1973 Terry Bradshaw, and Winning vs. Stats Part 3

by Chase Stuart on April 1, 2017

On Thursday, I looked at quarterbacks from 2016 who started at least 8 games and threw at least 150 passes. For those passers, I calculated how many standard deviations above average they were in Relative ANY/A (i.e., how much better they were, statistically, than average) and in winning percentage. I sorted the list by the difference between the two, to find the quarterbacks whose stats and winning percentages diverged by the largest amounts. And yesterday, I looked at the quarterbacks whose passing stats most greatly exceeded their winning percentage in any given season.

Today, the reverse: the quarterbacks whose winning percentages were much more impressive than their passing numbers. And the 1973 season had by Terry Bradshaw stands out as the most extreme example. In ’73, Bradshaw went 8-1, despite passing stats that were bad even by 1973 standards: he threw 10 TDs, 15 interceptions, and averaged just 4.89 NY/A. Bradshaw ranked 21st in ANY/A at just 2.56 out of 24 qualifying passers.

Rk	Quarterback	Team	Year	St	Win %	RANY/A	StDv Win%	StDv RANY/A	Diff
1	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1973	9	0.889	-1.33	1.96	-1.12	-3.08
2	Peyton Manning	DEN	2015	9	0.778	-1.74	1.40	-1.47	-2.87
3	Kyle Orton	CHI	2005	15	0.667	-2.14	0.84	-1.80	-2.65
4	Trent Dilfer	BAL	2000	8	0.875	-0.74	1.89	-0.62	-2.52
5	Rodney Peete	PHI	1995	12	0.750	-1.27	1.26	-1.07	-2.33
6	Marc Wilson	RAI	1985	13	0.846	-0.57	1.75	-0.48	-2.23
7	Gary Cuozzo	MIN	1971	8	0.750	-1.14	1.26	-0.96	-2.22
8	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1970	8	0.375	-3.30	-0.63	-2.78	-2.15
9	Joe Ferguson	BUF	1973	14	0.643	-1.68	0.72	-1.42	-2.14
10	Mike Phipps	CHI	1979	10	0.900	-0.13	2.02	-0.11	-2.13
11	David Woodley	MIA	1982	9	0.778	-0.85	1.40	-0.72	-2.12
12	Joe Theismann	WAS	1985	11	0.545	-2.20	0.23	-1.85	-2.08
13	Mike Phipps	CLE	1973	14	0.571	-2.03	0.36	-1.71	-2.07
14	Ryan Leaf	SDG	1998	9	0.333	-3.38	-0.84	-2.85	-2.01
15	Bobby Hebert	NOR	1991	9	0.889	-0.03	1.96	-0.02	-1.99
16	Gus Frerotte	MIN	2008	11	0.727	-0.98	1.15	-0.83	-1.98
17	Brock Osweiler	HOU	2016	14	0.571	-1.88	0.36	-1.58	-1.94
18	Heath Shuler	NOR	1997	9	0.444	-2.64	-0.28	-2.22	-1.94
19	Rodney Peete	DET	1993	10	0.600	-1.67	0.51	-1.40	-1.91
20	Jim Miller	CHI	2001	13	0.846	-0.18	1.75	-0.15	-1.90
21	Danny Kanell	NYG	1997	10	0.750	-0.74	1.26	-0.62	-1.89
22	Steve Fuller	KAN	1979	12	0.500	-2.23	0.00	-1.88	-1.88
23	Phil Simms	NYG	1986	16	0.875	0.03	1.89	0.03	-1.87
24	Mark Malone	PIT	1987	12	0.500	-2.19	0.00	-1.84	-1.84
25	Bob Lee	ATL	1974	9	0.222	-3.85	-1.40	-3.24	-1.84
26	Michael Vick	ATL	2004	15	0.733	-0.76	1.18	-0.64	-1.82
27	Jim Plunkett	OAK	1980	11	0.818	-0.22	1.61	-0.18	-1.79
28	Cliff Stoudt	PIT	1983	15	0.600	-1.50	0.51	-1.27	-1.77
29	Trent Dilfer	TAM	1999	10	0.700	-0.90	1.01	-0.76	-1.77
30	Jim Plunkett	RAI	1982	9	0.889	0.27	1.96	0.23	-1.73
31	Rex Grossman	CHI	2006	16	0.813	-0.17	1.58	-0.14	-1.72
32	Steve Grogan	NWE	1976	14	0.786	-0.29	1.44	-0.24	-1.69
33	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	2008	16	0.750	-0.50	1.26	-0.42	-1.68
34	Kerry Collins	CAR	1997	13	0.462	-2.22	-0.19	-1.87	-1.68
35	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1972	14	0.786	-0.28	1.44	-0.23	-1.68
36	Ken Stabler	HOU	1980	16	0.688	-0.86	0.95	-0.73	-1.67
37	John Elway	DEN	1992	12	0.667	-0.89	0.84	-0.75	-1.59
38	John Elway	DEN	1984	14	0.857	0.26	1.80	0.22	-1.59
39	Tim Tebow	DEN	2011	11	0.636	-1.05	0.69	-0.89	-1.57
40	Steve Bono	KAN	1995	16	0.813	0.01	1.58	0.01	-1.57
