Red Zone Performance Since 2002

by Chase Stuart on August 15, 2018

As noted yesterday, red zone performance is mildly correlated with team success. One team that was a big outlier last year was the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s offense made it into the red zone 63 times, but converted those trips into touchdowns just 32 times (50.8%), slightly below-average. On defense, the Steelers allowed touchdowns on 24 of 39 red zone trips, a 61.5% rate that was the 5th-worst in the league. Of course, the Steelers were actually one of the best teams in the league.

On one hand, this seems kind of silly: of course red zone performance alone won’t tell us much about a team’s record! It says nothing about a team’s turnover rate, how effective the team is at producing or preventing big plays, overall team efficiency, or special teams. Perhaps the most remarkable part is that it does tell us quite a bit.

The table below has a lot of information, so to analyze it, let’s look at the best red zone team of the modern era, the 2005 Seattle Seahawks. That year, the Seahawks offense had 60 red zone trips and scored a touchdown on 43 of them, a conversion rate of 71.7%. Given that 53% of red zone trips yield a touchdown, this means Seattle’s offense scored 11.1 more red zone touchdowns than expected. On defense, Seattle faced 47 red zone trips, and allowed just 19 touchdowns, a 40.4% conversion rate that was 6.0 touchdowns better than average. Therefore, overall, the team’s red zone performance yielded 17.1 touchdowns better than average, the most of any team since 2002. Based on the best-fit formula derived yesterday, a team’s expected winning percentage based on its red zone team value is 0.0154*(Team Value) +0.500. Since Seattle’s red zone value was +17.1, we would have expected the Seahawks to win 76.3% of their games; they actually won 81.3% of their games, a difference of 0.049.

Year	Team	RZ Att O	RZ Sc O	Perc	Value	RZ Att D	RZ Sc D	Perc	Value	Tm Val	Exp Win%	Act Win%	Diff
2005	SEA	60	43	71.7%	11.1	47	19	40.4%	6.0	17.1	0.763	0.813	0.049
2003	KAN	54	42	77.8%	13.3	47	24	51.1%	1.0	14.3	0.720	0.813	0.093
2015	NYJ	53	35	66.0%	6.8	40	14	35.0%	7.3	14.1	0.717	0.625	-0.092
2008	IND	50	34	68.0%	7.4	47	19	40.4%	6.0	13.4	0.706	0.750	0.044
2003	GNB	52	34	65.4%	6.4	46	18	39.1%	6.4	12.8	0.697	0.625	-0.072
2009	ARI	54	38	70.4%	9.3	47	22	46.8%	3.0	12.3	0.689	0.625	-0.064
2012	NWE	70	49	70.0%	11.8	46	24	52.2%	0.4	12.2	0.689	0.750	0.061
2004	SDG	63	44	69.8%	10.5	54	27	50.0%	1.7	12.2	0.688	0.750	0.062
2002	MIA	56	36	64.3%	6.2	44	18	40.9%	5.4	11.6	0.679	0.563	-0.117
2013	DET	56	35	62.5%	5.2	42	16	38.1%	6.3	11.6	0.678	0.438	-0.241
2009	NOR	71	41	57.7%	3.3	56	22	39.3%	7.8	11.0	0.670	0.813	0.143
2006	NWE	60	36	60.0%	4.1	35	12	34.3%	6.6	10.7	0.665	0.750	0.085
2013	CIN	46	34	73.9%	9.6	36	18	50.0%	1.1	10.7	0.665	0.688	0.023
2002	CLE	43	23	53.5%	0.2	55	19	34.5%	10.2	10.4	0.660	0.563	-0.097
2013	DEN	67	51	76.1%	15.4	60	37	61.7%	-5.1	10.3	0.658	0.813	0.154
2014	KAN	48	28	58.3%	2.5	54	21	38.9%	7.7	10.2	0.657	0.563	-0.094
2015	CAR	63	43	68.3%	9.5	40	21	52.5%	0.3	9.8	0.651	0.938	0.287
2002	WAS	44	26	59.1%	2.6	51	20	39.2%	7.1	9.7	0.650	0.438	-0.212
2016	TEN	50	36	72.0%	9.4	55	29	52.7%	0.2	9.7	0.649	0.563	-0.086
2010	TEN	43	25	58.1%	2.2	63	26	41.3%	7.5	9.6	0.648	0.375	-0.273
2009	MIN	69	43	62.3%	6.3	40	18	45.0%	3.3	9.6	0.648	0.750	0.102
2004	NWE	63	37	58.7%	3.5	49	20	40.8%	6.0	9.6	0.647	0.875	0.228
2007	NWE	72	50	69.4%	11.7	41	24	58.5%	-2.2	9.5	0.647	1.000	0.353
2007	NOR	50	36	72.0%	9.4	47	25	53.2%	0.0	9.4	0.645	0.438	-0.207
2015	CIN	58	38	65.5%	7.2	38	18	47.4%	2.2	9.4	0.644	0.750	0.106
2017	JAX	50	32	64.0%	5.4	28	11	39.3%	3.9	9.3	0.643	0.625	-0.018
2017	NWE	70	42	60.0%	4.8	48	21	43.8%	4.5	9.3	0.643	0.813	0.169
2008	PIT	49	27	55.1%	1.0	42	14	33.3%	8.3	9.3	0.643	0.750	0.107
2009	IND	53	35	66.0%	6.8	51	25	49.0%	2.1	8.9	0.638	0.875	0.237
2002	KAN	64	42	65.6%	8.0	60	31	51.7%	0.9	8.9	0.637	0.500	-0.137
2004	IND	67	42	62.7%	6.4	46	22	47.8%	2.4	8.8	0.636	0.750	0.114
2010	IND	56	38	67.9%	8.2	48	25	52.1%	0.5	8.7	0.635	0.625	-0.010
2005	SDG	50	35	70.0%	8.4	55	29	52.7%	0.2	8.7	0.633	0.563	-0.071
2007	ARI	50	34	68.0%	7.4	53	27	50.9%	1.2	8.6	0.632	0.500	-0.132
2016	IND	53	35	66.0%	6.8	50	25	50.0%	1.6	8.4	0.629	0.500	-0.129
2011	DET	58	37	63.8%	6.2	53	26	49.1%	2.2	8.3	0.628	0.625	-0.003
2009	SFO	39	23	59.0%	2.3	47	19	40.4%	6.0	8.3	0.627	0.500	-0.127
2016	CAR	49	29	59.2%	3.0	55	24	43.6%	5.2	8.2	0.626	0.375	-0.251
2003	SEA	50	31	62.0%	4.4	50	23	46.0%	3.6	8.0	0.623	0.625	0.002
2003	TAM	40	22	55.0%	0.7	40	14	35.0%	7.3	8.0	0.623	0.438	-0.186
