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Game Scripts, Part III – 2012 results

Last week, I introduced the concept of Game Scripts in Part I and Part II of this series. The short explanation is that a team’s Game Script score is simply the average score during each second of every game. Today, we’re going to look at some data from the 2012 season, although I have not yet included the data from this past weekend (week 13).

Let’s start with a look at the game scripts for each team this season.

TeamGScript
Patriots118.3
Texans114.8
49ers114.8
Bengals113.9
Bears113.8
Falcons113.6
Chargers113.3
Giants112.8
Buccaneers112.5
Ravens112.3
Redskins112.1
Packers112.1
Seahawks111.7
Steelers111.4
Vikings110.8
Broncos110.5
Saints110.2
Dolphins11-0.1
Colts11-1
Panthers11-1.6
Bills11-1.9
Cardinals11-2
Rams11-2
Browns11-2.1
Lions11-2.2
Cowboys11-3.4
Titans11-4
Jets11-4
Jaguars11-4
Eagles11-5.1
Raiders11-7.4
Chiefs11-7.6

There aren’t too many surprises on there. The Patriots are 8-3 (in this data set) with a record-setting offense; they have had a number of blowout victories and their three losses came by a combined four points. The Texans and 49ers also have impressive Game Script scores, and many would consider those three the three best teams in the league. Cincinnati might be a little surprising up at the top, but the Bengals were 10th in points differential through eleven games and third in points differential in the first half. Remember, the Game Script score is designed to be descriptive, not predictive; it’s not saying that Cincinnati is the 4th best team, it’s simply revealing the fact that the Bengals have, on average, led by 3.9 points in each second of every game they’ve played this year. That’s mostly because Cincinnati has been a great first half team.

But what we really want to do is look at Game Scripts in the context of pass/run ratios. The table below shows each team’s Game Script, their Pass/Run Ratio, and then their Game Script Index, Pass/Run Ratio Index, and Pass Identity Rating. Remember, for the two Index categories, 100 is average, and one standard deviation above or below average is worth fifteen points. The Falcons have a Script Index of 115, because their Game Script score was one standard deviation above average. A Pass Index of 70 would mean a team’s pass/run ratio was two standard deviations below average.

If we want to compare the Game Scripts metric and the Pass/Run Ratios for a team, we need to have them in the same units; that’s why we convert them into their respective Index grades. Once we have the two statistics in like units, we can grade each team’s Pass Identity. That’s calculated by the following formula: (Pass Index – 100) + (Script Index – 100). The higher the sum, the more pass happy a team truly is. Here are the results through 12 weeks of 2012:

TeamGScriptP/R RatioSCRIPT INDEXPASS INDEXPASS IDENTITY
Falcons113.662.5%11511430
Saints110.266%10112526
Patriots118.354.6%1369026
Chargers113.360.7%11410923
Ravens112.360.6%11010918
Lions11-2.266%9112516
Cardinals11-265.4%9112415
Giants112.858.7%11210315
Bengals113.957.1%1179814
Steelers111.459.4%10610511
Packers112.158.4%10910211
Colts11-162%961139
Cowboys11-3.465.3%851238
Broncos110.559%1021046
Buccaneers112.556.2%111956
Texans114.851.2%121790
Titans11-463.3%831170
Jaguars11-463%82116-2
Bears113.852%11682-2
Browns11-2.160.1%91107-2
Raiders11-7.466.8%68128-4
Vikings110.855%10491-5
49ers114.849.2%12173-6
Dolphins11-0.155.1%9991-9
Rams11-257.1%9198-11
Eagles11-5.159.5%78105-17
Panthers11-1.654.6%9390-17
Redskins112.148.8%10972-19
Bills11-1.953.5%9286-22
Seahawks111.746.5%10764-28
Jets11-453.3%8386-32
Chiefs11-7.651.2%6779-54

There are some very interesting results. For example:

Tom Brady thinks it funny if you view New England as a running team.

