.243.13-1
44North CarolinaACC413.129.943.12-2
45MinnesotaB10412.530.442.94-0
46Mississippi StSEC418.823.342.14-0
47North Carolina StACC410.930.941.83-1
48NevadaMWC411.83041.73-1
49Brigham YoungIND411.929.741.62-2
50MichiganB1042.538.941.42-2
51CincinnatiBgE21724.241.22-0
52TennesseeSEC410.430.240.63-1
53Boise StMWC35.734.440.12-1
54VanderbiltSEC4-1.941.739.81-3
55Western KentuckySun47.831.939.63-1
56Louisiana-MonroeSun3-0.339.639.31-2
57AuburnSEC4-7.346.539.21-3
58DukeACC49.528.938.43-1
59UtahP124-0.438.638.22-2
60WashingtonP1232.535.638.12-1
61Penn StateB1044.833.3382-2
62CaliforniaP124-441.937.91-3
63San Diego StMWC45.332.537.82-2
64RutgersBgE415.821.937.74-0
65Virginia TechACC410.527.137.63-1
66ToledoMAC4433.237.23-1
67Boston CollegeACC32.334.937.21-2
68Western MichiganMAC4334.237.22-2
69KentuckySEC4-6.14336.91-3
70Louisiana-LafayetteSun35.231.336.52-1
71MarylandACC4-0.536.636.12-2
72MarshallCUS4-0.936.535.62-2
73ConnecticutBgE45.53035.52-2
74New MexicoMWC4-338.535.52-2
75SyracuseBgE4-4.840.135.41-3
76Ball StMAC4034.534.53-1
77UTEPCUS4-8.342.634.41-3
78TempleBgE3232.234.21-2
79Northern IllinoisMAC47.926.334.23-1
80IllinoisB104-1.835.733.92-2
81IowaB1040.333.633.82-2
82TroySun4-0.53433.52-2
83WyomingMWC4-639.233.21-3
84SMUCUS3-9.242.333.11-2
85South FloridaBgE41.331.432.62-2
86Middle Tennessee StSun37.724.532.22-1
87Texas St-San MarcosWAC3-3.53531.52-1
88PittsburghBgE42.528.931.42-2
89East CarolinaCUS4-3.935.131.22-2
90Arkansas StSun40.131.131.22-2
91Air ForceMWC35.825.1311-2
92VirginiaACC4-6.137.130.92-2
93IndianaB1031119.930.92-1
94RiceCUS4-10.541.330.81-3
95Kent StMAC3327.230.22-1
96KansasB124-534.929.91-3
97North TexasSun4-5.334.729.51-3
98Florida Int'lSun4-9.338.3291-3
99Alabama-BirminghamCUS3-18.746.728.10-3
100ArkansasSEC4-9.136.927.71-3
101Bowling GreenMAC4-10.337.627.41-3
102Colorado StMWC4-10.838.127.41-3
103Florida AtlanticSun4-14.941.927.11-3
104UNLVMWC4-6.331.825.51-3
105New Mexico StWAC4-6.131.525.41-3
106HoustonCUS3-18.743.725.10-3
107AkronMAC4-327.924.91-3
108Wake ForestACC4-6.931.724.93-1
109Eastern MichiganMAC4-17.642.524.90-4
110Hawai`iMWC3-9.834.224.41-2
111Washington StP124-4.327.823.62-2
112Central MichiganMAC3-5.228.323.22-1
113BuffaloMAC3-6.329.3231-2
114NavyIND3-8.830.922.11-2
115Southern MissCUS3-2040.120.10-3
116South AlabamaSun4-9.528.218.71-3
117IdahoWAC4-17.335.718.40-4
118Miami OHMAC4-9.127.218.12-2
119ArmyIND3-14.732.317.60-3
120MemphisCUS4-1431.417.40-4
121ColoradoP124-9.526.917.41-3
122TulaneCUS3-25.342.517.20-3
123Texas-San AntonioWAC419.4-2.516.84-0
124MassachusettsMAC4-26.431.55.10-4

As you can tell, it will still take awhile for the results to really start to have meaning. I don’t think it’s too early to make one comment: Alabama may not look so great in the computers, especially early on. Michigan is now 50th in the SRS while Arkansas is 100th; combined, the two schools have just three wins, over Massachusetts, Air Force, and Jacksonville State. In the event Alabama needs some help from the computers, it’s possible they may not get it. Then again, the computers loved Oklahoma State over Alabama last year, too.