2017	MIN	57	33	57.9%	2.7	40	16	40.0%	5.3	8.0	0.623	0.813	0.190
2008	NOR	62	38	61.3%	5.1	60	29	48.3%	2.9	7.9	0.622	0.500	-0.122
2013	SEA	57	32	56.1%	1.7	36	13	36.1%	6.1	7.8	0.621	0.813	0.192
2005	WAS	47	30	63.8%	5.0	37	17	45.9%	2.7	7.7	0.618	0.625	0.007
2003	HOU	34	21	61.8%	2.9	52	23	44.2%	4.6	7.6	0.616	0.313	-0.304
2005	CAR	53	31	58.5%	2.8	39	16	41.0%	4.7	7.6	0.616	0.688	0.071
2004	PHI	47	30	63.8%	5.0	46	22	47.8%	2.4	7.5	0.615	0.813	0.197
2009	MIA	54	33	61.1%	4.3	51	24	47.1%	3.1	7.4	0.614	0.438	-0.177
2016	DAL	57	38	66.7%	7.7	54	29	53.7%	-0.3	7.4	0.614	0.813	0.198
2009	WAS	46	26	56.5%	1.6	41	16	39.0%	5.8	7.3	0.613	0.250	-0.363
2016	PIT	49	29	59.2%	3.0	57	26	45.6%	4.3	7.3	0.612	0.688	0.076
2013	CAR	50	29	58.0%	2.4	41	17	41.5%	4.8	7.2	0.611	0.750	0.139
2003	PHI	51	32	62.7%	4.9	42	20	47.6%	2.3	7.2	0.611	0.750	0.139
2002	CHI	40	23	57.5%	1.7	61	27	44.3%	5.4	7.2	0.610	0.250	-0.360
2011	NWE	72	47	65.3%	8.7	61	34	55.7%	-1.6	7.2	0.610	0.813	0.202
2011	NYJ	55	36	65.5%	6.8	44	23	52.3%	0.4	7.2	0.610	0.500	-0.110
2012	BAL	49	28	57.1%	2.0	53	23	43.4%	5.2	7.1	0.610	0.625	0.015
2006	SDG	62	42	67.7%	9.1	47	27	57.4%	-2.0	7.0	0.608	0.875	0.267
2003	MIA	43	21	48.8%	-1.8	43	14	32.6%	8.8	7.0	0.608	0.625	0.017
2008	TEN	45	28	62.2%	4.1	43	20	46.5%	2.8	6.9	0.607	0.813	0.206
2012	NOR	57	39	68.4%	8.7	70	39	55.7%	-1.8	6.9	0.606	0.438	-0.169
2011	ARI	45	23	51.1%	-0.9	58	23	39.7%	7.8	6.9	0.606	0.500	-0.106
2012	ATL	63	37	58.7%	3.5	42	19	45.2%	3.3	6.8	0.605	0.813	0.207
2005	PIT	56	34	60.7%	4.2	48	23	47.9%	2.5	6.7	0.604	0.688	0.084
2011	GNB	66	43	65.2%	7.9	56	31	55.4%	-1.2	6.7	0.603	0.938	0.335
2016	NOR	68	45	66.2%	8.9	56	32	57.1%	-2.2	6.6	0.602	0.438	-0.165
2016	BUF	54	35	64.8%	6.3	57	30	52.6%	0.3	6.6	0.602	0.438	-0.164
2015	PIT	56	34	60.7%	4.2	57	28	49.1%	2.3	6.5	0.601	0.625	0.024
2012	MIA	38	21	55.3%	0.8	54	23	42.6%	5.7	6.5	0.600	0.438	-0.163
2016	NWE	60	38	63.3%	6.1	44	23	52.3%	0.4	6.5	0.600	0.875	0.275
2008	DAL	44	26	59.1%	2.6	56	26	46.4%	3.8	6.4	0.598	0.563	-0.036
2005	IND	61	37	60.7%	4.6	39	19	48.7%	1.7	6.3	0.597	0.875	0.278
2015	SDG	44	28	63.6%	4.6	46	23	50.0%	1.4	6.1	0.593	0.250	-0.343
2010	ARI	37	16	43.2%	-3.7	69	27	39.1%	9.7	6.0	0.592	0.313	-0.280
2016	NYG	43	23	53.5%	0.2	43	17	39.5%	5.8	6.0	0.592	0.688	0.095
2008	CAR	49	32	65.3%	6.0	49	26	53.1%	0.0	6.0	0.592	0.750	0.158
2017	PHI	55	36	65.5%	6.8	38	21	55.3%	-0.8	6.0	0.592	0.813	0.221
2010	NWE	67	42	62.7%	6.4	50	27	54.0%	-0.4	6.0	0.592	0.875	0.283
2015	NWE	61	40	65.6%	7.6	42	24	57.1%	-1.7	5.9	0.591	0.750	0.159
2014	OAK	29	21	72.4%	5.6	57	30	52.6%	0.3	5.9	0.591	0.188	-0.403
2010	MIA	34	18	52.9%	-0.1	45	18	40.0%	5.9	5.8	0.590	0.438	-0.153
2014	NWE	67	39	58.2%	3.4	46	22	47.8%	2.4	5.8	0.590	0.750	0.160
2014	CHI	47	30	63.8%	5.0	71	37	52.1%	0.7	5.8	0.589	0.313	-0.276
2014	NYG	61	36	59.0%	3.6	51	25	49.0%	2.1	5.7	0.588	0.375	-0.213
2012	SEA	54	31	57.4%	2.3	38	17	44.7%	3.2	5.5	0.585	0.688	0.103
2005	CHI	43	20	46.5%	-2.8	40	13	32.5%	8.3	5.4	0.583	0.688	0.104
2015	STL	36	19	52.8%	-0.1	48	20	41.7%	5.5	5.4	0.583	0.438	-0.145
2007	MIN	35	21	60.0%	2.4	47	22	46.8%	3.0	5.4	0.583	0.500	-0.083
2006	JAX	52	30	57.7%	2.4	32	14	43.8%	3.0	5.4	0.583	0.500	-0.083
2006	DEN	44	24	54.5%	0.6	54	24	44.4%	4.7	5.3	0.582	0.563	-0.019
2013	MIA	46	26	56.5%	1.6	56	26	46.4%	3.8	5.3	0.582	0.500	-0.082
2010	GNB	53	32	60.4%	3.8	31	15	48.4%	1.5	5.3	0.582	0.625	0.043
2011	BAL	49	25	51.0%	-1.0	42	16	38.1%	6.3	5.3	0.581	0.750	0.169
2007	KAN	35	17	48.6%	-1.6	43	16	37.2%	6.8	5.3	0.581	0.250	-0.331
2016	ARI	54	35	64.8%	6.3	45	25	55.6%	-1.1	5.2	0.580	0.469	-0.112
2014	BAL	63	33	52.4%	-0.5	54	23	42.6%	5.7	5.2	0.580	0.625	0.045
2015	SEA	49	27	55.1%	1.0	38	16	42.1%	4.2	5.2	0.579	0.625	0.046
2006	IND	62	41	66.1%	8.1	51	30	58.8%	-2.9	5.2	0.579	0.750	0.171
2007	PHI	51	23	45.1%	-4.1	55	20	36.4%	9.2	5.1	0.579	0.500	-0.079
2008	MIA	45	27	60.0%	3.1	47	23	48.9%	2.0	5.1	0.578	0.688	0.110
2017	CIN	43	24	55.8%	1.2	56	26	46.4%	3.8	4.9	0.576	0.438	-0.138
2011	TEN	37	22	59.5%	2.3	48	23	47.9%	2.5	4.8	0.575	0.563	-0.012
2003	DEN	56	31	55.4%	1.2	35	15	42.9%	3.6	4.8	0.575	0.625	0.050
2006	DAL	58	35	60.3%	4.2	48	25	52.1%	0.5	4.7	0.572	0.563	-0.010
2005	NWE	58	37	63.8%	6.2	48	27	56.3%	-1.5	4.7	0.572	0.625	0.053
2004	BAL	40	20	50.0%	-1.3	45	18	40.0%	5.9	4.7	0.572	0.563	-0.009
2012	NYG	62	34	54.8%	1.1	50	23	46.0%	3.6	4.6	0.571	0.563	-0.009
2011	CHI	38	20	52.6%	-0.2	56	25	44.6%	4.8	4.6	0.570	0.500	-0.070
2009	BAL	57	30	52.6%	-0.3	43	18	41.9%	4.8	4.6	0.570	0.563	-0.008
2017	CHI	33	20	60.6%	2.5	49	24	49.0%	2.0	4.5	0.569	0.313	-0.257
2012	DET	55	33	60.0%	3.8	39	20	51.3%	0.7	4.5	0.569	0.250	-0.319
2017	OAK	34	20	58.8%	1.9	48	23	47.9%	2.5	4.4	0.568	0.375	-0.193
