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FSU is a heavy favorite to wind up in the national title game again

FSU is a heavy favorite to wind up in the national title game again.

The Simple Rating System is a set of computer rankings that is focused on only two variables: strength of schedule and margin of victory. I publish weekly college football SRS ratings each season, and you can read more about the SRS there. Last year, I took the Las Vegas point spreads for over 200 college football games to come up with a set of power rankings. By taking every data point, and using Excel to iterate the ratings hundreds of times, I was able to generate a set of implied team ratings.

Well on Friday, the Golden Nugget released the point spreads for 200 games (h/t to RJ Bell). You might not think we can do much with just a couple hundred games, but by using an SRS-style process, those point spreads can help us determine the implied ratings that Las Vegas has assigned to each team.

We don’t have a full slate of games, but we do have at least 1 game for 77 different teams. Theoretically, this is different than using actual game results: one game can be enough to come up with Vegas’ implied rating for the team. Purdue may only have a spread for one game, but that’s enough. Why? Because Purdue is a 21-point underdog at a neutral field (Lucas Oil) against Notre Dame, and we have point spreads for the Fighting Irish in ten other games. Since we can be reasonably confident in Notre Dame’s rating, that makes us able to be pretty confident about Purdue’s rating, too.

The system is pretty simple: I took the point spread for each game and turned it into a marvin of victory, after assigning 3 points to the road team in each game. For example, Alabama is a 6-point home favorite against Auburn. So for that game, we assume Vegas believes the Tide are three points better than the Tigers; if we do this for each of the other 199 games, and then iterate the results hundreds of times, we can come up with a set of power ratings.

Two quick notes about the rankings.

1) These are not intended to be surprise. I know, we’re using a complicated, somewhat mysterious1 formula to derive them, but all these ratings are intended to do is quantify public perception.

2) These are not “my” ratings. These are simply the implied ratings based on the Vegas points spreads; nothing more, nothing less.

As it turns out, Vegas sees a three-headed tier at the top of college football: Florida State, Alabama, and Oregon have essentially identical ratings, and are a field goal better than the rest of college football. Now each team’s SRS rating has little meaning in the abstract, but the ratings are very useful in a relative sense. For example, since Florida State has an SRS rating of 17.5, it means the Seminoles would be a two touchdown favorite at a neutral site against a team with a rating of 3.5 (Wisconsin, for example). In the table below, I’ve included the number of games for which we have point spreads for each team on the far left. The “MOV” column shows the home field-adjusted average point spread for that team, the “SOS” column shows the average rating of each team’s opponents (for only the number of games for which we have lines), and the “SRS” column shows the school’s implied SRS rating.

