1980 Archie Manning, and Winning vs. Stats Part 2

by Chase Stuart on March 31, 2017

in Checkdowns, Quarterbacks, Statgeekery

Manning didn’t have much help during his career

Yesterday, I looked at quarterbacks from 2016 who started at least 8 games and threw at least 150 passes. For those passers, I calculated how many standard deviations above average they were in Relative ANY/A (i.e., how much better they were, statistically, than average) and in winning percentage. I sorted the list by the difference between the two, to find the quarterbacks whose stats and winning percentages diverged by the largest amounts.

What about historically? I performed the same study going back to 1970. And the season that stands out the most is Archie Manning’s 1980 season. That year the Saints were the worst team in the league: New Orleans went 1-15, and every other team won at least 4 games. ^[1]The Saints’ troubles continued into the draft; New Orleans selected George Rogers first overall, when two of the top four, and three of the top eight players went on to be Hall of Famers. Manning started every game for the team because he actually had a strong season, at least statistically: he ranked 9th out of 30 qualifying passers in ANY/A, and had a Relative ANY/A of +0.53. That, of course, is pretty unusual given his team’s 1-15 record.

That stands out as the biggest example of a divergence of stats being more impressive than team record. The best 100 seasons (although by default, the table only lists the top 20) are below:

Rk	Quarterback	Team	Year	St	Win %	RANY/A	StDv Win%	StDv RANY/A	Diff
1	Archie Manning	NOR	1980	16	0.063	0.53	-2.21	0.44	2.65
2	Steve Young	SFO	1991	10	0.500	3.10	0.00	2.61	2.61
3	Jim Hart	STL	1973	12	0.292	1.68	-1.05	1.42	2.47
4	Charlie Batch	DET	2001	9	0.000	-0.07	-2.53	-0.06	2.47
5	Jeff Garcia	SFO	2000	16	0.375	2.13	-0.63	1.80	2.43
6	Vinny Testaverde	BAL	1996	16	0.250	1.23	-1.26	1.04	2.30
7	Roman Gabriel	PHI	1973	14	0.393	2.06	-0.54	1.74	2.28
8	Jeff George	OAK	1997	16	0.250	1.16	-1.26	0.98	2.24
9	Cody Kessler	CLE	2016	8	0.000	-0.34	-2.53	-0.28	2.24
10	Peyton Manning	IND	2004	16	0.750	4.14	1.26	3.49	2.23
11	Virgil Carter	CIN	1971	10	0.400	1.97	-0.51	1.66	2.17
12	Case Keenum	HOU	2013	8	0.000	-0.47	-2.53	-0.40	2.13
13	Steve DeBerg	TAM	1985	11	0.091	0.06	-2.07	0.05	2.12
14	Steve DeBerg	SFO	1979	15	0.133	0.31	-1.85	0.26	2.11
15	Joe Montana	SFO	1982	9	0.333	1.50	-0.84	1.27	2.11
16	Marc Bulger	STL	2005	8	0.250	1.00	-1.26	0.84	2.10
17	Bill Kenney	KAN	1985	10	0.300	1.28	-1.01	1.08	2.09
18	Josh McCown	CLE	2015	8	0.125	0.19	-1.89	0.16	2.05
19	Kurt Warner	ARI	2005	10	0.200	0.61	-1.52	0.52	2.03