2017	BAL	52	30	57.7%	2.4	45	22	48.9%	1.9	4.3	0.566	0.563	-0.003
2014	CIN	49	28	57.1%	2.0	55	27	49.1%	2.2	4.2	0.564	0.656	0.092
2003	CLE	42	19	45.2%	-3.3	48	18	37.5%	7.5	4.2	0.564	0.313	-0.252
2006	MIN	42	19	45.2%	-3.3	46	17	37.0%	7.4	4.1	0.564	0.375	-0.189
2015	OAK	41	25	61.0%	3.2	58	30	51.7%	0.8	4.0	0.562	0.438	-0.125
2004	NYJ	43	25	58.1%	2.2	41	20	48.8%	1.8	3.9	0.561	0.625	0.064
2003	TEN	60	32	53.3%	0.1	41	18	43.9%	3.8	3.9	0.560	0.750	0.190
2010	JAX	46	29	63.0%	4.6	57	31	54.4%	-0.7	3.8	0.559	0.500	-0.059
2014	DEN	62	39	62.9%	6.1	52	30	57.7%	-2.4	3.7	0.557	0.750	0.193
2007	OAK	35	21	60.0%	2.4	55	28	50.9%	1.2	3.6	0.556	0.250	-0.306
2008	BAL	51	24	47.1%	-3.1	39	14	35.9%	6.7	3.6	0.556	0.688	0.132
2008	BUF	52	25	48.1%	-2.6	55	23	41.8%	6.2	3.6	0.555	0.438	-0.118
2007	HOU	46	28	60.9%	3.6	62	33	53.2%	-0.1	3.5	0.554	0.500	-0.054
2015	ARI	63	38	60.3%	4.5	47	26	55.3%	-1.0	3.5	0.554	0.813	0.259
2010	ATL	58	35	60.3%	4.2	42	23	54.8%	-0.7	3.5	0.554	0.813	0.259
2017	SEA	45	25	55.6%	1.1	42	20	47.6%	2.3	3.4	0.552	0.563	0.010
2006	PHI	46	26	56.5%	1.6	43	21	48.8%	1.8	3.4	0.552	0.625	0.073
2013	KAN	57	33	57.9%	2.7	37	19	51.4%	0.7	3.4	0.552	0.688	0.136
2004	KAN	59	40	67.8%	8.6	54	34	63.0%	-5.3	3.3	0.551	0.438	-0.114
2002	NYJ	54	32	59.3%	3.3	49	26	53.1%	0.0	3.3	0.551	0.563	0.011
2017	NOR	55	32	58.2%	2.8	48	25	52.1%	0.5	3.3	0.551	0.688	0.137
2017	LAC	47	22	46.8%	-3.0	36	13	36.1%	6.1	3.2	0.549	0.563	0.014
2005	JAX	49	29	59.2%	3.0	36	19	52.8%	0.1	3.1	0.548	0.750	0.202
2002	JAX	51	28	54.9%	0.9	53	26	49.1%	2.2	3.1	0.547	0.375	-0.172
2015	WAS	49	30	61.2%	4.0	49	27	55.1%	-1.0	3.0	0.546	0.563	0.016
2012	GNB	47	32	68.1%	7.0	47	29	61.7%	-4.0	3.0	0.546	0.688	0.141
2012	HOU	57	32	56.1%	1.7	40	20	50.0%	1.3	3.0	0.546	0.750	0.204
2014	HOU	48	26	54.2%	0.5	46	22	47.8%	2.4	2.9	0.545	0.563	0.017
2004	CAR	52	31	59.6%	3.4	50	27	54.0%	-0.4	2.9	0.545	0.438	-0.108
2002	STL	51	28	54.9%	0.9	49	24	49.0%	2.0	2.9	0.545	0.438	-0.108
2004	NOR	47	27	57.4%	2.0	60	31	51.7%	0.9	2.9	0.545	0.500	-0.045
2003	NOR	40	22	55.0%	0.7	53	26	49.1%	2.2	2.9	0.545	0.500	-0.045
2005	DEN	58	35	60.3%	4.2	39	22	56.4%	-1.3	2.9	0.545	0.813	0.268
2006	KAN	48	29	60.4%	3.5	44	24	54.5%	-0.6	2.9	0.544	0.563	0.018
2007	SFO	29	15	51.7%	-0.4	53	25	47.2%	3.2	2.8	0.542	0.313	-0.230
2007	SEA	49	28	57.1%	2.0	41	21	51.2%	0.8	2.7	0.542	0.625	0.083
2017	CAR	52	28	53.8%	0.4	44	21	47.7%	2.4	2.7	0.542	0.688	0.145
2013	NYJ	42	21	50.0%	-1.3	49	22	44.9%	4.0	2.7	0.542	0.500	-0.042
2006	HOU	42	24	57.1%	1.7	49	25	51.0%	1.0	2.7	0.542	0.375	-0.167
2010	PIT	50	24	48.0%	-2.6	40	16	40.0%	5.3	2.7	0.541	0.750	0.209
2011	ATL	59	31	52.5%	-0.4	47	22	46.8%	3.0	2.6	0.540	0.625	0.085
2008	SDG	65	37	56.9%	2.5	53	28	52.8%	0.2	2.6	0.540	0.500	-0.040
2011	MIN	53	30	56.6%	1.8	56	29	51.8%	0.8	2.6	0.540	0.188	-0.352
2011	CLE	31	13	41.9%	-3.5	49	20	40.8%	6.0	2.6	0.539	0.250	-0.289
2010	DET	45	29	64.4%	5.1	46	27	58.7%	-2.6	2.5	0.539	0.375	-0.164
2007	CLE	55	30	54.5%	0.8	56	28	50.0%	1.8	2.5	0.539	0.625	0.086
2017	TEN	40	21	52.5%	-0.3	56	27	48.2%	2.8	2.5	0.539	0.563	0.024
2002	TAM	51	23	45.1%	-4.1	35	12	34.3%	6.6	2.5	0.538	0.750	0.212
2010	NOR	61	31	50.8%	-1.4	45	20	44.4%	3.9	2.5	0.538	0.688	0.149
2015	MIN	44	22	50.0%	-1.4	43	19	44.2%	3.8	2.5	0.538	0.688	0.149
2004	ARI	37	18	48.6%	-1.7	51	23	45.1%	4.1	2.4	0.538	0.375	-0.163
2005	ATL	54	31	57.4%	2.3	49	26	53.1%	0.0	2.3	0.536	0.500	-0.036
2015	DET	49	34	69.4%	8.0	59	37	62.7%	-5.6	2.3	0.536	0.438	-0.098
2010	NYG	54	31	57.4%	2.3	47	25	53.2%	0.0	2.3	0.535	0.625	0.090
2007	GNB	50	27	54.0%	0.4	43	21	48.8%	1.8	2.3	0.535	0.813	0.277
2003	CIN	47	28	59.6%	3.0	55	30	54.5%	-0.8	2.3	0.535	0.500	-0.035
2005	KAN	54	28	51.9%	-0.7	45	21	46.7%	2.9	2.2	0.534	0.625	0.091
2010	BAL	51	25	49.0%	-2.1	40	17	42.5%	4.3	2.2	0.533	0.750	0.217
2012	CAR	46	27	58.7%	2.6	50	27	54.0%	-0.4	2.1	0.533	0.438	-0.095
2004	JAX	45	19	42.2%	-4.9	47	18	38.3%	7.0	2.1	0.532	0.563	0.031
2008	SFO	52	27	51.9%	-0.6	52	25	48.1%	2.6	2.0	0.531	0.438	-0.093
2004	TAM	40	21	52.5%	-0.3	40	19	47.5%	2.3	2.0	0.531	0.313	-0.218
2002	BAL	38	19	50.0%	-1.2	53	25	47.2%	3.2	2.0	0.530	0.438	-0.093
2016	JAX	40	24	60.0%	2.7	55	30	54.5%	-0.8	2.0	0.530	0.188	-0.343
2007	PIT	55	32	58.2%	2.8	38	21	55.3%	-0.8	2.0	0.530	0.625	0.095
2014	DAL	51	33	64.7%	5.9	49	30	61.2%	-4.0	1.9	0.530	0.750	0.220
2003	NYJ	39	19	48.7%	-1.7	52	24	46.2%	3.6	1.9	0.529	0.375	-0.154
2016	PHI	55	27	49.1%	-2.2	51	23	45.1%	4.1	1.9	0.529	0.438	-0.091
2008	ATL	56	31	55.4%	1.2	52	27	51.9%	0.6	1.9	0.529	0.688	0.159
2003	NWE	50	22	44.0%	-4.6	46	18	39.1%	6.4	1.9	0.529	0.875	0.346
2011	NOR	75	44	58.7%	4.1	39	23	59.0%	-2.3	1.9	0.529	0.813	0.284