  • The Patriots currently rank 2nd in rush attempts, but don’t confuse them for a rushing team. Sure, it might seem silly to view any Tom Brady team as run-heavy, but at some point, expect to hear the talking heads say something like “did you know the Patriots lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns and rank second in attempts! They’re now a power running team!” That’s not really the case. For starters, the Pats run a significant number of plays — they rank 7th in pass attempts, too. Through 11 games, New England did rank 23rd in pass/run ratio, but that’s a largely function of their Game Scripts. Once you control for the average score in their games, New England comes in as one of the three most pass-happy teams in the league. Bill Belichick hasn’t transformed this team into a running team, he’s transformed them into a dominant team that’s usually playing with a large lead.
  • The Falcons have fully transformed from a run-oriented squad to the home of the NFL’s most pass-heavy offense. Under Matt Ryan, the Falcons have steadily seen their Pass Identity score rise from -14 in his rookie year, to 7 in 2009, to 10 in 2010, to 20 in 2011, and now to 30 this year. With Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez — not to mention an aging Michael Turner — the Falcons should be one of the most pass-friendly teams in the league. And they are.
  • Game Scripts are really important because otherwise it’s easy to get fooled by raw stats. The Raiders lead the league in pass/run ratio. In fact, through thirteen weeks, Oakland ranks 2nd in pass attempts and 32nd in rush attempts. But they’ve trailed by over a touchdown, on average, in each second of every game this year! The Raiders aren’t passing because they’re a passing team, they’re passing because they’re not any good. In fact, they are more standard deviations below average when it comes to Game Scripts than they are standard deviations above average when it comes to pass/run ratio. As a result, Oakland comes in as having a below average Pass Identity. I suspect anyone who has Carson Palmer or any other member of the Raiders passing attack on their fantasy team is well aware of this.
  • Kansas City comes in as the most run-heavy team and it’s not particularly close. We can all lament how it seems like Jamaal Charles never gets enough carries, but consider how incredible it is that the 1-10 Chiefs (through twelve weeks) ranked 4th in rushing attempts! That’s a team that’s running by design, regardless of the score.

Finally, the table below lists the game score from each of the games in the first 12 weeks of this season.

