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Josh McCown Is A Really, Really Late Bloomer

Let’s say Josh McCown starts 6 games for the Jets this season. That will give McCown 66 career starts, and shockingly, half of those starts will have come after McCown turned 34 years old. That is remarkable no matter how you slice it, because at the start of the 2013 season, the odds would have been infinitesimal that McCown would start 33 more games in his career. Take a look at his career through 2012: the most likely outcome, I suspect, would be him never starting another game:

 
Year Age Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A
2002 23 ARI 2 0 7 18 38.9 66 0 2 33.0 10.2 5 50 0.70 -3.22
2003 24 ARI 8 3 1-2-0 95 166 57.2 1018 5 6 127.3 70.3 25 174 4.42 3.53
2004 25 ARI 14 13 6-7-0 233 408 57.1 2511 11 10 179.4 74.1 31 263 5.12 4.60
2005 26 ARI 9 6 3-3-0 163 270 60.4 1836 9 11 204.0 74.9 18 101 6.02 4.93
2006 27 DET 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
2007 28 OAK 9 9 2-7-0 111 190 58.4 1151 10 11 127.9 69.4 14 92 5.19 3.75
2008 29 CAR 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0
2009 30 CAR 1 0 1 6 16.7 2 0 0 2.0 39.6 1 6 -0.57 -0.57
2011 32 CHI 3 2 1-1-0 35 55 63.6 414 2 4 138.0 68.3 7 43 5.98 3.73
2012 33 CHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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A massively disappointing quarterback and Josh  McCown

A massively disappointing quarterback and Josh McCown

Passer rating is a stupid stat. But my interest in trivia trumps my disdain for passer rating, so let’s move on.

Josh McCown had a passer rating of 109.0 last year, the third best in the NFL in 2013. With one game left in the 2014 season, McCown has a passer rating of 70.5, and he is in a tight three-way race with Geno Smith and Blake Bortles to see who finishes the season with the worst passer rating. Update: McCown had a passer rating of 70.0 in week 17, and finished the year with a 70.5 passer rating. A decline of 38.5 points in a quarterback’s passer rating is enormous, but not unprecedented. In fact, eight other players (minimum 200 pass attempts both years) have seen larger declines:

#8) Daunte Culpepper (2004-2005)

In 2004, Culpepper set an NFL record with 5,123 yards of total offense.  I wrote about Culpepper’s great ’04 season and his subsequent decline at the PFR blog back in 2007, and I maintain that Culpepper was a very underrated quarterback during his time in Minnesota.  In 2004, he finished with a passer rating of 110.9; the next year, his final with the Vikings, he threw 6 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in seven games, before an ACL year ended his season.  He finished with a 72.0 passer rating, representing a 38.9 point drop from his lofty ’04 standard. [continue reading…]

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