2017	WAS	46	25	54.3%	0.6	57	29	50.9%	1.3	1.8	0.528	0.438	-0.091
2017	ATL	54	27	50.0%	-1.7	48	22	45.8%	3.5	1.8	0.528	0.625	0.097
2007	IND	69	39	56.5%	2.3	46	25	54.3%	-0.6	1.8	0.527	0.813	0.285
2012	TAM	47	28	59.6%	3.0	54	30	55.6%	-1.3	1.7	0.526	0.438	-0.089
2012	DEN	66	39	59.1%	3.9	41	24	58.5%	-2.2	1.7	0.526	0.813	0.286
2008	KAN	45	26	57.8%	2.1	67	36	53.7%	-0.4	1.7	0.526	0.125	-0.401
2014	CLE	49	24	49.0%	-2.0	54	25	46.3%	3.7	1.7	0.526	0.438	-0.088
2012	IND	48	26	54.2%	0.5	53	27	50.9%	1.2	1.7	0.526	0.688	0.162
2007	DAL	56	30	53.6%	0.2	44	22	50.0%	1.4	1.6	0.525	0.813	0.287
2008	GNB	48	29	60.4%	3.5	51	29	56.9%	-1.9	1.6	0.525	0.375	-0.150
2009	CLE	39	17	43.6%	-3.7	57	25	43.9%	5.3	1.6	0.524	0.313	-0.212
2013	SFO	55	31	56.4%	1.8	41	22	53.7%	-0.2	1.6	0.524	0.750	0.226
2005	CIN	62	35	56.5%	2.1	48	26	54.2%	-0.5	1.6	0.524	0.688	0.163
2004	CHI	38	16	42.1%	-4.2	54	23	42.6%	5.7	1.5	0.523	0.313	-0.211
2014	GNB	64	37	57.8%	3.0	48	27	56.3%	-1.5	1.5	0.523	0.750	0.227
2012	CIN	57	31	54.4%	0.7	41	21	51.2%	0.8	1.5	0.523	0.625	0.102
2009	NYJ	49	24	49.0%	-2.0	33	14	42.4%	3.5	1.5	0.523	0.563	0.039
2012	WAS	53	32	60.4%	3.8	52	30	57.7%	-2.4	1.5	0.523	0.625	0.102
2011	MIA	53	25	47.2%	-3.2	52	23	44.2%	4.6	1.5	0.523	0.375	-0.148
2014	ATL	44	27	61.4%	3.6	58	33	56.9%	-2.2	1.4	0.522	0.375	-0.147
2010	WAS	43	22	51.2%	-0.8	57	28	49.1%	2.3	1.4	0.522	0.375	-0.147
2005	OAK	45	21	46.7%	-2.9	59	27	45.8%	4.4	1.4	0.522	0.250	-0.272
2004	CIN	55	28	50.9%	-1.2	52	25	48.1%	2.6	1.4	0.522	0.500	-0.022
2017	DAL	52	31	59.6%	3.4	49	28	57.1%	-2.0	1.4	0.522	0.563	0.041
2016	CIN	54	29	53.7%	0.3	49	25	51.0%	1.0	1.3	0.521	0.406	-0.114
2014	STL	44	22	50.0%	-1.4	39	18	46.2%	2.7	1.3	0.521	0.375	-0.146
2008	NYJ	62	33	53.2%	0.1	57	29	50.9%	1.3	1.3	0.521	0.563	0.042
2012	PIT	49	27	55.1%	1.0	42	22	52.4%	0.3	1.3	0.520	0.500	-0.020
2006	WAS	42	21	50.0%	-1.3	48	23	47.9%	2.5	1.2	0.518	0.313	-0.206
2005	TAM	39	20	51.3%	-0.7	45	22	48.9%	1.9	1.2	0.518	0.688	0.169
2006	PIT	56	28	50.0%	-1.8	45	21	46.7%	2.9	1.2	0.518	0.500	-0.018
2014	SDG	48	26	54.2%	0.5	52	27	51.9%	0.6	1.1	0.517	0.563	0.045
2013	TAM	37	19	51.4%	-0.7	56	28	50.0%	1.8	1.1	0.517	0.250	-0.267
2009	TAM	31	16	51.6%	-0.5	50	25	50.0%	1.6	1.1	0.517	0.188	-0.329
2007	JAX	58	33	56.9%	2.2	45	25	55.6%	-1.1	1.1	0.517	0.688	0.171
2007	SDG	52	29	55.8%	1.4	37	20	54.1%	-0.3	1.0	0.516	0.688	0.172
2005	DAL	53	28	52.8%	-0.2	38	19	50.0%	1.2	1.0	0.516	0.563	0.047
2006	CIN	52	30	57.7%	2.4	52	29	55.8%	-1.4	1.0	0.515	0.500	-0.015
2004	HOU	44	26	59.1%	2.6	44	25	56.8%	-1.6	1.0	0.515	0.438	-0.078
2002	SDG	49	30	61.2%	4.0	49	29	59.2%	-3.0	1.0	0.515	0.500	-0.015
2004	SEA	53	31	58.5%	2.8	51	29	56.9%	-1.9	0.9	0.514	0.563	0.048
2010	SFO	42	20	47.6%	-2.3	55	26	47.3%	3.2	0.9	0.514	0.375	-0.139
2006	BAL	52	22	42.3%	-5.6	33	11	33.3%	6.5	0.9	0.514	0.813	0.299
2002	PHI	57	27	47.4%	-3.3	38	16	42.1%	4.2	0.9	0.514	0.750	0.236
2002	HOU	24	10	41.7%	-2.8	52	24	46.2%	3.6	0.9	0.514	0.250	-0.264
2013	DAL	51	35	68.6%	7.9	62	40	64.5%	-7.1	0.8	0.513	0.500	-0.013
2016	GNB	66	40	60.6%	4.9	45	28	62.2%	-4.1	0.8	0.513	0.625	0.112
2015	HOU	45	26	57.8%	2.1	39	22	56.4%	-1.3	0.8	0.513	0.563	0.050
2009	SDG	63	34	54.0%	0.5	55	29	52.7%	0.2	0.7	0.512	0.813	0.301
2013	BUF	44	21	47.7%	-2.4	51	24	47.1%	3.1	0.7	0.511	0.375	-0.136
2007	BAL	45	19	42.2%	-4.9	52	22	42.3%	5.6	0.7	0.511	0.313	-0.199
2016	SFO	44	30	68.2%	6.6	66	41	62.1%	-5.9	0.7	0.511	0.125	-0.386
2009	CIN	50	25	50.0%	-1.6	40	19	47.5%	2.3	0.7	0.511	0.625	0.114
2010	CIN	55	27	49.1%	-2.2	45	21	46.7%	2.9	0.7	0.511	0.250	-0.261
2011	NYG	56	32	57.1%	2.2	61	34	55.7%	-1.6	0.7	0.510	0.563	0.052
2008	CHI	50	28	56.0%	1.4	55	30	54.5%	-0.8	0.7	0.510	0.563	0.052
2006	NOR	53	29	54.7%	0.8	41	22	53.7%	-0.2	0.6	0.510	0.625	0.115
2008	MIN	44	19	43.2%	-4.4	47	20	42.6%	5.0	0.6	0.509	0.625	0.116
2009	PIT	56	27	48.2%	-2.8	42	19	45.2%	3.3	0.6	0.509	0.563	0.054
2002	IND	50	26	52.0%	-0.6	51	26	51.0%	1.1	0.5	0.508	0.625	0.117
2006	STL	54	31	57.4%	2.3	55	31	56.4%	-1.8	0.5	0.508	0.500	-0.008
2012	STL	37	19	51.4%	-0.7	53	27	50.9%	1.2	0.5	0.508	0.469	-0.039
2013	CHI	60	35	58.3%	3.1	59	34	57.6%	-2.6	0.5	0.507	0.500	-0.007
2003	CHI	45	22	48.9%	-1.9	57	28	49.1%	2.3	0.4	0.506	0.438	-0.068
2009	ATL	56	29	51.8%	-0.8	51	26	51.0%	1.1	0.3	0.505	0.563	0.057
2009	CAR	40	20	50.0%	-1.3	50	25	50.0%	1.6	0.3	0.505	0.500	-0.005
2004	WAS	44	23	52.3%	-0.4	37	19	51.4%	0.7	0.3	0.504	0.375	-0.129
2002	DAL	26	10	38.5%	-3.8	49	22	44.9%	4.0	0.2	0.503	0.313	-0.191
2013	NOR	57	32	56.1%	1.7	46	26	56.5%	-1.6	0.2	0.502	0.688	0.185
2002	MIN	64	36	56.3%	2.0	53	30	56.6%	-1.8	0.2	0.502	0.375	-0.127
2009	OAK	29	12	41.4%	-3.4	65	31	47.7%	3.5	0.1	0.502	0.313	-0.189