RkTeamGMOVSOSSRS
1Florida St.820.1-2.417.6
2Alabama816.21.217.4
3Oregon918.2-0.917.3
4Auburn98.65.514.1
5LSU86.14.710.8
6Oklahoma914.2-3.510.7
7Georgia99.6-0.19.5
8South Carolina75.73.79.4
9UCLA98.90.49.3
10Ohio St.611-1.89.2
11USC911.9-2.89.2
12Stanford86.61.78.3
13Michigan St.4-0.66.86.2
14Baylor65.9-0.25.8
15Mississippi70.23.63.8
16Clemson96.1-2.53.7
17Wisconsin55.2-1.73.5
18Texas A&M8-3.36.43
19North Carolina98.2-5.92.3
20Mississippi St.3-7.29.32.1
21Michigan61.6-0.11.5
22Oklahoma St.7-1.831.2
23Florida8-5.36.10.8
24Washington6-1.82.40.6
25Kansas St.91.6-10.6
26Texas9-0.10.70.5
27Missouri6-1.21.60.5
28Arizona St.7-2.93.20.4
29Notre Dame110-0.1-0.1
30Miami (Fl)91.9-2.4-0.4
31Nebraska60.9-1.7-0.8
32BYU510.1-11.7-1.6
33Arizona7-3.41.4-2
34Penn St.3-4.52.5-2
35Oregon St.6-6.63.7-2.9
36Louisville81.2-4.1-2.9
37Texas Tech6-4.31.3-2.9
38Central Florida210.8-14.1-3.3
39Virginia Tech70.9-4.5-3.7
40Duke1-62.3-3.7
41Utah4-128.2-3.8
42Navy3-1.3-2.6-3.9
43Iowa4-0.4-4.5-4.9
44Pittsburgh4-0.3-4.9-5.2
45Georgia Tech4-7.82.3-5.5
46Tennessee8-11.15.2-5.9
47TCU4-4.4-1.9-6.2
48Syracuse3-11.24.9-6.3
49Northwestern6-2.3-4.2-6.4
50Arkansas7-15.58.4-7.1
51Boise St.72.9-10-7.2
52Minnesota3-7.30-7.3
53Washington St.2-16.89-7.8
54Fresno St.2-4.3-4-8.2
55Cincinnati40.8-9.6-8.8
56W.Virginia1-27.517.4-10.1
57Colorado14-14.2-10.2
58Vanderbilt3-121.5-10.5
59West Virginia7-11.40.4-11
60Illinois1-6.5-6.4-12.9
61Iowa St.3-11.7-1.7-13.4
62San Diego St.3-10.8-2.6-13.4
63Colorado St.2-5.5-8.7-14.2
64Virginia6-150.5-14.5
65Kentucky1-12-2.9-14.9
66N. Carolina St.3-23.37.9-15.5
67Nevada2-0.5-15.1-15.6
68California6-22.36-16.2
69Army1-13-3.9-16.9
70Boston College5-180.2-17.8
71SMU1-13-6.2-19.2
72Wake Forest1-233.7-19.3
73Connecticut3-15.2-5.9-21
74Purdue1-21-0.1-21.1
75Kansas1-220.6-21.4
76UNLV2-14.3-8.8-23.1
77South Florida2-20-6.1-26.1

FSU is, on average, a 20-point favorite in its games! But that doesn’t mean the Seminoles are better than Oregon or Alabama: after adjusting for strength of schedule, those teams catch up to Florida State. The top of the ratings offers no surprises: Florida State returns Jameis Winston, Oregon brings back Marcus Mariota, and even in a post-A.J. McCarron world, Alabama figures to be Alabama.

Auburn comes in at #4, which feels about right. The Tigers finished 9th in the last edition of the 2013 SRS, but Auburn clearly improved as the season went along last year. With Nick Marshall and Gus Malzahn (even with Greg Robinson and Tre Mason now in St. Louis), Auburn should be a top-five team in 2014.

Oklahoma rounds out the top five, and what’s most interesting about the Sooners is the easy strength of schedule. The Sooners face Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, and Tennessee out of conference this year; the Vols are not expected to be very good, and lines aren’t even up yet for the two cupcake games. In other words, OU’s easy strength of schedule is really a reflection of how Vegas feels about the Big 12, which is to say, not very good (and the line isn’t up yet for the Oklahoma-Kansas game, so the schedule is even easier than these ratings imply). Baylor comes in at #14, Oklahoma State at #21, Kansas State at #24, and Texas at #25.  In recent years, we’ve grown accustomed to the Big Ten and ACC being mediocre, but Vegas seems to be pessimistic about the Big 12 in 2014.

Speaking of the Big Ten, the oddsmakers aren’t very high on the midwest of the country this year. Ohio State is only ranked 10th here, although the Buckeyes are 6th in projected MOV because of their below-average schedule. Michigan State comes in at #13, Wisconsin at #17, and Michigan at #21 is the only other Big Ten school in the top 30.

