Adjusting Passer Rating for Era: Yards/Attempt Rankings (Thru 2018)

by Chase Stuart on April 7, 2019

Yesterday, I looked at the era-adjusted leaders in completion percentage. Today, we’ll do the same thing but with yards per attempt.

The traditional passer rating formula measures Y/A by taking a passer’s Y/A, subtracting 3.0, and dividing the result by four. This makes sense when the average Y/A is around 7.0; in that case, 7.0 minus 3.0 equals 4.0, and dividing that by 4 gives a result of 1.00. But when the average passer isn’t averaging 7.0 yards per attempt, this formula isn’t so great. The graph below shows the average Y/A for all passers since 1932:

Automatic Otto.

To era-adjust the Yards/Attempt component of passer rating, we replace “3.0” in the formula with “League Average minus 4.0.” The top 10 passers by this metric are mostly who you would suspect, with a couple of surprises.

Otto Graham and Sid Luckman were far ahead of their peers and lead this category. Norm Van Brocklin and Steve Young were extremely efficient passers who were great in this category and were dominant players. Kurt Warner, Roger Staubach, and Len Dawson were Hall of Fame passers with great stats who unsurprisingly were great at yards per attempt. The rest of the top 10 are Tony Romo, Sammy Baugh, and Trent Green, three quarterbacks you probably never put in the same sentence before. But make no mistake: Romo and Green were outstanding players in their prime who didn’t have much in the way of down years: nearly all of their pass attempts came during their prime.

The worst 10? Joey Harrington (who was great at avoiding sacks, so he would fare better in NY/A) is at the bottom of the list, followed by Kyle Boller, Mike Phipps, Rick Mirer, Mark Malone, Mike Pagel, Frank Tripucka, Jack Trudeau, Dan Pastorini, and Steve Bono (who had a great record but was not very good at moving the ball down the field).

The full results are below. Once again, I’ve also included in the final column a measure of how each passer fares in Y/A relative to the other 3 (completion percentage, touchdown rate, interception rate) components of passer rating. More on that after the jump.