DateTeamOppBoxscorePFPAWLTScript
11/04/2012BearsTitansBoxscore5120W21.7
11/22/2012PatriotsJetsBoxscore4919W20.7
11/11/2012TitansDolphinsBoxscore373W19.9
11/11/2012RavensRaidersBoxscore5520W18.8
10/28/2012PatriotsRamsBoxscore457W18
11/19/201249ersBearsBoxscore327W17.4
09/09/2012JetsBillsBoxscore4828W17.2
09/16/2012BillsChiefsBoxscore3517W16.8
11/25/2012GiantsPackersBoxscore3810W16.8
09/20/2012GiantsPanthersBoxscore367W16.6
10/28/2012DolphinsJetsBoxscore309W16.4
10/21/2012TexansRavensBoxscore4313W16.1
11/18/2012SaintsRaidersBoxscore3817W15.7
11/25/2012BengalsRaidersBoxscore3410W15.6
11/11/2012BengalsGiantsBoxscore3113W15.4
10/07/201249ersBillsBoxscore453W14.7
09/30/2012ChargersChiefsBoxscore3720W14.6
09/23/2012CardinalsEaglesBoxscore276W14.3
09/16/2012ChargersTitansBoxscore3810W14
09/10/2012RavensBengalsBoxscore4413W13.6
10/14/2012PackersTexansBoxscore4224W13.5
09/30/2012BroncosRaidersBoxscore376W13.3
11/18/2012RedskinsEaglesBoxscore316W13.2
09/30/2012TexansTitansBoxscore3814W12.9
09/17/2012FalconsBroncosBoxscore2721W12.9
10/29/201249ersCardinalsBoxscore243W12.9
11/04/2012LionsJaguarsBoxscore3114W12.7
09/23/2012FalconsChargersBoxscore273W12.6
11/08/2012ColtsJaguarsBoxscore2710W12.5
10/28/2012FalconsEaglesBoxscore3017W12.2
11/25/2012BearsVikingsBoxscore2810W11.7
09/16/2012TexansJaguarsBoxscore277W11.6
10/07/2012VikingsTitansBoxscore307W11.5
09/30/201249ersJetsBoxscore340W11.5
10/28/2012BroncosSaintsBoxscore3414W11
10/25/2012BuccaneersVikingsBoxscore3617W10.9
10/28/2012SteelersRedskinsBoxscore2712W10.7
11/18/2012BengalsChiefsBoxscore286W10.6
11/18/2012PatriotsColtsBoxscore5924W10.5
10/14/2012JetsColtsBoxscore359W10.4
11/11/2012BroncosPanthersBoxscore3614W10.2
10/22/2012BearsLionsBoxscore137W10.1
11/22/2012RedskinsCowboysBoxscore3831W10.1
09/09/2012PatriotsTitansBoxscore3413W9.9
09/09/2012BearsColtsBoxscore4121W9.7
11/05/2012SaintsEaglesBoxscore2813W9.6
10/14/2012Giants49ersBoxscore263W9.5
10/14/2012BuccaneersChiefsBoxscore3810W9.4
09/30/2012VikingsLionsBoxscore2013W9.3
09/09/2012FalconsChiefsBoxscore4024W9.1
09/23/2012TexansBroncosBoxscore3125W9.1
09/16/2012SeahawksCowboysBoxscore277W9
11/01/2012ChargersChiefsBoxscore3113W9
09/09/2012RedskinsSaintsBoxscore4032W8.9
11/11/2012VikingsLionsBoxscore3424W8.8
09/09/2012TexansDolphinsBoxscore3010W8.7
09/23/2012BillsBrownsBoxscore2414W8.7
11/04/2012PackersCardinalsBoxscore3117W8.6
10/15/2012ChargersBroncosBoxscore2435L8.5
10/07/2012PatriotsBroncosBoxscore3121W8.4
10/21/2012VikingsCardinalsBoxscore2114W8.3
10/28/2012GiantsCowboysBoxscore2924W8.3
11/15/2012BillsDolphinsBoxscore1914W8.1
09/16/2012BengalsBrownsBoxscore3427W8
10/01/2012BearsCowboysBoxscore3418W7.9
09/09/201249ersPackersBoxscore3022W7.9
10/04/2012RamsCardinalsBoxscore173W7.8
10/28/2012RaidersChiefsBoxscore2616W7.7
09/16/201249ersLionsBoxscore2719W7.5
11/11/2012PatriotsBillsBoxscore3731W7.5
09/23/2012Vikings49ersBoxscore2413W7.5
