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Five weeks in, there’s no stopping the Crimson Tide

Like everyone else, the SRS now has Alabama atop its standings. Here are the full SRS ratings after five weeks1

Rk
Team
Conf
G
MOV
SOS
SRS
REC
1AlabamaSEC527.237.364.55-0
2TexasB12422.341.263.44-0
3Texas TechB12427.335.762.94-0
4Texas A&MSEC425.535.5613-1
5South CarolinaSEC522.138.860.95-0
6GeorgiaSEC522.336.859.15-0
7FloridaSEC416.642.258.94-0
8OregonP12526.429.956.35-0
9Notre DameIND414.841.556.24-0
10West VirginiaB12417.338.956.14-0
11Arizona StP12519.336.155.44-1
12Kansas StB12420.134.9554-0
13Florida StACC528.625.554.15-0
14BaylorB12412.84153.73-1
15PurdueB1041736.253.23-1
16LSUSEC521.731.453.15-0
17Oregon StP1235.747.352.93-0
18Oklahoma StB12414.43751.32-2
19OklahomaB12316.833.950.82-1
20ClemsonACC512.937.450.34-1
21UCLAP12515.334.549.84-1
22Ohio StateB10514.135.749.85-0
23StanfordP1247.342.549.73-1
24MissouriSEC51.946.848.73-2
25Iowa StB1248.140.448.53-1
26Southern CalP12412.835.748.43-1
27ArizonaP1254.343.347.63-2
28NebraskaB10517.33047.34-1
29San José StWAC513.132.545.64-1
30North CarolinaACC519.226.445.63-2
31NorthwesternB10511.833.745.55-0
32Fresno StMWC511.43445.43-2
33Mississippi StSEC418.826.144.84-0
34Utah StWAC513.431.444.84-1
35Brigham YoungIND516.328.444.73-2
36MississippiSEC5440.544.53-2
37Louisiana-MonroeSun49.834.744.52-2
38WisconsinB105341.444.43-2
39TCUB12420.923.644.44-0
40MichiganB1042.541.744.22-2
41NevadaMWC512.630.943.54-1
42Michigan StB1054.738.643.33-2
43Louisiana TechWAC415.627.643.24-0
44TulsaCUS512.330.642.94-1
45TennesseeSEC56.93642.93-2
46Boise StMWC4636.642.63-1
47WashingtonP1243.638.842.43-1
48Central FloridaCUS46.136.242.42-2
49LouisvilleBgE512.729.642.35-0
50Miami FLACC54.537.5424-1
51Penn StateB1059.331.7413-2
52AuburnSEC4-7.348.240.91-3
53Western KentuckySun59.431.440.84-1
54RutgersBgE415.824.340.14-0
55North Carolina StACC57.332.639.93-2
56Louisiana-LafayetteSun41029.939.93-1
57VanderbiltSEC4-1.941.739.81-3
58CincinnatiBgE313.726.139.83-0
59Middle Tennessee StSun411.827.839.53-1
60Ohio U.MAC515.723.739.45-0
61ToledoMAC57.831.339.14-1
62UtahP124-0.439.138.72-2
63MinnesotaB105731.538.54-1
64CaliforniaP125-5.844.238.41-4
65IowaB1053.234.8383-2
66TroySun54.433.437.83-2
67KentuckySEC5-9.747.437.71-4
68South FloridaBgE5-2.239.2372-3
69MarylandACC4-0.537.5372-2
70TempleBgE3234.936.91-2
71San Diego StMWC52.434.436.82-3
72Georgia TechACC56.829.636.42-3
73Ball StMAC5036.336.33-2
74SMUCUS4-9.645.936.31-3
75East CarolinaCUS5-1.737.936.23-2
76Northern IllinoisMAC511.524.435.94-1
77Boston CollegeACC4-2.538.135.61-3
78IndianaB1045.330.135.42-2
79New MexicoMWC5-3.839.135.32-3
80ConnecticutBgE55.829.435.23-2
81MarshallCUS5-2.137.1352-3
82SyracuseBgE4-4.839.334.61-3
83Kent StMAC42.332.134.43-1
84Virginia TechACC5727.334.33-2
85WyomingMWC4-639.633.61-3
86DukeACC59.623.933.54-1
87Air ForceMWC48.924.433.32-2
88Texas St-San MarcosWAC4-6.639.933.32-2
89Alabama-BirminghamCUS4-16.547.831.30-4
90UTEPCUS5-839311-4
91North TexasSun5-2.433.4312-3
92VirginiaACC5-6.737.530.82-3
93Western MichiganMAC5-2.232.930.72-3
94PittsburghBgE42.528.230.72-2
95ArkansasSEC5-14.244.530.31-4
96HoustonCUS4-8.837.7291-3
97KansasB124-533.928.91-3
98Arkansas StSun5-3.130.627.52-3
99Bowling GreenMAC5-2.129.427.32-3
100Florida AtlanticSun5-13.740.126.41-4
101BuffaloMAC4-6.532.926.41-3
102IllinoisB105-6.932.9262-3
103Washington StP125-934.425.42-3
104UNLVMWC5-8.834.225.41-4
105NavyIND4-10.435.625.31-3
106Southern MissCUS4-16.841.624.90-4
107Texas-San AntonioWAC520.34.524.85-0
108Colorado StMWC5-12.236.824.61-4
109RiceCUS5-12.637.224.61-4
110Eastern MichiganMAC4-17.64224.40-4
111Wake ForestACC5-7.531.5243-2
112Florida Int'lSun5-12.336.123.81-4
113Miami OHMAC5-5.328.3233-2
114AkronMAC5-4.42722.61-4
115Central MichiganMAC4-10.430.4202-2
116Hawai`iMWC4-15.935.8201-3
117South AlabamaSun5-12.432.219.81-4
118New Mexico StWAC5-9.728.819.11-4
119ColoradoP125-13.131.818.71-4
120MemphisCUS4-1430.516.50-4
121IdahoWAC5-22.537.314.80-5
122TulaneCUS4-2943140-4
123ArmyIND4-16.830.413.60-4
124MassachusettsMAC5-22.535.412.90-5


