Some weeks, the NFL is filled with comebacks. Some weeks there are teams that wind up winning with strongly negative Game Scripts. And then there was week 11. There were only three comebacks last weekend, and none of them were last-minute comebacks:
- Seattle led 20-17 entering the 4th quarter, but the Chiefs scored the game’s final points — a Knile Davis touchdown — with over 13 minutes left in the quarter.
- Pittsburgh technically trailed 24-13 entering the 4th quarter, before Le’Veon Bell scored on the first play of the final frame. The Steelers scored the go-ahead score with just over nine minutes left, and since Pittsburgh led for most of the first half, the Steelers finished with a Game Script of +0.3.
- Carolina took a 1-point lead with just over 6 minutes left in the game against Atlanta, but the Falcons responded with a field goal on the ensuing drive to win the game. The kick came with just over 2 minutes remaining, but a 1-point 4th quarter deficit doesn’t move the Game Script needle.
The table below shows the Game Scripts for each game in week 11. As you can see, despite some shocking upsets, week 11 was as straightforward as it gets: all 14 teams with positive Game Scripts were victorious. For the second straight week, the Packers provided the biggest Game Script of the week, while the Bucs (!) were the only other team with a Game Script in double digits.
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNB | PHI | Boxscore | 53 | 20 | 33 | 16.6 | 39 | 24 | 61.9% | 47 | 28 | 62.7% | |
| TAM | @ | WAS | Boxscore | 27 | 7 | 20 | 10.7 | 25 | 21 | 54.3% | 38 | 31 | 55.1% |
| ARI | DET | Boxscore | 14 | 6 | 8 | 8.6 | 32 | 26 | 55.2% | 34 | 19 | 64.2% | |
| NWE | @ | IND | Boxscore | 42 | 20 | 22 | 8.2 | 30 | 44 | 40.5% | 40 | 17 | 70.2% |
| CIN | @ | NOR | Boxscore | 27 | 10 | 17 | 8.1 | 23 | 36 | 39% | 41 | 25 | 62.1% |
| STL | DEN | Boxscore | 22 | 7 | 15 | 7.7 | 31 | 33 | 48.4% | 56 | 10 | 84.8% | |
| SDG | OAK | Boxscore | 13 | 6 | 7 | 6.9 | 36 | 32 | 52.9% | 35 | 18 | 66% | |
| HOU | @ | CLE | Boxscore | 23 | 7 | 16 | 6.6 | 30 | 53 | 36.1% | 52 | 24 | 68.4% |
| ATL | @ | CAR | Boxscore | 19 | 17 | 2 | 3.4 | 47 | 27 | 63.5% | 39 | 25 | 60.9% |
| KAN | SEA | Boxscore | 24 | 20 | 4 | 3.3 | 16 | 30 | 34.8% | 34 | 37 | 47.9% | |
| SFO | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 16 | 10 | 6 | 2.1 | 29 | 35 | 45.3% | 47 | 21 | 69.1% |
| MIA | BUF | Boxscore | 22 | 9 | 13 | 1.5 | 38 | 24 | 61.3% | 41 | 19 | 68.3% | |
| CHI | MIN | Boxscore | 21 | 13 | 8 | 1.1 | 43 | 31 | 58.1% | 30 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| PIT | @ | TEN | Boxscore | 27 | 24 | 3 | 0.3 | 37 | 36 | 50.7% | 24 | 15 | 61.5% |
- Last week, the Browns called 52 rushing plays as part of a +12.8 Game Script against the Bengals. This week, the Browns called 52 pass plays as part of a -6.6 Game Script against the Texans. Cleveland is one of just eight teams to call 50 runs and 50 passes in back-to-back weeks in NFL history.
- In Ryan Mallett’s first start, the Texans went super conservative against the Browns, calling 53 running plays of their own. A Game Script of +6.6 does not demand conservative play, but the same can not be said about a fourth year veteran in his first NFL start. Houston, you may recall, was without Arian Foster: that didn’t stop the Texans from giving Alfred Blue 36 carries and Jonathan Grimes another 13!
- The Chiefs were very run-heavy against Seattle, which is only half surprising. We expect Jamaal Charles to handle a heavy load, but against the top run defense in football? That was the surprising part, and Charles was outstanding against the Seahawks, rushing for 159 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 carries. As it turns out, Kansas City threw just 16 times, the fewest for any team in a game this year.
- Other run-heavy teams in week 11: Washington (actually a more run-heavy ratio than Tampa Bay despite a -10.7 Game Script), New England (40.5% pass ratio is one-sided, even for a Game Script of +8.2), Cincinnati (39%, +8.1), San Francisco (45.3%, +2.1), and Seattle (47.9%, -3.3). Three of those teams have mobile quarterbacks, of course, and those 6-8 carries can help tilt things a bit.
- Only two teams stood out as really pass-heavy this week, which is a good way of telling you that it was a very run-heavy week. Over the first ten weeks of the season, NFL teams passed on 58.4% of plays. In week 11, that dropped to 57.1%. That’s a significant change — at least significant enough that looking at the week 11 results caused me to crunch such numbers — and it occurred with the Jets and Cowboys on bye. Shifting towards the run is as common (and is tied to) a change in the weather, so it will be interesting to monitor this over the next few weeks.
- The Packers keep passing, and having an MVP quarterback in Aaron Rodgers is a good reason to keep passing. Despite a Game Script of +16.6, Green Bay still threw over 60% of the time. Packers running backs combined for only 19 carries despite the monster blowout (although Green Bay did lose a couple of second half drives due to defensive touchdowns).
- The other pass-happy team boasts a five-time NFL MVP in Peyton Manning. The Broncos had a Game Script of -7.7, and responded by passing on 85% of all plays. The Broncos had just ten rushing plays in what was the most pass-happy game of the year.
As a reminder, you can view all of the Game Scripts results from each game this year at this page, which is updated every week.