10/07/2012BearsJaguarsBoxscore413W7.4
09/09/2012BuccaneersPanthersBoxscore1610W7.3
09/13/2012PackersBearsBoxscore2310W7.3
11/11/2012SeahawksJetsBoxscore287W7.2
09/23/2012BengalsRedskinsBoxscore3831W7
10/21/2012JaguarsRaidersBoxscore2326L6.9
10/07/2012PackersColtsBoxscore2730L6.9
10/21/2012PackersRamsBoxscore3020W6.8
11/04/2012PanthersRedskinsBoxscore2113W6.7
09/30/2012BengalsJaguarsBoxscore2710W6.7
09/23/2012SaintsChiefsBoxscore2427L6.7
09/30/2012RedskinsBuccaneersBoxscore2422W6.6
11/25/2012ColtsBillsBoxscore2013W6.3
11/18/2012BrownsCowboysBoxscore2023L6.3
11/11/2012Rams49ersBoxscore2424T6.3
09/16/2012ColtsVikingsBoxscore2320W6.2
10/08/2012TexansJetsBoxscore2317W6
11/04/2012RavensBrownsBoxscore2515W5.9
09/23/2012PatriotsRavensBoxscore3031L5.9
09/16/2012DolphinsRaidersBoxscore3513W5.7
10/21/2012PatriotsJetsBoxscore2926W5.7
11/04/2012TexansBillsBoxscore219W5.6
09/23/2012BearsRamsBoxscore236W5.5
11/04/2012BuccaneersRaidersBoxscore4232W5.4
09/16/2012BuccaneersGiantsBoxscore3441L5.3
11/18/2012BroncosChargersBoxscore3023W5.3
09/27/2012RavensBrownsBoxscore2316W5.2
09/16/2012PanthersSaintsBoxscore3527W4.9
09/10/2012ChargersRaidersBoxscore2214W4.9
10/14/2012PatriotsSeahawksBoxscore2324L4.8
11/22/2012LionsTexansBoxscore3134L4.8
11/04/2012BroncosBengalsBoxscore3123W4.8
11/25/2012ChargersRavensBoxscore1316L4.8
09/23/2012DolphinsJetsBoxscore2023L4.4
09/23/2012SteelersRaidersBoxscore3134L4.3
11/18/2012JetsRamsBoxscore2713W4.3
09/30/2012DolphinsCardinalsBoxscore2124L4.3
09/23/2012TitansLionsBoxscore4441W4.2
10/14/2012RedskinsVikingsBoxscore3826W4.1
10/28/2012PanthersBearsBoxscore2223L4.1
09/16/2012SteelersJetsBoxscore2710W4.1
09/16/2012RedskinsRamsBoxscore2831L4
11/18/2012CardinalsFalconsBoxscore1923L4
11/11/2012TexansBearsBoxscore136W3.9
10/28/2012PackersJaguarsBoxscore2415W3.9
10/21/2012ColtsBrownsBoxscore1713W3.9
11/25/201249ersSaintsBoxscore3121W3.7
09/30/2012PatriotsBillsBoxscore5228W3.5
09/05/2012CowboysGiantsBoxscore2417W3.5
09/16/2012CardinalsPatriotsBoxscore2018W3.4
10/28/2012BrownsChargersBoxscore76W3.4
11/04/2012SeahawksVikingsBoxscore3020W3.3
09/30/2012PackersSaintsBoxscore2827W3
10/07/2012SteelersEaglesBoxscore1614W3
11/18/2012JaguarsTexansBoxscore3743L3
10/28/2012TitansColtsBoxscore1319L2.8
11/26/2012PanthersEaglesBoxscore3022W2.6
10/14/2012RavensCowboysBoxscore3129W2.6
10/07/2012GiantsBrownsBoxscore4127W2.6
10/07/2012SeahawksPanthersBoxscore1612W2.5
11/25/2012JaguarsTitansBoxscore2419W2.4
11/25/2012RamsCardinalsBoxscore3117W2.4
10/07/2012RavensChiefsBoxscore96W2.4
11/11/2012SaintsFalconsBoxscore3127W2.2
10/14/2012DolphinsRamsBoxscore1714W2.2
09/16/2012RavensEaglesBoxscore2324L2.2
10/28/2012SeahawksLionsBoxscore2428L2.1
11/12/2012ChiefsSteelersBoxscore1316L2
10/07/2012DolphinsBengalsBoxscore1713W2
09/23/2012ColtsJaguarsBoxscore1722L2
10/07/2012ChargersSaintsBoxscore2431L1.9
11/04/2012GiantsSteelersBoxscore2024L1.8
