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Every year, I look at the least-conforming games in the NFL. What do I mean by least-conforming? Well, let’s use the Titans trip to Jacksonville in week 2 this season as an example. Tennessee has an SRS of -5.1 this year, while the Jaguars have an SRS of +9.3. Given that the game was in Jacksonville, we would expect the Titans to lose by 17.4 points, assuming 3 points for the home team. In reality, the Titans won by 21 points, a swing of 38.4 points! That was the “weirdest” game of the year.

The Titans were also in the second least-conforming game of the season. Facing a Deshaun Watson Texans team, the Titans traveled to Houston and lost by a whopping 43 points. The Texans — thanks in part, of course, to several non-Watson games — have an SRS of -0.4. So at home against Tennessee, we would have expected the aveage Texans team to win b 7.8 points, not 43 points. That difference of 35.2 was one of just three games where the difference between the actual result and expected result exceeded 30 points.

The table below shows every game from the 2017 season through 11 weeks:

WeekTeamH/ROpponentPFPADiffTm SRSOpp SRSExp ResDiff
2Tennessee Titans@Jacksonville Jaguars371621-5.19.3-17.438.4
4Houston TexansTennessee Titans571443-0.4-5.17.835.2
3Jacksonville JaguarsNBaltimore Ravens447379.33.26.130.9
2Denver BroncosDallas Cowboys421725-7.20.1-4.329.3
8Baltimore RavensMiami Dolphins400403.2-9.315.524.5
7Dallas Cowboys@San Francisco 49ers4010300.1-8.96.024.0
10New Orleans Saints@Buffalo Bills47103711.1-5.113.223.8
2Oakland RaidersNew York Jets452025-4.9-4.82.822.2
11Baltimore Ravens@Green Bay Packers230233.2-0.91.121.9
5Jacksonville Jaguars@Pittsburgh Steelers309219.36.6-0.321.3
2New England Patriots@New Orleans Saints3620169.011.1-5.121.1
1Kansas City Chiefs@New England Patriots4227156.09.0-6.021.0
4Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland Browns31724-4.5-10.73.120.9
2Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago Bears29722-2.8-1.82.020.0
11Los Angeles ChargersBuffalo Bills5424302.0-5.110.219.8
9Indianapolis Colts@Houston Texans20146-11.0-0.4-13.719.7
9Los Angeles Rams@New York Giants51173410.6-6.814.419.6
11Philadelphia Eagles@Dallas Cowboys3792811.80.18.719.3
8Dallas Cowboys@Washington Redskins3319140.11.9-4.818.8
2Washington Redskins@Los Angeles Rams272071.910.6-11.718.7
3New York Giants@Philadelphia Eagles2427-3-6.811.8-21.518.5
5Seattle Seahawks@Los Angeles Rams161061.710.6-11.917.9
6Miami Dolphins@Atlanta Falcons20173-9.32.4-14.817.8
3New Orleans Saints@Carolina Panthers34132111.14.33.717.3
8Buffalo BillsOakland Raiders341420-5.1-4.92.817.2
4Green Bay PackersChicago Bears351421-0.9-1.83.817.2
7Chicago BearsCarolina Panthers17314-1.84.3-3.117.1
4Pittsburgh Steelers@Baltimore Ravens269176.63.20.416.6
4Buffalo Bills@Atlanta Falcons23176-5.12.4-10.616.6
11Minnesota VikingsLos Angeles Rams247178.110.60.516.5
2Miami Dolphins@Los Angeles Chargers19172-9.32.0-14.416.4
2Pittsburgh SteelersMinnesota Vikings269176.68.11.415.6
6New York Giants@Denver Broncos231013-6.8-7.2-2.515.5