2014	DET	47	25	53.2%	0.0	49	26	53.1%	0.0	0.1	0.501	0.688	0.187
2005	DET	36	18	50.0%	-1.1	53	27	50.9%	1.2	0.0	0.501	0.313	-0.188
2013	NWE	65	36	55.4%	1.5	50	28	56.0%	-1.4	0.0	0.500	0.750	0.250
2004	BUF	61	28	45.9%	-4.4	46	20	43.5%	4.4	0.0	0.500	0.563	0.062
2007	CIN	56	27	48.2%	-2.8	56	27	48.2%	2.8	0.0	0.500	0.438	-0.063
2002	SEA	57	29	50.9%	-1.3	55	28	50.9%	1.2	-0.1	0.499	0.438	-0.062
2008	NYG	69	35	50.7%	-1.7	35	17	48.6%	1.6	-0.1	0.499	0.750	0.251
2017	BUF	44	23	52.3%	-0.4	57	30	52.6%	0.3	-0.1	0.499	0.563	0.064
2015	TEN	40	26	65.0%	4.7	53	33	62.3%	-4.8	-0.1	0.499	0.188	-0.311
2013	STL	49	25	51.0%	-1.0	60	31	51.7%	0.9	-0.2	0.498	0.438	-0.060
2007	WAS	55	27	49.1%	-2.2	49	24	49.0%	2.0	-0.2	0.497	0.563	0.065
2014	MIN	39	21	53.8%	0.3	48	26	54.2%	-0.5	-0.2	0.497	0.438	-0.059
2013	PHI	57	30	52.6%	-0.3	49	26	53.1%	0.0	-0.3	0.496	0.625	0.129
2007	BUF	34	13	38.2%	-5.1	56	25	44.6%	4.8	-0.3	0.495	0.438	-0.058
2006	CHI	50	24	48.0%	-2.6	40	19	47.5%	2.3	-0.3	0.495	0.813	0.317
2006	MIA	46	20	43.5%	-4.4	36	15	41.7%	4.1	-0.3	0.495	0.375	-0.120
2014	ARI	38	16	42.1%	-4.2	41	18	43.9%	3.8	-0.4	0.494	0.688	0.194
2015	KAN	54	31	57.4%	2.3	40	24	60.0%	-2.7	-0.4	0.493	0.688	0.194
2014	NOR	65	39	60.0%	4.5	51	32	62.7%	-4.9	-0.4	0.493	0.438	-0.056
2016	OAK	56	32	57.1%	2.2	57	33	57.9%	-2.7	-0.5	0.493	0.750	0.257
2010	OAK	48	25	52.1%	-0.5	49	26	53.1%	0.0	-0.5	0.493	0.500	0.007
2011	CAR	57	33	57.9%	2.7	56	33	58.9%	-3.2	-0.5	0.492	0.375	-0.117
2004	STL	42	23	54.8%	0.7	56	31	55.4%	-1.2	-0.6	0.491	0.500	0.009
2002	OAK	60	34	56.7%	2.1	57	33	57.9%	-2.7	-0.6	0.491	0.688	0.197
2006	CLE	39	19	48.7%	-1.7	51	26	51.0%	1.1	-0.6	0.490	0.250	-0.240
2014	PIT	55	29	52.7%	-0.2	50	27	54.0%	-0.4	-0.7	0.490	0.688	0.198
2012	CHI	46	23	50.0%	-1.4	41	21	51.2%	0.8	-0.7	0.490	0.625	0.135
2016	CHI	49	25	51.0%	-1.0	59	31	52.5%	0.4	-0.7	0.489	0.188	-0.302
2011	SEA	46	22	47.8%	-2.4	39	19	48.7%	1.7	-0.7	0.489	0.438	-0.051
2013	IND	50	28	56.0%	1.4	41	24	58.5%	-2.2	-0.8	0.488	0.688	0.200
2011	WAS	51	21	41.2%	-6.1	57	25	43.9%	5.3	-0.8	0.487	0.313	-0.175
2010	CLE	42	19	45.2%	-3.3	48	23	47.9%	2.5	-0.8	0.487	0.313	-0.175
2007	CAR	40	20	50.0%	-1.3	46	24	52.2%	0.4	-0.8	0.487	0.438	-0.050
2002	TEN	56	33	58.9%	3.2	45	28	62.2%	-4.1	-0.8	0.487	0.688	0.201
2016	MIA	47	26	55.3%	1.0	51	29	56.9%	-1.9	-0.9	0.487	0.625	0.138
2010	TAM	44	23	52.3%	-0.4	48	26	54.2%	-0.5	-0.9	0.487	0.625	0.138
2006	ARI	54	25	46.3%	-3.7	58	28	48.3%	2.8	-0.9	0.487	0.313	-0.174
2017	NYJ	33	18	54.5%	0.5	52	29	55.8%	-1.4	-0.9	0.486	0.313	-0.174
2014	MIA	68	35	51.5%	-1.1	55	29	52.7%	0.2	-0.9	0.486	0.500	0.014
2005	MIN	51	23	45.1%	-4.1	53	25	47.2%	3.2	-0.9	0.486	0.563	0.077
2010	SEA	50	21	42.0%	-5.6	65	30	46.2%	4.5	-1.0	0.484	0.438	-0.047
2013	ARI	50	26	52.0%	-0.6	48	26	54.2%	-0.5	-1.1	0.484	0.625	0.141
2002	GNB	57	30	52.6%	-0.3	55	30	54.5%	-0.8	-1.1	0.484	0.750	0.266
2009	DEN	52	25	48.1%	-2.6	48	24	50.0%	1.5	-1.1	0.483	0.500	0.017
2005	PHI	41	22	53.7%	0.2	52	29	55.8%	-1.4	-1.2	0.482	0.375	-0.107
2008	SEA	42	21	50.0%	-1.3	51	27	52.9%	0.1	-1.2	0.481	0.250	-0.231
2004	TEN	45	25	55.6%	1.1	54	31	57.4%	-2.3	-1.2	0.481	0.313	-0.169
2017	LAR	69	38	55.1%	1.3	46	27	58.7%	-2.6	-1.2	0.481	0.688	0.206
2014	JAX	32	13	40.6%	-4.0	56	27	48.2%	2.8	-1.2	0.481	0.188	-0.293
2009	NWE	65	34	52.3%	-0.5	40	22	55.0%	-0.7	-1.3	0.480	0.625	0.145
2004	MIN	58	33	56.9%	2.2	63	37	58.7%	-3.5	-1.3	0.479	0.500	0.021
2012	ARI	40	16	40.0%	-5.3	45	20	44.4%	3.9	-1.3	0.479	0.313	-0.167
2013	OAK	42	25	59.5%	2.7	62	37	59.7%	-4.1	-1.4	0.479	0.250	-0.229
2009	DET	36	17	47.2%	-2.1	71	37	52.1%	0.7	-1.4	0.478	0.125	-0.353
2016	BAL	46	24	52.2%	-0.4	47	26	55.3%	-1.0	-1.5	0.477	0.500	0.023
2011	DEN	36	17	47.2%	-2.1	52	27	51.9%	0.6	-1.5	0.477	0.500	0.023
2011	HOU	60	28	46.7%	-3.9	44	21	47.7%	2.4	-1.5	0.477	0.625	0.148
2009	DAL	50	26	52.0%	-0.6	32	18	56.3%	-1.0	-1.6	0.476	0.688	0.212
2015	GNB	52	28	53.8%	0.4	49	28	57.1%	-2.0	-1.6	0.475	0.625	0.150
2011	PIT	53	27	50.9%	-1.2	31	17	54.8%	-0.5	-1.7	0.474	0.750	0.276
2008	JAX	45	25	55.6%	1.1	53	31	58.5%	-2.8	-1.7	0.473	0.313	-0.161
2010	CHI	51	23	45.1%	-4.1	42	20	47.6%	2.3	-1.8	0.473	0.688	0.215
2012	DAL	49	25	51.0%	-1.0	55	30	54.5%	-0.8	-1.8	0.472	0.500	0.028
2013	BAL	52	24	46.2%	-3.6	41	20	48.8%	1.8	-1.8	0.472	0.500	0.028
2002	DEN	58	34	58.6%	3.2	47	30	63.8%	-5.0	-1.8	0.472	0.563	0.091
2017	GNB	42	26	61.9%	3.7	46	30	65.2%	-5.6	-1.9	0.471	0.438	-0.034
2016	SDG	62	32	51.6%	-0.9	66	36	54.5%	-0.9	-1.9	0.471	0.313	-0.159
2007	NYG	55	30	54.5%	0.8	42	25	59.5%	-2.7	-1.9	0.471	0.625	0.154
2013	PIT	53	28	52.8%	-0.2	55	31	56.4%	-1.8	-1.9	0.470	0.500	0.030
2006	SEA	42	22	52.4%	-0.3	44	25	56.8%	-1.6	-1.9	0.470	0.563	0.092