09/30/2012EaglesGiantsBoxscore1917W1.7
09/09/2012CardinalsSeahawksBoxscore2016W1.5
11/18/2012PanthersBuccaneersBoxscore2127L1.4
11/25/2012BrownsSteelersBoxscore2014W1.4
09/24/2012SeahawksPackersBoxscore1412W1.4
10/14/2012BillsCardinalsBoxscore1916W1.3
09/30/2012RamsSeahawksBoxscore1913W1.3
11/18/2012RavensSteelersBoxscore1310W1.3
10/21/2012TitansBillsBoxscore3534W1.2
09/23/2012CowboysBuccaneersBoxscore1610W1.2
10/07/2012RedskinsFalconsBoxscore1724L1.2
11/18/2012LionsPackersBoxscore2024L1.2
11/04/2012DolphinsColtsBoxscore2023L1.2
11/11/2012CowboysEaglesBoxscore3823W1.1
10/21/2012CowboysPanthersBoxscore1914W1
10/21/2012SaintsBuccaneersBoxscore3528W1
11/25/2012SeahawksDolphinsBoxscore2124L1
10/14/2012RaidersFalconsBoxscore2023L1
10/21/2012GiantsRedskinsBoxscore2723W0.9
09/09/2012RamsLionsBoxscore2327L0.6
10/11/2012TitansSteelersBoxscore2623W0.6
11/25/2012FalconsBuccaneersBoxscore2423W0.5
11/25/2012ChiefsBroncosBoxscore917L0.5
10/18/201249ersSeahawksBoxscore136W0.2
09/30/2012FalconsPanthersBoxscore3028W0.2
10/14/2012EaglesLionsBoxscore2326L0.2
09/09/2012BroncosSteelersBoxscore3119W0.1
09/09/2012EaglesBrownsBoxscore1716W0.1
11/11/2012BuccaneersChargersBoxscore3424W0.1
11/04/2012CowboysFalconsBoxscore1319L0.1
10/14/2012BrownsBengalsBoxscore3424W0
10/21/2012SteelersBengalsBoxscore2417W0
09/09/2012VikingsJaguarsBoxscore2623W0
09/09/2012JaguarsVikingsBoxscore2326L0
10/21/2012BengalsSteelersBoxscore1724L0
10/14/2012BengalsBrownsBoxscore2434L0
11/04/2012FalconsCowboysBoxscore1913W-0.1
11/11/2012ChargersBuccaneersBoxscore2434L-0.1
09/09/2012BrownsEaglesBoxscore1617L-0.1
09/09/2012SteelersBroncosBoxscore1931L-0.1
10/14/2012LionsEaglesBoxscore2623W-0.2
09/30/2012PanthersFalconsBoxscore2830L-0.2
10/18/2012Seahawks49ersBoxscore613L-0.2
11/25/2012BroncosChiefsBoxscore179W-0.5
11/25/2012BuccaneersFalconsBoxscore2324L-0.5
10/11/2012SteelersTitansBoxscore2326L-0.6
09/09/2012LionsRamsBoxscore2723W-0.6
10/21/2012RedskinsGiantsBoxscore2327L-0.9
10/14/2012FalconsRaidersBoxscore2320W-1
11/25/2012DolphinsSeahawksBoxscore2421W-1
10/21/2012BuccaneersSaintsBoxscore2835L-1
10/21/2012PanthersCowboysBoxscore1419L-1
11/11/2012EaglesCowboysBoxscore2338L-1.1
11/04/2012ColtsDolphinsBoxscore2320W-1.2
11/18/2012PackersLionsBoxscore2420W-1.2
10/07/2012FalconsRedskinsBoxscore2417W-1.2
09/23/2012BuccaneersCowboysBoxscore1016L-1.2
10/21/2012BillsTitansBoxscore3435L-1.2
11/18/2012SteelersRavensBoxscore1013L-1.3
09/30/2012SeahawksRamsBoxscore1319L-1.3
10/14/2012CardinalsBillsBoxscore1619L-1.3
09/24/2012PackersSeahawksBoxscore1214L-1.4
11/25/2012SteelersBrownsBoxscore1420L-1.4
11/18/2012BuccaneersPanthersBoxscore2721W-1.4
09/09/2012SeahawksCardinalsBoxscore1620L-1.5
09/30/2012GiantsEaglesBoxscore1719L-1.7
11/04/2012SteelersGiantsBoxscore2420W-1.8
10/07/2012SaintsChargersBoxscore3124W-1.9
09/23/2012JaguarsColtsBoxscore2217W-2