Texas, Texas Tech and Georgia come up high mostly for their blowout wins. We’ll learn more about those teams as their schedule gets harder. Georgia’s wins over Missouri and Vanderbilt sound better than they look, at least according to the computers right now. Meanwhile, Texas’ toughest opponent was Ole Miss (and Tech’s toughest opponent was New Mexico).

The toughest schedule so far goes to Oregon State. The Beavers have played just two games, but beat Wisconsin and UCLA.

So why is Texas #1? One reason is because Mississippi looks really good in this system. Now, why would the Rebels look good? They killed Tulane on the road and they won handily against Central Arkansas and UTEP. But those teams aren’t good, you say? Well UTEP only lost by 11 in Wisconsin, beat New Mexico State and kept it at least respectable against Oklahoma. Central Arkansas beat Murray State by 20, a pretty decent FCS team. They won all their games except for the one against Ole Miss.

By extension, Texas romping Mississippi makes the SRS think Texas is really, really good. The Longhorns also beat New Mexico 45-0. Well, UNM looks at least respectable so far, winning two of its other three games; its other loss was to Texas Tech, the #3 team in the SRS.

So until the bad teams start losing more and the good teams start winning more, perception won’t match up with reality. I don’t think it will look all that great next week, either, but in two weeks from now, we should be able to see some real trends emerge.

The table below lists all of the week 4 results, in descending order of impressiveness (based on SRS score). Here’s how to read the table below. Oregon scored 49 points against Arizona and allowed 0. Oregon was at home and won. Oregon won by 49 points, and their Margin of Victory for SRS purposes was 35 (the average of 24 and 46). Oregon is in the Pac-12, as is Arizona. Oregon’s opponent has an SRS score of 47.8 (after the game), so Oregon’s SOS score for the game is 47.8. Oregon’s SRS score for the game is therefore 82.8 (35 + 47.8).