Conference updates

The Big 10 essentially exited the national scene when Michigan State lost to Notre Dame in week three; with Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for bowl consideration and Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Iowa each losing in weeks one or two, the 2-0 Spartans seemed like the B1G’s only hope for a national contender in 2012. Michigan State lost to Notre Dame two weeks ago and to Ohio State on Saturday, leaving Northwestern and the Buckeyes as the last remaining undefeated teams in the conference. The Wildcats could conceivably escape Happy Valley and the Gopher Hole with a 7-0 record. It’s a very, very longshot, but with no Ohio State (or Purdue, I suppose) on the schedule and Nebraska at home, it’s at least conceivable for Wildcat fans to think the team will compete for, at a minimum, a conference championship. More realistically, following Northwestern’s first loss, most of the country can continue ignoring the Big 10 without second thought. (And no, I’m not expecting Purdue to last in the SRS top 20 for very long. Sorry, Chris.)

I noted last week that the SEC East was on the road back to respectability; nothing has changed this week. Florida was off this week, but Georgia and Tennessee played a mutually beneficially game where the Volunteers looked like a top-ten team while the Bulldogs escaped with a win. South Carolina overcome a miserable first half to put away Kentucky with ease, while Missouri at least avoided embarrassment by holding off UCF. We can at least hope that the SEC Championship Game this year will be more than simply a tuneup for the West Champion on their way to the national title game. But until proven otherwise, the most important game of the year will take place on November 3rd in Baton Rouge.

The only top-fifteen team to lose this week was Stanford, which could be damaging to the reputation of the Pac-12 as a conference. With USC losing to Stanford and now the Cardinal falling to Washington, Oregon may need style points to reach another national title game. Oregon’s nonconference games were filled with flour and sugar, and defeating Stanford, USC and Oregon State may not pack much sizzle.