10/07/2012BengalsDolphinsBoxscore1317L-2
11/12/2012SteelersChiefsBoxscore1613W-2
10/28/2012LionsSeahawksBoxscore2824W-2.1
09/16/2012EaglesRavensBoxscore2423W-2.2
10/14/2012RamsDolphinsBoxscore1417L-2.2
11/11/2012FalconsSaintsBoxscore2731L-2.2
10/07/2012ChiefsRavensBoxscore69L-2.4
11/25/2012CardinalsRamsBoxscore1731L-2.4
11/25/2012TitansJaguarsBoxscore1924L-2.4
10/07/2012PanthersSeahawksBoxscore1216L-2.5
10/07/2012BrownsGiantsBoxscore2741L-2.6
10/14/2012CowboysRavensBoxscore2931L-2.6
11/26/2012EaglesPanthersBoxscore2230L-2.6
10/28/2012ColtsTitansBoxscore1913W-2.8
11/18/2012TexansJaguarsBoxscore4337W-3
10/07/2012EaglesSteelersBoxscore1416L-3
09/30/2012SaintsPackersBoxscore2728L-3
11/04/2012VikingsSeahawksBoxscore2030L-3.3
10/28/2012ChargersBrownsBoxscore67L-3.4
09/16/2012PatriotsCardinalsBoxscore1820L-3.4
09/05/2012GiantsCowboysBoxscore1724L-3.5
09/30/2012BillsPatriotsBoxscore2852L-3.5
11/25/2012Saints49ersBoxscore2131L-3.7
10/21/2012BrownsColtsBoxscore1317L-3.9
10/28/2012JaguarsPackersBoxscore1524L-3.9
11/11/2012BearsTexansBoxscore613L-3.9
11/18/2012FalconsCardinalsBoxscore2319W-4
09/16/2012RamsRedskinsBoxscore3128W-4
09/16/2012JetsSteelersBoxscore1027L-4.1
10/28/2012BearsPanthersBoxscore2322W-4.1
10/14/2012VikingsRedskinsBoxscore2638L-4.1
09/23/2012LionsTitansBoxscore4144L-4.2
09/30/2012CardinalsDolphinsBoxscore2421W-4.3
11/18/2012RamsJetsBoxscore1327L-4.3
09/23/2012RaidersSteelersBoxscore3431W-4.3
09/23/2012JetsDolphinsBoxscore2320W-4.4
11/25/2012RavensChargersBoxscore1613W-4.8
11/04/2012BengalsBroncosBoxscore2331L-4.8
11/22/2012TexansLionsBoxscore3431W-4.8
10/14/2012SeahawksPatriotsBoxscore2423W-4.8
09/10/2012RaidersChargersBoxscore1422L-4.9
09/16/2012SaintsPanthersBoxscore2735L-4.9
09/27/2012BrownsRavensBoxscore1623L-5.2
11/18/2012ChargersBroncosBoxscore2330L-5.3
09/16/2012GiantsBuccaneersBoxscore4134W-5.3
11/04/2012RaidersBuccaneersBoxscore3242L-5.4
09/23/2012RamsBearsBoxscore623L-5.5
11/04/2012BillsTexansBoxscore921L-5.6
10/21/2012JetsPatriotsBoxscore2629L-5.7
09/16/2012RaidersDolphinsBoxscore1335L-5.7
09/23/2012RavensPatriotsBoxscore3130W-5.9
11/04/2012BrownsRavensBoxscore1525L-5.9
10/08/2012JetsTexansBoxscore1723L-6
09/16/2012VikingsColtsBoxscore2023L-6.2
11/11/201249ersRamsBoxscore2424T-6.3
11/18/2012CowboysBrownsBoxscore2320W-6.3
11/25/2012BillsColtsBoxscore1320L-6.3
09/30/2012BuccaneersRedskinsBoxscore2224L-6.6
09/23/2012ChiefsSaintsBoxscore2724W-6.7
09/30/2012JaguarsBengalsBoxscore1027L-6.7
11/04/2012RedskinsPanthersBoxscore1321L-6.7
10/21/2012RamsPackersBoxscore2030L-6.8
10/07/2012ColtsPackersBoxscore3027W-6.9
10/21/2012RaidersJaguarsBoxscore2623W-6.9
09/23/2012RedskinsBengalsBoxscore3138L-7
11/11/2012JetsSeahawksBoxscore728L-7.2
09/13/2012BearsPackersBoxscore1023L-7.3
09/09/2012PanthersBuccaneersBoxscore1016L-7.3
10/07/2012JaguarsBearsBoxscore341L-7.4
09/23/201249ersVikingsBoxscore1324L-7.5
