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The best and worst passing games of 2013

by Chase Stuart on June 18, 2014

in Passing, Quarterbacks, SRS, Statgeekery

The top passing game of 2013

The top passing game of 2013.

Yesterday, I analyzed the 2013 passing numbers for strength of schedule. Today, we look at the best and worst games of the year, from the perspectives of both the quarterbacks and the defenses.

Let’s start with the top 100 passing games from 2014. The top spot belongs to Philadelphia’s Nick Foles, for his monstrous performance against Oakland. Foles threw for 406 yards and 7 touchdowns on just 28 pass attempts. Even including his one one-yard sack, Foles averaged a whopping 18.79 ANY/A in that game. The league-average last season was 5.86 ANY/A, which means Foles was 12.93 ANY/A above average. Now since the game came against the Raiders, we have to reduce that by -1.29, which was how many ANY/A the Raiders defense was below average. So that puts Foles at +11.64; multiply that by his 29 dropbacks, and he produced 337 adjusted net yards of value above average after adjusting for strength of schedule. That narrowly edges out the other seven-touchdown game of 2013, which came at the hands of Peyton Manning against Baltimore on opening night.

The third spot goes to Drew Brees in a week 17 performance against Tampa Bay. The 4th best game of 2013 was a bit more memorable: Tony Romo takes that prize in a losing effort, the insane week five shootout against Manning and the Broncos (Peyton’s performance checks in at #32). The table below shows the top 100 games of 2013, although for viewing purposes, it displays only the top 10 by default (all tables, as usual, are fully searchable, expandable, and sortable).

