Adjusting Passer Rating for Era: Touchdown Rate Rankings (Thru 2018)

by Chase Stuart on April 8, 2019

On Saturday, I looked at the era-adjusted leaders in completion percentage. Yesterday, I did the same for yards/attempt; today, we continue the analysis but for touchdown percentage.

Here’s a look at the touchdown rate in each year since 1932:

Sid Luckman has a 7.9% career touchdown rate that is by far the best of all time. As you can see, he played in a friendlier era than modern times for throwing touchdowns. By way of comparison, Luckman threw 137 touchdowns on 1,744 passes (7.9%) with the Bears; Jay Cutler threw 154 touchdowns on 3,271 passes in Chicago (4.7%).

This guy is really good at throwing TDs.

But Luckman even ranks 1st in adjusted TD rate. Number 2 is Aaron Rodgers, who currently ranks 8th in touchdown rate. By way of comparison, Sammy Baugh ranks 7th in touchdown rate but ranks 31st in era-adjusted TD rate.

Frank Ryan was dominant at throwing touchdowns for the Browns in the ’60s, ranks 3rd overall. He ranked in the top five in touchdown rate in each season from ’63 through ’67, and 1st in ’63, ’64, and ’66. Next up are a pair of AFL stars in Len Dawson and Daryle Lamonica, followed by some of the most efficient passers in modern history: Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, and Tony Romo.

The table below shows where each passer ranks in TD%, after adjusting for era. The final column, as usual, shows the difference between that passer’s score in TD%, and his average score in INT%, completion percentage, and yards per attempt:

TD% Rk	Player	Att	First Yr	Last Year	EA PR	EA PR Rk	TD%	TD% Other3
1	Sid Luckman	1744	1939	1950	93.9	2	1.45	0.05
2	Aaron Rodgers	5492	2005	2018	82.9	8	1.36	0.16
3	Frank Ryan	2133	1958	1970	75.1	31	1.35	0.30
4	Frankie Albert	1564	1946	1952	81.8	9	1.35	0.16
5	Len Dawson	3741	1957	1975	86.6	4	1.34	0.05
6	Daryle Lamonica	2601	1963	1974	76.5	26	1.33	0.24
7	Steve Young	4149	1985	1999	86.5	5	1.32	0.03
8	Peyton Manning	9380	1998	2015	81	11	1.32	0.14
9	Russell Wilson	3261	2012	2018	78.4	21	1.31	0.18
10	Tony Romo	4335	2004	2016	79.2	18	1.29	0.14
11	Bob Griese	3429	1967	1980	79	19	1.25	0.09
12	Otto Graham	2626	1946	1955	95.2	1	1.25	-0.23
13	Tom Brady	9375	2000	2018	79.7	15	1.25	0.07
14	Terry Bradshaw	3901	1970	1983	70.3	75	1.24	0.25
15	Kurt Warner	4070	1998	2009	79.8	14	1.22	0.03
16	Drew Brees	9783	2001	2018	79.4	17	1.21	0.02
17	Roger Staubach	2958	1969	1979	84.6	6	1.21	-0.08
18	Philip Rivers	7000	2004	2018	76.1	27	1.20	0.08
19	Jim Kelly	4779	1986	1996	74.9	33	1.20	0.10
20	Brett Favre	10169	1991	2010	73.3	44	1.20	0.13
21	Dan Marino	8358	1983	1999	76.9	25	1.20	0.06
22	Danny White	2950	1976	1988	74.3	38	1.19	0.11
23	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	1957	1974	80.3	12	1.19	-0.02
24	Ken Stabler	3793	1970	1984	73.3	45	1.19	0.12
25	George Blanda	4007	1949	1975	67.4	101	1.18	0.23
26	Charlie Conerly	2833	1948	1961	75.7	28	1.18	0.06
27	Joe Montana	5391	1979	1994	83.8	7	1.18	-0.10
28	Earl Morrall	2689	1956	1976	73.4	43	1.18	0.11
29	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	1949	1960	81.6	10	1.18	-0.06
30	Steve Grogan	3593	1975	1990	65.9	116	1.18	0.25
31	Sammy Baugh	2995	1937	1952	92	3	1.17	-0.28
32	Dave Krieg	5311	1980	1998	72.3	51	1.17	0.11
33	Randall Cunningham	4289	1985	2001	72.1	54	1.15	0.10
34	Boomer Esiason	5205	1984	1997	71.7	57	1.15	0.10
35	Ben Roethlisberger	7168	2004	2018	75	32	1.15	0.03
36	Andrew Luck	3290	2012	2018	67.5	100	1.14	0.18
37	Bert Jones	2551	1973	1982	77.2	24	1.14	-0.03
38	John Hadl	4687	1962	1977	71	66	1.13	0.08
39	Fran Tarkenton	6467	1961	1978	79.7	16	1.12	-0.09
40	Don Meredith	2308	1960	1968	71.6	59	1.12	0.07
41	Billy Kilmer	2984	1961	1978	72.3	50	1.12	0.05
42	Daunte Culpepper	3199	1999	2009	74.1	39	1.12	0.01
43	Eddie LeBaron	1796	1952	1963	65.1	128	1.12	0.19
44	Bob Waterfield	1617	1945	1952	74.6	35	1.10	-0.02
45	Mark Rypien	2613	1988	2001	69.4	88	1.10	0.08
46	Steve Beuerlein	3328	1988	2003	69.8	81	1.10	0.07
47	Craig Morton	3786	1965	1982	72.6	49	1.10	0.01
48	Johnny Unitas	5186	1956	1973	77.2	23	1.09	-0.08
49	Vince Ferragamo	1615	1977	1986	63.6	149	1.08	0.17
50	Carson Palmer	6307	2004	2017	69.8	83	1.08	0.04
51	Bobby Hebert	3121	1985	1996	69.4	87	1.08	0.05
52	Andy Dalton	3921	2011	2018	67.7	97	1.08	0.08
53	Matt Ryan	6201	2008	2018	74.6	36	1.08	-0.05
54	Tom Flores	1715	1960	1969	73.1	46	1.08	-0.03
55	Jeff Garcia	3676	1999	2009	74.3	37	1.08	-0.05
56	Babe Parilli	3330	1952	1969	65.7	119	1.07	0.12
57	Jay Cutler	4920	2006	2017	66.5	109	1.07	0.09
58	Dan Fouts	5604	1973	1987	75.4	30	1.06	-0.09
59	Rich Gannon	4206	1987	2004	73.5	42	1.06	-0.05
60	Steve Bartkowski	3456	1975	1986	70.7	71	1.06	0.00
61	Bill Nelsen	1905	1963	1972	68.9	90	1.06	0.03
62	Chris Chandler	4005	1988	2004	68.8	92	1.06	0.04
63	Kirk Cousins	2702	2012	2018	72.2	53	1.06	-0.03
64	Chris Miller	2892	1987	1999	65.4	121	1.06	0.10
65	Donovan McNabb	5374	1999	2011	71.3	61	1.06	-0.02
66	Brian Sipe	3439	1974	1983	70.9	67	1.06	-0.01
67	Lynn Dickey	3125	1971	1985	66.3	113	1.05	0.08
68	Y.A. Tittle	4395	1948	1964	77.8	22	1.05	-0.15
69	Warren Moon	6823	1984	2000	71.2	63	1.05	-0.02
70	Trent Green	3740	1997	2008	73	48	1.05	-0.06
71	Cam Newton	3892	2011	2018	65.1	129	1.05	0.10
72	Joe Theismann	3602	1974	1985	72.3	52	1.05	-0.05
73	Brian Griese	2796	1998	2008	69.6	86	1.04	0.00
74	Eli Manning	7972	2004	2018	65.2	125	1.04	0.09
75	Jim Plunkett	3701	1971	1986	65.1	127	1.04	0.09
76	Ken Anderson	4475	1971	1986	79.8	13	1.04	-0.21
77	Jake Delhomme	2932	1999	2011	66.6	108	1.04	0.05
78	Jeff Hostetler	2338	1985	1997	70	79	1.04	-0.02
79	Tommy Kramer	3651	1977	1990	66.4	112	1.04	0.05
80	Jeff Blake	3241	1992	2005	66.5	110	1.04	0.05
81	Phil Simms	4647	1979	1993	70.6	72	1.03	-0.03
82	Ron Jaworski	4117	1974	1989	67.8	95	1.03	0.02
83	Jim Everett	4923	1986	1997	68.8	91	1.03	0.00
84	Joe Ferguson	4519	1973	1990	65	132	1.03	0.07
85	Bobby Layne	3700	1948	1962	70.1	78	1.03	-0.03
86	Scott Mitchell	2346	1991	2001	64.6	137	1.03	0.08
87	Charley Johnson	3392	1961	1975	67	104	1.02	0.02
88	Jameis Winston	1922	2015	2018	64.7	135	1.02	0.07
89	John Elway	7250	1983	1998	70.4	74	1.02	-0.04
90	Aaron Brooks	2963	2000	2006	65.2	123	1.02	0.06
91	Neil Lomax	3153	1981	1988	74.9	34	1.02	-0.14
92	Ryan Fitzpatrick	4285	2005	2018	61.3	163	1.02	0.13
93	Elvis Grbac	2445	1994	2001	68.5	94	1.02	-0.01
94	Vinny Testaverde	6701	1987	2007	64	143	1.02	0.08
95	Joe Namath	3762	1965	1977	68.7	93	1.01	-0.02
