Previous post:

Next post:

A Starting Point for Running Back Projections in 2014 (FBG)

by Chase Stuart on May 31, 2014

in Fantasy, Rushing

Last year, I provided a starting point for my running back projections. The idea is pretty simple: some fantasy statistics are much more repeatable, or sticky, than others. Over at Footballguys.com, I used the following formula to help isolate those factors:

1) Rushing Yards (R^2 = 0.47). The best-fit formula to predict rushing yards is:

-731 + 3.73 * Rush Attempts + 180 * Yards/Rush

2) Receptions (R^2 = 0.42). The best-fit formula to predict receptions is:

11.1 + 0.39 * Receptions + 0.032 * Receiving Yards

3) Receiving Yards (R^2 = 0.38). The best-fit formula to predict receiving yards is:

83.7 + 1.65 * Receptions + 0.46 * Receiving Yards

4) Rushing Touchdowns (R^2 = 0.29). The best-fit formula to predict rushing touchdowns is:

0.1 + 0.0037 * Rushing Yards + 0.35 * Rushing Touchdowns

5) Receiving Touchdowns (R^2 = 0.23). The best-fit formula to predict receiving touchdowns is:

0.1 + 0.0022 * Receiving Yards + 0.25 * Receiving Touchdowns

Using these formulas, we can come up with a good starting point for your 2014 running back projections.

You can read the full article here.

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Bryan Frye May 31, 2014 at 5:07 pm

Forgive me if you have already done this, but can we expect an article on underperformers and overperformers based on these formulas? Obviously, the article wouldn’t come till the end of the season, but it could be an interesting read.

Reply

Chase Stuart June 1, 2014 at 11:14 am

Hmm. Interesting. One could do that based on my projections from 2013, although I’d be a bit terrified to see those results :)

Reply

Bryan Frye June 1, 2014 at 2:23 pm

Well, from super popular guys like Peter King, down to virtually unknown guys like me, it seems we are all wrong more often than we are right…about most things. Doesn’t mean it isn’t fun to delve deeper into the sport we love!

Reply

Chase Stuart June 1, 2014 at 9:13 pm

Heh. We can put it on the ever-growing to-do list.

Reply

Leave a Comment

You can use these HTML tags and attributes: <strong> <em> <pre> <code> <a href="" title="">