1Nick FolesOAK9Boxscore28406701118.79-1.29337
2Peyton ManningBAL1Boxscore4246270317130.24332
3Drew BreesTAM17Boxscore313814011114.060.39275
4Tony RomoDEN5Boxscore365065143613.13-0.55268
5Drew BreesMIA4Boxscore394134021611.630.65263
6Tom BradyPIT9Boxscore334324031913.69-0.55262
7Aaron RodgersWAS2Boxscore424804043911.33-0.38234
8Drew BreesBUF8Boxscore343325042310.761.07227
9Philip RiversKAN12Boxscore39392301511.180.14218
10Alex SmithOAK15Boxscore202875021217.05-1.29218
11Peyton ManningKAN13Boxscore35403520011.80.14213
12Andrew LuckCIN14Boxscore4632640008.831.49205
13Russell WilsonNOR13Boxscore30310301811.680.71202
14Andy DaltonDET7Boxscore34372301812.11-0.51201
15Jay CutlerNOR5Boxscore333582031810.560.71194
16Matthew StaffordCIN7Boxscore5135730008.181.49194
17Matt RyanTAM7Boxscore26273300012.810.39191
18Case KeenumIND9Boxscore343503011011.43-0.12191
19Drew BreesCAR14Boxscore4231340298.731.47191
20Jason CampbellNWE14Boxscore4439130159.910.02183
21Andy DaltonNYJ8Boxscore30325511212.19-0.56179
22Colin KaepernickGNB1Boxscore39412302811.32-1.1178
23Drew BreesDAL10Boxscore41392401911.02-0.99175
24Michael VickSDG2Boxscore364282021711.87-1.41175
25Nick FolesTAM6Boxscore31296301910.840.39172
26Colin KaepernickARI17Boxscore34310202189.221.37170
27Ben RoethlisbergerMIA14Boxscore39349303219.240.65169
28Peyton ManningPHI4Boxscore34327401611.46-0.78168
29Josh McCownDAL14Boxscore36348401711.38-0.99168
30Russell WilsonCAR1Boxscore33320102209.141.47166
31Kellen ClemensIND10Boxscore162472021515.11-0.12164
32Peyton ManningDAL5Boxscore42414410010.69-0.99161
33Peyton ManningOAK3Boxscore37374301211.37-1.29160
34Carson PalmerSFO17Boxscore4940721187.881.17159
35Peyton ManningHOU16Boxscore5140040139.17-0.31156
36Andy DaltonMIN16Boxscore383634021810.63-0.9155
37Philip RiversPHI2Boxscore4741930169.85-0.78154
38Aaron RodgersSFO1Boxscore37333312118.641.17154
39Andrew LuckSEA5Boxscore292292022182.76152
40Peyton ManningTEN14Boxscore5939740008.080.33151
41Matthew StaffordARI2Boxscore3627820158.461.37147
42Ben RoethlisbergerDET11Boxscore4536740199.52-0.51145
43Philip RiversNYG14Boxscore28249302510.130.47142
44Geno SmithBUF3Boxscore2933122009.691.07142
45Russell WilsonMIN11Boxscore18230201613.89-0.9136
46Matt RyanSTL2Boxscore43374202178.82-0.07130
47Peyton ManningOAK17Boxscore28266401911.62-1.29129
48Andy DaltonBUF6Boxscore40337313197.741.07127
49Andy DaltonIND14Boxscore3527530009.57-0.12126
50Colin KaepernickWAS12Boxscore24235302711.08-0.38126
51Russell WilsonARI7Boxscore29235303268.411.37125
52Nick FolesGNB10Boxscore182283031712.9-1.1125
53Carson PalmerJAX11Boxscore42419203179.82-1.21124
54Sam BradfordARI1Boxscore3829921007.741.37123
55Tom BradyATL4Boxscore31316200011.48-1.7122
56Matt CasselPIT4Boxscore25248201011.08-0.55121
57Peyton ManningSDG10Boxscore363304021710.34-1.41117
58Peyton ManningNYG2Boxscore4330720008.070.47115