Let me close with a look at all 200 games, sorted from most impressive line to least impressive. What does most impressive mean? Take the top game on the list: Florida State is listed as a 24-point home favorite against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are nearly perfectly average with a rating of -0.1, so that would imply that FSU is 20.9 points better than average. That’s the top implied game rating of the 200 games listed. Of course, each team’s rating in the table above is simply the average of their implied ratings for each game.

TeamOppLocLineSOSSRS
FLORIDA ST.NOTRE DAMEHome-24-0.120.9
OREGONCALIFORNIARoad-34-16.220.8
OREGONARIZONAHome-25-220
ALABAMAARKANSASRoad-24-7.119.9
OREGONUTAHRoad-20-3.819.2
ALABAMAFLORIDAHome-210.818.8
FLORIDA ST.OKLAHOMA ST.Neut-171.218.2
OREGONWASHINGTON ST.Road-23-7.818.2
FLORIDA ST.SYRACUSERoad-21-6.317.7
FLORIDA ST.CLEMSONHome-173.717.7
OREGONWASHINGTONHome-200.617.6
FLORIDA ST.N. CAROLINA ST.Road-30-15.517.5
ALABAMAW.VIRGINIANeut-27.5-10.117.4
ALABAMATENNESSEERoad-20-5.917.1
FLORIDA ST.LOUISVILLERoad-17-2.917.1
FLORIDA ST.MIAMI (FL)Road-14.5-0.417.1
ALABAMAAUBURNHome-614.117.1
AUBURNKANSAS ST.Road-130.616.6
ALABAMATEXAS A&MHome-16.5316.5
ALABAMALSURoad-2.510.816.3
OREGONMICHIGAN ST.Home-136.216.2
ALABAMAMISSISSIPPIRoad-93.815.8
OREGONUCLARoad-39.315.3
OREGONSTANFORDHome-108.315.3
FLORIDA ST.FLORIDAHome-170.814.8
USCCALIFORNIAHome-34-16.214.8
AUBURNMISSISSIPPI ST.Road-9.52.114.6
AUBURNALABAMARoad617.414.4
AUBURNLSUHome-6.510.814.3
AUBURNTEXAS A&MHome-14314
AUBURNARKANSASHome-24-7.113.9
AUBURNMISSISSIPPIRoad-73.813.8
OKLAHOMABAYLORHome-115.813.8
AUBURNSOUTH CAROLINAHome-79.413.4
OREGONOREGON ST.Road-13-2.913.1
LSUFLORIDARoad-90.812.8
OKLAHOMAIOWA ST.Road-22.5-13.412.1
GEORGIAAUBURNHome-114.112.1
LSUALABAMAHome2.517.411.9
OKLAHOMAKANSAS ST.Home-140.611.6
AUBURNGEORGIARoad19.511.5
UCLAOREGONHome317.311.3
OHIO ST.VIRGINIA TECHHome-18-3.711.3
USCOREGON ST.Home-17-2.911.1
LSUMISSISSIPPI ST.Home-122.111.1
LSUTEXAS A&MRoad-5311
OKLAHOMATCURoad-14-6.210.8
UCLAUSCHome-4.59.210.7