Y/A Rk	Player	Att	First Yr	Last Year	EA PR	EA PR Rk	Y/A	Y/A vs. Other3
1	Otto Graham	2626	1946	1955	95.2	1	1.53	0.13
2	Sid Luckman	1744	1939	1950	93.9	2	1.45	0.05
3	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	1949	1960	81.6	10	1.29	0.09
4	Steve Young	4149	1985	1999	86.5	5	1.29	-0.01
5	Kurt Warner	4070	1998	2009	79.8	14	1.27	0.10
6	Roger Staubach	2958	1969	1979	84.6	6	1.25	-0.02
7	Len Dawson	3741	1957	1975	86.6	4	1.22	-0.10
8	Tony Romo	4335	2004	2016	79.2	18	1.21	0.03
9	Sammy Baugh	2995	1937	1952	92	3	1.20	-0.23
10	Trent Green	3740	1997	2008	73	48	1.20	0.14
11	Dan Fouts	5604	1973	1987	75.4	30	1.19	0.08
12	Ben Roethlisberger	7168	2004	2018	75	32	1.19	0.09
13	Peyton Manning	9380	1998	2015	81	11	1.19	-0.04
14	Daunte Culpepper	3199	1999	2009	74.1	39	1.18	0.10
15	Philip Rivers	7000	2004	2018	76.1	27	1.18	0.05
16	Aaron Rodgers	5492	2005	2018	82.9	8	1.17	-0.09
17	Russell Wilson	3261	2012	2018	78.4	21	1.17	-0.01
18	Joe Namath	3762	1965	1977	68.7	93	1.16	0.18
19	Bart Starr	3149	1956	1971	78.7	20	1.15	-0.04
20	Steve Grogan	3593	1975	1990	65.9	116	1.15	0.21
21	Bob Griese	3429	1967	1980	79	19	1.15	-0.05
22	Drew Brees	9783	2001	2018	79.4	17	1.15	-0.06
23	Craig Morton	3786	1965	1982	72.6	49	1.14	0.07
24	Earl Morrall	2689	1956	1976	73.4	43	1.14	0.05
25	Ken Stabler	3793	1970	1984	73.3	45	1.14	0.06
26	Johnny Unitas	5186	1956	1973	77.2	23	1.14	-0.02
27	Matt Schaub	3281	2004	2018	71.7	58	1.14	0.09
28	Daryle Lamonica	2601	1963	1974	76.5	26	1.14	-0.01
29	Bob Waterfield	1617	1945	1952	74.6	35	1.14	0.02
30	Jim Kelly	4779	1986	1996	74.9	33	1.14	0.02
31	Ed Brown	1987	1954	1965	63.3	152	1.14	0.25
32	Joe Montana	5391	1979	1994	83.8	7	1.13	-0.17
33	Ken Anderson	4475	1971	1986	79.8	13	1.13	-0.09
34	Lynn Dickey	3125	1971	1985	66.3	113	1.13	0.18
35	Tom Brady	9375	2000	2018	79.7	15	1.13	-0.09
36	Bill Nelsen	1905	1963	1972	68.9	90	1.12	0.11
37	Steve Beuerlein	3328	1988	2003	69.8	81	1.11	0.08
38	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	1957	1974	80.3	12	1.11	-0.13
39	Dan Marino	8358	1983	1999	76.9	25	1.11	-0.06
40	Jameis Winston	1922	2015	2018	64.7	135	1.10	0.18
41	John Hadl	4687	1962	1977	71	66	1.10	0.05
42	Danny White	2950	1976	1988	74.3	38	1.10	-0.02
43	Matt Ryan	6201	2008	2018	74.6	36	1.10	-0.02
44	Kirk Cousins	2702	2012	2018	72.2	53	1.10	0.02
45	Terry Bradshaw	3901	1970	1983	70.3	75	1.10	0.06
46	Boomer Esiason	5205	1984	1997	71.7	57	1.10	0.03
47	Y.A. Tittle	4395	1948	1964	77.8	22	1.10	-0.10
48	Bert Jones	2551	1973	1982	77.2	24	1.09	-0.08
49	Chad Pennington	2471	2000	2010	75.4	29	1.09	-0.06
50	Marc Bulger	3171	2002	2009	69.8	82	1.08	0.05
51	Warren Moon	6823	1984	2000	71.2	63	1.08	0.02
52	Fran Tarkenton	6467	1961	1978	79.7	16	1.08	-0.15
53	Chris Chandler	4005	1988	2004	68.8	92	1.08	0.07
54	Eddie LeBaron	1796	1952	1963	65.1	128	1.08	0.13
55	Carson Palmer	6307	2004	2017	69.8	83	1.08	0.04
56	Marcus Mariota	1605	2015	2018	66.5	111	1.07	0.10
57	Frank Ryan	2133	1958	1970	75.1	31	1.07	-0.08
58	Jake Delhomme	2932	1999	2011	66.6	108	1.07	0.09
59	Brett Favre	10169	1991	2010	73.3	44	1.06	-0.05
60	Jeff Hostetler	2338	1985	1997	70	79	1.06	0.02
61	Bobby Layne	3700	1948	1962	70.1	78	1.06	0.01
62	Dave Krieg	5311	1980	1998	72.3	51	1.06	-0.03
63	Greg Landry	2300	1968	1984	73.6	41	1.06	-0.06