20	Daunte Culpepper	MIN	2004	16	0.500	2.39	0.00	2.01	2.01
21	Mike Livingston	KAN	1976	14	0.357	1.50	-0.72	1.26	1.98
22	Bert Jones	BAL	1981	15	0.133	0.15	-1.85	0.12	1.98
23	Rodney Peete	DET	1992	10	0.200	0.54	-1.52	0.46	1.97
24	Philip Rivers	SDG	2008	16	0.500	2.33	0.00	1.97	1.97
25	Dan Fouts	SDG	1983	10	0.500	2.33	0.00	1.96	1.96
26	Donovan McNabb	PHI	2006	10	0.500	2.33	0.00	1.96	1.96
27	Dan Fouts	SDG	1974	11	0.273	0.94	-1.15	0.79	1.94
28	Kyle Orton	DEN	2010	13	0.231	0.67	-1.36	0.56	1.92
29	Neil O'Donnell	CIN	1998	11	0.182	0.37	-1.61	0.31	1.92
30	Mike Livingston	KAN	1977	11	0.091	-0.20	-2.07	-0.17	1.90
31	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1970	14	0.429	1.78	-0.36	1.50	1.86
32	Steve Pelluer	DAL	1988	14	0.214	0.49	-1.44	0.41	1.86
33	Jeff Garcia	SFO	1999	10	0.200	0.37	-1.52	0.31	1.83
34	Jim Kelly	BUF	1986	16	0.250	0.66	-1.26	0.56	1.82
35	Colin Kaepernick	SFO	2016	11	0.091	-0.29	-2.07	-0.25	1.82
36	Vinny Testaverde	CLE	1995	12	0.333	1.16	-0.84	0.97	1.82
37	Dan Marino	MIA	1988	16	0.375	1.40	-0.63	1.18	1.81
38	Ken Anderson	CIN	1974	13	0.538	2.36	0.19	1.99	1.80
39	Steve DeBerg	TAM	1987	8	0.250	0.62	-1.26	0.53	1.79
40	Chris Miller	ATL	1992	8	0.375	1.31	-0.63	1.10	1.74
41	Warren Moon	HOU	1984	16	0.188	0.18	-1.58	0.15	1.73
42	Dan Marino	MIA	1986	16	0.500	2.03	0.00	1.71	1.71
43	Bert Jones	BAL	1976	14	0.786	3.72	1.44	3.13	1.69
44	Boomer Esiason	CIN	1987	12	0.250	0.49	-1.26	0.41	1.68
45	Jim Harbaugh	IND	1997	11	0.182	0.05	-1.61	0.04	1.65
46	Jim Zorn	SEA	1981	13	0.308	0.80	-0.97	0.68	1.65
47	Bill Kenney	KAN	1987	8	0.375	1.20	-0.63	1.01	1.64
48	Boomer Esiason	CIN	1985	14	0.500	1.95	0.00	1.64	1.64
49	Dan Fouts	SDG	1982	9	0.667	2.94	0.84	2.48	1.64
50	Jeff George	IND	1993	11	0.182	0.03	-1.61	0.02	1.63
51	Jon Kitna	CIN	2002	12	0.167	-0.08	-1.68	-0.07	1.62
52	Joe Namath	NYJ	1972	13	0.538	2.14	0.19	1.80	1.61
53	Archie Manning	NOR	1977	9	0.111	-0.43	-1.96	-0.36	1.60
54	Tommy Kramer	MIN	1986	13	0.538	2.12	0.19	1.79	1.59
55	John Brodie	SFO	1970	14	0.750	3.37	1.26	2.84	1.57
56	Chris Miller	ATL	1989	15	0.200	0.07	-1.52	0.06	1.57
57	Mike Pagel	BAL	1982	9	0.056	-0.80	-2.25	-0.68	1.57
58	Greg Landry	BAL	1979	12	0.167	-0.14	-1.68	-0.12	1.57
59	Greg Landry	DET	1971	14	0.536	2.07	0.18	1.75	1.57
60	Bob Berry	ATL	1971	10	0.450	1.56	-0.25	1.31	1.57
61	Drew Brees	NOR	2008	16	0.500	1.85	0.00	1.56	1.56
62	Tyler Thigpen	KAN	2008	11	0.091	-0.62	-2.07	-0.53	1.54
63	Gary Danielson	DET	1984	14	0.250	0.33	-1.26	0.28	1.54
64	Jim Everett	RAM	1990	16	0.313	0.68	-0.95	0.57	1.52
65	Warren Moon	HOU	1990	15	0.533	1.99	0.17	1.67	1.51
66	Mark Brunell	WAS	2006	9	0.333	0.79	-0.84	0.66	1.50
67	Trent Green	KAN	2004	16	0.438	1.41	-0.32	1.19	1.50