2009	TEN	39	22	56.4%	1.3	56	33	58.9%	-3.2	-2.0	0.470	0.500	0.030
2015	BAL	47	23	48.9%	-2.0	47	25	53.2%	0.0	-2.0	0.469	0.313	-0.157
2014	WAS	48	23	47.9%	-2.5	48	25	52.1%	0.5	-2.0	0.469	0.250	-0.219
2003	BUF	45	21	46.7%	-2.9	45	23	51.1%	0.9	-2.0	0.469	0.375	-0.094
2002	CAR	39	19	48.7%	-1.7	39	21	53.8%	-0.3	-2.0	0.469	0.438	-0.032
2016	KAN	55	25	45.5%	-4.2	53	26	49.1%	2.2	-2.1	0.468	0.750	0.282
2002	NOR	58	31	53.4%	0.2	52	30	57.7%	-2.4	-2.2	0.466	0.563	0.096
2005	NYJ	43	19	44.2%	-3.8	52	26	50.0%	1.6	-2.2	0.466	0.250	-0.216
2004	GNB	52	30	57.7%	2.4	44	28	63.6%	-4.6	-2.3	0.465	0.625	0.160
2008	ARI	65	38	58.5%	3.5	55	35	63.6%	-5.8	-2.3	0.464	0.563	0.098
2009	JAX	47	24	51.1%	-1.0	52	29	55.8%	-1.4	-2.3	0.464	0.438	-0.026
2008	PHI	63	31	49.2%	-2.5	36	19	52.8%	0.1	-2.3	0.464	0.594	0.130
2004	DEN	53	24	45.3%	-4.2	41	20	48.8%	1.8	-2.4	0.463	0.625	0.162
2003	DAL	46	20	43.5%	-4.4	34	16	47.1%	2.1	-2.4	0.463	0.625	0.162
2005	GNB	46	22	47.8%	-2.4	47	25	53.2%	0.0	-2.5	0.462	0.250	-0.212
2003	PIT	44	20	45.5%	-3.4	45	23	51.1%	0.9	-2.5	0.462	0.375	-0.087
2002	ARI	40	22	55.0%	0.7	56	33	58.9%	-3.2	-2.5	0.462	0.313	-0.149
2010	SDG	59	33	55.9%	1.6	43	27	62.8%	-4.2	-2.5	0.461	0.563	0.101
2009	GNB	62	34	54.8%	1.1	46	28	60.9%	-3.6	-2.5	0.461	0.688	0.226
2017	NYG	39	19	48.7%	-1.7	53	29	54.7%	-0.8	-2.6	0.461	0.188	-0.273
2003	STL	68	34	50.0%	-2.1	48	26	54.2%	-0.5	-2.6	0.460	0.750	0.290
2011	SFO	54	22	40.7%	-6.7	34	14	41.2%	4.1	-2.6	0.460	0.813	0.353
2006	OAK	35	10	28.6%	-8.6	62	27	43.5%	5.9	-2.7	0.459	0.125	-0.334
2016	DEN	47	22	46.8%	-3.0	42	22	52.4%	0.3	-2.7	0.459	0.563	0.103
2011	SDG	54	29	53.7%	0.3	49	29	59.2%	-3.0	-2.7	0.459	0.500	0.041
2013	NYG	36	17	47.2%	-2.1	46	25	54.3%	-0.6	-2.7	0.459	0.438	-0.021
2011	JAX	35	17	48.6%	-1.6	43	24	55.8%	-1.2	-2.7	0.458	0.313	-0.145
2011	STL	31	12	38.7%	-4.5	52	26	50.0%	1.6	-2.8	0.456	0.125	-0.331
2005	SFO	28	11	39.3%	-3.9	64	33	51.6%	1.0	-2.9	0.456	0.250	-0.206
2015	DAL	45	20	44.4%	-3.9	49	25	51.0%	1.0	-2.9	0.456	0.250	-0.206
2004	MIA	38	18	47.4%	-2.2	42	23	54.8%	-0.7	-2.9	0.456	0.250	-0.206
2003	MIN	55	31	56.4%	1.8	59	36	61.0%	-4.6	-2.9	0.456	0.563	0.107
2004	PIT	61	28	45.9%	-4.4	33	16	48.5%	1.5	-2.9	0.456	0.938	0.482
2010	KAN	52	31	59.6%	3.4	37	26	70.3%	-6.3	-3.0	0.454	0.625	0.171
2017	TAM	53	26	49.1%	-2.2	53	29	54.7%	-0.8	-3.0	0.454	0.313	-0.141
2010	DEN	52	29	55.8%	1.4	52	32	61.5%	-4.4	-3.0	0.454	0.250	-0.204
2005	BAL	42	16	38.1%	-6.3	42	19	45.2%	3.3	-3.0	0.454	0.375	-0.079
2012	JAX	36	16	44.4%	-3.1	66	35	53.0%	0.1	-3.1	0.453	0.125	-0.328
2006	NYJ	48	22	45.8%	-3.5	46	24	52.2%	0.4	-3.1	0.453	0.625	0.172
2003	CAR	43	18	41.9%	-4.8	41	20	48.8%	1.8	-3.1	0.453	0.688	0.235
2011	DAL	51	25	49.0%	-2.1	49	27	55.1%	-1.0	-3.1	0.453	0.500	0.047
2016	TAM	54	28	51.9%	-0.7	50	29	58.0%	-2.4	-3.1	0.452	0.563	0.111
2006	CAR	32	15	46.9%	-2.0	43	24	55.8%	-1.2	-3.2	0.451	0.500	0.049
2008	WAS	48	23	47.9%	-2.5	42	23	54.8%	-0.7	-3.2	0.451	0.500	0.049
2017	DET	46	26	56.5%	1.6	55	34	61.8%	-4.8	-3.2	0.450	0.563	0.112
2014	SEA	60	31	51.7%	-0.9	37	22	59.5%	-2.3	-3.2	0.450	0.750	0.300
2015	MIA	43	23	53.5%	0.2	50	30	60.0%	-3.4	-3.3	0.449	0.375	-0.074
2008	DEN	55	30	54.5%	0.8	60	36	60.0%	-4.1	-3.3	0.449	0.500	0.051
2003	ATL	46	24	52.2%	-0.4	66	38	57.6%	-2.9	-3.4	0.448	0.313	-0.136
2006	ATL	47	20	42.6%	-5.0	50	25	50.0%	1.6	-3.4	0.448	0.438	-0.010
2013	TEN	49	28	57.1%	2.0	50	32	64.0%	-5.4	-3.5	0.447	0.438	-0.009
2012	MIN	52	28	53.8%	0.4	51	31	60.8%	-3.9	-3.5	0.446	0.625	0.179
2003	JAX	45	20	44.4%	-3.9	44	23	52.3%	0.4	-3.5	0.446	0.313	-0.133
2006	BUF	35	15	42.9%	-3.6	45	24	53.3%	-0.1	-3.7	0.443	0.438	-0.006
2014	BUF	51	22	43.1%	-5.1	44	22	50.0%	1.4	-3.7	0.443	0.563	0.120
2010	DAL	47	28	59.6%	3.0	53	35	66.0%	-6.8	-3.8	0.441	0.375	-0.066
2010	HOU	53	33	62.3%	4.8	59	40	67.8%	-8.6	-3.8	0.441	0.375	-0.066
2011	OAK	47	24	51.1%	-1.0	51	30	58.8%	-2.9	-3.9	0.440	0.500	0.060
2004	DET	43	19	44.2%	-3.8	45	24	53.3%	-0.1	-3.9	0.439	0.375	-0.064
2011	TAM	38	19	50.0%	-1.2	70	40	57.1%	-2.8	-4.0	0.438	0.250	-0.188
2015	ATL	53	29	54.7%	0.8	53	33	62.3%	-4.8	-4.0	0.438	0.500	0.062
2009	KAN	38	18	47.4%	-2.2	53	30	56.6%	-1.8	-4.0	0.438	0.250	-0.188
2005	NOR	42	16	38.1%	-6.3	57	28	49.1%	2.3	-4.0	0.438	0.188	-0.250
2003	BAL	50	21	42.0%	-5.6	33	16	48.5%	1.5	-4.0	0.438	0.625	0.187
2014	TAM	39	21	53.8%	0.3	52	32	61.5%	-4.4	-4.1	0.437	0.125	-0.312
2012	SFO	55	28	50.9%	-1.2	36	22	61.1%	-2.9	-4.1	0.437	0.719	0.282
2011	PHI	66	34	51.5%	-1.1	47	28	59.6%	-3.0	-4.1	0.437	0.500	0.063
2016	MIN	50	23	46.0%	-3.6	44	24	54.5%	-0.6	-4.2	0.436	0.500	0.064
2012	NYJ	47	23	48.9%	-2.0	41	24	58.5%	-2.2	-4.2	0.436	0.375	-0.061
2015	BUF	38	19	50.0%	-1.2	45	27	60.0%	-3.1	-4.3	0.434	0.500	0.066