1Jacksonville Jaguars@Houston Texans297229.3-0.46.715.3
1Baltimore Ravens@Cincinnati Bengals200203.2-4.54.715.3
10Atlanta FalconsDallas Cowboys277202.40.15.314.7
3San Francisco 49ersLos Angeles Rams3941-2-8.910.6-16.514.5
7Los Angeles RamsNArizona Cardinals3303310.6-7.918.514.5
4New York JetsJacksonville Jaguars23203-4.89.3-11.114.1
4Detroit Lions@Minnesota Vikings14774.18.1-7.014.0
9Dallas CowboysKansas City Chiefs2817110.16.0-2.913.9
3Kansas City Chiefs@Los Angeles Chargers2410146.02.01.013.0
1Oakland Raiders@Tennessee Titans261610-4.9-5.1-2.812.8
11New York GiantsKansas City Chiefs1293-6.86.0-9.812.8
1Los Angeles RamsIndianapolis Colts4693710.6-11.024.612.4
4Seattle SeahawksIndianapolis Colts4618281.7-11.015.712.3
10Los Angeles RamsHouston Texans3372610.6-0.414.012.0
9Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ers201010-7.9-8.9-2.012.0
6San Francisco 49ers@Washington Redskins2426-2-8.91.9-13.811.8
10New England Patriots@Denver Broncos4116259.0-7.213.211.8
6Los Angeles Rams@Jacksonville Jaguars27171010.69.3-1.711.7
10Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers1720-3-11.06.6-14.611.6
7Seattle Seahawks@New York Giants247171.7-6.85.511.5
3Chicago BearsPittsburgh Steelers23176-1.86.6-5.311.3
1Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh Steelers1821-3-10.76.6-14.211.2
11New England PatriotsNOakland Raiders338259.0-4.913.911.1
6Chicago Bears@Baltimore Ravens27243-1.83.2-8.011.0
9Detroit Lions@Green Bay Packers3017134.1-0.92.110.9
4Carolina Panthers@New England Patriots333034.39.0-7.610.6
2San Francisco 49ers@Seattle Seahawks912-3-8.91.7-13.610.6
1Minnesota VikingsNew Orleans Saints2919108.111.10.19.9
8Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay Buccaneers173144.3-2.84.29.8
3Tennessee TitansSeattle Seahawks33276-5.11.7-3.89.8
1Carolina Panthers@San Francisco 49ers233204.3-8.910.29.8
2Kansas City ChiefsPhiladelphia Eagles272076.011.8-2.89.8
7Jacksonville Jaguars@Indianapolis Colts270279.3-11.017.39.7
9New York JetsBuffalo Bills342113-4.8-5.13.49.6
3Houston Texans@New England Patriots3336-3-0.49.0-12.39.3
1Denver BroncosLos Angeles Chargers24213-7.22.0-6.39.3
10Green Bay Packers@Chicago Bears23167-0.9-1.8-2.29.2
10San Francisco 49ersNew York Giants312110-8.9-6.80.99.1
11Washington Redskins@New Orleans Saints3134-31.911.1-12.19.1
7Oakland RaidersKansas City Chiefs31301-4.96.0-8.09.0
3Atlanta Falcons@Detroit Lions302642.44.1-4.78.7
7Los Angeles ChargersDenver Broncos210212.0-7.212.38.7
8Indianapolis Colts@Cincinnati Bengals2324-1-11.0-4.5-9.58.5
6Pittsburgh Steelers@Kansas City Chiefs191366.66.0-2.48.4
11Pittsburgh SteelersTennessee Titans4017236.6-5.114.78.3
9Tennessee TitansBaltimore Ravens23203-5.13.2-5.38.3
5Green Bay Packers@Dallas Cowboys35314-0.90.1-4.08.0
5Baltimore Ravens@Oakland Raiders3017133.2-4.95.17.9
8Chicago Bears@New Orleans Saints1220-8-1.811.1-15.87.8
1Green Bay PackersSeattle Seahawks1798-0.91.70.47.6
10Carolina PanthersMiami Dolphins4521244.3-9.316.77.3
10Los Angeles Chargers@Jacksonville Jaguars1720-32.09.3-10.37.3
5Miami DolphinsTennessee Titans16106-9.3-5.1-1.27.2