LSUAUBURNRoad6.514.110.6
GEORGIAVANDERBILTHome-24-10.510.5
GEORGIAMISSOURIRoad-70.510.5
LSUWISCONSINNeut-73.510.5
GEORGIAARKANSASRoad-14.5-7.110.4
UCLAARIZONA ST.Road-70.410.4
STANFORDOREGONRoad1017.310.3
OKLAHOMATENNESSEEHome-19-5.910.1
OHIO ST.NAVYNeut-14-3.910.1
SOUTH CAROLINAAUBURNRoad714.110.1
OKLAHOMATEXAS TECHRoad-10-2.910.1
UCLAVIRGINIARoad-21.5-14.510
OHIO ST.PENN ST.Road-9-210
LSUARKANSASRoad-14-7.19.9
STANFORDARIZONA ST.Road-6.50.49.9
GEORGIAFLORIDANeut-90.89.8
SOUTH CAROLINAFLORIDARoad-60.89.8
STANFORDUSCHome-3.59.29.7
GEORGIACLEMSONHome-93.79.7
SOUTH CAROLINACLEMSONRoad-33.79.7
SOUTH CAROLINAGEORGIAHome-39.59.5
OKLAHOMATEXASNeut-90.59.5
GEORGIASOUTH CAROLINARoad39.49.4
STANFORDUCLARoad39.39.3
OKLAHOMAOKLAHOMA ST.Home-111.29.2
USCUTAHRoad-10-3.89.2
OHIO ST.CINCINNATIHome-21-8.89.2
SOUTH CAROLINATENNESSEEHome-18-5.99.1
SOUTH CAROLINATEXAS A&MHome-939
UCLAARIZONAHome-14-29
OKLAHOMAWEST VIRGINIARoad-17-119
STANFORDNOTRE DAMERoad-6-0.18.9
UCLACALIFORNIARoad-22-16.28.8
UCLATEXASNeut-80.58.5
USCARIZONARoad-7.5-28.5
SOUTH CAROLINAMISSOURIHome-110.58.5
USCARIZONA ST.Home-110.48.4
LSUMISSISSIPPIHome-7.53.88.3
UCLASTANFORDHome-38.38.3
USCBOSTON COLLEGERoad-23-17.88.2
OHIO ST.MICHIGAN ST.Road16.28.2
GEORGIATENNESSEEHome-17-5.98.1
BAYLORWEST VIRGINIARoad-16-118
USCUCLARoad4.59.37.8
USCSTANFORDRoad3.58.37.8
MICHIGAN ST.OREGONRoad1317.37.3
BAYLOROKLAHOMA ST.Home-91.27.2
STANFORDUTAHHome-14-3.87.2
MICHIGAN ST.OHIO ST.Home-19.27.2
UCLAWASHINGTONRoad-3.50.67.1
STANFORDOREGON ST.Home-13-2.97.1
USCNOTRE DAMEHome-10-0.16.9
BAYLORTEXAS TECHRoad-6.5-2.96.6
BAYLORTEXASRoad-30.56.5
OHIO ST.MICHIGANHome-81.56.5
MISSISSIPPILSURoad7.510.86.3
MICHIGAN ST.MICHIGANHome-7.51.56
GEORGIAGEORGIA TECHHome-14-5.55.5
MISSISSIPPIALABAMAHome917.45.4
MISSISSIPPITEXAS A&MRoad135
OKLAHOMA ST.WEST VIRGINIAHome-19-115
NORTH CAROLINASAN DIEGO ST.Home-21-13.44.6
CLEMSONN. CAROLINA ST.Home-23-15.54.5
MICHIGANOHIO ST.Road89.24.2
MICHIGAN ST.NEBRASKAHome-8-0.84.2
WISCONSINIOWARoad-6-4.94.1
CLEMSONLOUISVILLEHome-10-2.94.1
MISSISSIPPIAUBURNHome714.14.1