59Russell WilsonATL10Boxscore26287201811.81-1.7115
60Tony RomoSTL3Boxscore24210301710.52-0.07115
61Josh McCownMIN13Boxscore36355204109.63-0.9115
62Philip RiversDAL4Boxscore4240131179.51-0.99114
63Peyton ManningKAN11Boxscore4032310008.580.14114
64Cam NewtonNYJ15Boxscore242731021210.81-0.56114
65Cam NewtonMIN6Boxscore26242301610.96-0.9113
66Matt CasselPHI15Boxscore35382213129.61-0.78113
67Aaron RodgersMIN8Boxscore29285202310.39-0.9112
68Jason CampbellKAN8Boxscore36293201108.730.14111
69Matt SchaubSEA4Boxscore49355224305.192.76110
70Ryan FitzpatrickARI15Boxscore5840242386.31.37110
71Drew BreesARI3Boxscore46342314236.681.37109
72Ryan TannehillNWE15Boxscore37312304238.510.02109
73Jay CutlerNYG6Boxscore3626220008.390.47108
74Brian HoyerCIN4Boxscore382692032271.49108
75Philip RiversJAX7Boxscore26285101910.96-1.21105
76Matthew StaffordWAS3Boxscore4238521178.67-0.38104
77Aaron RodgersCLE7Boxscore3626030178.460.19103
78Mike GlennonSEA9Boxscore23168203257.042.76102
79Drew BreesCHI5Boxscore3528820158.97-0.29101
80Tom BradyHOU13Boxscore4137121168.57-0.31101
81Robert GriffinCHI7Boxscore2929821189.5-0.29100
82Nick FolesCHI16Boxscore2523020259.81-0.2999
83EJ ManuelNYJ11Boxscore2824520109.83-0.5699
84Jason CampbellBAL9Boxscore35262302188.220.2496
85Kellen ClemensNOR15Boxscore2015820009.90.7195
86Nick FolesWAS11Boxscore26298003229.52-0.3895
87Nick FolesNYG5Boxscore25197201390.4794
88Colin KaepernickARI6Boxscore29252212147.521.3794
89Jay CutlerCIN1Boxscore3324221007.181.4993
90Tarvaris JacksonJAX3Boxscore8129100018.63-1.2192
91Aaron RodgersDET5Boxscore3027410159.32-0.5191
92Matt CasselBAL14Boxscore3826520008.030.2491
93Carson PalmerIND12Boxscore37314203248.25-0.1291
94Mike GlennonDET12Boxscore21247204409.88-0.5188
95Cam NewtonSTL7Boxscore172041022410.53-0.0787
96Nick FolesARI13Boxscore34237305356.721.3787
97Jake LockerSFO7Boxscore41326213286.661.1787
98Carson PalmerSTL14Boxscore3226910178.55-0.0786
99EJ ManuelCAR2Boxscore3929611196.551.4786
100Josh McCownWAS7Boxscore20204101710.33-0.3886

What about the worst games of the year? Blaine Gabbert narrowly edges out EJ Manuel for the worst performance of 2013. Hooray? Gabbert gained just 71 net yards on 41 dropbacks against the Chiefs in week one — and threw two interceptions — giving him an ANY/A of -0.46. That gave Gabbert a Relative ANY/A of -6.32 for that game; the Chiefs had a slightly tougher than average defense, so his SOS-adjusted RANY/A moves up to -6.18. Over 41 dropbacks, that means Gabbert produced 254 Adusted Net Yards below average, after adjusting for strength of schedule.

Manuel’s performance against Tampa Bay was nearly as bad. He gained more yards, but threw four interceptions against the Bucs, giving him an ANY/A of -0.83. He had an SOS-adjusted RANY/A of -6.3, but with one fewer dropback, he gets a score of -252 for that game. The table below shows the worst 100 games of the year.