3Washington RedskinsOakland Raiders2710171.9-4.99.97.1
6Arizona CardinalsTampa Bay Buccaneers38335-7.9-2.8-2.17.1
11Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Miami Dolphins302010-2.8-9.33.56.5
2Buffalo Bills@Carolina Panthers39-6-5.14.3-12.56.5
7New England PatriotsAtlanta Falcons237169.02.49.56.5
3New York JetsMiami Dolphins20614-4.8-9.37.66.4
1Buffalo BillsNew York Jets21129-5.1-4.82.66.4
8Denver Broncos@Kansas City Chiefs1929-10-7.26.0-16.36.3
1Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Redskins30171311.81.96.86.2
1Dallas CowboysNew York Giants193160.1-6.89.96.1
2Detroit Lions@New York Giants2410144.1-6.87.96.1
3Dallas Cowboys@Arizona Cardinals2817110.1-7.95.06.0
9Philadelphia EaglesDenver Broncos51232811.8-7.222.06.0
5Carolina Panthers@Detroit Lions272434.34.1-2.85.8
9Washington Redskins@Seattle Seahawks171431.91.7-2.85.8
8Pittsburgh Steelers@Detroit Lions201556.64.1-0.65.6
4Denver BroncosOakland Raiders16106-7.2-4.90.75.3
11Atlanta Falcons@Seattle Seahawks343132.41.7-2.35.3
6Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts362214-5.1-11.08.95.1
4New York Giants@Tampa Bay Buccaneers2325-2-6.8-2.8-6.94.9
11Cleveland BrownsJacksonville Jaguars719-12-10.79.3-16.94.9
3Buffalo BillsDenver Broncos261610-5.1-7.25.14.9
10Minnesota Vikings@Washington Redskins383088.11.93.24.8
1Atlanta Falcons@Chicago Bears231762.4-1.81.24.8
4Los Angeles ChargersPhiladelphia Eagles2426-22.011.8-6.74.7
5Kansas City Chiefs@Houston Texans423486.0-0.43.44.6
2Atlanta FalconsGreen Bay Packers3423112.4-0.96.44.6
7Miami DolphinsNew York Jets31283-9.3-4.8-1.64.6
5Philadelphia EaglesArizona Cardinals3472711.8-7.922.64.4
6New Orleans SaintsDetroit Lions52381411.14.19.94.1
5Chicago BearsMinnesota Vikings1720-3-1.88.1-6.93.9
10Cleveland Browns@Detroit Lions2438-14-10.74.1-17.83.8
5Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew England Patriots1419-5-2.89.0-8.83.8
6New York JetsNew England Patriots1724-7-4.89.0-10.73.7
3Cincinnati Bengals@Green Bay Packers2427-3-4.5-0.9-6.63.6
11Cincinnati Bengals@Denver Broncos20173-4.5-7.2-0.33.3
9New Orleans SaintsTampa Bay Buccaneers30102011.1-2.816.93.1
3Minnesota VikingsTampa Bay Buccaneers3417178.1-2.813.93.1
1Arizona Cardinals@Detroit Lions2335-12-7.94.1-15.03.0
6Oakland RaidersLos Angeles Chargers1617-1-4.92.0-4.03.0
2Arizona Cardinals@Indianapolis Colts16133-7.9-11.00.22.8
7Washington Redskins@Philadelphia Eagles2434-101.911.8-12.82.8
2Cleveland Browns@Baltimore Ravens1024-14-10.73.2-16.82.8
2Houston Texans@Cincinnati Bengals1394-0.4-4.51.22.8
6Houston TexansCleveland Browns331716-0.4-10.713.32.7
4Dallas CowboysLos Angeles Rams3035-50.110.6-7.52.5
7Buffalo BillsTampa Bay Buccaneers30273-5.1-2.80.72.3
5Indianapolis ColtsSan Francisco 49ers26233-11.0-8.90.92.1
8Houston Texans@Seattle Seahawks3841-3-0.41.7-5.12.1
8Los Angeles Chargers@New England Patriots1321-82.09.0-9.91.9
4Kansas City ChiefsWashington Redskins292096.01.97.11.9
9Atlanta Falcons@Carolina Panthers1720-32.44.3-4.91.9
8Cleveland BrownsNMinnesota Vikings1633-17-10.78.1-18.81.8
9Oakland Raiders@Miami Dolphins27243-4.9-9.31.41.6
10Tennessee TitansCincinnati Bengals24204-5.1-4.52.41.6