96	Erik Kramer	2299	1987	1999	65.8	118	1.01	0.03
97	Bill Kenney	2430	1980	1988	69.1	89	1.01	-0.03
98	Wade Wilson	2428	1981	1998	66.9	105	1.01	0.01
99	Jay Schroeder	2808	1985	1994	62.9	154	1.01	0.09
100	Chad Pennington	2471	2000	2010	75.4	29	1.01	-0.16
101	Tobin Rote	2907	1950	1966	63.9	145	1.01	0.06
102	Jay Fiedler	1717	1995	2005	64.8	134	1.00	0.04
103	Jeff George	3967	1990	2001	69.7	84	1.00	-0.06
104	Matthew Stafford	5405	2009	2018	67.7	98	1.00	-0.02
105	Doug Flutie	2151	1986	2005	65.6	120	1.00	0.02
106	Greg Landry	2300	1968	1984	73.6	41	1.00	-0.14
107	Gary Danielson	1932	1976	1988	71.2	62	1.00	-0.10
108	Mark Brunell	4640	1994	2011	71.9	56	0.99	-0.11
109	Michael Vick	3217	2001	2015	64.3	141	0.99	0.03
110	Richard Todd	2967	1976	1985	62.4	155	0.99	0.07
111	Marc Wilson	2081	1980	1990	59.5	173	0.98	0.12
112	Brad Johnson	4326	1994	2008	70.4	73	0.97	-0.11
113	Derek Carr	2800	2014	2018	65.8	117	0.97	-0.02
114	Jim McMahon	2573	1982	1996	69.7	85	0.97	-0.10
115	Marcus Mariota	1605	2015	2018	66.5	111	0.97	-0.04
116	Neil O'Donnell	3229	1991	2003	71.1	65	0.97	-0.13
117	Colin Kaepernick	1692	2011	2016	67.6	99	0.97	-0.06
118	Doug Williams	2507	1978	1989	63.7	148	0.96	0.01
119	Nick Foles	1581	2012	2018	66.7	107	0.96	-0.05
120	Matt Hasselbeck	5330	1999	2015	66.8	106	0.96	-0.05
121	Ed Brown	1987	1954	1965	63.3	152	0.96	0.02
122	Steve McNair	4544	1995	2007	70.3	77	0.96	-0.12
123	Matt Schaub	3281	2004	2018	71.7	58	0.96	-0.15
124	David Garrard	2281	2002	2010	69.9	80	0.96	-0.12
125	Steve DeBerg	5024	1978	1998	67.3	103	0.96	-0.07
126	Mike Tomczak	2337	1985	1999	59.9	171	0.96	0.08
127	Roman Gabriel	4498	1962	1977	73.6	40	0.96	-0.20
128	John Brodie	4491	1957	1973	70.9	68	0.96	-0.14
129	Jim Hart	5076	1966	1984	66.1	114	0.96	-0.05
130	Charlie Batch	1604	1998	2012	65.1	126	0.96	-0.03
131	Tim Couch	1714	1999	2003	63.2	153	0.96	0.01
132	Marc Bulger	3171	2002	2009	69.8	82	0.95	-0.12
133	Jon Kitna	4442	1997	2011	64.3	139	0.95	-0.01
134	Drew Bledsoe	6717	1993	2006	65.1	130	0.95	-0.03
135	Ryan Tannehill	2911	2012	2018	65.3	122	0.95	-0.04
136	Gus Frerotte	3106	1994	2008	61.9	159	0.94	0.02
137	Milt Plum	2419	1957	1969	70.7	70	0.94	-0.16
138	Tony Eason	1564	1983	1990	71.5	60	0.94	-0.17
139	Bubby Brister	2212	1986	2000	63.5	151	0.94	-0.02
140	Steve Bono	1701	1985	1999	64.7	136	0.94	-0.05
141	Josh Freeman	2048	2009	2015	59.8	172	0.93	0.05
142	Bart Starr	3149	1956	1971	78.7	20	0.93	-0.33
143	Jake Plummer	4350	1997	2006	62	158	0.93	0.00
144	Bernie Kosar	3365	1985	1996	73	47	0.93	-0.22
145	Stan Humphries	2516	1989	1997	65.2	124	0.93	-0.06
146	Matt Cassel	2684	2005	2018	60.4	169	0.93	0.03
147	Billy Wade	2523	1954	1966	70.8	69	0.92	-0.19
148	Alex Smith	4941	2005	2018	67.8	96	0.92	-0.14
149	Troy Aikman	4715	1989	2000	71.1	64	0.91	-0.20
150	Trent Dilfer	3172	1994	2007	58.2	175	0.91	0.05
151	Norm Snead	4353	1961	1976	63.5	150	0.91	-0.06
152	Kyle Orton	2712	2005	2014	63.9	146	0.91	-0.07
153	Bill Munson	1982	1964	1979	70.3	76	0.90	-0.20
154	Ken O'Brien	3602	1984	1993	72	55	0.90	-0.24
155	Byron Leftwich	1605	2003	2012	64.5	138	0.90	-0.09
156	Don Majkowski	1905	1987	1996	63.9	147	0.89	-0.09
157	Mark Malone	1648	1980	1989	54.3	186	0.89	0.10
158	Blake Bortles	2632	2014	2018	57.8	176	0.89	0.03
159	Rex Grossman	1562	2003	2012	55.8	180	0.89	0.07
160	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	1989	1999	57.3	178	0.89	0.04
161	Joe Flacco	5670	2008	2018	64.1	142	0.88	-0.11
162	Josh McCown	2628	2002	2018	61	165	0.88	-0.05
163	Mark Sanchez	2320	2009	2018	54.9	185	0.88	0.07
164	Jim Harbaugh	3918	1987	2000	67.3	102	0.87	-0.18
165	Derek Anderson	1674	2006	2018	53.6	187	0.87	0.09
166	Eric Hipple	1546	1980	1989	61.6	161	0.87	-0.07
167	Jim Zorn	3149	1976	1987	64	144	0.87	-0.12
168	Kerry Collins	6261	1995	2011	60.6	167	0.86	-0.07
169	Tony Banks	2356	1996	2005	61.4	162	0.86	-0.08
170	Rodney Peete	2346	1989	2004	62.3	156	0.86	-0.10
171	Jason Campbell	2518	2006	2014	64.9	133	0.86	-0.16
172	Kordell Stewart	2358	1995	2005	59.2	174	0.85	-0.05
173	Archie Manning	3642	1971	1984	66	115	0.84	-0.19
174	Dan Pastorini	3055	1971	1983	59.9	170	0.84	-0.08
175	Sam Bradford	2967	2010	2018	64.3	140	0.82	-0.19
176	Cotton Davidson	1752	1954	1968	60.5	168	0.82	-0.12
177	Mike Pagel	1509	1982	1993	55.3	182	0.81	-0.02
178	Joey Harrington	2538	2002	2007	55.3	181	0.80	-0.04
179	Mike Livingston	1751	1968	1979	65.1	131	0.80	-0.23
180	Case Keenum	1844	2012	2018	61.7	160	0.80	-0.17
181	Kyle Boller	1519	2003	2011	55.1	184	0.79	-0.04
182	Frank Tripucka	1745	1949	1963	61.3	164	0.77	-0.20
183	Mike Phipps	1799	1970	1981	53.2	188	0.76	-0.05
184	Dave Brown	1634	1992	2001	56.6	179	0.75	-0.13
185	David Carr	2267	2002	2012	60.7	166	0.75	-0.21
186	Jack Kemp	3073	1957	1969	62.2	157	0.75	-0.25
187	Chad Henne	1959	2008	2018	57.5	177	0.73	-0.18
188	Rick Mirer	2043	1993	2003	52.4	189	0.72	-0.09
189	Jack Trudeau	1644	1986	1995	55.1	183	0.70	-0.17