Team
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Diff
MOV
CON
CON
SOS
SRS
Oregon49Arizona0HW4935P12P1247.882.8
Georgia48Vanderbilt3HW4533SECSEC39.872.8
South Carolina31Missouri10HW2118SECSEC48.766.7
Florida38Kentucky0HW3829.5SECSEC36.966.4
Arizona St37Utah7HW3025.5P12P1238.263.7
Oregon St27UCLA20RW710P12P125262
Kansas St24Oklahoma19RW58B12B1253.961.9
Louisiana Tech52Illinois24RW2827.5WACB1033.961.4
Nevada69Hawai`i24RW4536MWCMWC24.460.4
Florida St49Clemson37HW129ACCACC49.458.4
North Carolina St52The Citadel14HW3829.5ACCfcs28.758.2
Virginia Tech37Bowling Green0HW3729ACCMAC27.456.4
Alabama40Florida Atlantic7HW3327SECSun27.154.1
Southern Cal27California9HW1815P12P1237.952.9
Texas A&M70South Carolina St14HW5638.5SECfcs14.352.8
Miami FL42Georgia Tech36RW69ACCACC43.152.1
Nebraska73Idaho St7HW6643.5B10fcs8.552
Mississippi39Tulane0RW3933SECCUS17.250.2
North Carolina27East Carolina6HW2118ACCCUS31.249.2
Michigan6Notre Dame13RL-7-7B10IND55.648.6
Notre Dame13Michigan6HW77INDB1041.448.4
Auburn10LSU12HL-2-7SECSEC55.248.2
TCU27Virginia7HW2017B12ACC30.947.9
Maryland21West Virginia31RL-10-7ACCB1254.747.7
Oklahoma19Kansas St24HL-5-8B12B1255.447.4
Baylor47Louisiana-Monroe42RW58B12Sun39.347.3
Clemson37Florida St49RL-12-9ACCACC55.546.5
Tulsa27Fresno St26HW10CUSMWC46.346.3
LSU12Auburn10RW27SECSEC39.246.2
San José St38San Diego St34RW47WACMWC37.844.8
Northwestern38South Dakota7HW3126B10fcs18.544.5
Louisiana-Monroe42Baylor47HL-5-8SunB1251.943.9
UCLA20Oregon St27HL-7-10P12P1253.443.4
Fresno St26Tulsa27RL-10MWCCUS43.443.4
West Virginia31Maryland21HW107B12ACC36.143.1
Tennessee47Akron26HW2118SECMAC24.942.9
Western Michigan30Connecticut24HW67MACBgE35.542.5
Minnesota17Syracuse10HW77B10BgE35.442.4
Wisconsin37UTEP26HW118B10CUS34.442.4
Utah St31Colorado St19RW1215WACMWC27.442.4
Penn State24Temple13HW118B10BgE34.242.2
San Diego St34San José St38HL-4-7MWCWAC49.242.2
Western Kentucky42Southern Miss17HW2522SunCUS20.142.1
Kent St23Buffalo7RW1619MACMAC2342
Boise St7Brigham Young6HW10MWCIND41.641.6
New Mexico27New Mexico St14RW1316MWCWAC25.441.4
Central Michigan32Iowa31RW17MACB1033.840.8
Missouri10South Carolina31RL-21-18SECSEC58.640.6
Ohio U.44Norfolk St10HW3427.5MACfcs12.740.2
Brigham Young6Boise St7RL-10INDMWC40.140.1
Rutgers35Arkansas26RW912BgESEC27.739.7
Ball St31South Florida27HW47MACBgE32.639.6
Troy14North Texas7RW710SunSun29.539.5
Ohio State29Alabama-Birmingham15HW1411B10CUS28.139.1
Louisville28Florida Int'l21RW710BgESun2939
Duke38Memphis14HW2421ACCCUS17.438.4
Michigan St23Eastern Michigan7HW1613B10MAC24.937.9
Marshall54Rice51RW37CUSCUS30.837.8
Colorado35Washington St24RW1114P12P1223.637.6
Alabama-Birmingham15Ohio State29RL-14-11CUSB1048.137.1
Florida Atlantic7Alabama40RL-33-27SunSEC6437
Northern Illinois30Kansas23HW77MACB1229.936.9
UTEP26Wisconsin37RL-11-8CUSB1044.836.8
California9Southern Cal27RL-18-15P12P1251.836.8
Arkansas St56Alcorn St0HW5638.5Sunfcs-2.336.2
Syracuse10Minnesota17RL-7-7BgEB1042.935.9
Mississippi St30South Alabama10HW2017SECSun18.735.7
Florida Int'l21Louisville28HL-7-10SunBgE4535
Georgia Tech36Miami FL42HL-6-9ACCACC43.134.1
Utah7Arizona St37RL-30-25.5P12P1258.432.9
Pittsburgh55Gardner-Webb10HW4533BgEfcs-0.232.8
Toledo38Coastal Carolina28HW107MACfcs24.631.6
Colorado St19Utah St31HL-12-15MWCWAC46.131.1
UNLV38Air Force35HW30MWCMWC3131
Eastern Michigan7Michigan St23RL-16-13MACB1043.630.6
Connecticut24Western Michigan30RL-6-7BgEMAC37.230.2
Temple13Penn State24RL-11-8BgEB103830
Navy41VMI3HW3829.5INDfcs-0.928.6
Rice51Marshall54HL-3-7CUSCUS35.628.6
Vanderbilt3Georgia48RL-45-33SECSEC60.827.8
Kentucky0Florida38RL-38-29.5SECSEC57.227.7
South Florida27Ball St31RL-4-7BgEMAC34.527.5
Virginia7TCU27RL-20-17ACCB1244.427.4
Kansas23Northern Illinois30RL-7-7B12MAC34.227.2
Wake Forest49Army37HW129ACCIND17.626.6
Idaho37Wyoming40HL-3-7WACMWC33.226.2
Arkansas26Rutgers35HL-9-12SECBgE37.725.7
Air Force35UNLV38RL-30MWCMWC25.525.5
Wyoming40Idaho37RW37MWCWAC18.425.4
South Alabama10Mississippi St30RL-20-17SunSEC42.125.1
East Carolina6North Carolina27RL-21-18CUSACC43.125.1
Arizona0Oregon49RL-49-35P12P1259.824.8
Texas St-San Marcos41Stephen F. Austin37HW47WACfcs17.624.6
North Texas7Troy14HL-7-10SunSun33.523.5
Akron26Tennessee47RL-21-18MACSEC40.622.6
Texas-San Antonio56NW Oklahoma St3HW5337WACfcs-16.220.8
Illinois24Louisiana Tech52HL-28-27.5B10WAC47.820.3
New Mexico St14New Mexico27HL-13-16WACMWC35.519.5
Southern Miss17Western Kentucky42RL-25-22CUSSun39.617.6
Memphis14Duke38RL-24-21CUSACC38.417.4
Iowa31Central Michigan32HL-1-7B10MAC23.216.2
Army37Wake Forest49RL-12-9INDACC24.915.9
Tulane0Mississippi39HL-39-33CUSSEC46.413.4
Miami OH27Massachusetts16HW118MACMAC5.113.1
Buffalo7Kent St23HL-16-19MACMAC30.211.2
Massachusetts16Miami OH27RL-11-8MACMAC18.110.1
Bowling Green0Virginia Tech37RL-37-29MACACC37.68.6
Hawai`i24Nevada69HL-45-36MWCMWC41.75.7
Washington St24Colorado35HL-11-14P12P1217.43.4

