A look at the best receivers to change teams

The craziness continues, with Wes Welker signing with the Denver Broncos being the big story of day two of the league year. The Patriots responded by signing Danny Amendola, the least surprising move since Brandon Lloyd joined Josh McDaniels in New England last year. Arguably the biggest move so far this week has been Mike Wallace joining Dolphins, while Greg Jennings still seems likely to move on from Green Bay. Throw in Percy Harvin to Seattle and Anquan Boldin to San Francisco, and we’re seeing a lot of movement among the top receivers this year. Which gives me an opportunity to do a quick data dump on the best receivers to ever switch teams.

In some ways, it’s hard to find a comparable receiver to Welker. He’s been so productive for so long that it’s easy to be unimpressed with the 118 catches, 1,354 yards, and six touchdowns he had last year, but no receiver had ever switched teams after catching more than 101 catches in a season. Only two receivers — Muhsin Muhammad and Yancey Thigpen — gained more receiving yards in a season than Welker did in 2012 and then played for a new team the next year.

But Welker’s amazingly unique numbers are a product of playing in a very pass-friendly environment on a team that threw 641 passes last year. To compare players across systems and eras, I came up with a wide receiver ranking system last month. That will allow us to look at the best receivers to switch teams and not just the ones from the last couple of decades. For some perspective, Welker ranked 8th among wide receivers last season, although that’s without any Tom Brady-adjustment.

The table below contains a lot of information. It shows receivers who added over 200 yards of value over average in Year N and then played for a new team in Year N+1. For each player, I’ve listed his old team, his age in Year N, some traditional statistics, the amount of value added by the receiver, and his rank among wide receivers. Then starting in the “N+1 tm” category, we see his new team, his statistics in the new season, how much value he added in Year N+1 and his rank in that season.

Name	Yr	Tm	Age	G	Rec	Yd	TD	Val	Rk	N+1 tm	G	Rec	Yd	TD	Val	Rk
Yancey Thigpen	1997	pit	28	16	79	1398	7	842	1	oti	9	38	493	3	-58	36
Muhsin Muhammad	2004	car	31	16	93	1405	16	748	3	chi	15	64	750	4	168	23
Buddy Dial	1963	pit	26	14	60	1295	9	703	1	dal	10	11	178	0	-722	33
John Jefferson	1980	sdg	24	16	82	1340	13	666	1	gnb	13	39	632	4	0	29
Harold Jackson	1972	phi	26	14	62	1048	4	658	3	ram	14	40	874	13	911	1
Roy Jefferson	1969	pit	26	14	67	1079	9	641	1	clt	14	44	749	7	223	19
Jeff Graham	1995	chi	26	16	82	1301	4	634	10	nyj	11	50	788	6	44	28
Laveranues Coles	2002	nyj	25	16	89	1264	5	590	5	was	16	82	1204	6	472	12
Brandon Marshall	2009	den	25	15	101	1120	10	567	6	mia	14	86	1014	3	272	12
Terrell Owens	2003	sfo	30	15	80	1102	9	563	10	phi	14	77	1200	14	570	5
Keyshawn Johnson	1999	nyj	27	16	89	1170	8	558	7	tam	16	71	874	8	355	19
Don Looney	1940	phi	23	11	58	707	4	520	2	pit	9	10	186	1	67	8
Wes Welker	2012	nwe	31	16	118	1354	6	484	8	den
Art Powell	1966	rai	29	14	53	1026	11	479	4	buf	6	20	346	4	90	8
R.C. Owens	1961	sfo	28	14	55	1032	5	474	6	clt	14	25	307	2	-951	37
Ron Jessie	1974	det	26	12	54	761	3	469	3	ram	14	41	547	3	55	23
Brandon Marshall	2011	mia	27	16	81	1214	6	468	6	chi	16	118	1508	11	1067	1
Anthony Miller	1993	sdg	28	16	84	1162	7	467	6	den	16	60	1107	5	-67	30
Bob Mann	1949	det	25	12	66	1014	4	457	2	gnb	3	6	89	1	-153	17
Terrell Owens	2005	phi	32	7	47	763	6	442	11	dal	16	85	1180	13	609	4
Paul Warfield	1969	cle	27	14	42	886	10	420	8	mia	11	28	703	6	488	8
Darrell Jackson	2006	sea	28	13	63	956	10	417	11	sfo	15	46	497	3	-436	105
Santonio Holmes	2009	pit	25	16	79	1248	5	415	14	nyj	12	52	746	6	144	22
Bill Hewitt	1936	chi	27	12	15	358	6	409	2	phi	11	16	197	5	0	10
Tony Martin	1998	atl	33	16	66	1181	6	405	8	mia	16	67	1037	5	-13	33
Keenan McCardell	2003	tam	33	16	84	1174	8	393	15	sdg	7	31	393	1	46	28
Percy Harvin	2012	min	24	9	62	677	3	362	14	sea
Quinn Early	1995	nor	30	16	81	1087	8	359	17	buf	16	50	798	4	-156	46
Harold Jackson	1977	ram	31	14	48	666	6	358	10	nwe	16	37	743	6	207	14
Willard Dewveall	1960	chi	24	12	43	804	5	351	10	oti	7	12	200	3	-227	16
Peerless Price	2002	buf	26	16	94	1252	9	332	14	atl	16	64	838	3	122	25
Otto Stowe	1973	dal	24	7	23	389	6	325	12	den	8	2	9	1	-428	73
Bob Grim	1971	min	26	14	45	691	7	321	8	nyg	13	5	67	1	-629	92
Al Baldwin	1949	bba	26	12	53	719	7	306	2	gnb	12	28	555	3	-348	23
Lance Rentzel	1970	dal	27	11	28	556	5	296	13	ram	14	38	534	5	-27	28
Art Powell	1962	nyj	25	14	64	1130	8	288	3	rai	14	73	1304	16	632	2
Bert Emanuel	1997	atl	27	16	65	991	9	288	18	tam	11	41	636	2	38	28
Plaxico Burress	2004	pit	27	11	35	698	5	287	17	nyg	16	76	1214	7	367	13
John Gilliam	1971	crd	26	14	42	837	3	277	12	min	14	47	1035	7	665	1
Clyde Goodnight	1948	gnb	24	8	28	448	3	274	4	was	10	11	150	0	-898	39
Keenan McCardell	2001	jax	31	16	93	1110	6	263	19	tam	14	61	670	6	-159	48
Bill Schroeder	2001	gnb	30	14	53	918	9	246	20	det	14	36	595	5	-357	73
Gary Clark	1992	was	30	16	64	912	5	242	10	crd	14	63	818	4	188	18
Eric Martin	1993	nor	32	16	66	950	3	241	11	kan	10	21	307	1	-484	80
Terrell Owens	2008	dal	35	16	69	1052	10	233	17	buf	16	55	829	5	100	26
Henry Ellard	1993	ram	32	16	61	945	2	227	12	was	16	74	1397	6	576	5
J.D. Hill	1975	buf	27	14	36	667	7	226	11	det	1	1	2	0	-58	38
Roy Jefferson	1970	clt	27	14	44	749	7	223	19	was	14	47	701	4	302	9
Eggs Manske	1936	phi	24	12	17	325	0	218	4	chi	11	9	225	3	91	7
Tony Bova	1943	phi	26	10	17	419	5	214	2	crd	9	19	287	2	-73	15
Jim Benton	1942	ram	26	9	23	345	1	212	3	chi	9	13	235	3	-85	10
Andre Rison	1994	atl	27	15	81	1088	8	210	13	cle	16	47	701	3	-267	59
Rob Moore	1994	nyj	26	16	78	1010	6	209	14	crd	15	63	907	5	82	26
Anquan Boldin	2009	crd	29	15	84	1024	4	207	20	rav	16	64	837	7	40	30
Eric Moulds	2005	buf	32	15	81	816	4	203	22	htx	16	57	557	1	-350	85
Derrick Alexander	1997	rav	26	15	65	1009	9	202	21	kan	15	54	992	4	-54	35
Billy Parks	1971	sdg	23	10	41	609	4	202	14	dal	12	18	298	1	-319	69