Florida State avoided a stumble down in Tampa against South Florida; for the long-term view, the Seminoles win over Clemson last week all but locked up the Atlantic Division. The November 24th matchup against Florida should have more meaning for FSU than any contest in recent memory, but we’ll need to see FSU avoid stumbling before getting to that point. The rest of the conference, save Clemson, is still filled with question marks. Miami has now won consecutive games featuring crazy finishes, which is an improvement over where they’ve stood over the past few years. The Hurricanes are at least interesting to watch, and should give Notre Dame a tough run this weekend. But Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech look lost: the Hokies have lost to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in the last three weeks, while Georgia Tech followed up last week’s heart-breaking loss against Miami with a dud against Middle Tennessee State, falling 49-28.

Texas’ win over Mississippi looks better this week after the Rebels kept it respectable in Tuscaloosa, and the win over Oklahoma State last night was significant. But that just raises the stakes for this weekend when the Longhorns face West Virginia. If you haven’t heard by now, the phrase “video game numbers” has been replaced by “Geno Smith numbers”, after the Mountaineer quarterback completed 45 of 51 passes for 656 yards and 8 touchdowns. West Virginia gained over 800 yards of offense, and we can expect more Big 12 shootouts in 2012. But Texas actually has a defense — at least by the conference’s standards — and will be the toughest test for West Virginia yet in 2012.

The best and the worst of week 5

The table below gives good insight into how the SRS works and serves as a useful scan of the notable events of week five. Here’s how Texas A&M’s row reads. The Aggies won 58 to 10 over Arkansas. Texas A&M was at home (1) and won (1). The margin was 48 points, and the MOV for SRS purposes was 34.5 (the average of 24 and 45, taking three points off for home field); both schools are in the SEC, and it was an FBS game. Arkansas’s rating is 30.3, which means A&M’s SRS score for this game was 64.8 (34.5 + 30.3).