1Blaine GabbertKAN1Boxscore3512102650-0.460.14-254
2EJ ManuelTAM14Boxscore3318404737-0.830.39-252
3Kirk CousinsNYG17Boxscore4916902391.350.47-210
4Terrelle PryorKAN6Boxscore34216139630.880.14-208
5Brandon WeedenGNB7Boxscore42149113162.4-1.1-205
6Joe FlaccoMIN14Boxscore50245332172.94-0.9-199
7Eli ManningSEA15Boxscore3115605324-2.742.76-199
8Jason CampbellNYJ16Boxscore40178023101.81-0.56-198
9Geno SmithBUF11Boxscore2310303430-2.31.07-191
10Matt RyanARI8Boxscore61301144361.621.37-187
11Ben RoethlisbergerOAK8Boxscore45275125343.42-1.29-187
12Ryan TannehillNWE8Boxscore42192226471.980.02-186
13Blaine GabbertIND4Boxscore32179034140.83-0.12-185
14Case KeenumIND15Boxscore34168024361.11-0.12-185
15Brandon WeedenMIA1Boxscore53289136452.190.65-179
16Robert GriffinDEN8Boxscore30132123261.09-0.55-176
17Geno SmithNWE2Boxscore35214034251.380.02-174
18Matt SchaubDEN16Boxscore37176123232.08-0.55-174
19Ryan TannehillNYJ17Boxscore4020413002.23-0.56-168
20Joe FlaccoCIN17Boxscore50192132171.151.49-168
21Andy DaltonBAL10Boxscore51274235302.660.24-166
22Brian HoyerMIN3Boxscore54321333263.86-0.9-165
23EJ ManuelPIT10Boxscore39155113232.55-0.55-162
24Tom BradyNYJ7Boxscore46228014233.2-0.56-161
25Josh FreemanNYG7Boxscore53190011142.430.47-160
26Case KeenumJAX12Boxscore34169012282.67-1.21-158
27Ryan FitzpatrickIND13Boxscore37201131161.84-0.12-157
28Matt CasselCIN16Boxscore2711413420-0.681.49-157
29Nick FolesDAL7Boxscore2980003152.03-0.99-154
30Sam BradfordDAL3Boxscore48240106434.02-0.99-153
31Jason CampbellCIN11Boxscore56248134201.881.49-150
32Geno SmithPIT6Boxscore34201023172.54-0.55-143
33Matt BarkleyDAL7Boxscore201290300-0.3-0.99-143
34Terrelle PryorPIT8Boxscore19880226-0.38-0.55-143
35Joe FlaccoDEN1Boxscore62362224274.32-0.55-138
36Alex SmithOAK6Boxscore31128003233.09-1.29-138
37Matt SchaubSFO5Boxscore3517303160.891.17-137
38Joe FlaccoCHI11Boxscore31162123192.15-0.29-136
39Andy DaltonMIA9Boxscore53338035362.880.65-135
40Carson PalmerNOR3Boxscore35187024261.820.71-130
41Jay CutlerDET4Boxscore47317233313.82-0.51-128
42Eli ManningDEN2Boxscore4936214193.86-0.55-128
43Russell WilsonHOU4Boxscore23123015321.64-0.31-127
44Ryan TannehillBUF16Boxscore2782007461.061.07-127
45Geno SmithBAL12Boxscore22127023220.60.24-126
46Joe FlaccoCIN10Boxscore36140225361.321.49-125
47Colin KaepernickSEA2Boxscore2812703320-0.92.76-124
48Joe FlaccoBUF4Boxscore50347254262.521.07-123
49Christian PonderCLE3Boxscore42228016333.130.19-122
50Colin KaepernickCAR10Boxscore2291016450.041.47-122
51Matthew StaffordNYG16Boxscore42222022152.660.47-120
52Terrelle PryorPHI9Boxscore41288023253.93-0.78-119
53Robert GriffinSFO12Boxscore26118016420.971.17-119
54Eli ManningPHI5Boxscore5233423144.43-0.78-117
55Robert GriffinDAL6Boxscore39246013294.1-0.99-116
56Cam NewtonATL9Boxscore3724912174.53-1.7-115
57Matt FlynnDET13Boxscore20139017372.11-0.51-115
58Jay CutlerPHI16Boxscore35222115463.78-0.78-115
59Ryan TannehillATL3Boxscore35236215414.75-1.7-112
60T.J. YatesSTL6Boxscore179802270.05-0.07-112
61Alex SmithIND16Boxscore28153015212.64-0.12-110
62Michael VickKAN3Boxscore30201126342.690.14-109
63Matt McGloinSDG16Boxscore3620601104.35-1.41-108
64Geno SmithCIN8Boxscore30159023281.241.49-103
65Eli ManningCAR3Boxscore23119017450.971.47-103
66Tony RomoPHI7Boxscore47317122234.57-0.78-102
67Terrelle PryorNYG10Boxscore26122014162.030.47-101
68Jeff TuelCLE5Boxscore2080012111.090.19-101
69Joe FlaccoNWE16Boxscore38260024253.450.02-101
70Ryan TannehillNOR4Boxscore35249134332.590.71-100
71Kirk CousinsDEN8Boxscore9480200-4.67-0.55-100
72Mike GlennonARI4Boxscore43193122202.291.37-99
73Seneca WallaceCHI9Boxscore19114014251.91-0.29-98
74Matt SimmsMIA13Boxscore1879013220.570.65-97
75Matthew StaffordTAM12Boxscore46297342113.460.39-97
76Peyton ManningNWE12Boxscore36150212183.340.02-95
77Mike GlennonBUF14Boxscore259022191.191.07-94
78EJ ManuelNYJ3Boxscore42243108354.56-0.56-93
79Jason CampbellPIT17Boxscore41240113264.3-0.55-93
80Matt RyanWAS15Boxscore38210113214-0.38-92
81Andrew LuckSTL10Boxscore47353133334.1-0.07-92
82Andy DaltonCLE4Boxscore4220601233.590.19-92
83Andy DaltonCLE11Boxscore279332002.330.19-90
84Andrew LuckTEN13Boxscore32200015403.110.33-90
85Mike GlennonATL7Boxscore44256203305.66-1.7-89
86Matt SchaubBAL3Boxscore35194013243.290.24-89
87Ryan FitzpatrickKAN5Boxscore41247123133.730.14-88
88Christian PonderDET1Boxscore28236133113.55-0.51-88
89Robert GriffinPHI1Boxscore49329223214.96-0.78-87
90Carson PalmerCAR5Boxscore28175132151.51.47-87
91Eli ManningOAK10Boxscore22140113223.72-1.29-86
92Colin KaepernickIND3Boxscore27150013113.13-0.12-86
93Mike GlennonSTL16Boxscore26158007473.36-0.07-85
94Jake LockerJAX10Boxscore9240100-2.33-1.21-85
95Case KeenumJAX14Boxscore2915911164.27-1.21-84
96Curtis PainterWAS17Boxscore8110100-4.25-0.38-84
97Cam NewtonARI5Boxscore39308037502.671.37-84
98Matt CasselDET17Boxscore33189113184.06-0.51-84
99Matt FlynnATL14Boxscore32258115365.32-1.7-83
100Matthew StaffordBAL15Boxscore3423513153.290.24-82