The gold standard was set by Harold Jackson, who ranked as the #3 receiver in 1972 with the Eagles and then as the top receiver in the league with the Rams in ’73. Then last year, Brandon Marshall had a dominant season in his first year in Chicago. While Marshall (who had an easier transition because he was reunited with Jay Cutler) and Terrell Owens (a couple of times) had immediate success after switching teams, that’s still more the exception than the rule (of course, this ignores players like Randy Moss in 2006-07, because he was too unproductive in Oakland to make the cut-off). There’s no reason to think Welker will bust like Muhammad and Thigpen, but it’s risky to expect business as usual when receivers switch teams. Few positions are as heavily dependent on the players around them as wide receiver, and there is a learning curve involved when dealing with a new team, new coach, new system, and new quarterback. Making matters worse, these types of wide receivers are usually acquired by a poor passing team that expects the new receiver to be the savior. On the other side of the coin, generally speaking, the team letting the receiver move on usually has a reason for doing so.

Of course, few of those factors apply when talking about Welker in Denver. He’ll be playing with Peyton Manning and can take over the role filled by Brandon Stokley last year. Manning loves throwing to his inside receiver and a player that runs precise routes and can dominate the short and intermediate areas of the field fits Manning’s game well. I doubt Welker comes close to the numbers he produced in New England simply because there are too many talented mouths to feed (Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas aren’t going anywhere) in Denver. But Welker doesn’t need to put up monster numbers in 2013 to make the move pay off for the Broncos. As Mike Tanier noted, the signing will only slightly upgrade the Denver offense, but should significantly hinder the Patriots. In an AFC that appears to feature just two heavyweights, that’s more than enough to make Denver the clear frontrunner to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVIII. Then the Broncos capped off the day by adding Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. It’s early on, but it’s been a good week for Denver so far.

Tagged as: Wes Welker