64	Phil Simms	4647	1979	1993	70.6	72	1.05	-0.01
65	Jay Schroeder	2808	1985	1994	62.9	154	1.05	0.14
66	Tom Flores	1715	1960	1969	73.1	46	1.05	-0.06
67	John Elway	7250	1983	1998	70.4	74	1.05	-0.01
68	Jim Everett	4923	1986	1997	68.8	91	1.05	0.02
69	Don Meredith	2308	1960	1968	71.6	59	1.05	-0.03
70	Neil Lomax	3153	1981	1988	74.9	34	1.05	-0.10
71	Wade Wilson	2428	1981	1998	66.9	105	1.05	0.06
72	Troy Aikman	4715	1989	2000	71.1	64	1.04	-0.03
73	Mark Rypien	2613	1988	2001	69.4	88	1.04	0.00
74	Jim Plunkett	3701	1971	1986	65.1	127	1.04	0.09
75	Jeff George	3967	1990	2001	69.7	84	1.04	0.00
76	Gary Danielson	1932	1976	1988	71.2	62	1.04	-0.04
77	Jeff Garcia	3676	1999	2009	74.3	37	1.04	-0.10
78	Brian Griese	2796	1998	2008	69.6	86	1.04	-0.01
79	Rodney Peete	2346	1989	2004	62.3	156	1.04	0.14
80	Mark Brunell	4640	1994	2011	71.9	56	1.04	-0.06
81	Cam Newton	3892	2011	2018	65.1	129	1.04	0.08
82	Jay Fiedler	1717	1995	2005	64.8	134	1.03	0.08
83	Charley Johnson	3392	1961	1975	67	104	1.03	0.04
84	Jack Kemp	3073	1957	1969	62.2	157	1.03	0.13
85	Steve McNair	4544	1995	2007	70.3	77	1.03	-0.04
86	Elvis Grbac	2445	1994	2001	68.5	94	1.03	0.00
87	Charlie Batch	1604	1998	2012	65.1	126	1.03	0.06
88	Billy Kilmer	2984	1961	1978	72.3	50	1.02	-0.08
89	Gus Frerotte	3106	1994	2008	61.9	159	1.02	0.12
90	David Garrard	2281	2002	2010	69.9	80	1.02	-0.03
91	Colin Kaepernick	1692	2011	2016	67.6	99	1.02	0.01
92	Jay Cutler	4920	2006	2017	66.5	109	1.02	0.03
93	Randall Cunningham	4289	1985	2001	72.1	54	1.02	-0.08
94	Bobby Hebert	3121	1985	1996	69.4	87	1.02	-0.03
95	Donovan McNabb	5374	1999	2011	71.3	61	1.02	-0.07
96	Jim McMahon	2573	1982	1996	69.7	85	1.02	-0.04
97	Tony Eason	1564	1983	1990	71.5	60	1.02	-0.08
98	Stan Humphries	2516	1989	1997	65.2	124	1.02	0.05
99	Vinny Testaverde	6701	1987	2007	64	143	1.01	0.07
100	Jim Hart	5076	1966	1984	66.1	114	1.01	0.03
101	Bill Kenney	2430	1980	1988	69.1	89	1.01	-0.03
102	Aaron Brooks	2963	2000	2006	65.2	123	1.01	0.04
103	Rich Gannon	4206	1987	2004	73.5	42	1.01	-0.12
104	Steve Bartkowski	3456	1975	1986	70.7	71	1.01	-0.07
105	Joe Theismann	3602	1974	1985	72.3	52	1.01	-0.10
106	Doug Flutie	2151	1986	2005	65.6	120	1.01	0.03
107	Michael Vick	3217	2001	2015	64.3	141	1.01	0.06
108	Mike Tomczak	2337	1985	1999	59.9	171	1.00	0.14
109	Babe Parilli	3330	1952	1969	65.7	119	1.00	0.02
110	Andy Dalton	3921	2011	2018	67.7	97	1.00	-0.02
111	Brian Sipe	3439	1974	1983	70.9	67	1.00	-0.08
112	Andrew Luck	3290	2012	2018	67.5	100	1.00	-0.02
113	Billy Wade	2523	1954	1966	70.8	69	1.00	-0.09
114	Norm Snead	4353	1961	1976	63.5	150	1.00	0.06
115	Frankie Albert	1564	1946	1952	81.8	9	1.00	-0.31
116	Richard Todd	2967	1976	1985	62.4	155	1.00	0.08
117	Ken O'Brien	3602	1984	1993	72	55	1.00	-0.11
118	Charlie Conerly	2833	1948	1961	75.7	28	0.99	-0.19
119	Matthew Stafford	5405	2009	2018	67.7	98	0.99	-0.03
120	Jeff Blake	3241	1992	2005	66.5	110	0.99	-0.01
121	Vince Ferragamo	1615	1977	1986	63.6	149	0.99	0.05
122	Brad Johnson	4326	1994	2008	70.4	73	0.99	-0.09
123	Bernie Kosar	3365	1985	1996	73	47	0.99	-0.14
124	Scott Mitchell	2346	1991	2001	64.6	137	0.99	0.03
125	Eli Manning	7972	2004	2018	65.2	125	0.99	0.02
126	Matt Hasselbeck	5330	1999	2015	66.8	106	0.99	-0.02
127	Neil O'Donnell	3229	1991	2003	71.1	65	0.99	-0.11