One last note on the worst games: I would have thought Ryan Tannehill’s game against Buffalo — one of the worst ever — would have been higher on the list. But it’s only #44 on the list, and not even the worst Tannehill game in the final two weeks of the season. There are two reasons for that: one, the Buffalo defense was pretty darn good. And two, while Tannehill’s game was miserable from a “move the ball” standpoint, he had no interceptions. That helps him out in ANY/A (the original post looked at NY/A), but it remains one of the worst games by a quarterback without throwing a pick.

What about the top defensive game of the year? This one’s easy: it came out of the NFC West, but not from either of the teams you’re thinking of. Matt Ryan had a better season than people realize, but he did have one outlier game that was a real stinker: against Arizona, he had 65 dropbacks but gained just 265 yards and threw four interceptions. The Cardinals defense was outstanding that day, limiting Ryan to just 1.62 ANY/A. And since Ryan was an above average quarterback in 2013, that gave Arizona’s pass defense a value of +308, the best single-game performance of the year. Seahawks fans, calm down: they do claim two of the next three spots on the list.

1ARIMatt Ryan8Boxscore61301144361.620.5308
2SEAColin Kaepernick2Boxscore2812703320-0.91.27249
3CINAaron Rodgers3Boxscore43244124273.132.32238
4SEAEli Manning15Boxscore3115605324-2.74-1.75233
5CARDrew Brees16Boxscore44281126423.382.02225
6TAMEJ Manuel14Boxscore3318404737-0.83-1.2219
7DALNick Foles7Boxscore2980003152.032.96217
8CINJason Campbell11Boxscore56248134201.88-0.45212
9CINMatt Cassel16Boxscore2711413420-0.680.14207
10CARColin Kaepernick10Boxscore2291016450.041.27199
11BALAndy Dalton10Boxscore51274235302.660.3196
12NWEPeyton Manning12Boxscore36150212183.342.57193
13MIAAndy Dalton9Boxscore53338035362.880.3190
14BUFGeno Smith11Boxscore2310303430-2.3-1.4183
15SEACarson Palmer7Boxscore45258127542.580.22183
16CINJoe Flacco17Boxscore50192132171.15-1.34175
17STLDrew Brees15Boxscore56393124225.022.02172
18SEAKellen Clemens8Boxscore31158023191.440.55169
19TAMDrew Brees2Boxscore46322124264.522.02168
20NORCarson Palmer3Boxscore35187024261.820.22166
21ARIRussell Wilson16Boxscore27108114192.061.56166
22HOURussell Wilson4Boxscore23123015321.641.56162
23NYJTom Brady7Boxscore46228014233.20.51159
24NYGMatthew Stafford16Boxscore42222022152.660.37157
25SEACarson Palmer16Boxscore25178142100.30.22156
26INDCase Keenum15Boxscore34168024361.11-0.66156
27NYJJason Campbell16Boxscore40178023101.81-0.45155
28ARICam Newton5Boxscore39308037502.670.17155
29KANBlaine Gabbert1Boxscore3512102650-0.46-2.67150
30NWERyan Tannehill8Boxscore42192226471.98-0.77150
31CINTom Brady5Boxscore38197014312.880.51147
32INDRyan Fitzpatrick13Boxscore37201131161.84-0.21145
33SEADrew Brees13Boxscore3814710134.212.02144
34OAKBen Roethlisberger8Boxscore45275125343.420.38141
35ARIMike Glennon4Boxscore43193122202.29-0.46140
36CARCarson Palmer5Boxscore28175132151.50.22138
37KANMichael Vick3Boxscore30201126342.690.65138
