by Chase Stuart
on July 27, 2018
You’re going to want to sit down for this one: Antonio Brown and Julio Jones were the two best receivers in the NFL last year.
Houston star DeAndre Hopkins was responsible for 37.8% of all Texans receiving yards last season, the highest rate in the league in 2017 (Hopkins also did this as a rookie in 2014). But Brown and Jones weren’t too far behind him: Brown had 34.8% of all Steelers receiving yards despite missing nearly three full games. And Jones had 33.8% of all Falcons receiving yards, the third highest ratio in the NFL. But Hopkins played on a mediocre Texans passing attack that ranked 20th in ANY/A (more precisely, he spent 40% of his time on a great passing attack led by Deshaun Watson, and 60% of his time on a terrible pass offense with Tom Savage and T.J. Yates under center). Jones and Brown played on passing offenses that averaged 7.0 ANY/A, ranking 7th and 8th in the NFL in 2017.
One of my favorite things to do at Football Perspective is to look at receiving production in the context of two stats: percentage of team yards and team passing efficiency (highlighted here when looking at Gary Clark’s production on the ’91 Skins). Why do I like looking at this? In some ways, these are counter forces. Put a great wide receiver on a good passing attack and he might not have a huge share of the offense, but the passing attack should be outstanding. Put him on a bad passing attack, and the pass efficiency may not be great, but he should have a huge share of the pie. It is hardly perfect, but it’s fun to look at.
So how do we quantify this? Let’s use Keenan Allen as an example for the table below. He had 30.6% of all Chargers receiving yards last season and Los Angeles averaged an impressive 7.48 ANY/A. He ranked 6th in percentage of Team Receiving Yards, and the Chargers ranked 3rd in ANY/A. Allen was 1.03 standard deviations above average in percentage of team receiving yards – the % of TRY Z-Score — and the Chargers were 1.47 standard deviations above average in ANY/A (the ANY/A Z-Score). If you add those two numbers together, Allen was 2.50 standard deviations above average, the metric by which the table below is sorted. [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Antonio Brown,
DeAndre Hopkins,
Julio Jones,
Keenan Allen,
True Receiving Yards
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by Chase Stuart
on August 1, 2016
Not a reach to call Nuk one of the best players in the NFL
Last year,
Antonio Brown and
Julio Jones were the best wide receivers in the NFL. But
DeAndre Hopkins was was in a
small group of
receivers after those two vying for the title of third best wideout. And when it comes to relying on one player, well, Hopkins really stands out among the pack.
Last year, Jones had 40.7% of all Falcons receiving yards, highest rate in the league. That was followed by Brown at 38.0%, and then Hopkins at 37.3%. After him, Brandon Marshall was at 36.0%, and Odell Beckham was a distant fifth at 32.2%. And at just 23 years old, Hopkins obviously has a very bright future ahead of him.
Since 1970, there have been 132 player seasons where a player had at least 35.0% of his team’s receiving yards. But as you’d suspect, it’s rarely done by a player as young as Hopkins. The bar graph below shows how many players at each age have hit that mark since the Merger: [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
DeAndre Hopkins
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by Chase Stuart
on November 7, 2015
Today’s guest post/contest comes from Adam Harstad, a co-writer of mine at Footballguys.com. You can follow Adam on twitter at @AdamHarstad.
This guy can pick up first downs
Regular readers of Football Perspective are well acquainted with the sneaky-greatness of DeAndre Hopkins, who led the NFL in percentage of his team’s receiving yards in 2014 despite not even leading his own team in targets. And, indeed, by “percentage of team receiving yards”, Hopkins is having another terrific season; his 37.0% share is slightly above the league-leading 35.0% he posted last year, (though it trails the 38.6% share he carried through his team’s first 14 games in 2014).
But Hopkins is having an even better season by a far less esoteric statistic: receiving first downs. As best as I have been able to determine, the all-time record for receiving first downs in a season is 92, set by Marvin Harrison in 2002 and tied by Calvin Johnson in 2012. Through eight games this year, Hopkins has converted for a new set of downs a remarkable 54 times, putting him on pace for 108, a ridiculous 17.4% more than the previous NFL record. (For context, if a quarterback wanted to break Peyton Manning’s single-season passing yardage record by 17.4%, he would need to throw for 6430 yards.) [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Adam Harstad,
DeAndre Hopkins
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by Chase Stuart
on February 25, 2015
Good at catching footballs, in the event his team throws one
The Houston Texans finished 31st in pass attempts in 2014, ahead of only the Seattle Seahawks. The Texans were not exactly the beneficiaries of stellar quarterback play, either:
Ryan Fitzpatrick handled 64% of the team’s pass attempts, with
Case Keenum,
Ryan Mallett, and
Tom Savage taking the rest.
As a result, the 1,210 yards DeAndre Hopkins gained in 2014 is a lot better than it sounds. Houston threw for just 3,460 yards last year (excluding sacks), which means Hopkins gained 35% of all Texans receiving yards. Antonio Brown led the NFL with 1,698 receiving yards, but even that was just 34% of all Steelers receiving yards.
The table below shows the top 53 leaders in percentage of team receiving yards: [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
2014 Receiving,
DeAndre Hopkins
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by Chase Stuart
on December 17, 2014
Would you believe this guy is good at catching footballs?
Houston Texans wide receiver
DeAndre Hopkins is having a fine year. While his 69 receptions is tied for only 24th in this era where catching passes is easier than ever, he’s averaging an impressive 16.9 yards per reception. No player with more than 50 receptions has a higher yards per catch average, which is why Hopkins ranks 9th in receiving yards despite ranking 24th in receptions.
But 9th is still just 9th, which is a long cry from 1st. But consider that the Texans are just 31st in pass attempts this year: in that light, ranking 9th looks a lot more impressive. And then consider the state of the Houston quarterback play. The Texans actually rank above average in yards per attempt, but there’s a reason that statistic is misleading: that reason is DeAndre Hopkins.
Houston passers (Ryan Fitzpatrick, mostly, with some Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage cameos) are averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, but that is the result of a 10.7 Y/A average on passes to Hopkins and 6.2 yards per attempt on all other passes.
So start with a player who ranks 9th in receiving yards, adjust for the fact that he’s on the team with the second fewest passes in football, and then consider that his quarterbacks are terrible on passes to everyone else on his team. That’s how you end up with Hopkins being responsible for a league-high 38.6 percent of his team’s receiving yards. [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
DeAndre Hopkins
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