TD Rate Superstars

Ryan is the biggest outlier here: he was a good quarterback, but exceptional at throwing touchdowns. He overlapped with Jim Brown a bit, but still managed to have an exceptional touchdown rate.

Terry Bradshaw, Steve Grogan, and Daryle Lamonica were all players who had much better yards per completion and touchdown rates than completion percentages. For those three passers, touchdown rate was their best component of passer rating. Bradshaw would actually have a below-average passer rating if not for his outstanding touchdown rate. That probably doesn’t get mentioned enough: for the decade from 1973 to 1982, Bradshaw threw the most touchdowns and had the best touchdown rate (6.0%) in all of football.

TD Rate Underachievers

Bart Starr is well-above average in completion percentage, yards/attempt, and interception rate, but he’s below-average in touchdown rate. That’s more a reflection of the ’60s Packers than on Starr, who threw exactly one touchdown pass of 1-yard in his entire career. Nearly all of his touchdown passes were far from away, because when the Packers were near the end zone, they ran the ball.

Sammy Baugh’s worst category was touchdown rate, but as noted yesterday, the real takeaway is how dominant he was at completion percentage and, as you’ll see tomorrow, interception rate.

The other names in the bottom 10 in terms of Touchdown Percentage relative to INT%, CMP%, and Y/A? Jack Kemp, Ken O’Brien, Otto Graham, Mike Livingston, Bernie Kosar, David Carr, Ken Anderson, and Troy Aikman.

What stands out to you?

Tagged as: Passer Rating

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