TEXAS A&MARKANSASNeut-11-7.13.9
TEXAS A&MALABAMARoad16.517.43.9
STANFORDCALIFORNIARoad-17-16.23.8
WISCONSINLSUNeut710.83.8
CLEMSONWAKE FORESTRoad-20-19.33.7
FLORIDAFLORIDA ST.Road1717.63.6
CLEMSONFLORIDA ST.Road1717.63.6
BAYLORKANSAS ST.Home-60.63.6
WISCONSINNORTHWESTERNRoad-7-6.43.6
CLEMSONGEORGIARoad99.53.5
CLEMSONGEORGIA TECHRoad-6-5.53.5
TEXAS A&MMISSOURIHome-60.53.5
CLEMSONSOUTH CAROLINAHome39.43.4
TEXAS A&MSOUTH CAROLINARoad99.43.4
WASHINGTONARIZONA ST.Home-60.43.4
NORTH CAROLINAVIRGINIA TECHHome-10-3.73.3
CLEMSONNORTH CAROLINAHome-42.33.3
CLEMSONBOSTON COLLEGERoad-18-17.83.2
WISCONSINNEBRASKAHome-7-0.83.2
MISSISSIPPITENNESSEEHome-12-5.93.1
TEXAS A&MAUBURNRoad1414.13.1
MISSISSIPPI ST.TEXAS A&MHome-333
WASHINGTONUCLAHome3.59.32.8
KANSAS ST.BAYLORRoad65.82.8
TEXAS A&MLSUHome510.82.8
WISCONSINMINNESOTAHome-13-7.32.7
BAYLOROKLAHOMARoad1110.72.7
OKLAHOMA ST.OKLAHOMARoad1110.72.7
NORTH CAROLINACLEMSONRoad43.72.7
ARIZONAWASHINGTONHome-50.62.6
NORTH CAROLINAVIRGINIARoad-14-14.52.5
NORTH CAROLINADUKERoad-3-3.72.3
TEXASOKLAHOMA ST.Road21.22.2
NOTRE DAMEUSCRoad109.22.2
ARIZONA ST.OREGON ST.Road-2-2.92.1
TEXAS A&MMISSISSIPPI ST.Road32.12.1
NOTRE DAMELOUISVILLEHome-8-2.92.1
ARIZONA ST.ARIZONARoad-1-22
MICHIGANPENN ST.Home-7-22
NORTH CAROLINAPITTSBURGHHome-10-5.21.8
MISSISSIPPIBOISE ST.Neut-9-7.21.8
NOTRE DAMENORTH CAROLINAHome-2.52.31.8
TEXAS A&MMISSISSIPPIHome-13.81.8
MISSISSIPPI ST.LSURoad1210.81.8
KANSAS ST.OKLAHOMA ST.Home-3.51.21.7
MICHIGANMINNESOTAHome-12-7.31.7
TEXASOKLAHOMANeut910.71.7
MICHIGANMICHIGAN ST.Road7.56.21.7
WASHINGTONOREGON ST.Home-7.5-2.91.6
FLORIDATENNESSEERoad-4.5-5.91.6
NORTH CAROLINAMIAMI (FL)Road1-0.41.6
MISSISSIPPI ST.AUBURNHome9.514.11.6
NORTH CAROLINAN. CAROLINA ST.Home-20-15.51.5
MIAMI (FL)GEORGIA TECHRoad-4-5.51.5
NOTRE DAMEMICHIGANHome-31.51.5
FLORIDAVANDERBILTRoad-9-10.51.5
ARIZONA ST.NOTRE DAMEHome-4.5-0.11.4
TEXASBYUHome-6-1.61.4
MISSOURISOUTH CAROLINARoad119.41.4
TEXASUCLANeut89.31.3
OREGON ST.OREGONHome1317.31.3
ARIZONA ST.USCRoad119.21.2
NEBRASKAMICHIGAN ST.Road86.21.2
MISSOURITENNESSEERoad-4-5.91.1
