Over at Footballguys.com, I explain my method of how to value a player that we know is going to a certain number of games. You can’t simply use the player’s projected number of fantasy points because that will underrate him. But if you go by his projected points per game average, he’ll be overrated. Using Rob Gronkowski as an example, I explained my method:
First, you need to determine the fantasy value of a perfectly healthy Gronkowski. Prior to today’s news, David Dodds had projected Gronkowski to record 70 catches for 938 yards and 9 touchdowns… but in only 14 games. This means Dodds had projected the Patriots star to average 10.6 FP/G in standard leagues, 15.6 FP/G in leagues that award one point per reception, and 18.1 FP/G in leagues like the FFPC that give tight ends 1.5 points per reception.
But those numbers aren’t useful in a vacuum: the proper way to value a player isn’t to look at the number of fantasy points he scores. Instead, the concept of VBD tells us that a player’s fantasy value is a function of how many fantasy points he scores relative to the other players at his position. I like to use a VBD baseline equal to that of a replacement player at the position, and “average backup” is a good proxy for that. In a 12-team league that starts one tight end with no flex option, that would be TE18. In standard leagues, TE18 on a points per game basis is Brandon Myers, the ex-Raiders tight end now with the Giants. Footballguys projects Myers to average 5.4 FP/G in standard leagues and and 8.9 FP/G in PPR leagues. In 1.5 PPR leagues, Martellus Bennett comes in at TE18 in our projections, with an average of 10.6 FP/G.
You can read the full article, which includes a neat table, here.