38SFOMatt Schaub5Boxscore3517303160.89-1.16137
39CARMatt Cassel6Boxscore44241123263.090.14137
40BUFRyan Tannehill16Boxscore2782007461.06-0.77137
41TAMMatthew Stafford12Boxscore46297342113.460.37133
42NORColin Kaepernick11Boxscore31127213123.241.27133
43ARIKellen Clemens14Boxscore27181024242.160.55132
44CINJoe Flacco10Boxscore36140225361.32-1.34131
45SEAKellen Clemens17Boxscore30157122122.340.55130
46SFOSam Bradford4Boxscore41202115323.150.09129
47SFORobert Griffin12Boxscore26118016420.97-0.94127
48DENRobert Griffin8Boxscore30132123261.09-0.94127
49MIABrandon Weeden1Boxscore53289136452.19-1.57124
50NWEGeno Smith2Boxscore35214034251.38-1.4120
51INDColin Kaepernick3Boxscore27150013113.131.27120
52KANTerrelle Pryor6Boxscore34216139630.88-2.24118
53SFOCam Newton10Boxscore32169013282.740.17115
54NYJRyan Tannehill17Boxscore4020413002.23-0.77115
55TENAndrew Luck13Boxscore32200015403.110.34114
56ARIAndrew Luck12Boxscore3916311143.350.34114
57SEARyan Fitzpatrick6Boxscore29171023142.09-0.21114
58MIACam Newton12Boxscore38174113153.270.17113
59CLEAndy Dalton4Boxscore4220601233.590.3113
60DETJay Cutler4Boxscore47317233313.820.19112
61BUFMike Glennon14Boxscore259022191.19-0.46110
62BUFJoe Flacco4Boxscore50347254262.52-1.34108
63CINGeno Smith8Boxscore30159023281.24-1.4106
64DENMatt Schaub16Boxscore37176123232.08-1.16105
65STLAndrew Luck10Boxscore47353133334.10.34105
66NORCam Newton14Boxscore34160105493.360.17104
67DALSam Bradford3Boxscore48240106434.020.09104
68WASPeyton Manning8Boxscore44354432156.172.57104
69CLEAndy Dalton11Boxscore279332002.330.3103
70BALMatthew Stafford15Boxscore3423513153.290.37103
71NYJDrew Brees9Boxscore51382222165.962.02102
72TENBen Roethlisberger1Boxscore33191115283.630.3899
73CLEBen Roethlisberger17Boxscore3117912173.190.3898
74NORRyan Tannehill4Boxscore35249134332.59-0.7798
75WASMatt Ryan15Boxscore382101132140.597
76BALGeno Smith12Boxscore22127023220.6-1.497
77NORTom Brady6Boxscore43269115344.380.5196
78INDAlex Smith16Boxscore28153015212.64-0.3794
79CAREli Manning3Boxscore23119017450.97-1.7594
80NYGMichael Vick8Boxscore93001112-2.70.6592
81PHIJay Cutler16Boxscore35222115463.780.1991
82JAXCase Keenum12Boxscore34169012282.67-0.6691
83SEAColin Kaepernick14Boxscore29175112204.191.2791
84NYGKirk Cousins17Boxscore4916902391.35-2.7791
85PITEJ Manuel10Boxscore39155113232.55-1.289
86BUFCam Newton2Boxscore38229216464.050.1788
87MIAThaddeus Lewis7Boxscore32202014243.690.2186
88CARMatt Ryan17Boxscore40280219494.610.586
89SEAChad Henne3Boxscore38235023213.02-0.7685
90GNBBrandon Weeden7Boxscore42149113162.4-1.5785
91MINBrian Hoyer3Boxscore54321333263.86-0.5185
92INDBlaine Gabbert4Boxscore32179034140.83-2.6785
93KANRyan Fitzpatrick5Boxscore41247123133.73-0.2185
94MIATom Brady8Boxscore221161131630.5184
95PITTerrelle Pryor8Boxscore19880226-0.38-2.2484
96SFOKellen Clemens13Boxscore37218113204.330.5583
97BUFTom Brady1Boxscore52288213154.870.5182
98SDGPeyton Manning15Boxscore41289211126.482.5782
99MINJoe Flacco14Boxscore50245332172.94-1.3482
100CARMatt Ryan9Boxscore2721913183.430.582