11/11/2012BillsPatriotsBoxscore3137L-7.5
09/16/2012Lions49ersBoxscore1927L-7.5
10/28/2012ChiefsRaidersBoxscore1626L-7.7
10/04/2012CardinalsRamsBoxscore317L-7.8
09/09/2012Packers49ersBoxscore2230L-7.9
10/01/2012CowboysBearsBoxscore1834L-7.9
09/16/2012BrownsBengalsBoxscore2734L-8
11/15/2012DolphinsBillsBoxscore1419L-8.1
10/28/2012CowboysGiantsBoxscore2429L-8.3
10/21/2012CardinalsVikingsBoxscore1421L-8.3
10/07/2012BroncosPatriotsBoxscore2131L-8.4
10/15/2012BroncosChargersBoxscore3524W-8.5
11/04/2012CardinalsPackersBoxscore1731L-8.6
09/23/2012BrownsBillsBoxscore1424L-8.7
09/09/2012DolphinsTexansBoxscore1030L-8.7
11/11/2012LionsVikingsBoxscore2434L-8.8
09/09/2012SaintsRedskinsBoxscore3240L-8.9
11/01/2012ChiefsChargersBoxscore1331L-9
09/16/2012CowboysSeahawksBoxscore727L-9
09/23/2012BroncosTexansBoxscore2531L-9.1
09/09/2012ChiefsFalconsBoxscore2440L-9.1
09/30/2012LionsVikingsBoxscore1320L-9.3
10/14/2012ChiefsBuccaneersBoxscore1038L-9.4
10/14/201249ersGiantsBoxscore326L-9.5
11/05/2012EaglesSaintsBoxscore1328L-9.6
09/09/2012ColtsBearsBoxscore2141L-9.7
09/09/2012TitansPatriotsBoxscore1334L-9.9
11/22/2012CowboysRedskinsBoxscore3138L-10.1
10/22/2012LionsBearsBoxscore713L-10.1
11/11/2012PanthersBroncosBoxscore1436L-10.2
10/14/2012ColtsJetsBoxscore935L-10.4
11/18/2012ColtsPatriotsBoxscore2459L-10.5
11/18/2012ChiefsBengalsBoxscore628L-10.6
10/28/2012RedskinsSteelersBoxscore1227L-10.7
10/25/2012VikingsBuccaneersBoxscore1736L-10.9
10/28/2012SaintsBroncosBoxscore1434L-11
09/30/2012Jets49ersBoxscore034L-11.5
10/07/2012TitansVikingsBoxscore730L-11.5
09/16/2012JaguarsTexansBoxscore727L-11.6
11/25/2012VikingsBearsBoxscore1028L-11.7
10/28/2012EaglesFalconsBoxscore1730L-12.2
11/08/2012JaguarsColtsBoxscore1027L-12.5
09/23/2012ChargersFalconsBoxscore327L-12.6
11/04/2012JaguarsLionsBoxscore1431L-12.7
10/29/2012Cardinals49ersBoxscore324L-12.9
09/17/2012BroncosFalconsBoxscore2127L-12.9
09/30/2012TitansTexansBoxscore1438L-12.9
11/18/2012EaglesRedskinsBoxscore631L-13.2
09/30/2012RaidersBroncosBoxscore637L-13.3
10/14/2012TexansPackersBoxscore2442L-13.5
09/10/2012BengalsRavensBoxscore1344L-13.6
09/16/2012TitansChargersBoxscore1038L-14
09/23/2012EaglesCardinalsBoxscore627L-14.3
09/30/2012ChiefsChargersBoxscore2037L-14.6
10/07/2012Bills49ersBoxscore345L-14.7
11/11/2012GiantsBengalsBoxscore1331L-15.4
11/25/2012RaidersBengalsBoxscore1034L-15.6
11/18/2012RaidersSaintsBoxscore1738L-15.7
10/21/2012RavensTexansBoxscore1343L-16.1
10/28/2012JetsDolphinsBoxscore930L-16.4
09/20/2012PanthersGiantsBoxscore736L-16.6
11/25/2012PackersGiantsBoxscore1038L-16.8
09/16/2012ChiefsBillsBoxscore1735L-16.8
09/09/2012BillsJetsBoxscore2848L-17.2
11/19/2012Bears49ersBoxscore732L-17.4
10/28/2012RamsPatriotsBoxscore745L-18
11/11/2012RaidersRavensBoxscore2055L-18.8
11/11/2012DolphinsTitansBoxscore337L-19.9
11/22/2012JetsPatriotsBoxscore1949L-20.7
11/04/2012TitansBearsBoxscore2051L-21.7

