The 2015 Carolina Panthers and One Hit Wonders

by Chase Stuart on February 24, 2017

The 1999 Rams weren’t a fluke. They were a shocking team that went from terrible to excellent overnight, but their success in 2000 and 2001 proved that the team wasn’t a fluke.

The 2015 Panthers? That may be a different story. In 2014, Carolina went 7-8-1, before winning 7.5 more games (counting a tie as half a win) in 2015 as part of a magical 15-1 season. Last year, Carolina’s win total dropped by 9 games to 6-10. That means the Panthers 2015 season was, on average, 8.25 wins better than how the team performed in the two surrounding years.

How does that stack up among all teams since the merger? Well, it’s the second biggest outlier since 1970. Can you guess the first?

Trivia hint 1	Select Show
This team went from 5-11, to 13-3, and back down to 4-12. Like Ron Rivera, this team had the same head coach for all three years and he won Coach of the Year in the middle season.

Trivia hint 2	Select Show
In the 13-3 season, this team lost in the second round of the playoffs against a team with Rivera as linebackers coach.

Trivia hint 3	Select Show
The team’s top quarterback went 11-2 that season. The rest of his career, he went 4-10.

Click 'Show' for the Answer	Select Show
The 2001 Bears, behind quarterback Jim Miller and head coach Dick Jauron.

The third team, after the 2014-2016 Panthers, with the biggest swing? The 1997-1999 Falcons, who went from 7-9 to 14-2 to 5-11, for an average drop of 8.0 wins. The table below shows the teams since 1970 to have one positive outlier season that produced an average of 6.0 wins (after pro-rating for non-16 game seasons) more than in the year before and year after:

Rk	Team	Year N	N-1 W%	Yr N W%	N+ W%	Avg Win Change
1	Chicago Bears	2001	0.313	0.813	0.250	8.50
2	Carolina Panthers	2015	0.469	0.938	0.375	8.25
3	Atlanta Falcons	1998	0.438	0.875	0.313	8.00
4	Baltimore Ravens	2006	0.375	0.813	0.313	7.50
5	San Francisco 49ers	1981	0.375	0.813	0.333	7.33
6	Miami Dolphins	2008	0.063	0.688	0.438	7.00
9.5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2010	0.188	0.625	0.250	6.50
9.5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2005	0.313	0.688	0.250	6.50
9.5	Pittsburgh Steelers	2004	0.375	0.938	0.688	6.50
9.5	Indianapolis Colts	1999	0.188	0.813	0.625	6.50
9.5	Indianapolis Colts	1992	0.063	0.563	0.250	6.50
9.5	Detroit Lions	1991	0.375	0.750	0.313	6.50
17	Dallas Cowboys	2014	0.500	0.750	0.250	6.00
17	Washington Redskins	2012	0.313	0.625	0.188	6.00
17	Atlanta Falcons	2012	0.625	0.813	0.250	6.00
17	Houston Texans	2012	0.625	0.750	0.125	6.00
17	Cleveland Browns	2007	0.250	0.625	0.250	6.00
17	Green Bay Packers	2007	0.500	0.813	0.375	6.00
17	New York Jets	2006	0.250	0.625	0.250	6.00
17	St. Louis Rams	1999	0.250	0.813	0.625	6.00
17	Houston Oilers	1993	0.625	0.750	0.125	6.00

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

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