Sorry, Mike Leach.

The SEC East has been the rich step-brother of college football the past couple of years, languishing in the shadows of the uber dominant SEC West. But three of the top four performances this weekend came out of the SEC East, a sign that perhaps the conference championship game this year won’t just be an afterthought.

{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }

Chase Stuart September 24, 2012 at 11:56 am

For Chris Brown….

Purdue has been very consistent this year; they blew out two bad teams and played to an SRS draw (road loss of 3) against a very good team (at least so far):

Date      tm1     pf  tm2               pf  h/r  w/l diff  MOV   CON  CON   SOS   SRS
1-Sep-12  Purdue  48  Eastern Kentucky   6   H   W    42   31.5  B10  fcs   27.7  59.2
8-Sep-12  Purdue  17  Notre Dame        20   R   L    -3    0.0  B10  IND   55.6  55.6
15-Sep-12 Purdue  54  Eastern Michigan  16   H   W    38   29.5  B10  MAC   24.9  54.4

Reply

George September 24, 2012 at 5:49 pm

Hi Chase,

I did it the least squares, mathletics way (whilst solver can still handle less than the 200 variables) – I haven’t added weightings to recent games and have an anomaly for Youngstown State and Cincinnati (due to the need to take all of the results in) and the model is definitely off (standard deviation is 7.99 rather than in the around 16 range). Home advantage is just over 2.89 and here is my top 20 teams through week 4:

Cincinnati 59.38958988
Youngstown State 55.11057165
Oregon 46.75626512
Delaware State 46.11646678
Texas 45.77080435
Alabama 44.25723436
Texas Tech 41.30113876
Pittsburgh 38.41650154
Texas A&M 35.58243228
Louisiana State 35.35818466
Florida 33.57554718
Georgia 33.33801369
Kansas State 32.53842928
Florida State 32.00777582
Oklahoma State 30.57184235
Stanford 30.07745255
Purdue 29.08145694
South Carolina 28.81613351
Arizona State 28.68139892
Fresno State 28.51357736

Points are all in relation to an average team (e.g. an Arkansas at 0.087) being rated 0 (e.g. so Oregon is 46.75 points better than average). I will try and add this in for next week but I expect there might be more than 200 variables involved by that point (so solver will cry enough!).

Nice post and great work as usual.

Reply

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