{ 10 comments }
  • Richie December 5, 2012, 2:34 pm

    I suspect anyone who has Carson Palmer or any other member of the Raiders passing attack on their fantasy team is well aware of this.

    Actually, since most fantasy leagues don’t penalize QBs for interceptions, Palmer isn’t a bad fantasy player. In my league, he is the 12th-highest scoring QB (and overall) in the league. And he was probably about the 20th QB drafted, so he has returned better than expected performance.

    (Just a few short years ago, there would have been no way for QBs to be the top 12 scorers in our league.)

    Reply
  • Richie December 5, 2012, 2:37 pm

    Finally, the table below lists the game score from each of the games in the first 12 weeks of this season.

    So the Titans were the opponent in the highest game script of the year (vs Chicago) and the perpetrator of the 3rd-highest script (vs Miami).

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart December 5, 2012, 3:42 pm

      Yeah, that Miami game was the oddest game of the year, as you recall.

      Reply
  • Danish December 6, 2012, 11:11 am

    In fact it seems KC is on pace to reaching the most runheavy playcalling ever! (Going off the numbers in the second post of this series).

    That’s pretty unbelieveable in todays pass-wacky NFL.

    Reply
    • Danish December 6, 2012, 11:16 am

      Wait a minute. This is normalized to league-average, so this is not as incredible in a historic context as I thought.

      Allthough they’re still on pace to become the most runoriented team ever, compared to the league average that year.

      Reply
      • Chase Stuart December 6, 2012, 11:36 am

        That is correct – these are adjusted to league average.

        I still have some work to do on the standard deviation component — I’m not sure whether to use a normalized average or a yearly average. Once I figure out what I want to do the results will change slightly, but at least there is no before the fact bias (i.e., I don’t know whether 1980 or 1990 will go up or down; we have no reason to think one year will move in any particularly direction).

        But yeah, just on its face alone the fact that the Chiefs have the worst record in the league but rank 4th in rushing attempts is pretty crazy. Teams like the ’72 Bears and ’11 Broncos also were boosted by rushing quarterbacks, whereas the Chiefs simply choose to run the ball.

        Reply
        • Danish December 6, 2012, 12:26 pm

          Well presumably teams will become more and more pass-heavy. Passing has only gone one way the last 30 years: up.

          How does passing identity correlate with winning each year? I mean do bad teams generally run more than they pass? That’s of course not to say these bad runheavy teams should pass more, but it’ll determining if it wore to be bad at passing than being bad at running.

          Was that kind of relationship reverse in the 50ies? If yes, when did it flip?

          Reply

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