128	John Brodie	4491	1957	1973	70.9	68	0.98	-0.11
129	George Blanda	4007	1949	1975	67.4	101	0.98	-0.04
130	Jake Plummer	4350	1997	2006	62	158	0.98	0.07
131	Milt Plum	2419	1957	1969	70.7	70	0.98	-0.11
132	Jon Kitna	4442	1997	2011	64.3	139	0.97	0.01
133	Jim Harbaugh	3918	1987	2000	67.3	102	0.97	-0.05
134	Ron Jaworski	4117	1974	1989	67.8	95	0.97	-0.06
135	Erik Kramer	2299	1987	1999	65.8	118	0.97	-0.02
136	Cotton Davidson	1752	1954	1968	60.5	168	0.97	0.08
137	Drew Bledsoe	6717	1993	2006	65.1	130	0.97	-0.01
138	Nick Foles	1581	2012	2018	66.7	107	0.97	-0.04
139	Marc Wilson	2081	1980	1990	59.5	173	0.97	0.10
140	Eric Hipple	1546	1980	1989	61.6	161	0.97	0.06
141	Steve DeBerg	5024	1978	1998	67.3	103	0.96	-0.06
142	Jim Zorn	3149	1976	1987	64	144	0.96	0.00
143	Ryan Tannehill	2911	2012	2018	65.3	122	0.96	-0.03
144	Doug Williams	2507	1978	1989	63.7	148	0.96	0.00
145	Alex Smith	4941	2005	2018	67.8	96	0.95	-0.09
146	Tommy Kramer	3651	1977	1990	66.4	112	0.95	-0.06
147	Mike Livingston	1751	1968	1979	65.1	131	0.95	-0.04
148	Archie Manning	3642	1971	1984	66	115	0.94	-0.06
149	Chris Miller	2892	1987	1999	65.4	121	0.94	-0.05
150	Tim Couch	1714	1999	2003	63.2	153	0.94	-0.01
151	Tony Banks	2356	1996	2005	61.4	162	0.94	0.02
152	Ryan Fitzpatrick	4285	2005	2018	61.3	163	0.93	0.02
153	Kerry Collins	6261	1995	2011	60.6	167	0.93	0.03
154	Joe Ferguson	4519	1973	1990	65	132	0.93	-0.06
155	Byron Leftwich	1605	2003	2012	64.5	138	0.93	-0.06
156	Trent Dilfer	3172	1994	2007	58.2	175	0.93	0.07
157	Don Majkowski	1905	1987	1996	63.9	147	0.92	-0.04
158	Josh McCown	2628	2002	2018	61	165	0.92	0.01
159	Josh Freeman	2048	2009	2015	59.8	172	0.92	0.03
160	Jason Campbell	2518	2006	2014	64.9	133	0.92	-0.07
161	Case Keenum	1844	2012	2018	61.7	160	0.92	-0.01
162	Roman Gabriel	4498	1962	1977	73.6	40	0.91	-0.25
163	Kyle Orton	2712	2005	2014	63.9	146	0.91	-0.06
164	Bubby Brister	2212	1986	2000	63.5	151	0.91	-0.06
165	Joe Flacco	5670	2008	2018	64.1	142	0.91	-0.07
166	Bill Munson	1982	1964	1979	70.3	76	0.90	-0.20
167	Rex Grossman	1562	2003	2012	55.8	180	0.89	0.08
168	Chad Henne	1959	2008	2018	57.5	177	0.89	0.04
169	David Carr	2267	2002	2012	60.7	166	0.89	-0.03
170	Dave Brown	1634	1992	2001	56.6	179	0.88	0.05
171	Derek Anderson	1674	2006	2018	53.6	187	0.88	0.10
172	Tobin Rote	2907	1950	1966	63.9	145	0.88	-0.11
173	Mark Sanchez	2320	2009	2018	54.9	185	0.88	0.07
174	Blake Bortles	2632	2014	2018	57.8	176	0.88	0.02
175	Kordell Stewart	2358	1995	2005	59.2	174	0.88	-0.02
176	Derek Carr	2800	2014	2018	65.8	117	0.87	-0.15
177	Matt Cassel	2684	2005	2018	60.4	169	0.87	-0.05
178	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	1989	1999	57.3	178	0.86	0.00
179	Sam Bradford	2967	2010	2018	64.3	140	0.86	-0.15
180	Steve Bono	1701	1985	1999	64.7	136	0.84	-0.17
181	Dan Pastorini	3055	1971	1983	59.9	170	0.84	-0.08
182	Jack Trudeau	1644	1986	1995	55.1	183	0.82	-0.01
183	Frank Tripucka	1745	1949	1963	61.3	164	0.80	-0.16
184	Mike Pagel	1509	1982	1993	55.3	182	0.79	-0.05
185	Mark Malone	1648	1980	1989	54.3	186	0.79	-0.03
186	Rick Mirer	2043	1993	2003	52.4	189	0.78	0.00
187	Mike Phipps	1799	1970	1981	53.2	188	0.78	-0.02
188	Kyle Boller	1519	2003	2011	55.1	184	0.75	-0.11
189	Joey Harrington	2538	2002	2007	55.3	181	0.74	-0.11