68	Jeff Blake	CIN	1999	12	0.250	0.27	-1.26	0.22	1.49
69	Matt Schaub	HOU	2010	16	0.375	1.01	-0.63	0.85	1.48
70	Roman Gabriel	PHI	1975	9	0.222	0.08	-1.40	0.07	1.47
71	Elvis Grbac	KAN	2000	15	0.467	1.54	-0.17	1.30	1.47
72	Steve Spurrier	TAM	1976	12	0.000	-1.26	-2.53	-1.06	1.46
73	Archie Manning	NOR	1978	16	0.438	1.36	-0.32	1.14	1.46
74	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1983	14	0.429	1.28	-0.36	1.08	1.44
75	Chris Miller	ATL	1990	12	0.250	0.21	-1.26	0.18	1.44
76	Craig Morton	DAL	1970	11	0.727	3.06	1.15	2.58	1.43
77	Jason Campbell	CLE	2013	8	0.125	-0.55	-1.89	-0.47	1.43
78	Jim Plunkett	RAI	1986	8	0.375	0.94	-0.63	0.79	1.43
79	Steve McNair	TEN	2005	14	0.286	0.41	-1.08	0.34	1.43
80	Dan Marino	MIA	1984	16	0.875	3.94	1.89	3.32	1.42
81	Steve Young	SFO	1993	16	0.625	2.44	0.63	2.05	1.42
82	Alex Van Pelt	BUF	2001	8	0.250	0.19	-1.26	0.16	1.42
83	Ken Anderson	CIN	1979	15	0.267	0.29	-1.18	0.24	1.42
84	Philip Rivers	SDG	2015	16	0.250	0.19	-1.26	0.16	1.42
85	Matt Ryan	ATL	2016	16	0.688	2.81	0.95	2.37	1.42
86	Boomer Esiason	CIN	1989	15	0.467	1.48	-0.17	1.25	1.42
87	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	2008	16	0.375	0.93	-0.63	0.78	1.42
88	Trent Green	KAN	2002	16	0.500	1.68	0.00	1.41	1.41
89	Richard Todd	NYJ	1977	11	0.273	0.31	-1.15	0.26	1.41
90	Philip Rivers	SDG	2010	16	0.563	2.04	0.32	1.72	1.40
91	Erik Kramer	CHI	1998	8	0.375	0.91	-0.63	0.77	1.40
92	Lynn Dickey	GNB	1983	16	0.500	1.66	0.00	1.39	1.39
93	Dan Fouts	SDG	1985	12	0.583	2.15	0.42	1.81	1.39
94	Brian Sipe	CLE	1978	16	0.500	1.63	0.00	1.37	1.37
95	Bob Griese	MIA	1976	13	0.385	0.94	-0.58	0.79	1.37
96	Boomer Esiason	CIN	1991	14	0.214	-0.09	-1.44	-0.07	1.37
97	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1984	11	0.273	0.26	-1.15	0.22	1.37
98	Kerry Collins	OAK	2005	15	0.267	0.22	-1.18	0.18	1.36
99	Drew Brees	NOR	2012	16	0.438	1.24	-0.32	1.04	1.36
100	Jim Everett	RAM	1991	16	0.188	-0.27	-1.58	-0.22	1.36

Number 2 on the list is Steve Young’s 1991 season, which might surprise you because he had a .500 record. But that year, Mark Rypien had an ANY/A of 8.34, Young was at 8.28, and no other passer was above 7.00. Rypien, of course, went 14-2 (really, 14-1, as the final game was a meaningless one for Washington and Rypien rested for some of the game), while Young went .500. That’s one Young stands out, in an interesting contract to Manning, as the second biggest divergence between stats and record.

References[+]

References
↑1	The Saints’ troubles continued into the draft; New Orleans selected George Rogers first overall, when two of the top four, and three of the top eight players went on to be Hall of Famers.

Tagged as: Archie Manning

{ 12 comments }