KANSAS ST.TEXAS TECHHome-7-2.91.1
OKLAHOMA ST.TEXAS TECHHome-7-2.91.1
KANSAS ST.TEXASHome-3.50.51
MISSISSIPPIARKANSASRoad-5-7.10.9
MISSOURIFLORIDARoad30.80.8
KANSAS ST.TCURoad-4-6.20.8
OKLAHOMA ST.FLORIDA ST.Neut1717.60.6
KANSAS ST.KANSASHome-25-21.40.6
FLORIDAGEORGIANeut99.50.5
FLORIDAMISSOURIHome-30.50.5
NORTH CAROLINANOTRE DAMERoad2.5-0.10.4
FLORIDASOUTH CAROLINAHome69.40.4
WASHINGTONOREGONRoad2017.30.3
MIAMI (FL)NORTH CAROLINAHome-12.30.3
TEXASTCUHome-9.5-6.20.3
LOUISVILLEBOSTON COLLEGERoad-15-17.80.2
MIAMI (FL)FLORIDA ST.Home14.517.60.1
MIAMI (FL)LOUISVILLERoad0-2.90.1
TEXASKANSAS ST.Road3.50.60.1
OKLAHOMA ST.KANSAS ST.Road3.50.60.1
MISSOURITEXAS A&MRoad630
MISSOURIARKANSASHome-10-7.1-0.1
NOTRE DAMEPURDUENeut-21-21.1-0.1
MICHIGANNOTRE DAMERoad3-0.1-0.1
TEXASBAYLORHome35.8-0.2
OKLAHOMA ST.BAYLORRoad95.8-0.2
WASHINGTONWASHINGTON ST.Road-4.5-7.8-0.3
KANSAS ST.OKLAHOMARoad1410.7-0.3
MICHIGANNORTHWESTERNRoad-3-6.4-0.4
NEBRASKAMIAMI (FL)Home-3-0.4-0.4
MISSOURIGEORGIAHome79.5-0.5
OKLAHOMA ST.TEXASHome-20.5-0.5
BYUVIRGINIAHome-17-14.5-0.5
KANSAS ST.WEST VIRGINIARoad-7.5-11-0.5
NEBRASKAWISCONSINRoad73.5-0.5
FLORIDAALABAMARoad2117.4-0.6
ARIZONA ST.UCLAHome79.3-0.7
NOTRE DAMESTANFORDHome68.3-0.7
NOTRE DAMESYRACUSENeut-5.5-6.3-0.8
PENN ST.CENTRAL FLORIDANeut-2.5-3.3-0.8
MIAMI (FL)NEBRASKARoad3-0.8-0.8
MIAMI (FL)CINCINNATIHome-11-8.8-0.8
NEBRASKANORTHWESTERNRoad-2.5-6.4-0.9
NOTRE DAMENAVYNeut-3-3.9-0.9
TEXASTEXAS TECHRoad1-2.9-0.9
TEXASWEST VIRGINIAHome-13-11-1
NOTRE DAMEARIZONA ST.Road4.50.4-1.1
MIAMI (FL)PITTSBURGHHome-7-5.2-1.2
BYUBOISE ST.Road-3-7.2-1.2
ARIZONA ST.STANFORDHome6.58.3-1.2
FLORIDALSUHome910.8-1.2
NEBRASKAFRESNO ST.Road-4-8.2-1.2
ARIZONAUSCHome7.59.2-1.3
NOTRE DAMENORTHWESTERNHome-8-6.4-1.4
GEORGIA TECHGEORGIARoad149.5-1.5
TEXAS TECHTEXASHome-10.5-1.5
VIRGINIA TECHGEORGIA TECHHome-7-5.5-1.5
MIAMI (FL)VIRGINIARoad-10-14.5-1.5
BYUCONNECTICUTRoad-16.5-21-1.5
ARIZONAUCLARoad149.3-1.7
MIAMI (FL)VIRGINIA TECHRoad1-3.7-1.7
OREGON ST.STANFORDRoad138.3-1.7
KANSAS ST.AUBURNHome1314.1-1.9
CENTRAL FLORIDASOUTH FLORIDARoad-21-26.1-2.1