4San Francisco 49ers@Arizona Cardinals1518-3-8.9-7.9-4.01.0
6Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay Packers2310138.1-0.912.10.9
7Pittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Bengals2914156.6-4.514.10.9
9Cincinnati Bengals@Jacksonville Jaguars723-16-4.59.3-16.80.8
8Atlanta Falcons@New York Jets252052.4-4.84.20.8
5New York GiantsLos Angeles Chargers2227-5-6.82.0-5.80.8
8San Francisco 49ers@Philadelphia Eagles1033-23-8.911.8-23.70.7
6Philadelphia Eagles@Carolina Panthers2823511.84.34.40.6
10Arizona CardinalsSeattle Seahawks1622-6-7.91.7-6.60.6
11Arizona Cardinals@Houston Texans2131-10-7.9-0.4-10.50.5
7Tennessee Titans@Cleveland Browns1293-5.1-10.72.50.5
5Cincinnati BengalsBuffalo Bills20164-4.5-5.13.60.4
4Miami DolphinsNNew Orleans Saints020-20-9.311.1-20.40.4
3Indianapolis ColtsCleveland Browns31283-11.0-10.72.60.4
5New York Jets@Cleveland Browns17143-4.8-10.72.90.1
11Detroit Lions@Chicago Bears272434.1-1.82.90.1
10Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew York Jets15105-2.8-4.84.90.1
7Minnesota VikingsBaltimore Ravens241688.13.28.00.0
7New Orleans Saints@Green Bay Packers2617911.1-0.99.00.0
7Green Bay PackersNew Orleans Saints1726-9-0.911.1-9.00.0
7Baltimore Ravens@Minnesota Vikings1624-83.28.1-8.00.0
10New York Jets@Tampa Bay Buccaneers1015-5-4.8-2.8-4.9-0.1
11Chicago BearsDetroit Lions2427-3-1.84.1-2.9-0.1
5Cleveland BrownsNew York Jets1417-3-10.7-4.8-2.9-0.1
3Cleveland Browns@Indianapolis Colts2831-3-10.7-11.0-2.6-0.4
4New Orleans SaintsNMiami Dolphins2002011.1-9.320.4-0.4
5Buffalo Bills@Cincinnati Bengals1620-4-5.1-4.5-3.6-0.4
7Cleveland BrownsTennessee Titans912-3-10.7-5.1-2.5-0.5
11Houston TexansArizona Cardinals312110-0.4-7.910.5-0.5
10Seattle Seahawks@Arizona Cardinals221661.7-7.96.6-0.6
6Carolina PanthersPhiladelphia Eagles2328-54.311.8-4.4-0.6
8Philadelphia EaglesSan Francisco 49ers33102311.8-8.923.7-0.7
5Los Angeles Chargers@New York Giants272252.0-6.85.8-0.8
8New York JetsAtlanta Falcons2025-5-4.82.4-4.2-0.8
9Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals237169.3-4.516.8-0.8
7Cincinnati Bengals@Pittsburgh Steelers1429-15-4.56.6-14.1-0.9
6Green Bay Packers@Minnesota Vikings1023-13-0.98.1-12.1-0.9
4Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers18153-7.9-8.94.0-1.0
10Cincinnati Bengals@Tennessee Titans2024-4-4.5-5.1-2.4-1.6
9Miami DolphinsOakland Raiders2427-3-9.3-4.9-1.4-1.6
8Minnesota VikingsNCleveland Browns3316178.1-10.718.8-1.8
9Carolina PanthersAtlanta Falcons201734.32.44.9-1.9
4Washington Redskins@Kansas City Chiefs2029-91.96.0-7.1-1.9
8New England PatriotsLos Angeles Chargers211389.02.09.9-1.9
8Seattle SeahawksHouston Texans413831.7-0.45.1-2.1
5San Francisco 49ers@Indianapolis Colts2326-3-8.9-11.0-0.9-2.1
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Buffalo Bills2730-3-2.8-5.1-0.7-2.3
4Los Angeles Rams@Dallas Cowboys3530510.60.17.5-2.5
6Cleveland Browns@Houston Texans1733-16-10.7-0.4-13.3-2.7
2Cincinnati BengalsHouston Texans913-4-4.5-0.4-1.2-2.8
2Baltimore RavensCleveland Browns2410143.2-10.716.8-2.8
7Philadelphia EaglesWashington Redskins34241011.81.912.8-2.8