2013	ATL	52	27	51.9%	-0.6	57	34	59.6%	-3.7	-4.3	0.433	0.250	-0.183
2015	JAX	54	29	53.7%	0.3	57	35	61.4%	-4.7	-4.4	0.432	0.313	-0.120
2007	DEN	51	25	49.0%	-2.1	54	31	57.4%	-2.3	-4.4	0.432	0.438	0.005
2010	CAR	33	10	30.3%	-7.5	66	32	48.5%	3.1	-4.5	0.431	0.125	-0.306
2008	CLE	38	14	36.8%	-6.2	54	27	50.0%	1.7	-4.5	0.431	0.250	-0.181
2002	CIN	42	19	45.2%	-3.3	58	32	55.2%	-1.2	-4.5	0.431	0.125	-0.306
2014	PHI	59	29	49.2%	-2.4	43	25	58.1%	-2.2	-4.5	0.431	0.625	0.194
2009	PHI	52	25	48.1%	-2.6	51	29	56.9%	-1.9	-4.5	0.430	0.688	0.257
2006	SFO	48	20	41.7%	-5.5	62	32	51.6%	0.9	-4.6	0.430	0.438	0.008
2017	HOU	42	22	52.4%	-0.3	54	33	61.1%	-4.3	-4.6	0.429	0.250	-0.179
2015	DEN	44	21	47.7%	-2.4	37	22	59.5%	-2.3	-4.7	0.427	0.750	0.323
2007	CHI	44	18	40.9%	-5.4	52	27	51.9%	0.6	-4.7	0.427	0.438	0.011
2017	PIT	63	32	50.8%	-1.5	39	24	61.5%	-3.3	-4.8	0.427	0.813	0.386
2009	HOU	63	33	52.4%	-0.5	37	24	64.9%	-4.3	-4.8	0.426	0.563	0.137
2015	IND	49	26	53.1%	0.0	53	33	62.3%	-4.8	-4.9	0.425	0.500	0.075
2010	BUF	37	19	51.4%	-0.7	54	33	61.1%	-4.3	-5.0	0.424	0.250	-0.174
2016	HOU	44	18	40.9%	-5.4	44	23	52.3%	0.4	-5.0	0.423	0.563	0.140
2015	NYG	54	24	44.4%	-4.7	52	28	53.8%	-0.4	-5.1	0.422	0.375	-0.047
2004	ATL	51	27	52.9%	-0.1	49	31	63.3%	-5.0	-5.1	0.422	0.688	0.265
2017	MIA	38	20	52.6%	-0.2	51	32	62.7%	-4.9	-5.1	0.422	0.375	-0.047
2003	WAS	45	24	53.3%	0.1	58	36	62.1%	-5.2	-5.1	0.422	0.313	-0.109
2017	IND	40	16	40.0%	-5.3	51	27	52.9%	0.1	-5.2	0.421	0.250	-0.171
2006	TAM	37	16	43.2%	-3.7	48	27	56.3%	-1.5	-5.2	0.421	0.250	-0.171
2005	CLE	39	11	28.2%	-9.7	50	22	44.0%	4.6	-5.2	0.421	0.375	-0.046
2014	TEN	39	19	48.7%	-1.7	63	37	58.7%	-3.5	-5.2	0.419	0.125	-0.294
2016	ATL	63	39	61.9%	5.5	55	40	72.7%	-10.8	-5.3	0.419	0.688	0.268
2015	NOR	58	35	60.3%	4.2	65	44	67.7%	-9.5	-5.3	0.419	0.438	0.019
2016	SEA	56	26	46.4%	-3.8	46	26	56.5%	-1.6	-5.3	0.418	0.656	0.238
2014	IND	60	33	55.0%	1.1	50	33	66.0%	-6.4	-5.3	0.418	0.688	0.269
2012	PHI	50	22	44.0%	-4.6	55	30	54.5%	-0.8	-5.3	0.418	0.250	-0.168
2002	NWE	49	26	53.1%	0.0	54	34	63.0%	-5.3	-5.3	0.418	0.563	0.145
2013	SDG	59	30	50.8%	-1.4	45	28	62.2%	-4.1	-5.4	0.416	0.563	0.146
2008	CIN	33	15	45.5%	-2.5	49	29	59.2%	-3.0	-5.5	0.415	0.281	-0.134
2005	NYG	59	27	45.8%	-4.4	43	24	55.8%	-1.2	-5.5	0.415	0.688	0.272
2005	MIA	52	21	40.4%	-6.6	51	26	51.0%	1.1	-5.5	0.415	0.563	0.148
2012	CLE	39	17	43.6%	-3.7	53	30	56.6%	-1.8	-5.6	0.414	0.313	-0.102
2013	CLE	36	19	52.8%	-0.1	50	32	64.0%	-5.4	-5.6	0.414	0.250	-0.164
2012	OAK	42	18	42.9%	-4.3	54	30	55.6%	-1.3	-5.6	0.413	0.250	-0.163
2004	CLE	41	19	46.3%	-2.8	53	31	58.5%	-2.8	-5.6	0.413	0.250	-0.163
2002	PIT	61	28	45.9%	-4.4	41	23	56.1%	-1.2	-5.6	0.413	0.656	0.243
2015	CHI	50	24	48.0%	-2.6	45	27	60.0%	-3.1	-5.7	0.413	0.375	-0.038
2006	NYG	51	27	52.9%	-0.1	46	30	65.2%	-5.6	-5.7	0.413	0.500	0.087
2003	OAK	34	15	44.1%	-3.1	55	32	58.2%	-2.8	-5.8	0.410	0.250	-0.160
2007	ATL	43	17	39.5%	-5.8	47	25	53.2%	0.0	-5.9	0.410	0.250	-0.160
2004	SFO	41	20	48.8%	-1.8	60	36	60.0%	-4.1	-5.9	0.409	0.125	-0.284
2010	MIN	46	20	43.5%	-4.4	46	26	56.5%	-1.6	-6.0	0.408	0.375	-0.033
2013	MIN	48	25	52.1%	-0.5	63	39	61.9%	-5.5	-6.0	0.407	0.344	-0.063
2006	DET	45	18	40.0%	-5.9	60	32	53.3%	-0.1	-6.0	0.407	0.188	-0.220
2002	SFO	56	27	48.2%	-2.8	52	31	59.6%	-3.4	-6.1	0.406	0.625	0.219
2005	STL	51	24	47.1%	-3.1	62	36	58.1%	-3.1	-6.2	0.405	0.375	-0.030
2003	IND	62	32	51.6%	-0.9	41	27	65.9%	-5.2	-6.2	0.405	0.750	0.345
2006	TEN	38	17	44.7%	-3.2	62	36	58.1%	-3.1	-6.2	0.404	0.500	0.096
2013	GNB	65	33	50.8%	-1.5	57	35	61.4%	-4.7	-6.3	0.404	0.531	0.128
2011	CIN	51	23	45.1%	-4.1	41	24	58.5%	-2.2	-6.3	0.403	0.563	0.160
2015	TAM	51	27	52.9%	-0.1	56	36	64.3%	-6.2	-6.3	0.402	0.375	-0.027
2015	PHI	43	24	55.8%	1.2	61	40	65.6%	-7.6	-6.4	0.401	0.438	0.037
2007	STL	39	17	43.6%	-3.7	57	33	57.9%	-2.7	-6.4	0.401	0.188	-0.213
2008	DET	31	19	61.3%	2.5	64	43	67.2%	-9.0	-6.5	0.400	0.000	-0.400
2017	KAN	50	21	42.0%	-5.6	51	28	54.9%	-0.9	-6.5	0.400	0.625	0.225
2003	SFO	62	29	46.8%	-3.9	44	26	59.1%	-2.6	-6.6	0.399	0.438	0.039
2013	WAS	50	26	52.0%	-0.6	60	38	63.3%	-6.1	-6.7	0.397	0.188	-0.210
2005	TEN	46	22	47.8%	-2.4	56	34	60.7%	-4.2	-6.7	0.397	0.250	-0.147
2017	SFO	51	24	47.1%	-3.1	57	34	59.6%	-3.7	-6.8	0.395	0.375	-0.020
2011	BUF	53	28	52.8%	-0.2	59	38	64.4%	-6.6	-6.8	0.395	0.375	-0.020
2007	TAM	46	20	43.5%	-4.4	35	21	60.0%	-2.4	-6.8	0.395	0.563	0.168
2003	NYG	47	18	38.3%	-7.0	49	26	53.1%	0.0	-6.9	0.393	0.250	-0.143
2008	OAK	37	15	40.5%	-4.7	54	31	57.4%	-2.3	-7.0	0.393	0.313	-0.080
2002	NYG	59	22	37.3%	-9.4	44	21	47.7%	2.4	-7.0	0.393	0.625	0.232
2015	SFO	39	17	43.6%	-3.7	54	32	59.3%	-3.3	-7.0	0.392	0.313	-0.079
