With three weeks left, the NFL playoff picture is nearly complete. In the AFC, the Chiefs, Patriots, and Chargers are all going to make the postseason; in 2017, Kansas City and New England won their divisions, and the Chargers won 9 games.
The Steelers and Ravens are favorites to go to the postseason; Pittsburgh won the AFC North last year, and Baltimore won 9 games. The AFC South will likely go to Houston, and that would be the only “surprise” in the AFC this year. The Texans won just 4 games last year, although expectations were much higher this year with a healthy Deshaun Watson. The Titans, who made the playoffs last year, are still technically in the hunt for the division title, which would make the AFC (lack of) turnover even more extreme.
Things aren’t much different in the NFC. The Saints and Rams have already clinched their division titles for the second year in a row. The Seahawks and Cowboys, who each won 9 games last year, will likely be in the postseason this year. The Bears are the Texans of the NFC, going from 5-11 to division champion with a first round quarterback from the 2017 Draft. Nobody in the NFC wants the 6th spot, but the Vikings — who went 13-3 last year — are the current favorite.
Think about that: if the season ended today, then 10 of the 12 playoff teams in 2018 had a winning record in 2017. There is still time for the Dolphins or Colts to snag the 6 seed in the AFC from the AFC North runner up, but in the NFC, the Eagles and Panthers (who both won 11+ games last year) are on deck for the 6 seed if the Vikings falter.
How does that compare to prior years? Assuming 10 of the 12 2018 playoff teams — 83% — had a winning record in 2017, that would stand out as a pretty big outlier. It would mark a reversion to the 1980s, pre-salary cap and free agency era of the NFL, where parity didn’t play a central role. The graph below shows, for each year since 1970, the percentage of teams that made the postseason and had a winning record the prior year.
The last time that only two teams made the playoffs after having a .500 or worse record the prior season was 1989. That year, Pittsburgh and Denver made it to the postseason, after going 5-11 and 8-8 the previous year.