2Indianapolis ColtsArizona Cardinals1316-3-11.0-7.9-0.2-2.8
6Los Angeles Chargers@Oakland Raiders171612.0-4.94.0-3.0
1Detroit LionsArizona Cardinals3523124.1-7.915.0-3.0
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Minnesota Vikings1734-17-2.88.1-13.9-3.1
9Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New Orleans Saints1030-20-2.811.1-16.9-3.1
11Denver BroncosCincinnati Bengals1720-3-7.2-4.50.3-3.3
3Green Bay PackersCincinnati Bengals27243-0.9-4.56.6-3.6
6New England Patriots@New York Jets241779.0-4.810.7-3.7
5New England Patriots@Tampa Bay Buccaneers191459.0-2.88.8-3.8
10Detroit LionsCleveland Browns3824144.1-10.717.8-3.8
5Minnesota Vikings@Chicago Bears201738.1-1.86.9-3.9
6Detroit Lions@New Orleans Saints3852-144.111.1-9.9-4.1
5Arizona Cardinals@Philadelphia Eagles734-27-7.911.8-22.6-4.4
7New York Jets@Miami Dolphins2831-3-4.8-9.31.6-4.6
2Green Bay Packers@Atlanta Falcons2334-11-0.92.4-6.4-4.6
5Houston TexansKansas City Chiefs3442-8-0.46.0-3.4-4.6
4Philadelphia Eagles@Los Angeles Chargers2624211.82.06.7-4.7
1Chicago BearsAtlanta Falcons1723-6-1.82.4-1.2-4.8
10Washington RedskinsMinnesota Vikings3038-81.98.1-3.2-4.8
3Denver Broncos@Buffalo Bills1626-10-7.2-5.1-5.1-4.9
11Jacksonville Jaguars@Cleveland Browns197129.3-10.716.9-4.9
4Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew York Giants25232-2.8-6.86.9-4.9
6Indianapolis Colts@Tennessee Titans2236-14-11.0-5.1-8.9-5.1
11Seattle SeahawksAtlanta Falcons3134-31.72.42.3-5.3
4Oakland Raiders@Denver Broncos1016-6-4.9-7.2-0.7-5.3
8Detroit LionsPittsburgh Steelers1520-54.16.60.6-5.6
9Seattle SeahawksWashington Redskins1417-31.71.92.8-5.8
5Detroit LionsCarolina Panthers2427-34.14.32.8-5.8
9Denver Broncos@Philadelphia Eagles2351-28-7.211.8-22.0-6.0
3Arizona CardinalsDallas Cowboys1728-11-7.90.1-5.0-6.0
2New York GiantsDetroit Lions1024-14-6.84.1-7.9-6.1
1New York Giants@Dallas Cowboys319-16-6.80.1-9.9-6.1
1Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia Eagles1730-131.911.8-6.8-6.2
8Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos2919106.0-7.216.3-6.3
1New York Jets@Buffalo Bills1221-9-4.8-5.1-2.6-6.4
3Miami Dolphins@New York Jets620-14-9.3-4.8-7.6-6.4
7Atlanta Falcons@New England Patriots723-162.49.0-9.5-6.5
2Carolina PanthersBuffalo Bills9364.3-5.112.5-6.5
11Miami DolphinsTampa Bay Buccaneers2030-10-9.3-2.8-3.5-6.5
6Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Arizona Cardinals3338-5-2.8-7.92.1-7.1
3Oakland Raiders@Washington Redskins1027-17-4.91.9-9.9-7.1
5Tennessee Titans@Miami Dolphins1016-6-5.1-9.31.2-7.2
10Jacksonville JaguarsLos Angeles Chargers201739.32.010.3-7.3
10Miami Dolphins@Carolina Panthers2145-24-9.34.3-16.7-7.3
1Seattle Seahawks@Green Bay Packers917-81.7-0.9-0.4-7.6
8New Orleans SaintsChicago Bears2012811.1-1.815.8-7.8
5Oakland RaidersBaltimore Ravens1730-13-4.93.2-5.1-7.9
5Dallas CowboysGreen Bay Packers3135-40.1-0.94.0-8.0
9Baltimore Ravens@Tennessee Titans2023-33.2-5.15.3-8.3
11Tennessee Titans@Pittsburgh Steelers1740-23-5.16.6-14.7-8.3
6Kansas City ChiefsPittsburgh Steelers1319-66.06.62.4-8.4
