In March, I wrote about the shrinking middle class of quarterbacks: most teams were either paying superstar dollars to a quarterback or going with a cheap player still on a rookie contract. In fact, at the time of the article, there were just 7 teams that didn’t clearly fit that category: the Redskins (who had been paying Alex Smith and have since drafted Dwayne Haskins), the Dolphins (who appeared to be tanking on the quarterback position), and then five teams truly stuck in no man’s land: the Titans and Bucs, who were using their 5th-year option on Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, and the Bengals (still hanging on to Andy Dalton), the Jaguars (traded for Nick Foles), and the Broncos (traded for Joe Flacco).
At the halfway mark of the season, I wanted to check in on the league’s passing offenses by looking at two variables: salary cap dollars allocated to quarterbacks and offensive Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. That is shown in the graph below.
Or, better yet, let’s redraw that graph.
The green circle is obviously the place to be: this is where, for now, the Cowboys, Chiefs, Ravens, and Texans are with Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson. Jackson probably isn’t an MVP-caliber quarterback just yet, but the Ravens certainly aren’t complaining; the other three are in the MVP discussion, or in the case of Mahomes, have already won one.
The blue circle is a good place to be, too. This is what these teams were hoping for — and expected — when they handed large contracts to Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers, and also what they were hoping for (and maybe weren’t quite so confident that they’d get) from Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Derek Carr. Life is good in the blue circle.
The red circle is the mash unit, These are teams that have been burned by either injuries to Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger or Alex Smith, or by giving a large contract to Eli Manning. Next year, the Giants should be on the far left of this chart with Daniel Jones, although whether they are at the top or bottom of the Y-Axis is the real question.
The yellow circle — no, you don’t want me to use that color here — is the warning circle. You’ve got the Bears and Mitchell Trubisky, along with the highly drafted quarterbacks from the 2018 Draft : the Browns (Baker Mayfield), the Jets (Sam Darnold), the Dolphins (Josh Rosen, via trade of course) — and maaaybe the Bills (Josh Allen).
The Patriots and 49ers are a bit of their own circle. They have franchise quarterbacks but are not paying them huge cap dollars in 2019. In the case of Tom Brady, that’s because he’s taken less than market deals; in the case of Jimmy Garopppolo, it’s because his contract was massively frontloaded. The two teams are also aligned (and separated from the Falcons) by the fact that they have dominant defenses this year.
Meanwhile, the Bucs and Titans are right next to each other, as it is written must always be.
What stands out to you?