Tm
PF
Opp
PA
H/R
W/L
Margin
MOV
CON
CON
FBS?
SOS
SRS
Texas A&M58Arkansas10114834.5SECSEC130.364.8
Texas Tech24Iowa St13011114B12B12148.562.5
South Carolina38Kentucky17012124SECSEC137.761.7
West Virginia70Baylor631177B12B12153.760.7
Alabama33Mississippi14111916SECSEC144.560.5
Middle Tennessee St49Georgia Tech28012124SunACC136.460.4
Texas41Oklahoma St360158B12B12151.359.3
North Carolina66Idaho0116643.5ACCWAC114.858.3
Washington17Stanford131147P12P12149.756.7
Oklahoma St36Texas4110-5-8B12B12163.455.4
Oregon St38Arizona350137P12P12147.654.6
Louisiana-Monroe63Tulane10015340SunCUS11454
Brigham Young47Hawai`i0114734INDMWC12054
Toledo37Western Michigan17012023MACMAC130.753.7
Iowa31Minnesota13111815B10B10138.553.5
Penn State35Illinois7012827.5B10B1012653.5
Oregon51Washington St190.513228P12P12125.453.4
Florida St30South Florida17011316ACCBgE13753
Clemson45Boston College31011417ACCACC135.652.6
Tennessee44Georgia5100-7-7SECSEC159.152.1
Arizona St27California17011013P12P12138.451.4
Missouri21Central Florida160158SECCUS142.450.4
Ohio State17Michigan St160117B10B10143.350.3
Georgia51Tennessee441177SECSEC142.949.9
Nevada34Texas St-San Marcos21011316MWCWAC133.349.3
Baylor63West Virginia7000-7-7B12B12156.149.1
Iowa St13Texas Tech2410-11-14B12B12162.948.9
Mississippi14Alabama3300-19-16SECSEC164.548.5
Louisiana-Lafayette48Florida Int'l20112824.5SunSun123.848.3
Northwestern44Indiana29111512B10B10135.447.4
Wisconsin27Nebraska3000-30B10B10147.347.3
TCU24SMU1601811B12CUS136.347.3
Miami FL44North Carolina St371177ACCACC139.946.9
Marshall41Purdue5100-10-7CUSB10153.246.2
UCLA42Colorado14012827.5P12P12118.746.2
Northern Illinois55Central Michigan24113126MACMAC12046
Arizona35Oregon St3810-3-7P12P12152.945.9
Fresno St52San Diego St4011129MWCMWC136.845.8
Houston35Rice140.512121CUSCUS124.645.6
Nebraska30Wisconsin271130B10B10144.444.4
Utah St35UNLV13112219WACMWC125.444.4
Troy31South Alabama10012124SunSun119.843.8
Western Kentucky26Arkansas St13011316SunSun127.543.5
Texas-San Antonio35New Mexico St14012124WACWAC119.143.1
Michigan St16Ohio State1710-1-7B10B10149.842.8
Air Force42Colorado St21112118MWCMWC124.642.6
California17Arizona St2710-10-13P12P12155.442.4
Boise St32New Mexico290137MWCMWC135.342.3
Purdue51Marshall4111107B10CUS13542
Tulsa49Alabama-Birmingham4201710CUSCUS131.341.3
Cincinnati27Virginia Tech240.5137BgEACC134.341.3
LSU38Towson22111613SECfcs0.52841
Central Florida16Missouri2110-5-8CUSSEC148.740.7
San José St12Navy0011215WACIND125.340.3
Louisiana Tech44Virginia380169WACACC130.839.8
South Florida17Florida St3010-13-16BgEACC154.138.1
East Carolina28UTEP1811107CUSCUS13138
Kentucky17South Carolina3810-21-24SECSEC160.936.9
San Diego St40Fresno St5200-12-9MWCMWC145.436.4
Kent St45Ball St431120MACMAC136.336.3
New Mexico29Boise St3210-3-7MWCMWC142.635.6
Stanford13Washington1700-4-7P12P12142.435.4
North Texas20Florida Atlantic140169SunSun126.435.4
Southern Miss17Louisville2110-4-7CUSBgE142.335.3
North Carolina St37Miami FL4400-7-7ACCACC14235
Ball St43Kent St4500-20MACMAC134.334.3
Virginia38Louisiana Tech4410-6-9ACCWAC143.234.2
Duke34Wake Forest2701710ACCACC12434
Indiana29Northwestern4400-15-12B10B10145.533.5
SMU16TCU2410-8-11CUSB12144.433.4
Connecticut24Buffalo171177BgEMAC126.433.4
Boston College31Clemson4510-14-17ACCACC150.333.3
Alabama-Birmingham42Tulsa4910-7-10CUSCUS142.932.9
Virginia Tech24Cincinnati270.50-3-7ACCBgE139.832.8
Miami OH56Akron4901710MACMAC122.632.6
Massachusetts34Ohio U.3710-3-7MACMAC139.432.4
Louisville21Southern Miss170147BgECUS124.931.9
Bowling Green48Rhode Island8114030.5MACfcs0.50.230.7
Navy0San José St1210-12-15INDWAC145.630.6
UTEP18East Carolina2800-10-7CUSCUS136.229.2
Washington St19Oregon510.50-32-28P12P12156.328.3
Buffalo17Connecticut2400-7-7MACBgE135.228.2
Texas St-San Marcos21Nevada3410-13-16WACMWC143.527.5
Arkansas10Texas A&M5800-48-34.5SECSEC16126.5
UNLV13Utah St3500-22-19MWCWAC144.825.8
Arkansas St13Western Kentucky2610-13-16SunSun140.824.8
Wake Forest27Duke3410-7-10ACCACC133.523.5
Minnesota13Iowa3100-18-15B10B1013823
Colorado14UCLA4210-28-27.5P12P12149.822.3
Florida Atlantic14North Texas2010-6-9SunSun13122
Ohio U.37Massachusetts340137MACMAC112.919.9
Western Michigan17Toledo3710-20-23MACMAC139.116.1
Georgia Tech28Middle Tennessee St4910-21-24ACCSun139.515.5
Florida Int'l20Louisiana-Lafayette4800-28-24.5SunSun139.915.4
Colorado St21Air Force4200-21-18MWCMWC133.315.3
South Alabama10Troy3110-21-24SunSun137.813.8
Illinois7Penn State3510-28-27.5B10B1014113.5
Akron49Miami OH5610-7-10MACMAC12313
Hawai`i0Brigham Young4700-47-34MWCIND144.710.7
Central Michigan24Northern Illinois5500-31-26MACMAC135.99.9
Rice14Houston350.50-21-21CUSCUS1298
Tulane10Louisiana-Monroe6310-53-40CUSSun144.54.5
Idaho0North Carolina6600-66-43.5WACACC145.62.1
Army3Stony Brook2310-20-23INDfcs0.524.81.8
New Mexico St14Texas-San Antonio3510-21-24WACWAC124.80.8

The award for worst game by a BCS school this weekend goes to Illinois, who got blown out at home by Penn State. Best game by a non-BCS school clearly goes to MTSU, who not only upset Georgia Tech but did so by three touchdowns.