8Cincinnati BengalsIndianapolis Colts24231-4.5-11.09.5-8.5
7Denver Broncos@Los Angeles Chargers021-21-7.22.0-12.3-8.7
3Detroit LionsAtlanta Falcons2630-44.12.44.7-8.7
7Kansas City Chiefs@Oakland Raiders3031-16.0-4.98.0-9.0
11New Orleans SaintsWashington Redskins3431311.11.912.1-9.1
10New York Giants@San Francisco 49ers2131-10-6.8-8.9-0.9-9.1
10Chicago BearsGreen Bay Packers1623-7-1.8-0.92.2-9.2
1Los Angeles Chargers@Denver Broncos2124-32.0-7.26.3-9.3
3New England PatriotsHouston Texans363339.0-0.412.3-9.3
9Buffalo Bills@New York Jets2134-13-5.1-4.8-3.4-9.6
7Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars027-27-11.09.3-17.3-9.7
2Philadelphia Eagles@Kansas City Chiefs2027-711.86.02.8-9.8
1San Francisco 49ersCarolina Panthers323-20-8.94.3-10.2-9.8
3Seattle Seahawks@Tennessee Titans2733-61.7-5.13.8-9.8
8Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers317-14-2.84.3-4.2-9.8
1New Orleans Saints@Minnesota Vikings1929-1011.18.1-0.1-9.9
2Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ers12931.7-8.913.6-10.6
4New England PatriotsCarolina Panthers3033-39.04.37.6-10.6
9Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions1730-13-0.94.1-2.1-10.9
6Baltimore RavensChicago Bears2427-33.2-1.88.0-11.0
11Oakland RaidersNNew England Patriots833-25-4.99.0-13.9-11.1
1Pittsburgh Steelers@Cleveland Browns211836.6-10.714.2-11.2
3Pittsburgh Steelers@Chicago Bears1723-66.6-1.85.3-11.3
7New York GiantsSeattle Seahawks724-17-6.81.7-5.5-11.5
10Pittsburgh Steelers@Indianapolis Colts201736.6-11.014.6-11.6
6Jacksonville JaguarsLos Angeles Rams1727-109.310.61.7-11.7
10Denver BroncosNew England Patriots1641-25-7.29.0-13.2-11.8
6Washington RedskinsSan Francisco 49ers262421.9-8.913.8-11.8
9San Francisco 49ersArizona Cardinals1020-10-8.9-7.92.0-12.0
10Houston Texans@Los Angeles Rams733-26-0.410.6-14.0-12.0
4Indianapolis Colts@Seattle Seahawks1846-28-11.01.7-15.7-12.3
1Indianapolis Colts@Los Angeles Rams946-37-11.010.6-24.6-12.4
11Kansas City Chiefs@New York Giants912-36.0-6.89.8-12.8
1Tennessee TitansOakland Raiders1626-10-5.1-4.92.8-12.8
3Los Angeles ChargersKansas City Chiefs1024-142.06.0-1.0-13.0
9Kansas City Chiefs@Dallas Cowboys1728-116.00.12.9-13.9
4Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions714-78.14.17.0-14.0
4Jacksonville Jaguars@New York Jets2023-39.3-4.811.1-14.1
7Arizona CardinalsNLos Angeles Rams033-33-7.910.6-18.5-14.5
3Los Angeles Rams@San Francisco 49ers4139210.6-8.916.5-14.5
10Dallas Cowboys@Atlanta Falcons727-200.12.4-5.3-14.7
1Cincinnati BengalsBaltimore Ravens020-20-4.53.2-4.7-15.3
1Houston TexansJacksonville Jaguars729-22-0.49.3-6.7-15.3
6Denver BroncosNew York Giants1023-13-7.2-6.82.5-15.5
2Minnesota Vikings@Pittsburgh Steelers926-178.16.6-1.4-15.6
2Los Angeles ChargersMiami Dolphins1719-22.0-9.314.4-16.4
11Los Angeles Rams@Minnesota Vikings724-1710.68.1-0.5-16.5
4Atlanta FalconsBuffalo Bills1723-62.4-5.110.6-16.6
4Baltimore RavensPittsburgh Steelers926-173.26.6-0.4-16.6
7Carolina Panthers@Chicago Bears317-144.3-1.83.1-17.1
4Chicago Bears@Green Bay Packers1435-21-1.8-0.9-3.8-17.2
8Oakland Raiders@Buffalo Bills1434-20-4.9-5.1-2.8-17.2
