Before last year’s Super Bowl, I wrote that Carolina led the NFL in points scored in a unique way. What made the Panthers scoring success so unusual? Most notably were these two facts:
- Carolina ranked only 11th in yards, the worst-ever ranking for the top-scoring team; and
- Carolina ranked only 9th in NY/A, the worst-ever ranking for the top-scoring team.
With the Patriots, you may be surprised to learn that while New England finished 1st in points allowed, the defense ranked just 16th in DVOA. There are a few explanations here:
- The Patriots faced by far the easiest schedule of any defense in the NFL. New England’s SOS was -7.1%, while Tennessee was 31st at -4.2%, and the Bills were 30th at -3.0%. The Patriots would be tied for 8th in DVOA if that metric was not adjusted for strength of schedule, which is why the defense falls to 16th with those adjustments.
- New England had just 11 turnovers, tied with the Falcons for fewest in the league. Combined with a generally good offense, and the average opponent’s drive against New England started inside the 25-yard line, the best in the league. That means the Patriots defense had a lot of turf behind them, making life much easier for the defense.
- Opposing kickers missed 8 of 29 attempts, including three from within 45 yards. In addition, the Patriots were 8th in red zone defense and 3rd in goal-to-go defense, which helps the points allowed numbers.
New England’s defense was hardly bad by traditional numbers: the Patriots ranked 8th in total yards allowed, 6th in Net Yards per pass Attempt allowed, and 3rd and 4th in yards per carry allowed and rush defense DVOA. That’s a good defense, but again, is boosted by the very easy schedule.
How easy? Well, Russell Wilson threw for 348 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs against the Patriots, averaging 9.6 ANY/A. And Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 6.6 ANY/A against New England, which is really good considering he was at 5.00 overall. Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton both averaged 1.3 more ANY/A against the Patriots than they did during the entire 2016 season.
On average, the 16 quarterbacks the Patriots faced (including Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor two times) averaged 5.85 ANY/A against New England, a hair better than they did against the rest of the NFL (5.75). [1]This is the weighted average result, based on attempts. Take a look:
| Passer | Tm | G | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | ANY/A | Avg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 1 | 25 | 37 | 348 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 9.60 | 6.56 | 3.04 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | 2 | 30 | 53 | 405 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.57 | 4.99 | 1.58 |
| Carson Palmer | CRD | 1 | 24 | 37 | 271 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 7.30 | 6.03 | 1.27 |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 1 | 21 | 31 | 254 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7.79 | 6.53 | 1.26 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 1 | 32 | 45 | 387 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.49 | 6.27 | 1.22 |
| Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 1 | 16 | 30 | 206 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 6.20 | 5.92 | 0.28 |
| Joe Flacco | RAV | 1 | 37 | 52 | 324 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 5.57 | 5.39 | 0.18 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | CLE | 1 | 14 | 24 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Landry Jones | PIT | 1 | 29 | 47 | 281 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.45 | 5.71 | -0.26 |
| Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 2 | 46 | 77 | 429 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5.50 | 6.07 | -0.57 |
| Jared Goff | RAM | 1 | 14 | 32 | 161 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1.56 | 2.82 | -1.26 |
| Brock Osweiler | HTX | 1 | 24 | 41 | 196 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 3.02 | 4.34 | -1.32 |
| Trevor Siemian | DEN | 1 | 25 | 40 | 282 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 4.68 | 6.04 | -1.36 |
| Matt Moore | MIA | 1 | 24 | 34 | 205 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.88 | 8.48 | -2.60 |
| Average | 361 | 580 | 3931 | 20 | 12 | 31 | 217 | 5.85 | 5.74 | 0.11 |
And that 0.10 difference is arguably inflated by facing Matt Moore, who had a great game against the Jets which inflated his regular season numbers. Take out Moore, and the Patriots defense’s average opposing QB averaged 5.52 ANY/A against New England, and just 5.27 ANY/A [2]Again, using a weighted average. against the rest of the NFL. So when it comes to Matt Ryan in Super Bowl LI, if he does very well against “the #1 scoring defense in the NFL”, we really shouldn’t be surprised. Ryan, of course, averaged 9.03 ANY/A during the regular season; if he averages a quarter ANY/A more than that in 10 days, the Patriots will be in significant trouble.
Perhaps most telling on the above list is the lack of any high-end caliber quarterbacks. Excluding Moore, Wilson and Dalton were the two best passers the Patriots faced; they ranked 12th and 13th in ANY/A during the regular season. New England did face Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship Game, of course, and Roethlisberger (6.15 ANY/A) was held slightly below his regular-season average (6.98). But as far as “number one scoring defenses” go, this is a pretty nonthreatening defense to face for the top quarterback in the NFL in 2016.