Undefeated checklist

Putting aside Texas-San Antonio — 5-0 against three FCS schools, South Alabama and New Mexico State — who are the worst remaining undefeated teams? Ohio, Cincinnati, and Rutgers look like the worst undefeated teams so far, but it’s early. As for UTSA, they may even run their record to 6-0 at Rice in two weeks, but should get a rude awakening against San Jose State on October 20th. And in the warmup act to the Game of the Century II, there’s a decent chance Mississippi State and Alabama will both be 7-0 heading into their game on October 27th at Bryant–Denny Stadium.

  1. Note that I called the Oregon-Washington State game when Oregon was up 51-19 late in the 4th quarter. []
{ 4 comments }
  • Richie September 30, 2012, 8:52 pm

    UCLA hammered Colorado on the road, and dropped 2 spots.

    Stupid SRS.

    Reply
  • George October 1, 2012, 5:21 pm

    Hi Chase,

    Great post as usual. Re: Richie above, UCLA were expected to hammer Colorado by about 30 so that wasn’t a better than expected win (as odd as that may sound). I’ve done the least squares thing whilst I still can (199 teams in the mix, so I can’t adjust the homefield advantage – due to Solvers variable limit – which I’ve left at 2.89). Average is about 27.78 which you could add to my ratings to get to around the SRS scores. I still have the Youngstown State anomaly, and have constrained all the teams to an average of 0 (or this week an Eastern Washington) – anyhow my top 20 straight up:

    Youngstown State 43.36167109
    Alabama 43.12574177
    Texas 41.18096787
    Texas Tech 39.31195051
    Oregon 38.46409007
    Texas A&M 38.32974699
    Florida 35.50061599
    Cincinnati 35.32575234
    South Carolina 34.37559472
    Georgia 33.8005889
    Kansas State 33.31412715
    Oklahoma State 31.86761154
    McNeese State 31.63943189
    Florida State 30.33280959
    Louisiana State 29.65177962
    Baylor 27.75956199
    West Virginia 26.76016787
    Pittsburgh 26.30681457
    Notre Dame 26.18460225
    Arizona State 25.63353533

    Now same constraints as above but adjusting and giving the games a 90% weighting (e.g. week 4 only counts 90% as much as week 5) – and we have Texas at the top clearly:

    Texas 50.92345278
    Youngstown State 47.76876156
    Florida 44.71067652
    Oklahoma State 43.90033306
    Texas Tech 40.0296585
    Texas A&M 39.00769511
    Alabama 38.31862204
    South Carolina 37.84048124
    Oregon 37.04289653
    Georgia 34.96139195
    McNeese State 32.362075
    Pittsburgh 30.86193181
    Florida State 30.77633278
    Kansas State 29.1823608
    North Carolina 29.0866791
    Notre Dame 28.16117873
    West Virginia 27.47133299
    Cincinnati 27.27788048
    Baylor 27.04118227
    Louisiana State 25.06161428

    Incidentally the model is closer to the previously observed/verified stochastic element for College Football this week with a standard deviation of error around a predicted margin of victory of about 8.95 for the unweighted and 10.75 for the weighted – against an expected 16 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin apparently).

    Reply
  • George October 5, 2012, 6:22 pm

    One last look at this – one game I am now really interested in Oaklahoma (-4.5) at Texas Tech – SRS, Least Squares and Weighted (90%) Least Squares have Texas Tech winning outright and comfortably (by a touchdown and not accounting for homefield advantage as well), so how comes they are getting points? Really can’t wait for tomorrow now to find out how the numbers stack up as this just seems wrong.

    Reply

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