3Carolina PanthersNew Orleans Saints1334-214.311.1-3.7-17.3
6Atlanta FalconsMiami Dolphins1720-32.4-9.314.8-17.8
5Los Angeles RamsSeattle Seahawks1016-610.61.711.9-17.9
3Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants2724311.8-6.821.5-18.5
2Los Angeles RamsWashington Redskins2027-710.61.911.7-18.7
8Washington RedskinsDallas Cowboys1933-141.90.14.8-18.8
11Dallas CowboysPhiladelphia Eagles937-280.111.8-8.7-19.3
9New York GiantsLos Angeles Rams1751-34-6.810.6-14.4-19.6
9Houston TexansIndianapolis Colts1420-6-0.4-11.013.7-19.7
11Buffalo Bills@Los Angeles Chargers2454-30-5.12.0-10.2-19.8
2Chicago Bears@Tampa Bay Buccaneers729-22-1.8-2.8-2.0-20.0
4Cleveland BrownsCincinnati Bengals731-24-10.7-4.5-3.1-20.9
1New England PatriotsKansas City Chiefs2742-159.06.06.0-21.0
2New Orleans SaintsNew England Patriots2036-1611.19.05.1-21.1
5Pittsburgh SteelersJacksonville Jaguars930-216.69.30.3-21.3
11Green Bay PackersBaltimore Ravens023-23-0.93.2-1.1-21.9
2New York Jets@Oakland Raiders2045-25-4.8-4.9-2.8-22.2
10Buffalo BillsNew Orleans Saints1047-37-5.111.1-13.2-23.8
7San Francisco 49ersDallas Cowboys1040-30-8.90.1-6.0-24.0
8Miami Dolphins@Baltimore Ravens040-40-9.33.2-15.5-24.5
2Dallas Cowboys@Denver Broncos1742-250.1-7.24.3-29.3
3Baltimore RavensNJacksonville Jaguars744-373.29.3-6.1-30.9
4Tennessee Titans@Houston Texans1457-43-5.1-0.4-7.8-35.2
2Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee Titans1637-219.3-5.117.4-38.4

Here are the individual SRS ratings, along with each team’s “variance” in their 10 games. This is simple the average amount by which their games differed from the expected result. The three most inconsistent teams this year have been the Jaguars, Cowboys, and Rams, while the Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns have been the three most consistent teams. Take that, consistency-worshipers!

Var RkSRS RkTeamGMOVSOSSRSVariance
251Philadelphia Eagles1013.2-1.411.87.3
154New Orleans Saints1010.30.811.19.7
33Los Angeles Rams1012.0-1.410.614.0
12Jacksonville Jaguars1010.7-1.49.315.4
115New England Patriots108.40.69.010.1
266Minnesota Vikings106.02.18.17.0
67Pittsburgh Steelers106.8-0.26.611.1
128Kansas City Chiefs104.81.26.010.1
199Carolina Panthers103.31.04.38.7
2810Detroit Lions103.70.44.16.2
411Baltimore Ravens104.5-1.33.213.9
2413Atlanta Falcons102.7-0.32.48.2
2014Los Angeles Chargers102.5-0.52.08.5
1812Washington Redskins10-2.84.71.98.7
2315Seattle Seahawks104.3-2.61.78.3
217Dallas Cowboys100.00.10.114.3
916Houston Texans10-0.1-0.3-0.410.4
2218Green Bay Packers10-3.22.3-0.98.4
1019Chicago Bears10-5.33.5-1.810.2
2920Tampa Bay Buccaneers10-2.5-0.3-2.86.1
3022Cincinnati Bengals10-2.4-2.1-4.55.8
2723New York Jets10-2.1-2.7-4.86.8
1425Oakland Raiders10-4.0-0.9-4.99.7
521Tennessee Titans10-3.1-2.0-5.112.7
724Buffalo Bills10-4.2-0.9-5.110.7
826New York Giants10-8.51.7-6.810.5
1327Denver Broncos10-8.21.0-7.210.0
3128Arizona Cardinals10-7.5-0.4-7.95.2
1630San Francisco 49ers10-8.6-0.3-8.99.6
1729Miami Dolphins10-9.40.1-9.39.3
3231Cleveland Browns10-11.20.5-10.74.9
2132Indianapolis Colts10-10.1-0.9-11.08.4

What stands out to you?