Last year, I provided a starting point for my running back projections. The idea is pretty simple: some fantasy statistics are much more repeatable, or sticky, than others. Over at Footballguys.com, I used the following formula to help isolate those factors:
1) Rushing Yards (R^2 = 0.47). The best-fit formula to predict rushing yards is:
-731 + 3.73 * Rush Attempts + 180 * Yards/Rush
2) Receptions (R^2 = 0.42). The best-fit formula to predict receptions is:
11.1 + 0.39 * Receptions + 0.032 * Receiving Yards
3) Receiving Yards (R^2 = 0.38). The best-fit formula to predict receiving yards is:
83.7 + 1.65 * Receptions + 0.46 * Receiving Yards
4) Rushing Touchdowns (R^2 = 0.29). The best-fit formula to predict rushing touchdowns is:
0.1 + 0.0037 * Rushing Yards + 0.35 * Rushing Touchdowns
5) Receiving Touchdowns (R^2 = 0.23). The best-fit formula to predict receiving touchdowns is:
0.1 + 0.0022 * Receiving Yards + 0.25 * Receiving Touchdowns
Using these formulas, we can come up with a good starting point for your 2014 running back projections.
You can read the full article here.