In 2014, Dallas, behind Tony Romo, went 12-4 (and 12-3 in Romo starts).
In 2015, with Matt Cassel, Brandon Weeden, and Kellen Moore, the Cowboys went 4-12 (and 3-1 in Romo games).
In 2016, Dallas, with Dak Prescott at quarterback, went 13-3.
So Dallas saw the team’s win total drop by 8 games from ’14 to ’15, and then bounce back up by 9 more games. That’s an average change of 8.5 wins, even more extreme than the Panthers change (in the other direction) we discussed yesterday.
Of course, given the quarterback changes in Dallas, it’s not super surprising to see that big swings in wins totals. The Cowboys are the 3rd team to have an average win swing of 8.5 wins over a 3-year period, with the middle year being really bad. The first two also happened pretty recently:
- In 2012, the Texans (with Matt Schaub) went 12-4; in ’13, Schaub’s performance fell through the floor, and Houston went 2-14 (-10). The next year, with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston went 9-7 (+7).
- In 2010, with Peyton Manning, the Colts went 10-6. In 2011, without Manning, Indianapolis dropped to 2-14 (-8) behind Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky, and Kerry Collins. Then, with a rookie Andrew Luck, Indianapolis jumped back up to 11-5 (+9).
| Rk | Team | Year N | N-1 W% | Yr N W% | N+ W% | Avg Win Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 2015 | 0.750 | 0.250 | 0.813 | -8.50 |
| 1 | Houston Texans | 2013 | 0.750 | 0.125 | 0.563 | -8.50 |
| 1 | Indianapolis Colts | 2011 | 0.625 | 0.125 | 0.688 | -8.50 |
| 4 | Miami Dolphins | 2007 | 0.375 | 0.063 | 0.688 | -7.50 |
| 4 | Houston Oilers | 1994 | 0.750 | 0.125 | 0.438 | -7.50 |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 1981 | 0.625 | 0.125 | 0.556 | -7.44 |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2012 | 0.438 | 0.125 | 0.688 | -7.00 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 2007 | 0.813 | 0.313 | 0.688 | -7.00 |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | 1991 | 0.438 | 0.063 | 0.563 | -7.00 |
| 10 | New England Patriots | 1975 | 0.500 | 0.214 | 0.786 | -6.86 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2003 | 0.656 | 0.375 | 0.938 | -6.75 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1987 | 0.625 | 0.267 | 0.750 | -6.73 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2009 | 0.563 | 0.188 | 0.625 | -6.50 |
| 13 | Denver Broncos | 1999 | 0.875 | 0.375 | 0.688 | -6.50 |
| 13 | Denver Broncos | 1990 | 0.688 | 0.313 | 0.750 | -6.50 |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers | 1982 | 0.813 | 0.333 | 0.625 | -6.17 |
| 17 | Carolina Panthers | 2014 | 0.750 | 0.469 | 0.938 | -6.00 |
| 17 | Green Bay Packers | 2008 | 0.813 | 0.375 | 0.688 | -6.00 |
| 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2006 | 0.688 | 0.250 | 0.563 | -6.00 |
| 17 | New York Jets | 2005 | 0.625 | 0.250 | 0.625 | -6.00 |
| 17 | New Orleans Saints | 2005 | 0.500 | 0.188 | 0.625 | -6.00 |
| 17 | San Diego Chargers | 2003 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.750 | -6.00 |
| 17 | St. Louis Rams | 2002 | 0.875 | 0.438 | 0.750 | -6.00 |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | 2002 | 0.813 | 0.250 | 0.438 | -6.00 |
| 17 | Carolina Panthers | 2001 | 0.438 | 0.063 | 0.438 | -6.00 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 1992 | 0.750 | 0.313 | 0.625 | -6.00 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 1979 | 0.438 | 0.125 | 0.563 | -6.00 |
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.