Yards per Attempt stars

If you sort the table by the final column, who are the yards/attempt stars — i.e., the players who fare notably better in Y/A than, on average, they do in Cmp%/TD%/INT%?

Regular readers remember that Ed Brown is the career leader in yards per completion. He didn’t have a good completion percentage, threw a ton of interceptions, and wasn’t a good quarterback, but man could he sling it down the field (often to Harlon Hill). His remarkable Y/C average gives him a very good Y/A average even with a poor completion percentage, so Brown is the biggest outlier here. Did you know: Ed Brown has a better career yards/attempt average than Aaron Rodgers?

Steve Grogan, Lynn Dickey, and Jameis Winston are the next three passers who are Y/A superstars; Grogan and Winston have a similar but muted version of Brown’s story. Both Grogan and Winston were well below league average in completion percentage but well above league average in yards per attempt, thanks to typically top of the league level yards/completion averages. Dickey has a big interception problem, and he’s probably more thought of as an INT outlier than a Y/A outlier: he was above average in both TD% and CMP%, but his INT rate dragged down the averages of his non-Y/A components. The same could be said about Jay Schroeder, but his awful stat was completion percentage.

Rounding out this group is Joe Namath, who really excelled at net yards per attempt. Namath was remarkably efficient at getting the ball down the field — he lapped the field in this metric for a decade — and has one of the greatest sack rates and NY/A averages of all time. But his average TD% and poor INT% levels drag him out of the inner circle of HOF QBs.

Yards per Attempt underachievers

What about those QBs whose worst metric was Y/A? Frankie Albert was perfectly average when it came to Y/A, but had outstanding completion percentage, TD%, and INT% numbers. In that way, he was like a rich man’s Derek Carr or Sam Bradford — players with strong completion percentage and interception rate numbers, but struggled to get the ball down the field. The difference is Albert also had a stellar TD rate on top of excelling at the game manager stats.

Roman Gabriel is the second biggest outlier, but he’s really an INT% outlier; more on him later. Sammy Baugh is similar: he had historically great completion percentage and interception rate numbers, and then merely “great” TD% and yards/attempt numbers.

Seeing Joe Montana on there was a bit surprising to me, but like Baugh, yards/attempt just happens to be his worst metric. In the 1980s, he and Ken Anderson were well ahead of the entire league in completion percentage, and Montana also ranked 2nd in INT rate and in the top 5 of 34 qualifying passers in TD rate. But yards/attempt? Montana ranked “only” 5th, a hair behind Grogan. Montana was about as dominant as it gets, but yards/attempt was not his category.

What stands out to you?

Tagged as: Passer Rating

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