41	Kyle Boller	BAL	2004	16	0.563	-1.47	0.32	-1.24	-1.55
42	Rodney Peete	DET	1991	8	0.750	-0.35	1.26	-0.29	-1.55
43	Marc Wilson	RAI	1986	8	0.625	-1.09	0.63	-0.92	-1.55
44	Doug Flutie	NWE	1988	9	0.667	-0.84	0.84	-0.70	-1.55
45	Dan Pastorini	HOU	1979	15	0.667	-0.79	0.84	-0.67	-1.51
46	Kyle Boller	BAL	2003	9	0.556	-1.46	0.28	-1.23	-1.51
47	Rick Mirer	SEA	1995	13	0.538	-1.56	0.19	-1.31	-1.51
48	Tony Banks	BAL	2000	8	0.625	-1.04	0.63	-0.87	-1.50
49	Tarvaris Jackson	MIN	2007	12	0.667	-0.78	0.84	-0.66	-1.50
50	Mike Phipps	CLE	1972	13	0.769	-0.16	1.36	-0.14	-1.50
51	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	2009	15	0.533	-1.57	0.17	-1.33	-1.49
52	Jeff George	IND	1992	10	0.600	-1.16	0.51	-0.98	-1.48
53	Jim McMahon	CHI	1985	11	1.000	1.25	2.53	1.05	-1.47
54	Chris Chandler	IND	1988	13	0.692	-0.59	0.97	-0.50	-1.47
55	Todd Blackledge	KAN	1986	8	0.625	-0.98	0.63	-0.83	-1.46
56	Elvis Grbac	KAN	1997	10	0.800	0.07	1.52	0.06	-1.45
57	Marc Bulger	STL	2003	15	0.800	0.08	1.52	0.07	-1.45
58	Geno Smith	NYJ	2013	16	0.500	-1.70	0.00	-1.44	-1.44
59	Nick Foles	PHI	2014	8	0.750	-0.20	1.26	-0.17	-1.43
60	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	2004	13	1.000	1.30	2.53	1.10	-1.43
61	Joe Flacco	BAL	2011	16	0.750	-0.20	1.26	-0.17	-1.43
62	Gary Cuozzo	MIN	1970	12	0.833	0.30	1.68	0.26	-1.43
63	Christian Ponder	MIN	2012	16	0.625	-0.94	0.63	-0.79	-1.43
64	Teddy Bridgewater	MIN	2015	16	0.688	-0.56	0.95	-0.47	-1.42
65	Cam Newton	CAR	2015	16	0.938	0.94	2.21	0.79	-1.42
66	Vince Young	TEN	2007	15	0.600	-1.08	0.51	-0.91	-1.42
67	Cam Newton	CAR	2013	16	0.750	-0.18	1.26	-0.15	-1.41
68	JaMarcus Russell	OAK	2009	9	0.222	-3.34	-1.40	-2.81	-1.41
69	Jake Plummer	DEN	2006	11	0.636	-0.85	0.69	-0.71	-1.40
70	Alex Smith	SFO	2011	16	0.813	0.23	1.58	0.19	-1.39
71	Pete Liske	DEN	1970	9	0.556	-1.31	0.28	-1.10	-1.38
72	David Woodley	MIA	1981	15	0.767	-0.04	1.35	-0.03	-1.38
73	Neil O'Donnell	PIT	1994	14	0.714	-0.32	1.08	-0.27	-1.35
74	Erik Kramer	DET	1991	8	0.750	-0.09	1.26	-0.08	-1.34
75	Billy Kilmer	WAS	1976	9	0.778	0.08	1.40	0.07	-1.33
76	Jay Cutler	CHI	2012	15	0.667	-0.57	0.84	-0.48	-1.32
77	Steve McNair	BAL	2006	16	0.813	0.32	1.58	0.27	-1.31
78	Marc Wilson	OAK	1981	9	0.556	-1.22	0.28	-1.03	-1.31
79	Vince Young	TEN	2006	13	0.615	-0.86	0.58	-0.73	-1.31
80	Donovan McNabb	PHI	2000	16	0.688	-0.42	0.95	-0.35	-1.30
81	Earl Morrall	BAL	1971	9	0.778	0.12	1.40	0.10	-1.30
82	David Woodley	MIA	1980	11	0.545	-1.27	0.23	-1.07	-1.30
83	Joe Flacco	BAL	2008	16	0.688	-0.41	0.95	-0.35	-1.29
84	Kordell Stewart	PIT	1999	12	0.455	-1.80	-0.23	-1.52	-1.29
85	Tom Brady	NWE	2001	14	0.786	0.20	1.44	0.17	-1.28
86	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	2009	8	0.500	-1.52	0.00	-1.28	-1.28
87	Johnny Unitas	BAL	1970	13	0.808	0.33	1.55	0.28	-1.28
88	Randall Cunningham	PHI	1989	16	0.688	-0.39	0.95	-0.33	-1.27
89	Tom Brady	NWE	2003	16	0.875	0.74	1.89	0.62	-1.27
90	Mark Brunell	JAX	1999	15	0.867	0.69	1.85	0.58	-1.27
91	Kerry Collins	TEN	2008	15	0.800	0.30	1.52	0.26	-1.26
92	Jay Schroeder	WAS	1987	10	0.800	0.31	1.52	0.26	-1.26
93	Dan Pastorini	HOU	1975	14	0.714	-0.20	1.08	-0.17	-1.25
94	Jim Plunkett	RAI	1983	13	0.769	0.14	1.36	0.12	-1.24
95	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	2010	16	0.688	-0.35	0.95	-0.29	-1.24
96	Steve Walsh	CHI	1994	11	0.727	-0.11	1.15	-0.09	-1.24
97	Jim McMahon	CHI	1988	9	0.778	0.21	1.40	0.18	-1.23
98	Warren Moon	HOU	1993	14	0.714	-0.16	1.08	-0.14	-1.22
99	A.J. Feeley	MIA	2004	8	0.375	-2.20	-0.63	-1.85	-1.22
100	Eli Manning	NYG	2007	16	0.625	-0.70	0.63	-0.59	-1.22

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