Derek Carr and Starting QBs Who Miss The Playoffs

by Chase Stuart on December 26, 2016

Oakland is going to the playoffs, but the Raiders will do so without starting quarterback Derek Carr. The third-year quarterback had a breakout season, driven in large part by his ability to minimize bad plays: Carr leads the NFL with a 2.8% sack rate, and his 1.1% interception rate ranks 4th in the league. Oakland went 12-3 in games started by Carr, but after breaking his fibula in a win over the Colts, the Raiders are now turning to Matt McGloin to lead them in the postseason. [Update: With McGloin hurt, Connor Cook will now be making his first career NFL start in the playoffs, the first quarterback to do that since at least 1950.]

Oakland isn’t the only team switching quarterbacks as we enter January. Houston started massive bust Brock Osweiler for the first 14 games of the season, and were rewarded with the worst quarterback play in the NFL. The Texans turned to Tom Savage early in the Jaguars game last week; Savage led Houston to a come-from-behind victory to earn the starting job. He struggled against Cincinnati in his first start, but he’s going to be the guy in the playoffs despite starting just one or two games all year (Houston could, in theory, rest Savage this week, as the Texans are locked in to the 4 seed).

Finally, there are the Miami Dolphins. After years of “will he or won’t he?” play from Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins are finally going to the playoffs…. but maybe without Tannehill. The perennially on-the-verge-of-breaking-out quarterback sprained his ACL and MCL against Arizona three weeks ago, leading his status for the playoffs in doubt. But backup Matt Moore led a game-winning drive against the Cardinals, excelled against the Jets, and was up-and-down in an overtime win against Buffalo on Sunday.

Assuming Moore starts in the playoffs, he’ll be the third quarterback this season to start a playoff game despite fewer than six regular season starts. Here’s every example in NFL history where that happened:

Year	Team	Main QB	Starts	Playoff QB	Playoff QB Reg Sea St
2016	OAK	Derek Carr	15	Connor Cook	0
2016	HOU	Brock Osweiler	14	Tom Savage	2
2016	MIA	Ryan Tannehill	13	Matt Moore	3
2015	CIN	Andy Dalton	13	A.J. McCarron	3
2014	ARI	Drew Stanton	8	Ryan Lindley	2
2012	MIN	Christian Ponder	16	Joe Webb	0
2011	HOU	Matt Schaub	10	T.J. Yates	5
2008	MIN	Gus Frerotte	11	Tarvaris Jackson	5
2007	WAS	Jason Campbell	13	Todd Collins	3
2005	CHI	Kyle Orton	15	Rex Grossman	1
2002	CLE	Tim Couch	14	Kelly Holcomb	2
2000	NOR	Jeff Blake	11	Aaron Brooks	5
1999	BUF	Doug Flutie	15	Rob Johnson	1
1999	TAM	Trent Dilfer	10	Shaun King	5
1998	NWE	Drew Bledsoe	14	Scott Zolak	2
1997	MIN	Brad Johnson	13	Randall Cunningham	3
1993	DET	Rodney Peete	10	Erik Kramer	4
1992	BUF	Jim Kelly	16	Frank Reich	0
1992	MIN	Rich Gannon	12	Sean Salisbury	4
1991	RAI	Jay Schroeder	15	Todd Marinovich	1
1991	DAL	Troy Aikman	12	Steve Beuerlein	4
1990	HOU	Warren Moon	15	Cody Carlson	1
1990	NYG	Phil Simms	14	Jeff Hostetler	2
1990	CHI	Jim Harbaugh	14	Mike Tomczak	2
1988	CLE	Bernie Kosar	9	Don Strock	2
1988	CHI	Jim McMahon	9	Mike Tomczak	5
1987	WAS	Jay Schroeder	10	Doug Williams	2
1987	MIN	Wade Wilson	7	Tommy Kramer	5
1986	CHI	Mike Tomczak	7	Doug Flutie	1
1986	NYJ	Ken O'Brien	14	Pat Ryan	2
1986	RAM	Jim Everett	5	Jim Everett	5
1984	CHI	Jim McMahon	9	Steve Fuller	4
1983	DET	Eric Hipple	16	Gary Danielson	0
1983	DEN	John Elway	10	Steve DeBerg	5
1982	CLE	Brian Sipe	6	Paul McDonald	3
1982	DET	Gary Danielson	5	Eric Hipple	4
1979	HOU	Dan Pastorini	15	Gifford Nielsen	1
1979	RAM	Pat Haden	10	Vince Ferragamo	5
1977	MIN	Fran Tarkenton	9	Bob Lee	4
1975	RAM	James Harris	13	Ron Jaworski	1
1972	DAL	Craig Morton	14	Roger Staubach	0
1972	SFO	Steve Spurrier	9	John Brodie	5
1972	MIA	Earl Morrall	9	Bob Griese	5
1971	MIN	Gary Cuozzo	8	Bob Lee	4
1971	BAL	Earl Morrall	9	Johnny Unitas	5
1965	BAL	Johnny Unitas	11	Tom Matte	1
1957	DET	Bobby Layne	7	Tobin Rote	5
1949	NYY	Don Panciera	12	Pete Layden	0
1948	CRD	Ray Mallouf	5	Jerry Davis	3
1945	RAM	Bob Waterfield	4	Steve Nemeth	4
1937	CHI	Bernie Masterson	5	Bernie Masterson	5

A few of these teams went on to win the Super Bowl, with the Giants behind Jeff Hostetler (after Phil Simms was lost for the season) being the most famous example. Ditto Washington with Doug Williams, who like Hostetler, only started two games during the regular season (that’s one of two instances on the list where Jay Schroeder was benched for the playoffs). Miami in 1972 went undefeated largely with Earl Morrall at quarterback, but switched to Bob Griese for the Super Bowl after he made a few plays in the second half of the AFC Championship Game. Vince Ferragamo led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 1979, after starter Pat Haden went down with an injury.

Shaun King took the Bucs to the NFC Championship Game in 1999; Steve Fuller was the Bears starter in that game 15 years earlier. With Fran Tarkenton hurt, Bob Lee was the Vikings starter in the 1977 postseason, and the team made it to the NFC Championship Game. Roger Staubach (1972) and Johnny Unitas (1971) of all people qualify, too. And let’s not forget about Tobin Rote taking over for Bobby Layne‘s Lions in ’57 and guiding the Lions to the title.

The odds of either of the Matts or Tom Savage leading their teams to the Super Bowl seem long right now, but it’s happened before. Of course, so have things like the Joe Webb playoff experience.

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