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Are Teams Not Throwing Enough Interceptions?

In before the first “Well the Jets sure are” comment…..

On Saturday night, the Texans/Bengals game opened with 12 straight punts. Here’s the drive chart, in reverse chronological order, after twelve drives:

The first half ended with a 14-play, 67-yard drive by the Bengals for a field goal, on the 13th drive of the half. Interception rates are way down, and many of those interceptions have been replaced with punts. Take a look at the Punt/Interception ratio throughout NFL history. This chart goes from 1940 to week 15 of the 2016 season; the NFL is in blue, while the AAFC/AFL is in orange:

Some (most? all?) of this is the result of interception rates dropping precipitously; I don’t get the sense that teams are punting *more* now, but it’s difficult (impossible?) to splice out punt rates from the fact that teams are throwing fewer interceptions and are more willing to attempt field goals (as kicking efficiency has soared). But it’s certainly possible that teams are being too conservative when it comes to offensive philosophy, and a higher punt-to-interception ratio is one example of that.

As best I can tell, the “record” for largest punt/interception ratio in a single season was 16.2, set by the 1990 Chiefs. Well, the Vikings have 72 punts against just 4 interceptions through 14 games, an 18:1 ratio. That would set a new record, except for the fact that the Patriots have 69 punts this year against just *two* interceptions. Of course, perhaps here is the money question: could even New England benefit from throwing a few more interceptions?

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