Finally, the worst 100 games on the list, with a footnote.1

1OAKNick Foles9Boxscore28406701118.792.96-289
2DENTony Romo5Boxscore365065143613.130.25-281
3PITTom Brady9Boxscore334324031913.690.51-264
4OAKAlex Smith15Boxscore202875021217.05-0.37-254
5INDCase Keenum9Boxscore343503011011.43-0.66-218
6DETAndy Dalton7Boxscore34372301812.110.3-208
7BALPeyton Manning1Boxscore4246270317132.57-205
8SDGMichael Vick2Boxscore364282021711.870.65-203
9NWEJason Campbell14Boxscore4439130159.91-0.45-202
10ATLKirk Cousins15Boxscore4538132187.46-2.77-201
11TAMDrew Brees17Boxscore313814011114.062.02-198
12DALEli Manning1Boxscore42450433228.29-1.75-188
13NYJAndy Dalton8Boxscore30325511212.190.3-187
14MINAndy Dalton16Boxscore383634021810.630.3-179
15GNBJoe Flacco6Boxscore34342205299.05-1.34-177
16GNBColin Kaepernick1Boxscore39412302811.321.27-171
17JAXCarson Palmer11Boxscore42419203179.820.22-168
18TAMMatt Ryan7Boxscore26273300012.810.5-168
19DENTerrelle Pryor3Boxscore28281103238.97-2.24-166
20NORJay Cutler5Boxscore333582031810.560.19-162
21PHIKyle Orton17Boxscore4635822006.7-2.67-161
22ATLTom Brady4Boxscore31316200011.480.51-158
23INDKellen Clemens10Boxscore162472021515.110.55-157
24MIADrew Brees4Boxscore394134021611.632.02-154
25BUFGeno Smith3Boxscore2933122009.69-1.4-151
26DETBen Roethlisberger11Boxscore4536740199.520.38-151
27NYJEJ Manuel11Boxscore2824520109.83-1.2-150
28KANPhilip Rivers12Boxscore39392301511.181.65-147
29WASAaron Rodgers2Boxscore424804043911.332.32-144
30NWERyan Tannehill15Boxscore37312304238.51-0.77-140
31CHIRobert Griffin7Boxscore2929821189.5-0.94-137
32SDGTerrelle Pryor5Boxscore23221204268.7-2.24-137
33PHIMatt Cassel15Boxscore35382213129.610.14-137
34DALMatt Flynn15Boxscore39299412167.76-1.38-134
35MINCam Newton6Boxscore26242301610.960.17-133
36NORRussell Wilson13Boxscore30310301811.681.56-132
37DALDrew Brees10Boxscore41392401911.022.02-132
38PITMatt Cassel4Boxscore25248201011.080.14-132
39ATLMike Glennon11Boxscore23231202710.56-0.46-129
40JAXBrandon Weeden13Boxscore40370323287.26-1.57-127
41GNBRobert Griffin2Boxscore4032031168.02-0.94-127
42MIABen Roethlisberger14Boxscore39349303219.240.38-126
43DALJosh McCown14Boxscore36348401711.382.12-126
44NYJCam Newton15Boxscore242731021210.810.17-124
45JAXTarvaris Jackson3Boxscore8129100018.63-2.67-123
46MINRussell Wilson11Boxscore18230201613.891.56-123
47ATLGeno Smith5Boxscore20199304299.58-1.4-123
48SDGMatt Schaub1Boxscore45346312177.32-1.16-123
49KANJason Campbell8Boxscore36293201108.73-0.45-123
50CINAndrew Luck14Boxscore4632640008.830.34-121
51INDAndy Dalton14Boxscore3527530009.570.3-119
52ATLRussell Wilson10Boxscore26287201811.811.56-119
53INDRyan Tannehill2Boxscore34319105228.13-0.77-118
54KANPeyton Manning13Boxscore35403520011.82.57-118
55PHIPhilip Rivers2Boxscore4741930169.851.65-113
56DETMike Glennon12Boxscore21247204409.88-0.46-112
57OAKPeyton Manning3Boxscore37374301211.372.57-112
58STLMatt Ryan2Boxscore43374202178.820.5-111
59STLTony Romo3Boxscore24210301710.520.25-110
60BUFDrew Brees8Boxscore343325042310.762.02-109
61SDGChase Daniel17Boxscore30200102116.53-2.67-107
62PHIPeyton Manning4Boxscore34327401611.462.57-106
63WASMatthew Stafford3Boxscore4238521178.670.37-105
64DALMatthew Stafford8Boxscore4848812188.370.37-104
65BALJason Campbell9Boxscore35262302188.22-0.45-104
66OAKRyan Fitzpatrick12Boxscore4232020288-0.21-103
67JAXRyan Fitzpatrick10Boxscore3326420198.68-0.21-103
68WASColin Kaepernick12Boxscore24235302711.081.27-102
69MINRobert Griffin10Boxscore37281304397.37-0.94-100
70CINMatthew Stafford7Boxscore5135730008.180.37-99
71NYJRyan Tannehill13Boxscore4333121137.34-0.77-99
72NYGScott Tolzien11Boxscore3433903006-2.67-95
73DALPeyton Manning5Boxscore42414410010.692.57-95
74JAXPhilip Rivers7Boxscore26285101910.961.65-93
75CLEGeno Smith16Boxscore3621420007.06-1.4-93
76OAKPeyton Manning17Boxscore28266401911.622.57-92
77HOUTom Brady13Boxscore4137121168.570.51-92
78SDGJake Locker3Boxscore37299102177.74-0.45-91
79PITJoe Flacco13Boxscore35251102146.95-1.34-90
80SFOCarson Palmer17Boxscore4940721187.880.22-90
81SDGRobert Griffin9Boxscore3229101007.69-0.94-88
82INDCarson Palmer12Boxscore37314203248.250.22-87
83DALPhilip Rivers4Boxscore4240131179.511.65-86
84DENTerrelle Pryor17Boxscore38207202165.78-2.24-86
85GNBNick Foles10Boxscore182283031712.92.96-86
86STLCam Newton7Boxscore172041022410.530.17-85
87KANCase Keenum7Boxscore25271105508.03-0.66-85
88NYJJoe Flacco12Boxscore26273114287.33-1.34-84
89NYGJay Cutler6Boxscore3626220008.390.19-84
90MINMatthew Stafford1Boxscore4335721008.190.37-84
91NYJRyan Fitzpatrick4Boxscore8108100016-0.21-83
92DETTony Romo8Boxscore3020630008.870.25-83
93ARIMatthew Stafford2Boxscore3627820158.460.37-82
94HOUSam Bradford6Boxscore16117300011.060.09-82
95STLCarson Palmer14Boxscore3226910178.550.22-81
96ATLEJ Manuel13Boxscore3221010007.19-1.2-81
97OAKRobert Griffin4Boxscore31227101107.41-0.94-79
98NYGPhilip Rivers14Boxscore28249302510.131.65-79
99MINMatt Flynn12Boxscore3621810006.61-1.38-77
100BALMatt Cassel14Boxscore3826520008.030.14-77