BYUCALIFORNIARoad-11-16.2-2.2
LOUISVILLESYRACUSERoad-1-6.3-2.3
TEXAS TECHOKLAHOMAHome1010.7-2.3
ARIZONA ST.WASHINGTONRoad60.6-2.4
LOUISVILLEFLORIDA ST.Home1717.6-2.4
VIRGINIA TECHMIAMI (FL)Home-1-0.4-2.4
BYUTEXASRoad60.5-2.5
PENN ST.MICHIGANRoad71.5-2.5
ARIZONAUNLVHome-23.5-23.1-2.6
UTAHSTANFORDRoad148.3-2.7
TEXAS TECHOKLAHOMA ST.Road71.2-2.8
ARIZONAUTAHRoad2-3.8-2.8
PENN ST.OHIO ST.Home99.2-2.8
IOWANEBRASKAHome-1-0.8-2.8
NEBRASKAIOWARoad1-4.9-2.9
LOUISVILLEKENTUCKYHome-15-14.9-2.9
UTAHARIZONAHome-2-2-3
NAVYNOTRE DAMENeut3-0.1-3.1
VIRGINIA TECHPITTSBURGHRoad1-5.2-3.2
LOUISVILLECLEMSONRoad103.7-3.3
NOTRE DAMEFLORIDA ST.Road2417.6-3.4
OREGON ST.SAN DIEGO ST.Home-13-13.4-3.4
TEXAS TECHKANSAS ST.Road70.6-3.4
LOUISVILLEMIAMI (FL)Home0-0.4-3.4
VIRGINIA TECHVIRGINIAHome-14-14.5-3.5
ARIZONAARIZONA ST.Home10.4-3.6
DUKENORTH CAROLINAHome32.3-3.7
TEXAS TECHBAYLORHome6.55.8-3.7
UTAHUSCHome109.2-3.8
OREGON ST.WASHINGTONRoad7.50.6-3.9
NAVYARMYNeut-13-16.9-3.9
LOUISVILLEVIRGINIARoad-7.5-14.5-4
WASHINGTONARIZONARoad5-2-4
TEXAS TECHWEST VIRGINIAHome-10-11-4
ARKANSASMISSISSIPPIHome53.8-4.2
IOWAMINNESOTARoad0-7.3-4.3
PITTSBURGHMIAMI (FL)Road7-0.4-4.4
TENNESSEEGEORGIARoad179.5-4.5
NORTHWESTERNMICHIGANHome31.5-4.5
CENTRAL FLORIDAPENN ST.Neut2.5-2-4.5
OREGON ST.ARIZONA ST.Home20.4-4.6
ARIZONAOREGONRoad2517.3-4.7
VIRGINIA TECHNORTH CAROLINARoad102.3-4.7
PITTSBURGHNORTH CAROLINARoad102.3-4.7
VIRGINIA TECHBOSTON COLLEGEHome-16-17.8-4.8
NAVYOHIO ST.Neut149.2-4.8
OREGON ST.USCRoad179.2-4.8
NORTHWESTERNNOTRE DAMERoad8-0.1-5.1
LOUISVILLENOTRE DAMERoad8-0.1-5.1
BOISE ST.MISSISSIPPINeut93.8-5.2
TENNESSEEMISSISSIPPIRoad123.8-5.2
TENNESSEEOKLAHOMARoad1910.7-5.3
GEORGIA TECHCLEMSONHome63.7-5.3
IOWAWISCONSINHome63.5-5.5
SYRACUSENOTRE DAMENeut5.5-0.1-5.6
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  1. The SRS isn’t mysterious, of course — I’ve done as good of a job as I can explaining it, and it’s relatively simple to generate in Excel, but I recognize that to some readers it does feel somewhat mysterious. []
{ 10 comments }
  • George June 16, 2014, 6:43 am