2007	MIA	39	20	51.3%	-0.7	52	34	65.4%	-6.4	-7.1	0.391	0.063	-0.328
2012	TEN	36	18	50.0%	-1.1	58	37	63.8%	-6.2	-7.3	0.387	0.375	-0.012
2016	DET	48	26	54.2%	0.5	53	36	67.9%	-7.8	-7.3	0.387	0.563	0.176
2016	CLE	44	24	54.5%	0.6	60	40	66.7%	-8.1	-7.5	0.385	0.063	-0.322
2002	ATL	60	28	46.7%	-3.9	44	27	61.4%	-3.6	-7.5	0.384	0.594	0.209
2014	CAR	47	22	46.8%	-3.0	46	29	63.0%	-4.6	-7.5	0.384	0.469	0.085
2008	NWE	65	33	50.8%	-1.5	45	30	66.7%	-6.1	-7.6	0.383	0.688	0.305
2016	WAS	61	28	45.9%	-4.4	54	32	59.3%	-3.3	-7.7	0.381	0.531	0.150
2013	HOU	40	20	50.0%	-1.3	48	32	66.7%	-6.5	-7.7	0.381	0.125	-0.256
2005	HOU	37	16	43.2%	-3.7	60	36	60.0%	-4.1	-7.8	0.380	0.125	-0.255
2010	STL	56	20	35.7%	-9.8	45	22	48.9%	1.9	-7.8	0.379	0.438	0.058
2014	SFO	44	19	43.2%	-4.4	44	27	61.4%	-3.6	-8.0	0.377	0.500	0.123
2011	KAN	36	12	33.3%	-7.1	51	28	54.9%	-0.9	-8.0	0.376	0.438	0.061
2017	ARI	48	20	41.7%	-5.5	46	27	58.7%	-2.6	-8.1	0.376	0.500	0.124
2013	JAX	41	18	43.9%	-3.8	65	39	60.0%	-4.5	-8.2	0.373	0.250	-0.123
2002	BUF	58	31	53.4%	0.2	50	35	70.0%	-8.4	-8.3	0.373	0.500	0.127
2017	CLE	39	19	48.7%	-1.7	46	31	67.4%	-6.6	-8.3	0.372	0.000	-0.372
2009	SEA	48	19	39.6%	-6.5	55	31	56.4%	-1.8	-8.3	0.372	0.313	-0.060
2004	DAL	40	21	52.5%	-0.3	45	32	71.1%	-8.1	-8.3	0.372	0.375	0.003
2007	DET	50	25	50.0%	-1.6	64	41	64.1%	-7.0	-8.6	0.368	0.438	0.069
2009	BUF	38	12	31.6%	-8.2	50	27	54.0%	-0.4	-8.6	0.367	0.375	0.008
2008	TAM	56	22	39.3%	-7.8	36	20	55.6%	-0.9	-8.6	0.367	0.563	0.195
2017	DEN	48	19	39.6%	-6.5	41	24	58.5%	-2.2	-8.7	0.366	0.313	-0.053
2011	IND	38	16	42.1%	-4.2	57	35	61.4%	-4.7	-8.9	0.363	0.125	-0.238
2006	GNB	49	16	32.7%	-10.0	45	23	51.1%	0.9	-9.1	0.359	0.500	0.141
2003	DET	38	18	47.4%	-2.2	43	30	69.8%	-7.2	-9.3	0.356	0.313	-0.044
2008	HOU	61	28	45.9%	-4.4	47	30	63.8%	-5.0	-9.4	0.355	0.500	0.145
2012	KAN	37	10	27.0%	-9.7	64	34	53.1%	0.0	-9.7	0.351	0.125	-0.226
2012	SDG	47	22	46.8%	-3.0	40	28	70.0%	-6.7	-9.7	0.350	0.438	0.087
2010	NYJ	50	20	40.0%	-6.6	43	26	60.5%	-3.2	-9.7	0.350	0.688	0.337
2007	NYJ	49	18	36.7%	-8.0	40	23	57.5%	-1.7	-9.8	0.349	0.250	-0.099
2002	DET	43	18	41.9%	-4.8	64	39	60.9%	-5.0	-9.8	0.348	0.188	-0.161
2003	ARI	43	18	41.9%	-4.8	60	37	61.7%	-5.1	-10.0	0.347	0.250	-0.097
2010	PHI	58	31	53.4%	0.2	43	33	76.7%	-10.2	-10.0	0.346	0.625	0.279
2015	CLE	47	18	38.3%	-7.0	62	36	58.1%	-3.1	-10.0	0.346	0.188	-0.158
2012	BUF	48	24	50.0%	-1.5	55	38	69.1%	-8.8	-10.3	0.342	0.375	0.033
2009	CHI	51	24	47.1%	-3.1	56	37	66.1%	-7.2	-10.3	0.341	0.438	0.097
2003	SDG	46	22	47.8%	-2.4	50	35	70.0%	-8.4	-10.9	0.333	0.250	-0.083
2014	NYJ	47	17	36.2%	-8.0	49	29	59.2%	-3.0	-10.9	0.332	0.250	-0.082
2008	STL	29	10	34.5%	-5.4	53	34	64.2%	-5.8	-11.2	0.327	0.125	-0.202
2016	LAR	34	16	47.1%	-2.1	52	37	71.2%	-9.4	-11.4	0.324	0.250	-0.074
2016	NYJ	54	19	35.2%	-9.7	51	29	56.9%	-1.9	-11.6	0.321	0.313	-0.009
2009	STL	34	11	32.4%	-7.1	59	36	61.0%	-4.6	-11.7	0.320	0.063	-0.257
2009	NYG	56	27	48.2%	-2.8	62	42	67.7%	-9.1	-11.8	0.318	0.500	0.182
2007	TEN	55	20	36.4%	-9.2	40	24	60.0%	-2.7	-12.0	0.316	0.625	0.309
2005	ARI	46	13	28.3%	-11.4	44	24	54.5%	-0.6	-12.1	0.314	0.313	-0.002
2004	NYG	54	26	48.1%	-2.7	50	36	72.0%	-9.4	-12.1	0.313	0.375	0.062
2004	OAK	41	20	48.8%	-1.8	56	41	73.2%	-11.2	-13.0	0.299	0.313	0.013
2005	BUF	49	17	34.7%	-9.0	52	33	63.5%	-5.4	-14.4	0.278	0.313	0.034

The biggest overachiever in terms of winning percentage relative to red zone success was the 2004 Steelers. Pittsburgh went 15-1 but was below-average in the red zone! That’s pretty tough to do, with the Steelers offense producing 4.4 fewer touchdowns than expected. Pittsburgh led the NFL in points allowed and yards allowed, so this was a defensive-driven team, but this was also extremely talented offense.

Alan Faneca and Jeff Hartings both were first-team All-Pros, while a third offensive linemen (LT Marvel Smith) joined them in the Pro Bowl. A rookie Ben Roethlisberger was the quarterback, and Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress were in the primes of their careers (Ward made the Pro Bowl, while Burress led the NFL in one advanced statistic). At running back, Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley shared duties effectively enough to help the Steelers finish second in rushing yards, and first among all teams in rushing yards by running backs. And the Steelers employed blocking fullback Dan Kreider and blocking TE Jerame Tuman to great success.

But still, Pittsburgh was one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL. A year later, though, the Steelers would be one of the best.

Tagged as: Red Zone

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