Foles again tops this table, but the ratings won’t — and are not expected to — perfectly match up with the ratings in table 1. For example, Case Keenum’s game against the Colts in week 9 was the 18th best of the year: 350 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions on 35 dropbacks will do that. Since it came against the Colts, only a slightly downward modification for SOS is necessary. That was in Table 1. But in Table 4, we look and see that the Colts allowed Case freakin’ Keenum to do that. Since the SOS adjustment here is stronger, Indianapolis gets credited with the 5th worst defensive performance of the season.

  1. There is a methodological point in creating Rearview ANY/A that needs to be addressed. To come up with strength of schedule-adjusted ratings, you need to adjust each quarterback for the quality of the defense and each defense for the quality of the quarterback. Doing this for defenses is easy, as there are no sample size problems. But for quarterbacks, if a passer has 20 passes against one team, and no passes against any other team, what rating do you give him? If he averaged 10.0 ANY/A against that team, the defense wouldn’t be penalized for that, because the system would assume that he was a 10.0 ANY/A player.

    To counter that, I combined all quarterbacks who had fewer than 100 passes last year into one Pseudo QB. The Pseudo QB was sometimes good but mostly very bad. On average, the Pseudo QBs produced an SOS-adjusted Relative ANY/A of -2.67. In the table above, featuring the top 100 defensive games, just two games came against Pseudo QBs, and both of those instances were Gabbert. It’s hard to have a great game against a Pseudo QB, of course, because of the SOS adjustment, but Gabbert was just that bad in those games. In the worst 100 games, four Pseudo QB performances show up. The defense is given an SOS adjustment of -2.67 in those games, assuming that all Pseudo QBs are created equally. The four are: Kyle Orton against Philadelphia, Tarvaris Jackson in relief against Jakcsonville, Chase Daniel against the Chargers, and Scott Tolzien against New York. This is just a footnote, of course, but I wanted to explain what was going on and to highlight why those four Qbs each have a rating of -2.67. []

{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }

C Bolton June 18, 2014 at 2:40 am

Many of the conclusions on this website depend on the design of the number called ANY/A.

If there were a reader who did not agree with the design of ANY/A, then that would undermine many of the conclusions here.

I wish there were a way to read the method for adjusting by strength of opponent which is not specific to ANY/A. A function that would also work with Passer Rating, NCAA Passing Efficiency Formula, ESPN Total QBR, or any other replacement for the ANY/A.


Bryan Frye June 18, 2014 at 8:36 am

One that treats pick sixes as if they are sometching a QB has control over, and weights a QB’s performance in the Super Bowl more than it does than entire regular season?


C Bolton June 18, 2014 at 12:54 pm

Every football statistical method rewards and punishes people for things they have no control over, including whatever is on your website. Quarterbacks have no control over the offensive line, whether or not people get open, whether or not people catch the pass, and a lot of other things.

The usual procedure is to look at 100% regular season and 0% post season. Anyone who counts the post season more than 0% is an improvement over most of what people say about football.


Bryan Frye June 18, 2014 at 4:10 pm

Pretty sure Chase includes postseason stats in his GQBOAT rankings… and does so quite well, I might add.


David June 18, 2014 at 9:57 am

Maybe if ESPN would share their QBR formula…

and its been well documented that NFL passer rating is flawed.


Bryan Frye June 18, 2014 at 11:25 am

I think that even if ESPN shared the formula, most fans wouldn’t have access to much of the raw information that goes into it. I really believe most fans are content to not do too much thinking. They like the way ESPN does things. I mean, John Clayton has more Twitter followers than FP, FO, PFF, and FBG combined. I know that isn’t a scientific way of counting things, but it gives a basic idea of what people want to see and how much they want to think.

For my money, Chase’s FPPR is superior to ANY/A or NFL Passer Rating (or CHFF’s Real QBR). I am biased, but of course I prefer my own rating (TQR) that takes rushing plays and fumbles into account and doesn’t overvalue completion rate.

The formula:

(PassYards + RushYards - SackYards + 20*TDs - 50*Turnovers) / (Passes + Sacks + Rushes)

This gives you, basically, an adjusted yards per play. In order to provide a cozy number that NFL fans are used to seeing, I just multiply that by 15 (which sounds like a lot until you realize the NFL multiples by 16.67 to get their Passer Rating).

Obviously, just using stats that you can find on PFR limits you from including things like Peyton Manning moving a slot receiver to the end of the LOS to pick up a blitz, but what are you gonna do?


Nathan June 18, 2014 at 12:12 pm

That’s a neat formula, do you mind if use it? I run an online text based football game, and I’d love to try to have a better basis for rating qbs. Right now most players user ANY/A


Bryan Frye June 18, 2014 at 12:18 pm

Go for it, my friend. I feel that we football nerds are all in this together.


Nathan June 18, 2014 at 12:30 pm

Thank you, I think the players will really like it. Am I correct that TQR stands for “Total Quarterback Rating”?


Bryan Frye June 18, 2014 at 3:59 pm

True Quarterback Rating…but really, we’re just picking nits here.


Bryan Frye June 19, 2014 at 1:18 pm

Forgot to mention, there is a calculator, in case you are interested.


Richie June 18, 2014 at 2:28 pm

You win. I read your website.

You lost me at: “The Super Bowl counts as 32 weighting units.”


Richie June 18, 2014 at 1:57 pm

This is why pages and pages of stats are so boring. Tony Romo on paper rocked the NFL (fantasy) world vs Denver. Then he threw a pick that beheaded him. That’s the lasting memory of that game. Romo’s performance was bafflingly bad. Makes all these stats look like, well, paper.


Bryan Frye June 18, 2014 at 4:13 pm

Max? What have you done with ol’ sensible Richie?


Chase Stuart June 18, 2014 at 10:22 pm

Well done.


stephen June 19, 2014 at 9:02 am

Why on earth would you not list either completions or completion percentage?


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