    Pretty cool stuff as usual. Re: the SRS, the only thing you need to remember is that you need to do the fixtures twice (to generate the oSRS for both sides – it took me about 10 months to figure that out as my numbers never converged and I couldn’t figure why – and I had found that video online, just coming from the Winston method I didn’t figure it out).

    Just looking at everything, I can’t see how FSU doesn’t make the play-offs. Even though they have had some fairly significant losses to their defence, and at WR where Kelvin Benjamin was fairly talented (in fairness was probably a slight reach in the first round), I think that they were that much better than most of the teams that they faced last year the drop-off in talent should be manageable. The most difficult game I’d say is probably Clemson who will be in a transition year I think, following the loss of Boyd at QB.

    The interesting one to me is Alabama, as it looks likely that former FSU QB Jakob Coker who backed up Winston at FSU last year could start, and seems to be more mobile than AJ Mccarron was (giving their offence which looked a little bit average and bland at points last year more to offer).

    I was also messing about with HFA’s in the last couple of months, and really do think that Alabama’s Home Field Advantage (which I put approximately at 17 points last year – really crudely, solved this using the Winston method, adding HFA’s as an individual variable against an SEC set of results only) probably masked some of their deficiencies. I haven’t done much work with HFA’s, but even if it is only half that this year, I think they make the play-offs as well. I really like their situation at RB with Yeldon and Henry (which I think is a step up).

    I think Auburn also makes it to the play-offs as well, purely on the Malzahn factor. Opponents knew that they were going to run the ball against them, Auburn still did and did it well. I don’t think too much changes this year, and despite the losses like Mason and Robinson it’s another year to bed the offence in properly.

    Don’t know who the fourth team would be though, I like Oklahoma quite a bit who were seeming to get it together at the back end of last year, and I think could get the spot on the basis of how weak the B12 looks and I think the PAC12 will have a lot of good teams in it (who are likely to trip over each other – e.g. I see Oregon dropping at least one if not two games).

    Reply
    • Matt June 16, 2014, 11:40 am

      “Pretty cool stuff as usual. Re: the SRS, the only thing you need to remember is that you need to do the fixtures twice (to generate the oSRS for both sides – it took me about 10 months to figure that out as my numbers never converged and I couldn’t figure why – and I had found that video online, just coming from the Winston method I didn’t figure it out).”

      Care to elaborate what the “fixtures” mean?

      I’ve been doing some work with SRS and Massey Ratings lately and have no idea what you are talking about haha So I want to make sure I’m not missing anything.

      Reply
      • George June 16, 2014, 5:38 pm

        Sorry my fault – it’s possibly a European term (?? – I’m from the UK) – by fixtures I mean game/schedule. When I first did the SRS, I laid all of the games out as Team A vs Team B, but to get the SRS to converge you also need to allow for Team B vs Team A (so the same game has to appear on your worksheet twice). If you do it the Winston method, you only need to lay the game out once (as you use Excel’s Solver to set-up the iterative process, as opposed to how you can do the SRS, which you could also do using a matrix in Excel – I think – pretty much in the way Massey explained in his thesis paper on rankings).

        I’ve also had a few other thoughts on the play-offs. I still think Auburn gets there, but if Alabama also gets there one of them would have to drop at least one game, and then is it going to come down to style points effectively (in terms of how you rank the one loss teams, or is it solely by BCS?). There’s no way you are getting four 12-0 teams (but possibly 2 or 3) so I can see there being issues on who gets in and who doesn’t. I haven’t looked at the schedules enough to figure this all out, but I’m figuring the play-offs can definately have two teams from the same conference (even if one has one loss, providing that the one loss team is good enough).

        Reply
  • Noah August 27, 2014, 1:28 am

    Hey guys,

    I’ve been trying to put my own SRS ratings together and something just isn’t working. I understand the concept (and have relatively good excel skills) but it seems that when I force through the circular reference, the iterations just keep resulting in higher and higher SOS. I don’t know if any of you had this issue when you first put yours together but would definitely appreciate any insights here.

    For reference, I used the full 2013 schedule and used the capped SRS that College-Football Reference uses (MOV under 7 pts is 7 pts, anything between 7 and 24 is what it is, and any MOV above 24 is 24). I can easily sync up to their MOV calculation (essentially SRS – SOS, because they don’t show the actual MOV), but when I link up so make the model circular, the SOS just keeps going up and never converges.

    Thanks in advance!

    Reply

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