Last week, the Game Script winners went 14-0. In week 12, there were two moderately-sized comebacks:

• In New York, the Giants jumped out to 14-3 and 21-10 leads, fueled in part by Odell Beckham being ridiculous. But then the Cowboys offensive line got ridiculous, and Dallas went on a 21-7 run to win the game despite posting a Game Script of -4.0.

• In Denver, the the Dolphins controlled the game for most of the first three quarters. Miami led 21-10 with two minutes left in the first half, and later took a 28-17 lead into the fourth quarter. But the Broncos scored three straight touchdowns to put the game out of reach, despite finishing with a Game Script of -4.3.

Denver had posted a Game Script of at least +5.0 in 6 of the team’s first 7 games, after doing so in 10 of 16 games in 2013. But things have changed drastically in Denver over the last month: the Broncos have had Game Scripts of -11.5, -7.7, and now -4.3 in three of the team’s last four games.

On the positive Game Script side, the Eagles (+14.3) and Bills (+14.2) were the big producers this week, although New England’s +11.2 against Detroit might have been the most impressive when you consider strength of schedule. The table below shows the week 12 Game Scripts data:

• The team with the most pass-heavy offense of week 12 was… the Patriots? Yes, Detroit has a great run defense, but it’s a bit odd seeing one of the two teams that won by 25+ points in week 12 throwing 53 times. Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Shane Vereen all finished with 8 or more receptions, as Tom Brady went 38/53 for 349 yards and two touchdowns. On the legs of Jonas Gray, the Patriots were very run-heavy a week ago, so as usual, nobody can ever predict what will happen in New England.

• After the Patriots, the only other team that stood out as pass-happy was Tampa Bay. The Bucs and Bears played an even game — Chicago had a Game Script of +0.5 — but the Bears passed on 54% of plays while Tampa Bay threw 72% of the time. That made sense, though, given the context of the team’s strengths. Tampa Bay did very little on the ground — Charles Sims and Doug Martin combined for 49 yards on 17 carries — while Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and Louis Murphy (6/113/0) gave Tampa Bay the team’s best chance to win.

• Playing in New Orleans, the Ravens went very run-happy despite a very good day out of Joe Flacco (18/24, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack). Of course, there was a reason for that: Flacco wasn’t the only one having success against the Saints bad defense, as Justin Forsett carried 22 times for 182 yards and two touchdowns. Baltimore had a Game Script of +4.0, so the team’s 44% pass ratio gets graded as very run-heavy.

• Another run-heavy team was… the Broncos? Denver finished with 36 pass attempts and 35 runs, which is pretty unusual for a Peyton Manning offense while playing through a negative Game Script. Manning was efficient — 28/35 for 257 yards with 4 TDs and no interceptions — but C.J. Anderson was excellent, too, rushing 27 times for 167 yards.

• Finally, the Bears were the other run-heavy team this week. As hinted at above, Chicago and Tampa Bay had wildly different run/pass philosophies in what was a neutral game. Chicago finished with 26 runs and 30 passes, although that may be more a reflection of the team’s efficiency than anything else. Matt Forte rushed for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 carries; while a 3.9 YPC average may not be great, Jay Cutler averaged just 3.7 Net Yards per Attempt on Sunday.

Finally, let’s close with a look at each team’s average Game Script this year, in comparison to where each team ranks in points scored, points allowed, and points differential. Here’s how to read the table below. The Packers are first in average Game Script this year. Over 11 games, Green Bay is averaging 32.2 points per game, and allowing 22.4 points per game, for a points differential of +9.8. Meanwhile, the Packers average Game Script is +7.6, which means the Packers have been very good at outscoring opponents early in games. In fact, the Patriots (+118) and Packers (+117) have points differentials in the first halves of games more than double that of the next best team. ^[1]The Packers actually have the third worst points differential in fourth quarters this year, which is why the team has a worse points differential than New England despite the better Game Script.

The Chiefs, Cardinals, and Cowboys all stand out as having points differentials that far exceed their Game Scripts. For Arizona in particular, the +0.5 Game Script is a good explanation for why they are not viewed as a dominant team, despite the 9-2 record. ^[2]For all the (justifiable) talk about how a good NFC West team may have to go on the road against a bad NFC South division champ in the playoffs, I will point out that the Falcons actually have a … Continue reading The Cowboys are 8-3, but a +1.0 Game Script isn’t too impressive, either.

On the other side, the Rams are the clear biggest outliers, with the Falcons and Packers also underwhelming. St. Louis has an average Game Script of -0.9, but the Rams have been outscored by 6.9 points per game this year! Of course, there is nothing “black box” about Game Scripts data; when you see a weird result like this, there’s usually a pretty obvious explanation. The Rams have actually outscored opponents 127-109 in the first halves of games this year, but have a league-worst -94 in points differential in the second half.

Finally, you can see the Game Scripts data from every game this season here.